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Chalks posted:Yeah, but what impact do you think stopping them from going on holiday in Europe has? They go on holiday to Dubai or somewhere else... so what? Like, you're saying "it is a good thing to feed Putin's isolationist agenda because the positive effects outweigh the downside" but that positive is like.... a basically identical holiday in a different location? Tourism is a luxury for the middle and upper class and depriving the middle and upper class of luxuries is good because it keeps their attention on the cause of their deprivations and creates an incentive to put pressure on their government to address it. It's possibly that they will not put pressure on the Russian government and certainly that would be unfortunate but it is worth it to try it. I see no downside. There is no indication that Russian tourists over the last 30 years have made Russia any more tolerant, inclusive or democratic.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:33
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Owling Howl posted:Tourism is a luxury for the middle and upper class and depriving the middle and upper class of luxuries is good because it keeps their attention on the cause of their deprivations and creates an incentive to put pressure on their government to address it. It's possibly that they will not put pressure on the Russian government and certainly that would be unfortunate but it is worth it to try it. We should also then surly restrict immigration from China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, right? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 10, 2022 22:35
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FishBulbia posted:We should also then surly restrict immigration from China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, right? The post you quoted specifically mentions tourism, not immigration. Do you have concerns with restricting tourism from Russia? I assume you do. Or maybe a reason why you are conflating tourist visas with every other kind of visa/immigration in general?
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Aug 10, 2022 22:37
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KitConstantine posted:The post you quoted specifically mentions tourism, not immigration. Do you have concerns with restricting tourism from Russia? I assume you do. What other type of visa would you like people to get? I guess they can try to get a job in an EU country or try to cross the border illegally and hope that they don't get deported or arrested by Russian border services and charged with espionage.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:40
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Russia has resorted to deploying wacky waving arm inflatable flailing tube missiles in Crimea: https://twitter.com/na_intel/status/1557381938742263808 Edit: Ah drat seems to be footage from 2018, but it's entirely believable otherwise based on what we've seen so far In penance, have some before and after photos of that airbase strike. Photos are destroyed aircraft and craters, no bodies or anything like that       HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Aug 10, 2022 |
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Aug 10, 2022 22:45
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Again, Russia has passport control on BOTH SIDES of the border, you can't just go up to the guy and say "I have committed crimes and would like to leave now  "
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Aug 10, 2022 22:49
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FishBulbia posted:We should also then surly restrict immigration from China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, right? I'm fully in favor of immigration and exchange students from Russia, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. I have no problem with a stop for tourist visas for Chinese citizens if they invade Taiwan for example or for Saudi Arabian citizens for their war in Yemen and so on.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:50
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I might have some opinions on tourist visas or immigration visas but I'm willing to defer to official Ukrainian policy that requests the cessation of all Russian visas. After the war, the policy can be revisited. This has support from Belgium, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and I believe the Czechs and Poles and is to be discussed among EU reps Aug 31.
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Aug 10, 2022 22:56
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Owling Howl posted:I'm fully in favor of immigration and exchange students from Russia, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. I'm just never going to agree that it is better to send dissidents to the penal colony or journalists to be mutilated than risk a rowdy tourist, sorry. https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1557427416687075329 FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Aug 10, 2022 |
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Aug 10, 2022 22:59
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FishBulbia posted:I'm just never going to agree that it is better to send dissidents to the penal colony or journalists to be mutilated than risk a rowdy tourist, sorry. I would strongly suggest dissidents and journalists get a tourist visa for Turkey or any number of other countries.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:16
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Owling Howl posted:I would strongly suggest dissidents and journalists get a tourist visa for Turkey or any number of other countries. So tourism isn't the issue, just potential tourism near you? All countries shouldn't follow suit if the goal is to create regime change?
