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CarForumPoster
Jun 26, 2013

⚡POWER⚡

Darchangel posted:

"Self Driving" to the average person means the car drives itself without need for input from a human. We will *never* get that without the cars talking to each other, the road, and possibly a central control. Asking the car to do it all is tantamount to making the car a mobile AI, and if it's that powerful, it's going to go rogue and kill us all, or itself (See Delamain in Cyberpunk 2077) In other words, it will not exist, certainly not any time soon.

Trust me, I *want* all the terrible drivers and drivers who don't want to be driving to not be driving, but it's not going to happen in the next 10 years, probably not the next 30.

Let's say that high bandwidth low latency broadband is available everywhere, a thing that surely seems to be coming. If the car gets stuck, someone takes over and drives remotely. If it gets really stuck, a team is dispatched. But 980 out of 1000 trips are completed uneventfully without human intervention. 15 require a remote driver to intervene. 5 something else happens like the car breaks down, gets in an accident, or for some other reason can't continue but the occupant isn't hurt.

Do we have self driving cars?

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Galler
Jan 28, 2008


I'll just stick with the SAE classifications of automation until something better comes along

KoRMaK
Jul 31, 2012



CarForumPoster posted:

Let's say that high bandwidth low latency broadband is available everywhere, a thing that surely seems to be coming.
Is this sarcasm?

CarForumPoster
Jun 26, 2013

⚡POWER⚡

Galler posted:

I'll just stick with the SAE classifications of automation until something better comes along

Doesn’t really seem relevant but fine, is SAE level 4 a self driving car?

If so, it seems extremely likely we’ll get there without cars talking to each other or major infrastructure projects or making special lanes.

SAE level 4 could be a revolution in transportation as it drops the cost of operating a taxi to almost nothing. You need far fewer drivers per car to handle failure scenarios. Why own a car?

CarForumPoster
Jun 26, 2013

⚡POWER⚡

KoRMaK posted:

Is this sarcasm?

https://mashable.com/article/starlink-fcc-approval-moving-vehicles

Fellatio del Toro
Mar 21, 2009

intensely elon musk brained posts lol

KoRMaK
Jul 31, 2012



with a reference to starlink lol

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

Once we get self driving cars your car will pay for itself by being a taxi, so simple!

CarForumPoster
Jun 26, 2013

⚡POWER⚡
Saying someone likes Elon musk has seemingly replaced calling them a nazi in internet discussions.

Who cares about some rich dude, I want to be able to go to the grocery store by myself when I’m 90 and can’t drive. SAE 4 gets me there.

It seems pretty silly to say that this thing will NEVER happen when things like this exist today:

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/18/waymo-is-expanding-its-driverless-program-in-phoenix/amp/

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


More like CarForumBadPoster

ya burnt



It's the final boss of autozone

OBAMNA PHONE
Aug 7, 2002

CarForumPoster posted:

Saying someone likes Elon musk has seemingly replaced calling them a nazi in internet discussions.

Who cares about some rich dude, I want to be able to go to the grocery store by myself when I’m 90 and can’t drive. SAE 4 gets me there.

It seems pretty silly to say that this thing will NEVER happen when things like this exist today:

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/18/waymo-is-expanding-its-driverless-program-in-phoenix/amp/

transit gets you there lol

cursedshitbox
May 20, 2012

Your rear-end wont survive my hammering.



Fun Shoe
Because jitterbugs can't order grocery delivery.

Ether Frenzy
Dec 22, 2006




Nap Ghost
Martha, where's the goddam "Uber Eats" button again? Where are my glasses???

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Starlink is not low latency. Granted it's a far loving jump above normal satellite but it is not low latency in the real world especially when you start hitting the link with real data. It is barely better than ADSL1/2 in this respect. Yes, I am familiar with this problem. I'm looking at a real world real time application my employer has in place for machinery control and it's got lag. This is not what you want for a far more complex real time application.

CarForumPoster posted:

Saying someone likes Elon musk has seemingly replaced calling them a nazi in internet discussions.

Musk, aside from how much of a complete poo poo of a human being he is, does nto have any real technical idea about this and his company cant deliver - even if I think the approach as a concept to the problem solving is inherently sound (massive datapoint collection brute force solve), Tesla are so loving bad at it

quote:

It seems pretty silly to say that this thing will NEVER happen when things like this exist today:

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/18/waymo-is-expanding-its-driverless-program-in-phoenix/amp/

They have had to map a small section in paaaaaaainful detail in a city where the weather is as favorable as you can get to systems that have problems with rain and adverse conditions, still get confused by roadworks, still get regularly rear ended, still have problems with things like bikes and only are allowed to exist in places that do not have justifiably hostile political conditions.

