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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It will cause China to undertake an incompetent, unprovoked invasion of Taiwan where the invaders carry out brutal crimes against the civilian population? How does American intervention improve the outcome for Taiwan or the people living in it? At best, at absolute best, it becomes another Ukraine; and Ukraine has been destroyed as a nation. Its people will live in destitution and migration for decades. You can pretend to yourself all you want that the PRC is going to do triple g genocide in Taiwan if it wins, and therefore burning the country to bleed the PRC is worth it in the end. But it's fantasy, a motivated belief to justify american imperialism. The global south is not our plaything. And the people of Taiwan should not be ablative shielding for American interests in Asia unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 14:03
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Nobody forced China to start disappearing obscure booksellers in Hong Kong in a rolling sequence of events that thoroughly discredited the appeal of its One Country Two Systems pitch to Taiwan Obscure bookshops presented approximately 0% existential threat to Chinese core interests. Taiwan is a place where Cheng Nan-jung (who self-immolated in protest of censorship) is valourized. The problem is that Beijing just views that it isn't important to them so it can't be important to anyone else. That kind of insensitivity is self-sabotaging for governing any restive region, never mind one not actually already governed from the center.
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Jul 31, 2022 14:06
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Only a fool would want a war, but when China rattles its sabers, it seems rational for Taiwan to rattle its shields. It's a two-way street. If China makes too many threats unanswered, it might manage to talk itself into pulling the trigger on an invasion.
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Jul 31, 2022 14:28
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url posted:This is a tricky position to maintain given that the status quo is being unilaterally undermined. Indeed and the US should stop undermining it.
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Jul 31, 2022 15:05
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Red and Black posted:Indeed and the US should stop undermining it. Oh dear. That's a very poor quality take. Good luck with that.
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Jul 31, 2022 15:15
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url posted:This is a tricky position to maintain given that the status quo is being unilaterally undermined. Red and Black posted:Indeed and the US should stop undermining it. url posted:Oh dear. It would be much more informative to actually make the case as to why the US/China is the one unilaterally undermining the status quo rather than quipping at each other.
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Jul 31, 2022 15:31
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Rust Martialis posted:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line correct me if i'm wrong, but doesn't taiwan also claim the nine dash line?
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Jul 31, 2022 15:42
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Stringent posted:correct me if i'm wrong, but doesn't taiwan also claim the nine dash line? Of course.
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Jul 31, 2022 16:33
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In non-Core-Interests topics: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1553593292352536576 https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1553593313605070848 Latter has a full-throated defense of "NO, BUILD MORE HOUSING! RAISE MORE DEBT!" view which may have a renaissance given current difficulties, in a very it's-2014-all-over-again way (the "but Chinese urban housing does not have the floor area of Korean or Japanese contemporary urban housing, so there's plenty more room to go" observation is true, but it's also the case that e.g. Guangdong is not as rich as Korea or Japan is today per capita either, but more akin to Korea circa the 1990s) ronya fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 17:51
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unwantedplatypus posted:I don't have a strong opinion on Taiwan other than the US is using the country to threaten China and should withdraw troops and funding. Seems that's the case with a lot of people in here: there's no interest or understanding of cross-straits issues beyond "US supports X, US is bad, therefore not-X is good". I'd like to Daduzi fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 18:39
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Daduzi posted:Seems that's the case with a lot of people in here: there's no interest or understanding of cross-straits issues beyond "US supports X, US is bad, therefore not-X is good". I'm not saying Taiwan is bad. I'm not saying the PRC is good. I'm saying the US should stop providing it military and financial aid. I have not made any claims w/r/t what Taiwan or China should do. This is classic projection, because the image of Taiwan as good and PRC as bad is commonly held and reinforced in media. My perspective is focused on the US because I'm much more knowledgeable on the US than on Taiwan or China. Nonetheless, I'm familiar enough with this specific issue to know that these popular conceptions of the situation are misrepresentations. unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 19:06
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it'd certainly be a bit awkward after providing vigorous military and financial aid to China for the reform-and-opening-up period
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Jul 31, 2022 19:16
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unwantedplatypus posted:I'm not saying Taiwan is bad. I'm not saying the PRC is good. I'm saying the US should stop providing it military and financial aid. I have not made any claims w/r/t what Taiwan or China should do. Question, if Taiwan wants that aid, do you think Taiwan's wishes should be ignored?
