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nine-gear crow posted:So what's it say that an abortion ban went down in flames in loving Kansas when put to a popular vote? Hopefully that the blood gargling psychopath wing of the Republican party is going to get drubbed in the upcoming elections, but we'll see. In other news at least the Senate Reps were bullied into voting for the burn pit veteran's health care bill after being roundly mocked/shamed by John Stewart and various veteran's groups.
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Aug 3, 2022 03:58
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:the fact that Trump got soft-couped repeatedly over the course of his presidency probably helped us avert some real horrorshows, but it also taught the DoD that they can tell the President to gently caress off and he has no choice but to meekly accept it I've been trying to follow the conversation, but I'm still confused. So back to your original point, are you complaining that humans have their own agency? I don't even know what your point is. Anyone can disobey anyone, but the follow up/repercussions is what can vary and what is impactful. The president can fire the Secretary of Defense. Whether the military would turn against the president and continue to obey the fired Secretary of Defense in that situation is a separate question. And that never seemed to even come close to happening under Trump. Kalit fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Aug 3, 2022 |
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Aug 3, 2022 04:00
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basically he's saying its kind of a worrying precedent that the bureaucratic state can just ignore the president if they think the president is being really loving stupid. that the president was, in fact, really loving stupid at the time softens the worry, but the precedent is still there.
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Aug 3, 2022 04:04
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nine-gear crow posted:So what's it say that an abortion ban went down in flames in loving Kansas when put to a popular vote? Maybe Kansas will refind it's leftist roots
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Aug 3, 2022 04:08
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nine-gear crow posted:So what's it say that an abortion ban went down in flames in loving Kansas when put to a popular vote? It'll be interesting to see what the results are vs what the polling was indicating. I think it was basically saying things looked even?
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Aug 3, 2022 04:11
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Jaxyon posted:Maybe Kansas will refind it's leftist roots It's possible, I guess, but I think a lot of it was that a lot of the backers of the Amendment (which says that the Kansas legislature is allowed to pass new abortion restrictions) really weren't that clear on what the end goal was, and what sort of restrictions they wanted to see passed, and a lot of the pro-life voters weren't that pro-life....they supported restrictions on abortion but not a total ban, which people were afraid the amendment would lead to.
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Aug 3, 2022 04:26
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Lemming posted:It'll be interesting to see what the results are vs what the polling was indicating. I think it was basically saying things looked even? It was like 47-43 'no don't ban abortion'
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Aug 3, 2022 04:30
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I think stuff like the pregnant 10 year old going around are actually having an effect on a lot of people who thought they're obviously just going to ban whatever they think abortion is in their head, ie something feckless whores do to avoid responsibility, and get cold feet when they actually see what it means in practice.
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Aug 3, 2022 04:34
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Jaxyon posted:Maybe Kansas will refind it's leftist roots Currently the state has a GOP supermajority in both chambers and the gov race for Nov is a tossup so I wouldn't hold my breath. Yes the amendment failed but the GOP could pass an abortion ban over even a governor's veto any time they want. I'm guessing they'll wait until Jan to do so. The vote is surprising but not too surprising. A poo poo ton of the people (white women) who voted against the amendment today will go right back to voting straight ticket R in Nov. Racism/bigotry is more important to them than their bodily autonomy. They'll vote to protect abortion as a single issue, but it's not enough of a reason to support giving money to minorities. FLIPADELPHIA fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Aug 3, 2022 |
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Aug 3, 2022 04:42
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Oracle posted:It was like 47-43 'no don't ban abortion' Looks like it was the other way around https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-abortion-vote-in-kansas-looks-like-its-going-to-be-close/ quote:According to the first publicly released poll of the campaign, conducted by co/efficient and shared exclusively with FiveThirtyEight, 47 percent of likely primary voters say they plan to vote for the amendment, while 43 percent say they plan to vote against it. And it's not all in, but right now it's 60-40 against it https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-l...ional-amendment
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Aug 3, 2022 04:46
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Lemming posted:Looks like it was the other way around I think you missed the double negative edit: actually I guess its a triple negative!
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Aug 3, 2022 04:51
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Polls being wrong in a good way is a refreshing change
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Aug 3, 2022 04:57
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loving drubbed. gently caress you pro-forced birthers. gently caress yeah Kansas.
