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Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



They didnt cause it, I just dont know how you mitigate something like "all floodplains are now parking lots" that isnt something unacceptable like "stop doing that"

My own town center has developed a problem with flooding when it gets wild so they're replacing parking lots with trees and green spaces which I'm pretty sure would get you assassinated in Texas.

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TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Usually you control this type of development through zoning. For instance in my area we have rules about how much of your developed land can be impermeable cover like a parking lot. Obviously we just issue variances for anyone with money because the economy and so the next time there are heavy rains your house washes out to sea because there is nowhere for the water to go.

I'm guessing this type of thing is what the earlier poster was referring to. Does that make sense?

Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007


Real hurthling! posted:

man attempting to kill spider with fire like the meme "kill it with fire" has been arrested for instead igniting the springville wildfire in utah.

whew I thought some other timeline might sneak up and become stupider than this one for a second there

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
https://twitter.com/us_stormwatch/status/1554624812596678656?s=21&t=LckrbygR3yDBNYjrZ3TGbQ

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Doesn't that make like 4-6 in the last two weeks? Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Kentucky were all last week so it seems like I missed two from this week?

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

TehSaurus posted:

Doesn't that make like 4-6 in the last two weeks? Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Kentucky were all last week so it seems like I missed two from this week?

I'm in Minneapolis, we didn't have any extreme rain like that. In fact we have been in a drought all summer

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Digging back through the thread it was St. Louis. Sorry it all runs together for me!

Mr. Lobe
Feb 23, 2007

... Dry bones...


Real hurthling! posted:

man attempting to kill spider with fire like the meme "kill it with fire" has been arrested for instead igniting the springville wildfire in utah.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZ3Pi1QBAlQ

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
What's the probability of 5 events happening, each with a probability of 0.1% of happening within a year, when the events cover 100-1000 square miles in a country of 3.7M square miles?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

SirPablo posted:

What's the probability of 5 events happening, each with a probability of 0.1% of happening within a year, when the events cover 100-1000 square miles in a country of 3.7M square miles?

i don’t know. sounds like a modeling crisis may be afoot.

Dustcat
Jan 26, 2019

SirPablo posted:

What's the probability of 5 events happening, each with a probability of 0.1% of happening within a year, when the events cover 100-1000 square miles in a country of 3.7M square miles?

also the events are not independent but you don't know how they're dependent

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



SirPablo posted:

What's the probability of 5 events happening, each with a probability of 0.1% of happening within a year, when the events cover 100-1000 square miles in a country of 3.7M square miles?

100%

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


It's actually 150%

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

SirPablo posted:

What's the probability of 5 events happening, each with a probability of 0.1% of happening within a year, when the events cover 100-1000 square miles in a country of 3.7M square miles?

There are two possibilities: either it happens, or it doesn’t.

p = 0.5

Helith
Nov 5, 2009

Basket of Adorables


Seems bad

https://twitter.com/GuardianAus/status/1555307106726809601

SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

What's the probability of my floor fan dying due to engineered obsolescence AND my accidentally knocking apart the flimsy dollar store USB fan I found in a drawer like it was the Holy Grail, in the same day? The blades lit up with LEDs saying "LOOK, I'M ALL FANCY". LEDs died within 10 minutes and I barely touched it to break it. Now i'm having heat stroke and thinking how much energy was put into producing untold millions of these things.

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



SplitSoul posted:

What's the probability of my floor fan dying due to engineered obsolescence AND my accidentally knocking apart the flimsy dollar store USB fan I found in a drawer like it was the Holy Grail, in the same day? The blades lit up with LEDs saying "LOOK, I'M ALL FANCY". LEDs died within 10 minutes and I barely touched it to break it. Now i'm having heat stroke and thinking how much energy was put into producing untold millions of these things.

again, 100%.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

jetz0r posted:

again, 100%.

agreed. if something happens the probability was 100% and any previous guesses are modeling crises.

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
you fools, there is a 0 to 100% chance of anything happening therefore there could never be a modeling crisis in a universe with mathematics no matter how much the basis of a model or it's variables change

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



mawarannahr posted:

agreed. if something happens the probability was 100% and any previous guesses are modeling crises.

exactly, once the probability tree has collapsed, there is nothing else that could have happened. if you thought something else might happen, you were wrong.

Shifty Nipples
Apr 8, 2007

jetz0r posted:

exactly, once the probability tree has collapsed, there is nothing else that could have happened. if you thought something else might happen, you were wrong.

what's the probability of anyone being around to hear the probability tree collapse

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.



Shifty Nipples posted:

what's the probability of anyone being around to hear the probability tree collapse
probability tree burned in a wildfire, then got washed away in a flash flood.
https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1555014219891965952

Milo and POTUS
Sep 3, 2017

I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?

SplitSoul posted:

What's the probability of my floor fan dying due to engineered obsolescence AND my accidentally knocking apart the flimsy dollar store USB fan I found in a drawer like it was the Holy Grail, in the same day? The blades lit up with LEDs saying "LOOK, I'M ALL FANCY". LEDs died within 10 minutes and I barely touched it to break it. Now i'm having heat stroke and thinking how much energy was put into producing untold millions of these things.

Look on the bright side, in 4 months it'll be cold and you'll be wishing for some of that "global warming"

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
I'm commissioning a Blue Ribbon committee of goons to solve the model crisis.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/DutraWeather/status/1555154185938763776

Dustcat
Jan 26, 2019


lol

ekuNNN
Nov 27, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/EugenesBagOTrix/status/1555429460815536133

Milo and POTUS
Sep 3, 2017

I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin

when you gotta travel 5 miles up the thames for head

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!

im pretty sure the queen has been dried out a lot longer than that :colbert:

Honky Mao
Dec 26, 2012

I can't wait for my season of repeated heat waves to turn into a season which is one big heat wave

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry


plz, the rain

the percentage rolls never work out, meteorologists are playing us for fools

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Weatherdammerung 2022: Roll D20 for Precipitation Chance

OK baizuo
Mar 19, 2021

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

SorePotato posted:

I can't wait for my season of repeated heat waves to turn into a season which is one big heat wave

For the last month, Denver has had a fun pattern of two weeks of 95-100 degree clear days followed by a week of 80s where the monsoon goes into overdrive

July is usually the driest part of the summer, after the spring monsoon and before the fall monsoon

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




local weather is so bad at telling the weather every time i look the storm is coming at completely different times which were all never

Laterite
Mar 14, 2007

It's Gutfest '89
Grimey Drawer
gonna be 'nother scorcher in the PNW this weekend

i forgot to call sears

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Laterite posted:

gonna be 'nother scorcher in the PNW this weekend

i forgot to call sears
God drat it I told you to call RIGHT NOW

Just a Moron
Nov 11, 2021


Such pure joy, we should all aspire to this

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Cuttlefush
Jan 15, 2014

gotta have my purp
gotta show them earth.nullschool.net

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