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Jul 31, 2022 19:39
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Red and Black posted:The status quo is actually a brilliant compromise. Basically all nations and the UN recognize Taiwan is a part of China. Which allows China to save face and hold out hope for peaceful reunification. On the other hand Taiwan enjoys de facto independence. It’s a win for everyone. It does not. This continues to be one of the main misunderstandings of the "One China" policies that exist in governments throughout the world. It has been addressed before in this thread yet this misunderstanding remains. The US policy for example explicitly refuses to recognize the PRC claim that Taiwan is a part of 'China' despite consistent outrage by the PRC. The formal term used is "acknowledge" - not "recognize". The Chinese version of the 3 communiques for example alters the wording from "acknowledge" to "recognize" and the US government since the late 70s has explicitly maintained that the english version of the text is what they agree to. This position is mirrored across many major governments around the world that are not Chinese allies or partners (ie Russia). While France and the UK among others have affirmed the "One China Principle" (which explicitly says Taiwan is a part of China), other major allies of the US maintain an ambiguous stance as well. Canada for example maintains the exact wording the Americans use when it comes to Taiwan. It acknowledges the claim but does not recognize it to be a legal one. Germany's switch from the ROC to the PRC in 1972 omits the entire Taiwan clause because Beijing didn't want to awkwardly undermine the GDR at the time. Since then, it has at times taken the PRC's view and at others outright ignored it and never openly clarified how it views the legal status of Taiwan's territory. Japan, Australia, and Poland are other countries that openly acknowledge the PRC's territory claims only. India which supported the One China Principle in the 50s has since suspended support on that issue given that China refuses to reciprocate on the One India Issue. Yet more nations do not have explicit positions that name Taiwan as a part of China as part of a vague "One China Policy". Most nations fall into this last category. You wouldn't know it from the MFA in China though since they maliciously treat any nation's One China Policy as the PRC's One China Principle which does explicitly state Taiwan is a part of China (and thus the PRC should have sovereign control). The compromise is only "brilliant" insofar as these stances were adopted when everyone knew China couldn't actually take over Taiwan by force and/or the US would likely step in. Now that the issue is coming to the forefront, China continually tries to pin everyone else down on accepting its stance while most major powers (including Western countries which originally agreed to the One China Principle stance) continue to talk out of both sides of their mouths. Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:American foreign policy has been clear for seventy years that we support Taiwan because we consider it a viable threat to China; why be upset that China agrees with our assessment? No one, not even the PRC, considers Taiwan to be a "viable threat". unwantedplatypus posted:How does American intervention improve the outcome for Taiwan or the people living in it? At best, at absolute best, it becomes another Ukraine; and Ukraine has been destroyed as a nation. Its people will live in destitution and migration for decades. You can pretend to yourself all you want that the PRC is going to do triple g genocide in Taiwan if it wins, and therefore burning the country to bleed the PRC is worth it in the end. But it's fantasy, a motivated belief to justify american imperialism. The global south is not our plaything. And the people of Taiwan should not be ablative shielding for American interests in Asia The mere possibility of American intervention is what allows Taipei to keep on chugging. The moment the US moves off of TRA (1979), Taipei and the rest of the world will know the gig is up. You assume war is the only outcome. It is not. MikeC fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 19:45
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I've said this before but US conduct with regards to its Asian partners is really not novel: eventually the US will be unable to sustain a domestic consensus to subsidize its partners through GSP and MFN trade policy, and then it will pull a Plaza Accords and this would be done generally at the loud cheering of the US left. Then the American public moves on and retains no memory of how bitterly those Asian partners may remember the episode If we wind back to long-term Chinese grievances and suspicions that the US is fundamentally opposed to Chinese development, the US's accusations of currency manipulation long predate Trump - they date all the way back to Clinton in 1992 Now obviously, on the US part, China is much bigger than Thailand or such and hence the effect of Chinese exports is that much greater, and US domestic patience that much shorter. So China got the rugpull that much earlier in its Asian developmental model experience. ronya fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 19:46
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unwantedplatypus posted:I'm not saying Taiwan is bad. I'm not saying the PRC is good. I'm saying the US should stop providing it military and financial aid. I have not made any claims w/r/t what Taiwan or China should do. Again, you're coming at this from a very US-centric point of view. My point is that there's a lot more fundamental, and frankly a lot more interesting, factors at play. It's great that you've discovered US foreign policy is a bit poo poo. I can see you're really excited about this discovery and keen to share it. But not everything has to be seen through a the lens of US foreign policy. Maybe, just maybe, a dispute between two Mandarin-speaking, Han-majority de-facto states might be better seen through a more China-centric framework.