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Aug 3, 2022 04:58
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goethe.cx posted:Polls being wrong in a good way is a refreshing change This makes, what, six straight years of polling being just magic bullshit nerd numbers that mean absolutely nothing? Who the gently caress believes a single thing polls say anymore? I'd put more stock in my weekly horoscope turning out correctly at this point than I would anything Nate Silver or G Elliot Morris shits out and to try and silence the nagging voices in their souls whispering that they're dinosaurs who haven't yet managed to go extinct yet. nine-gear crow fucked around with this message at 05:04 on Aug 3, 2022 |
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Aug 3, 2022 05:01
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Currently the state has a GOP supermajority in both chambers and the gov race for Nov is a tossup so I wouldn't hold my breath. Yes the amendment failed but the GOP could pass an abortion ban over even a governor's veto any time they want. I'm guessing they'll wait until Jan to do so. The reason the constitutional amendment was on the ballot was because in 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that the Kansas Constitution guaranteed the right to an abortion. So if the legislature passes an abortion ban, that would pretty certainly be stopped by the court.
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Aug 3, 2022 05:04
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:Currently the state has a GOP supermajority in both chambers and the gov race for Nov is a tossup so I wouldn't hold my breath. Yes the amendment failed but the GOP could pass an abortion ban over even a governor's veto any time they want. I'm guessing they'll wait until Jan to do so. They can't because a few years back the Kansas State Supreme Court ruled that the state constitution protected abortion, hence the attempt to do so via an amendment.
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Aug 3, 2022 05:04
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nine-gear crow posted:This makes, what, six straight years of polling being just magic bullshit nerd numbers that mean absolutely nothing? Who the gently caress believes a single thing polls say anymore? I'd put more stock in my weekly horoscope turning out correctly at this point than I would anything Nate Silver or G Elliot Morris shits out and to try and silence the nagging voices in their souls whispering that they're dinosaurs who haven't yet managed to go extinct yet. The national-level ones have been pretty accurate. It's the state-level polls that have sucked
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Aug 3, 2022 05:06
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Fifteen of Many posted:The Kansas anti-abortion constitutional amendment appears to have failed. If the Democrats want to ride this to victory in the midterms there is one thing they need to do. Have the house pass a bill to codify Abortion Rights into Federal Law. Sure it will die in the Senate but it will force Republicans to go on the record.
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Aug 3, 2022 05:06
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Ghost Leviathan posted:I think stuff like the pregnant 10 year old going around are actually having an effect on a lot of people who thought they're obviously just going to ban whatever they think abortion is in their head, ie something feckless whores do to avoid responsibility, and get cold feet when they actually see what it means in practice. That and the many stories coming out about people in banned states having trouble getting treatment for ectopic pregnancies and other complications - it shows how bullshit the "health of the mother" exception is. VideoGameVet posted:If the Democrats want to ride this to victory in the midterms there is one thing they need to do. https://www.axios.com/2022/08/01/kaine-murkowski-sponsor-bipartisan-abortion-access-bill Youth Decay fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Aug 3, 2022 |
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Aug 3, 2022 05:09
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VideoGameVet posted:If the Democrats want to ride this to victory in the midterms there is one thing they need to do. this already happened https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/house-abortion-roe-v-wade/
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Aug 3, 2022 05:10
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Also which Eric won tonight?
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Aug 3, 2022 05:24
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nine-gear crow posted:Also which Eric won tonight? The not quite as gross one (aka not Greitens)
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Aug 3, 2022 05:34
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Oracle posted:The not quite as gross one (aka not Greitens) It's just as well, there was an outside chance of a Todd Akin/Roy Moore situation if Greitens had won, but Missouri is so insane these days that he still would have been a heavy favorite
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Aug 3, 2022 05:37
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nine-gear crow posted:Also which Eric won tonight? Douche bag boot licker Eric Schmidt. He loving really sucks and has been a really lovely Attorney General (for example suing school districts who continued to implement covid-19 mask mandates).
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Aug 3, 2022 05:50
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SalTheBard posted:Douche bag boot licker Eric Schmidt. He loving really sucks and has been a really lovely Attorney General (for example suing school districts who continued to implement covid-19 mask mandates). Does the dem candidate have even an outside chance?
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Aug 3, 2022 06:07
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Lemming posted:Looks like it was the other way around Republicans really don't ever change. And since our fine GOP voting neighbors once again find themselves lying to pollsters due to embarrassment about their vote, we could be seeing the first indicator of a return of the skewed polls we saw in 2016 and 2020, except this time in our favor. Gonna be some interesting midterm elections. -Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 07:22 on Aug 3, 2022 |
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Aug 3, 2022 07:08
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-Blackadder- posted:So basically it's a variation on the classic. "The only moral vote for abortion is my secret vote for abortion." I am increasingly convinced that the problem the pollsters have isn't people lying to them, it's their complete ineptitude in adjusting the likely voter definition to account for big poo poo like abortion being outlawed. They just try really hard to make you think it's the first one (not their fault) so that you don't realize it's the second (absolutely their fault).
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Aug 3, 2022 11:30
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Well I'm glad I was wrong about it being close 
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Aug 3, 2022 12:50
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Oracle posted:The not quite as gross one (aka not Greitens) Having once lived in MO, I'm actually surprised by this. Even though Schmidt is a Ken Paxton wannabe, at least that accused rapist, kidnapper, domestic abuser, con artist, and overall human garbage Greitens isn't going anywhere other than back to his cesspool.