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Aug 10, 2022 23:20
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KitConstantine posted:The post you quoted specifically mentions tourism, not immigration. Do you have concerns with restricting tourism from Russia? I assume you do. I don't know about the EU at all, but in the US applying for visit visa (one purpose of which is tourism) then petitioning for asylum is a totally valid way for a Russian dissident to immigrate. Shutting off the tourist visa (equivalent) pipeline would mean some number of people who are trying to escape would end up stuck. Edit: slow posting, beaten repeatedly Neorxenawang fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Aug 10, 2022 |
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Aug 10, 2022 23:23
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Neorxenawang posted:I don't know about the EU at all, but in the US applying for visit visa (one purpose of which is tourism) then petitioning for asylum is a totally valid way for a Russian dissident to immigrate. Shutting off the tourist visa (equivalent) pipeline would mean some number of people who are trying to escape would end up stuck. Not only one way, but by far the easiest, fastest, and safest, especially since Russia seems to be making moves to shut off aliyah and restrict emigration in general.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:28
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Neorxenawang posted:I don't know about the EU at all, but in the US applying for visit visa (one purpose of which is tourism) then petitioning for asylum is a totally valid way for a Russian dissident to immigrate. Shutting off the tourist visa (equivalent) pipeline would mean some number of people who are trying to escape would end up stuck. And we can't get all countries onboard with sanctions, so why would anyone expect that to be possible with visas. Especially when it comes to loving Turkey. Chalks posted:I see where you're coming from. I'm not opposed to the idea that all Russians who remain in Russia (apart from those brave souls who are attempting to resist or protest) are to some extent complicit in what's happening and I get the impulse to want to punish them for this. It makes sense, and if you could tell me that those Russians would see this happening and take a good look at themselves and feel bad about what their country was doing as a result then yeah, absolutely, lets do this.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:28
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Those photos from the airfield are pretty  . That's one hell of a loss of irreplaceable aircraft for Russia.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:40
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Has the US DoD made any statement on estimated loss of aircraft in that incident? I tend to find those briefings to be most reliable.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:45
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Discendo Vox posted:Has the US DoD made any statement on estimated loss of aircraft in that incident? I tend to find those briefings to be most reliable. It was stated that the munition used wasn't provided by the US. On the other hand, there may have been guidance components provided but that's just speculation.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:48
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Belling Cat says the craters from the explosions at the airport seem to be about 20 - 25 meters across. https://twitter.com/eliothiggins/status/1557472457350594560?s=21&t=CwWBjhvSoapRCV_3m_zoMg
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Aug 10, 2022 23:48
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Mr. Apollo posted:Belling Cat says the craters from the explosions at the airport seem to be about 20 - 25 meters across. I'm cool with any scenario though.
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Aug 10, 2022 23:59
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mobby_6kl posted:Tourist visa policy isn't going to cause regime change, nobody is claiming that. I suspect you meant to quote Fishbulbia, but I wasn't really addressing what influence visa bans might have on the Putin regime's stability. I agree that visa bans likely will have basically no effect one way or the other. I am totally supportive of sanctions that undermine the Russian war machine, even if they harm the civilian economy as a side effect (like cratering car production), but closing avenues for dissidents to escape seems like it does real harm for relatively little real benefit.
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Aug 11, 2022 00:00
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Didn't they lose a bunch in Syria with a similar strike?
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Aug 11, 2022 00:18
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Neorxenawang posted:...does real harm for relatively little real benefit. https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1557410695444144128 Tourism issue is not just tourism issue. Russian public opinion interprets it as the marker of the *real* attitude of Europe. When Macron/Scholz express a deep concern, Russian public either laughs over it or interprets it as the de facto endorsement. Empty words, no action Visa ban may be a small action, but it is an action. Unlike words visa ban has nonzero value. This can and will be interpreted as Europe being *actually* upset about what's happening in Ukraine and probably even somewhat angry. It's a sign of actual, unironic disapproval To sum up. Any signs of business as usual, including tourism, are viewed as acceptance/endorsement of Russia's policies. Russian people are no idiots. They get that if Russia's behaviour is unpunished, it means Russia got away with it.
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Aug 11, 2022 00:31
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the popes toes posted:Hard disagree. Eccentric, occasional nutcase Kamil Galeev makes a decent argument. Are the economic sanctions not obvious to the Russian populace already? I have no opinion on the visa thing but my reading is that it is a reaction against that Russian tourist harassing people in Austria that went viral on reddit.
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Aug 11, 2022 00:43
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WarpedLichen posted:Are the economic sanctions not obvious to the Russian populace already? I have no opinion on the visa thing but my reading is that it is a reaction against that Russian tourist harassing people in Austria that went viral on reddit. I don't know how impactful or even visible the sanctions are on the middle class, the tourist class. But I would hazard that the sanctions are viewed as wholly American, something one can escape or get a vacation from in playground Europe.
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Aug 11, 2022 00:49
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the popes toes posted:Hard disagree. Eccentric, occasional nutcase Kamil Galeev makes a decent argument. Aww Toomas deleted the tweet where he declared that a Ukrainian was actually a Russian emigre. https://twitter.com/yudbrit/status/1557440250716139520
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Aug 11, 2022 00:58
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WarpedLichen posted:Are the economic sanctions not obvious to the Russian populace already? I have no opinion on the visa thing but my reading is that it is a reaction against that Russian tourist harassing people in Austria that went viral on reddit. The government is still desperately trying to keep plates spinning and balls in the air. It hasn't all crashed yet for the people in the cities, but it eventually will.