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Jul 31, 2022 21:15
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Daduzi posted:Maybe, just maybe, a dispute between two Mandarin-speaking, Han-majority de-facto states might be better seen through a more China-centric framework. would love to honestly.
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Jul 31, 2022 21:21
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Daduzi posted:Again, you're coming at this from a very US-centric point of view. My point is that there's a lot more fundamental, and frankly a lot more interesting, factors at play. It's great that you've discovered US foreign policy is a bit poo poo. I can see you're really excited about this discovery and keen to share it. But not everything has to be seen through a the lens of US foreign policy. Maybe, just maybe, a dispute between two Mandarin-speaking, Han-majority de-facto states might be better seen through a more China-centric framework. As someone who lived in Taiwan, has close friends there still, and would honestly rather live there than any other place on Earth if I had a choice: very much this. Handwaving away the rights and existence of a people you know nothing about because of some Great Game bullshit doesn't make you a good socialist, it makes you a dick.
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Jul 31, 2022 23:20
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ronya posted:it'd certainly be a bit awkward after providing vigorous military and financial aid to China for the reform-and-opening-up period Awkward or not, it ought to be done SpiritOfLenin posted:Question, if Taiwan wants that aid, do you think Taiwan's wishes should be ignored? For military aid? Yes MikeC posted:
Franks Happy Place posted:
Pretty sure the Taiwanese people will still exist and have stable living standards if the PRC takes over. It’s not some moral duty of the US armed forces to make sure as many people live in a liberal democracy as possible. And treating it that way kills way more than it saves.
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Jul 31, 2022 23:51
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unwantedplatypus posted:US’s rebel province is Cuba While Cuba is in the hearts and minds of those sharing a certain political persuasion, the US has always recognized the sovereignty of Cuba since they broke off as a protectorate, even if the US considers the dictatorship to be illegitimate. This was communicated during the restoration of the US Embassy Havana (no longer a Special Interests Section). And China has extensive ties with Cuba, far more politically official than what the US has with Taiwan. There is no "One China Policy" equivalent for Cuba. So no, not exactly sure what you're getting at, here.
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Aug 1, 2022 00:02
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The US would also probably have "stable" living standards if we surrendered all sovereignty to China right now for no particular reason so I guess we should do that too?
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Aug 1, 2022 00:05
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unwantedplatypus posted:Even if I were to concede that this constitutes imperialism; and I don't think it does. This is an order of magnitude less severe than the Taiwan situation from the US perspective. China is not looking to economically subjugate the population of Taiwan. It's not going to relocate their industry, turn them into permanent debtors, etc. You're comparing China wanting reunification of historically connected population and wanting greater control over their region's trade to the US using Taiwan to weaken china and exert control over a region half a world away. You are decrying the former as imperialism. How's this for imperialism: https://twitter.com/mfa_china/status/1552682927607398400 These "1000 Chinese and international NGO's"? Here's the list they published of 923 of them: https://english.news.cn/20220727/971b9bb3f5e9469a9da5b23cb225eb3e/c.html Wonder what their goals are in trying to mask all these CCP controlled organizations for a common purpose?