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Aug 3, 2022 13:12
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VideoGameVet posted:Sure it will die in the Senate but it will force Republicans to go on the record.
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Aug 3, 2022 13:23
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Oracle posted:Does the dem candidate have even an outside chance? Against Greitens I would've said yes, but Missouri (I live in KS) has become very Trumpy. Their Governor Mike Parsons and Eric Schmidt are really popular with CHUDs and with the more moderate GOP voters. Maybe some story breaks that hurts Schmidt enough with suburban Moms, but I doubt it.
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Aug 3, 2022 13:36
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Oracle posted:Does the dem candidate have even an outside chance? No Missouri is a deep deep red state now and fantasizing about a return to 90s swing state Missouri is roughly as likely as republicans fantasies that they have a pick-up opportunity in Washington this year.
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Aug 3, 2022 13:41
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Epicurius posted:The reason the constitutional amendment was on the ballot was because in 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that the Kansas Constitution guaranteed the right to an abortion. So if the legislature passes an abortion ban, that would pretty certainly be stopped by the court. I admit I don't know the specifics of that case, but I think Republican politicians have shown that even when they wear robes, they are not above completely contradicting themselves within the span of a few days let alone years. Also, I can very much see a suit being brought through the courts asserting that the Kansas Constitution is wrong and the current SCOTUS would almost certainly flip and say that it's not a state's rights issue but a sacred protection of unborn life. I'm not saying it's not a good outcome, I'm saying that the media is making this out to be some watershed moment in the debate on abortion, and I just don't see that. The fascists won't give up, they'll use the courts when they can't win through legislation or referendum.
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Aug 3, 2022 13:46
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:I admit I don't know the specifics of that case, but I think Republican politicians have shown that even when they wear robes, they are not above completely contradicting themselves within the span of a few days let alone years. I certainly get what you mean by the fascists won't give up but suits have to have standing. How would one sue the state of Kansas over its own constitution? That it contradicts the US one? I don't think so. That's not to say the SCOTUS won't find a way to outlaw abortion nationally. It's just that that road doesn't run through Kansas.
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Aug 3, 2022 13:54
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So, yikes at all the cretins being boosted in Arizona. From the NYTquote:Blake Masters, a venture capitalist and political newcomer who received enthusiastic backing from former President Donald J. Trump, captured the Republican nomination for Arizona’s Senate seat, according to The Associated Press, and will face Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent, this fall.
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Aug 3, 2022 14:05
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Dietrich posted:I am increasingly convinced that the problem the pollsters have isn't people lying to them, it's their complete ineptitude in adjusting the likely voter definition to account for big poo poo like abortion being outlawed. They just try really hard to make you think it's the first one (not their fault) so that you don't realize it's the second (absolutely their fault). ineptitude is a part of it, but the other part is pure rear end-covering. best practices increasingly are to just not adjust the likely voter definition from the last sample, because any adjustment you make there is PURE guesswork, and an indefensible source of error if it turns out you're wrong. so if you're personally trying to preserve your image as a view-from-nowhere voice of The Data, you pretend there have been no changes from last time, on the grounds doing more than that risks discrediting you. even when, as we saw in 2020, you know for a fact that statement is utter insanity.
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Aug 3, 2022 14:28
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:No Missouri is a deep deep red state now and fantasizing about a return to 90s swing state Missouri is roughly as likely as republicans fantasies that they have a pick-up opportunity in Washington this year. Yeah, it had a reputation as a bellwether state, which it ceased to be in 2008 when they voted for McCain (that they didn't certify their election results for a while after Obama was declared the overall winner pending a recount in Missouri). Since then it's become red AF, or maybe it was that way since GWB.
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Aug 3, 2022 14:31
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Trump did not take the step of paying a soulless lawyer to come up with a dogshit argument as to why his orders were legal and therefore the norms were preserved, thank god. Now back to my day job of torturing people at Guantanamo and drone striking children.
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Aug 3, 2022 14:33
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I don't know where to put this but I honestly think that Trump endorsing "Eric" in Arizona was actually on purpose so he can claim that his supported candidate won no matter who it is. "Everyone knows who I meant and that it was Eric __________ of course but the fake news media is trying to smear me. Those other Erics are losers and I would never endorse them."
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Aug 3, 2022 14:47
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BiggerBoat posted:I don't know where to put this but I honestly think that Trump endorsing "Eric" in Arizona was actually on purpose so he can claim that his supported candidate won no matter who it is. Maybe. Don Jr and his girlfriend specified that "MAGA world" supported Greitens, though. There's still probably enough plausible deniability since Trump never specified himself.
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Aug 3, 2022 14:48
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