Instead of waisting ridiculous amounts of resources, support a decent bus service. If you can walk in a grocery store, you can catch a bus.

Ether Frenzy
Dec 22, 2006




Nap Ghost
Videogame cars can't even drive on the roads in a videogame without bugging out and loving up, and that's on a finite set of roads that the programmers know everything about. But I suppose we'll also be colonizing Mars too, any minute now.

Olympic Mathlete
Feb 25, 2011

:h:


Ether Frenzy posted:

Videogame cars can't even drive on the roads in a videogame without bugging out and loving up, and that's on a finite set of roads that the programmers know everything about. But I suppose we'll also be colonizing Mars too, any minute now.

Devs will also just cheat and make it so AI isn't affected by the same physics engine as the player in order to make the cars go round the track for the illusion of racing. Unfortunately you don't get to opt out of reality.

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher
Instead of trying to reinvent public transport but with hand wavy "self Driving caaaaaars" You could for less build a on demand bus system that takes you to a automated train that arrives every 5-10 minutes depending on time that gets you to another station where the on demand bus takes you where you need to go. Process reverses when you want to go home?

Pipe dream? Nah, it's called Sydney Metro, it's loving awesome and I wish they could make it a lot bigger. Iteven has bike paths along the main train route and feeder paths tot he stations. Oh and also it has satellite apartment construction so populations and shops are right next to the stations too!

Nah, that aint gonna fly in (name a city) because (reasons that have been answered)

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

CarForumPoster posted:

Saying someone likes Elon musk has seemingly replaced calling them a nazi in internet discussions.

No, it hasn't. Let me put a very fine point on this for you so there is no confusion: Elon Musk is an engineer-brained (as in, thinks because they know something about one thing that they are an expert in everything) narcissist who craves nothing other than constant attention. Their "big ideas" are near 100% hand-wavey "we'll let someone else figure out the details" which does not work for the bulk of his ideas, even as the wealthiest man on the planet. Without his completely unrelated tech industry cash windfall he would be 100% irrelevant and invisible. Because of his lust of attention he's used this money to buy it. He's also a terrible human being as a person outside of all of this.

You are being accused of buying into both his "solutions" and his style of "problem solving" but without the ability to hire your way out of filling in the relevant details of your "big ideas".

slidebite
Nov 6, 2005

Good egg
:colbert:

Ah yes, the "ideas" guy.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

CarForumPoster posted:

Saying someone likes Elon musk has seemingly replaced calling them a nazi in internet discussions.

Who cares about some rich dude, I want to be able to go to the grocery store by myself when I’m 90 and can’t drive. SAE 4 gets me there.

It seems pretty silly to say that this thing will NEVER happen when things like this exist today:

https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/18/waymo-is-expanding-its-driverless-program-in-phoenix/amp/

Settle down Beavis.

PBCrunch
Jun 17, 2002

Lawrence Phillips Always #1 to Me
Isn't part of the problem with Tesla also a refusal to "clutter" the "styling" of its cars with the sensor array that would provide inputs that would be easier for a self-driving algorithm to use?

Like the doodads hot-glued to the top of these GM self-driving cars that clustered and blocked streets in San Francisco:

Olympic Mathlete
Feb 25, 2011

:h:


^ those are the ones that all gathered on that one street and 'bluescreened' together which meant people had to drive out and reset them all manually, right? :lol:

PBCrunch
Jun 17, 2002

Lawrence Phillips Always #1 to Me
I think the cars gained sentience and clustered to perform a mass seppuku in protest to the way they have been treated. They couldn't fully nuke themselves, so they just went into a blue screen coma.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Like a pod of whales that decided to beach themselves :(

Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

PBCrunch posted:

Isn't part of the problem with Tesla also a refusal to "clutter" the "styling" of its cars with the sensor array that would provide inputs that would be easier for a self-driving algorithm to use?