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Aug 1, 2022 00:07
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i fly airplanes posted:While Cuba is in the hearts and minds of those sharing a certain political persuasion, the US has always recognized the sovereignty of Cuba since they broke off as a protectorate, even if the US considers the dictatorship to be illegitimate. This was communicated during the restoration of the US Embassy Havana (no longer a Special Interests Section). i agree it's a terrible analogy. a more appropriate one would be if the confederates holed up in florida or somewhere, declared it a sovereign nation and kept it that way via european military assistance.
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Aug 1, 2022 00:08
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Edit: bah, nevermind
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Aug 1, 2022 00:11
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I'm not sure that arguing over which analogy is most appropriate is very productive compared to discussing specifics of the actual China-Taiwan relationship.Clarste posted:Edit: bah, nevermind thanks
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Aug 1, 2022 00:13
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i fly airplanes posted:While Cuba is in the hearts and minds of those sharing a certain political persuasion, the US has always recognized the sovereignty of Cuba since they broke off as a protectorate, even if the US considers the dictatorship to be illegitimate. This was communicated during the restoration of the US Embassy Havana (no longer a Special Interests Section). I was being a little tongue-in-cheek there. Nonetheless ever since the revolution the US has been trying to bring Cuba back on side. The US still embargoes Cuba and stirs the pot there. Of course the specifics are different because these are different countries. It’s not an issue to recognize Cuba’s sovereignty because they were never going to be an integrated part of the US. They were a colony. And forces within the US govt would like to see them become a colony again. Integrating them into the country would give Cubans a bunch of rights and political power unacceptable to a certain flavor of American.
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Aug 1, 2022 00:14
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unwantedplatypus posted:Taiwan is such a politically free, popular-will driven country you get to choose between the literal Kuomintang or the other guys. Yay democracy! They are -- Taiwan is the only country in Asia where same sex marriage is legal, in a region dominated by social conservatism. Their democracy is very healthy; Taiwanese also self identify as a nation and not as Mainland Chinese. What's wrong with allowing this, and why do you want to deny them this agency? And judging from your previous comments, why do you prefer to see this country as solely an instrument to be manipulated by US foreign policy?
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Aug 1, 2022 00:20
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The implication is that in "the state of nature" outside of US influence, China would simply have swallowed it up through force of arms long ago and that's good because the US is bad. This is also why Imperial Japan should still be ruling Korea, presumably.
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Aug 1, 2022 00:26
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Clarste posted:The implication is that in "the state of nature" outside of US influence, China would simply have swallowed it up through force of arms long ago and that's good because the US is bad. This is also why Imperial Japan should still be ruling Korea, presumably. Or had there not been the Tehran Conference between the Allied Powers, Manchukuo would never have been taken over, North Korea wouldn't exist, and probably neither the PRC.
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Aug 1, 2022 00:37
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i fly airplanes posted:
Not giving them weapons isn't "denying them agency". If Taiwan's continued existence is dependent upon US military aid, then de facto they are subordinated to US desires and whims. That's how something's existence being dependent upon you works.
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Aug 1, 2022 00:41
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unwantedplatypus posted:Not giving them weapons isn't "denying them agency". If Taiwan's continued existence is dependent upon US military aid, then de facto they are subordinated to US desires and whims. That's how something's existence being dependent upon you works. Do you realize that Taiwan is an economic giant and responsible for the majority of the world's semiconductors? This isn't military aid: Taiwan is purchasing arms from the US. But you're so close. Why do you think Taiwan's continued existence is dependent on their national security?
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Aug 1, 2022 00:49
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i fly airplanes posted:Do you realize that Taiwan is an economic giant and responsible for the majority of the world's semiconductors? This isn't military aid: Taiwan is purchasing arms from the US. We have military bases on their soil. We will go to war with China if they attack Taiwan. This goes above simply purchasing arms. And I'm well aware that China may invade Taiwan if the US withdraws. I still think it should withdraw. unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Aug 1, 2022 |
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Aug 1, 2022 01:12
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Clarste posted:The US would also probably have "stable" living standards if we surrendered all sovereignty to China right now for no particular reason so I guess we should do that too? I mean it couldn't hurt. At least everyone might be able to get some healthcare?
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Aug 1, 2022 01:13
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unwantedplatypus posted:We have military bases on their soil. We will go to war with China if they attack Taiwan. This goes above simply purchasing arms. And I'm well aware that China may invade Taiwan if the US withdraws. I still think it should withdraw. unwantedplatypus posted:Seeing every geopolitical problem as a call to action for the US is exactly how you get Libya , Afghanistan, Iraq, and every other one of our imperial blunders and atrocities of the last century. In addition, US aid in Taiwan will have the same effect as US aid to Ukraine. It will turn a short war into a long one. And long wars can ruin a country and it's people. And lastly, frankly, I'd like to see the military budget cut to the bone and spent internally. That's much better bang for your buck when it comes to actually helping people. unwantedplatypus posted:Yes, liberal democracy is a failing system. It neither represents the will of the populace nor responds effectively to crises. So let me get this straight -- you see liberal democracy as a failure, but you are also against "imperial blunders and atrocities of the last century". You also have no problem having Taiwan being invaded by an imperial power, against their will. Like Ukraine: and in fact, you think the bad guy in the Ukraine conflict is the US -- because we are "prolonging" the war with military aid for Zelensky. Are you trolling?
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Aug 1, 2022 01:25
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In slightly un-related news, there is going to be a vote in Nov. in Taiwan to lower the voting age from 20 to 18. The New Power Party (NPP) are the youth-oriented progressive party and got its start in the 2014 Sunflower protests. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/07/30/2003782671 quote:The New Power Party (NPP) yesterday launched a campaign to rally support for a referendum on lowering the voting age that is to be held on Nov. 26 alongside the local elections.
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Aug 1, 2022 01:44
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Ukraine is an excellent example. For the purpose of defending liberal democracy and stopping a war of aggression half the world over; we've decided to gently caress the world's economy with a sanction's regime and have flooded Ukraine with weapons. Ukraine may be being destroyed more and more as the war goes on, but we've prevented some borders on a map from being changed. These weapons will find their way elsewhere with time. And what has that actually done for the people of Ukraine? What material good? Taiwan is a similar example. Unless we want to launch the nukes for it, it's not a place we can realistically defend if the PRC wants it bad enough without just turning it into more of a hellish warzone than it would already be. Maybe you can argue the PRC is imperialist in the same way the Ottoman Empire was imperialist. Its not imperialist in the way, for example, the British empire was or the current American empire is. That's the distinction I want to make, and the one that matters to me. The scale and scope of their ambitions matters. Do note, nowhere here have I said "The PRC is good" or "Russia is good". unwantedplatypus fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Aug 1, 2022 |
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Aug 1, 2022 01:54
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unwantedplatypus posted:And what has that actually done for the people of Ukraine? What material good? Do you think Ukrainians want what you do, which is to surrender immediately to Putin as fast as possible to stop the destruction and suffering? And that they want the West to not sanction him to make sure the "global economy" doesn't go down the gutter? (I'm surprised you even care about this one.) quote:Do note, nowhere here have I said "The PRC is good" or "Russia is good". I think it's been proven pretty clear the last two pages of your posts that you're bootlicking for these autocratic regimes.
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Aug 1, 2022 02:00
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If we're now to the point of hurling insults and extended comparisons to Ukraine it might be best if this discussion either wrapped up or returned to discussing the China-Taiwan relationship, Pelosi's visit, etc.
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Aug 1, 2022 02:03
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some plague rats posted:I mean it couldn't hurt. At least everyone might be able to get some healthcare? Taiwan has way better healthcare than the mainland, so actually the US would be best off giving up sovereignty to Taiwan by that metric. Would probably also speed up the spread of Din Tai Fung so I'm now 100% behind this plan.
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Aug 1, 2022 02:36
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some plague rats posted:I mean it couldn't hurt. At least everyone might be able to get some healthcare? Are you suggesting that China has universal healthcare
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Aug 1, 2022 03:04
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