IIRC, the vendor of the inexpensive lidar that was to be used in early Teslas got wind of their "plans for autonomous driving" (if you can call their loving garbage a plan) and said "Holy poo poo, we want no part in your terrible murdercars, gently caress no, you're not using our sensors for this because we know it's not fit for task"

The refusal to move from purely vision based object recognition and the complete lack of object permanence suggests to me that integrating additional data into their existing training set is nearly impossible due to poor design, architectural issues, and/or poor quality or other problems with their training set.

I could ramble about how no current software safety certification could ever pass the kind of AI based object recognition, but it's not even an issue since this garbage will fail much more basic testing..

People that swear this poo poo is right around the corner are either venture capitalists looking for marks investors, rubes that huff musk-farts, or people with absolutely no loving understanding of what anything close to full autonomy requires.

BuckyDoneGun
Nov 30, 2004
fat drunk

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Starlink is not low latency. Granted it's a far loving jump above normal satellite but it is not low latency in the real world especially when you start hitting the link with real data. It is barely better than ADSL1/2 in this respect. Yes, I am familiar with this problem. I'm looking at a real world real time application my employer has in place for machinery control and it's got lag. This is not what you want for a far more complex real time application.

I know gently caress about it, but isn't this one of the things they push about 5G? I know it's still early days and while I know the bandwidth is fine, dunno about the lag. Still, OP suggesting remote takeover is dumb as a bag of hammers.

Blitter posted:

The refusal to move from purely vision based object recognition and the complete lack of object permanence suggests to me that integrating additional data into their existing training set is nearly impossible due to poor design, architectural issues, and/or poor quality or other problems with their training set.

I recall from a discussion about one of the books on Tesla is that they want us to think the "FSD" "beta" is all about this massive data collection and training exercise, but turns out they're actually doing gently caress all?

I just can't believe the many murders they've done so far haven't tanked them. Like sure it's one thing to murder homeless or cyclists or people of colour, but when you start plowing through crash scenes and start murdering fire and EMT and cops and still nothing?!?! Goddamn.

Darchangel
Feb 12, 2009

Tell him about the blower!


CarForumPoster posted:

Let's say that high bandwidth low latency broadband is available everywhere, a thing that surely seems to be coming.

KoRMaK posted:

Is this sarcasm?

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

Instead of waisting ridiculous amounts of resources, support a decent bus service. If you can walk in a grocery store, you can catch a bus.

This (the US) is the country where somehow it's more cost-effective to PUT SATELLITES IN ORBIT for internet service than to lay cable/fiber to rural areas... satellites! in! orbit!

Powershift posted:

More like CarForumBadPoster

ya burnt



It's the final boss of autozone

Proof that "unique" is not always "good". Or "desirable."

BuckyDoneGun
Nov 30, 2004
fat drunk

Darchangel posted:

This (the US) is the country where somehow it's more cost-effective to PUT SATELLITES IN ORBIT for internet service than to lay cable/fiber to rural areas... satellites! in! orbit!

Yeah you guys really should do some more fibre, shits awesome. Base plans here just got upgraded from 100mbit to 300mbit for free, you can get 900mbit* anywhere fibre exists in the country (87% of the population), and they're now rolling out even faster options. I can order symmetrical 2000mbit (US$80/mo), 4000mbit (US$100) and 8000mbit (US$175) right now in my area and they just demonstrated 25000mbit. All unlimited download.

*Technically yeah it's 1000mbit but they account for protocol overheads and round down in what they promise to sell you, usually you'll speed test closer to 1000mbit, similar with the 8000mbit, its 10Gbit GPON.

Ask any Australian about the state of their NBN - we did what they originally planned but actually carried through with it, didn't cancel and gently caress around with FTTN and all kinds of dumb poo poo for dumb political reasons.

honda whisperer
Mar 29, 2009

I hate you. 300mbit for $85 a month here. It's fine but it's way overpriced for what it is. There is zero competition that isn't satellite or dialup. I hate it.

InitialDave
Jun 14, 2007

I Want To Believe.

Ether Frenzy posted:

Videogame cars can't even drive on the roads in a videogame without bugging out and loving up, and that's on a finite set of roads that the programmers know everything about. But I suppose we'll also be colonizing Mars too, any minute now.
One of my friends has a doctorate in computer science relating to artificial intelligence, and lectures on the subject of programming things like pathfinding.

His opinion on self driving cars is akin to that meme about IT guys keeping a handgun next to their printer in case it starts acting suspicious.

Galler
Jan 28, 2008


BuckyDoneGun posted:

I know gently caress about it, but isn't this one of the things they push about 5G? I know it's still early days and while I know the bandwidth is fine, dunno about the lag. Still, OP suggesting remote takeover is dumb as a bag of hammers.

There's a bunch of stuff under the 5G umbrella and the '5G solves everything' talk usually mixes up it all up. It's hard to know what 5G advantages you'll actually get in the real world with all the hype. I don't know if 5G actually is lower latency across the board or only for certain implementations.

For speeds, 5G at 4G frequency doesn't change much and that's probably where most 5G will be for a long time. Millimeter wave 5G is really fast but it only really works in like sports stadiums where a ton of transceivers can be deployed close to the users.

Galler fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Aug 4, 2022

slidebite
Nov 6, 2005

Good egg
:colbert:

I have gigabit FTTH and it is awesome, but I have to think that it's overkill for most home users. It's literally faster than my Cat5e can handle.

I heard someone talking about tech and learning computers in general and what they said made a lot of sense. We can make it accurate 95% of the time (speech recognition was the topic but you could probably transfer self driving auto tech as well), but that last 5% is a real bitch.

No idea if its accurate or not for other learning tech, but it makes sense. The speech recognition on my phone is pretty good, but definitely not 100%... probably 95-98.
I certainly wouldn't trust it to make life and death decisions.

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

BuckyDoneGun posted:

Yeah you guys really should do some more fibre, shits awesome.

I have it and yes, it is. But do you not understand the size and geography of this country? It's very difficult and not at all cost effective to get it to a lot of places that people live (not where MOST people live, but where people do still live).

Galler
Jan 28, 2008


slidebite posted:

I have gigabit FTTH and it is awesome, but I have to think that it's overkill for most home users. It's literally faster than my Cat5e can handle.

It's a bit much for most people, but the Cat6 standard was published 20 years ago. It probably took a while for cable to be widely available but regardless Cat5e is old.

Olympic Mathlete
Feb 25, 2011

:h:


BuckyDoneGun posted:

I recall from a discussion about one of the books on Tesla is that they want us to think the "FSD" "beta" is all about this massive data collection and training exercise, but turns out they're actually doing gently caress all?

I'm fairly confident I read that the lead on their FSD stuff had actually left the company not too long ago.

*fakedit: here we go

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/tesla-ai-leader-andrej-karpathy-announces-hes-leaving-the-company.html

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1547332300186066944

BuckyDoneGun
Nov 30, 2004
fat drunk

honda whisperer posted:

I hate you. 300mbit for $85 a month here. It's fine but it's way overpriced for what it is. There is zero competition that isn't satellite or dialup. I hate it.

I pay $49 but got 3mo free on a 12mo deal so like $37. There's no competition for the physical network, that's a statutory monopoly (well, 4 or 5 "local fiber companies") but it's open access at regulated wholesale prices to retail ISP's. Obviously there's 4G/5G and in rural areas also any number of local fixed wireless providers, to cater for areas without fiber.

Galler posted:

There's a bunch of stuff under the 5G umbrella and the '5G solves everything' talk usually mixes up it all up. It's hard to know what 5G advantages you'll actually get in the real world with all the hype. I don't know if 5G actually is lower latency across the board or only for certain implementations.

For speeds, 5G at 4G frequency doesn't change much and that's probably where most 5G will be for a long time. Millimeter wave 5G is really fast but it only really works in like sports stadiums where a ton of transceivers can be deployed close to the users.

That's mostly what I figured. Another nice thing though about fiber everywhere - you can put transceivers anywhere too - slap em on every streetlight if you wanted.

slidebite posted:

I have gigabit FTTH and it is awesome, but I have to think that it's overkill for most home users. It's literally faster than my Cat5e can handle.

That's kinda what everyone said, up until pandemic times and suddenly multiple people are WFH on video calls and poo poo. Not to mention multiple 4K TV streams and such.

Motronic posted:

I have it and yes, it is. But do you not understand the size and geography of this country? It's very difficult and not at all cost effective to get it to a lot of places that people live (not where MOST people live, but where people do still live).

I do understand, but you're also a *vastly* wealthier country than we are. Is it easy? No. Is it cost effective to do *everywhere*? No. Could you do it a whole lot more than you do? gently caress yes you can. Are you telling me this piss poor country at the arse end of the world can get fiber to towns like Nightcaps, population 300, and America can't? It's the will that's at issue, not the capability. Also we might not have size, but we do have geography too. I'd also suggest the distance isn't the hard part, it's the in-town network that's the biggest part of the build.

Darchangel
Feb 12, 2009

Tell him about the blower!


BuckyDoneGun posted:

I do understand, but you're also a *vastly* wealthier country than we are. Is it easy? No. Is it cost effective to do *everywhere*? No. Could you do it a whole lot more than you do? gently caress yes you can. Are you telling me this piss poor country at the arse end of the world can get fiber to towns like Nightcaps, population 300, and America can't? It's the will that's at issue, not the capability. Also we might not have size, but we do have geography too. I'd also suggest the distance isn't the hard part, it's the in-town network that's the biggest part of the build.

This right here. It gets even more :psyduck: when you learn that telecoms have been incentivized multiple times by tax breaks to build out rural networks and just... didn't. And face zero repercussions or penalties, because :capitalism:

OBAMNA PHONE
Aug 7, 2002

BuckyDoneGun posted:

I pay $49 but got 3mo free on a 12mo deal so like $37. There's no competition for the physical network, that's a statutory monopoly (well, 4 or 5 "local fiber companies") but it's open access at regulated wholesale prices to retail ISP's. Obviously there's 4G/5G and in rural areas also any number of local fixed wireless providers, to cater for areas without fiber.

That's mostly what I figured. Another nice thing though about fiber everywhere - you can put transceivers anywhere too - slap em on every streetlight if you wanted.

That's kinda what everyone said, up until pandemic times and suddenly multiple people are WFH on video calls and poo poo. Not to mention multiple 4K TV streams and such.

I do understand, but you're also a *vastly* wealthier country than we are. Is it easy? No. Is it cost effective to do *everywhere*? No. Could you do it a whole lot more than you do? gently caress yes you can. Are you telling me this piss poor country at the arse end of the world can get fiber to towns like Nightcaps, population 300, and America can't? It's the will that's at issue, not the capability. Also we might not have size, but we do have geography too. I'd also suggest the distance isn't the hard part, it's the in-town network that's the biggest part of the build.

America is a shithole country

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

Motronic posted:

I have it and yes, it is. But do you not understand the size and geography of this country? It's very difficult and not at all cost effective to get it to a lot of places that people live (not where MOST people live, but where people do still live).

Australians understand the problems of geography and size better than the the USA claim to, esp with a much smaller population. And yet can achieve fttn in places where the USA wont despite those areas in Australia having a much smaller population.

Like where I live. I just got fttp, they ripped out the copper and I'm full fibre into the house. The area I live is regional and also population 4500. I can get full gigabit if I really wanted (I dont because I finally have a Internet connection that well exceeds my use case). I also have 5G now even and for years I was stuck with ADSL or satellite. Not 2, just ADSL. I am 100% spoiled for choice now after having years of frustration. The USA aint got no loving excuse.

quote:

Ask any Australian about the state of their NBN - we did what they originally planned but actually carried through with it, didn't cancel and gently caress around with FTTN and all kinds of dumb poo poo for dumb political reasons.

Yeah they are fixing that now tho finally (See above). And in the areas where fttp cant be done - waaaaaay outback - then Musknet is an appropriate and actually good solution for a use case where satellite is the best option. We have Starlink in play in Lismore for example where the main infra was utterly destroyed and will take months to be fixed - while it's no real replacement to usual wired or 4G/5G, for satellite it's impressive.

CAT INTERCEPTOR fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Aug 4, 2022

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slidebite
Nov 6, 2005

Good egg
:colbert:

^^ I live in a town of 9000 people in :canada: and every single address has FTTH. Even the old properties, not just the new ones.

Galler posted:

It's a bit much for most people, but the Cat6 standard was published 20 years ago. It probably took a while for cable to be widely available but regardless Cat5e is old.

BuckyDoneGun posted:

That's kinda what everyone said, up until pandemic times and suddenly multiple people are WFH on video calls and poo poo. Not to mention multiple 4K TV streams and such.
Oh for sure on both counts, but it's still literally enough bandwidth for 25+ 4K streams with ample room left over for multiple video conferences simultaneously. I totally get that who knows what the future is going to bring, but a saturated 5e connection is still overkill for basically anyone short of shuffling a TB of files around the net. Other than bragging rights and moving a massive amount of :files: I genuinely don't know what you'd do with a 4000bit connection connection.

Not saying bragging rights is nothing and nobody needs more than 512K 50mb.

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