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Aug 11, 2022 01:16
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FishBulbia posted:Aww Toomas deleted the tweet where he declared that a Ukrainian was actually a Russian emigre. https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1557285900580798464
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Aug 11, 2022 01:23
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The moral of the story is there needed to be two Berlin walls.
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Aug 11, 2022 01:27
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This airfield in Belarus was used extensively by Russia. No video or audio yet and two isn't enough for a trend buuuut https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1557499567557443590?t=uIPRVrts82COrCb3j45qfg&s=19 Meanwhile Ukraine lost a Bayraktar. It's from the first batch of em Ukraine got, so it appears the Russian tales of drone death have been somewhat exaggerated https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1557511572259577858?t=K7oBkyGsmI2floREpemTOg&s=19 Maps pt 1 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1557482676784955395?t=zxrIlVGsPCO6AsjxoLKu4w&s=19 Maps pt 2 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1557414506438983683?t=NYzqBQZpXZ1mlF5cCBAibQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1557414523950305286?t=WwxzGHzuhQrX7oGs0nXXGg&s=19
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Aug 11, 2022 01:27
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HonorableTB posted:Edit: Ah drat seems to be footage from 2018, but it's entirely believable otherwise based on what we've seen so far Honestly, I'm very much in favor of inflatable fakes strewn everywhere to attract strikes, because it works at an interestingly low price point. Russia may be again demonstrating how to undercut basic strategy / war methodology via incompetence and poor supply, though, because lurking drones and other forms of new reconnaissance will very easily figure out which are the decoys, if your decoys are poorly secured and strangely rotund ones pulling Wacky Inflatable Artillery Tube Man in the slightest breeze
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Aug 11, 2022 01:56
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Chalks posted:You may be right, in my head the fascists are going on holiday to Crimea as they're being urged to by their propaganda and they would probably be viewed suspiciously by their patriotic neighbours if they went on holiday to Poland in the same way many people in this thread would have questions if you or I booked a holiday to Russia. The Russian equivalent to MAGA chuds sure. But the Russian equivalent to still Trump voting country club assholes is def still going to Paris, Rome, and Amsterdam.
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Aug 11, 2022 02:29
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FishBulbia posted:We should also then surly restrict immigration from China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, right? No one is talking about immigration, and considering this is the second time you've attempted to hijack the discussion in that direction I think you're well aware of this.
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Aug 11, 2022 02:31
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On a tourism ban: I’m much more interested in actions that will reduce the ability of Russia to wage war; less so signaling to Russians that Europe is very upset. Europe has bought billions in fossil fuels that are financing the war for Russia. Maybe they can show off their superior moral position once the EU stops shoveling in hard currency that is generating Ukrainian corpses.
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Aug 11, 2022 02:33
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Grape posted:No one is talking about immigration, and considering this is the second time you've attempted to hijack the discussion in that direction I think you're well aware of this. Again, a tourist visa is the easiest way to flee. How exactly do you expect Russians to get out of their country, much less move to a new one, without visas?
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Aug 11, 2022 02:40
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Aug 11, 2022 03:40
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FishBulbia posted:Again, a tourist visa is the easiest way to flee. How exactly do you expect Russians to get out of their country, much less move to a new one, without visas? There are other visa types than tourist visa. You do realize that Russians are not automatically granted asylum because Russia is considered a safe country? They can apply for asylum but that doesn't mean that they won't be turned back.
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Aug 11, 2022 04:35
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FishBulbia posted:Again, a tourist visa is the easiest way to flee. How exactly do you expect Russians to get out of their country, much less move to a new one, without visas? I don't think the average Ukrainian gives a flying gently caress about Russians who can afford to travel, whether they're trying to escape or not.
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Aug 11, 2022 05:12
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Nenonen posted:There are other visa types than tourist visa. You do realize that Russians are not automatically granted asylum because Russia is considered a safe country? They can apply for asylum but that doesn't mean that they won't be turned back. And? They should grant them asylum though, along with the Ukrainian refugees who are being turned away too of course by the same bureaucracies set up with racist aims. Immigration makes countries stronger, its a win win. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Aug 11, 2022 |
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Aug 11, 2022 05:32
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I discussed this a long time ago. My statement was the first major strike in Crimea from ATACMS and we'd see instant flight from crimea because it would mean they could be trapped if the bridge were to have a fire safety violation. Obviously wrong weapon but right idea. The flight of the tourists is a very bad sign for Russia. The veil is being lifted by Ukrainian missiles. You can't say the war is going well when an air base explodes Infront of you and it's probably the loudest thing you've ever heard which will mentally shake the duck out of you. These people are probably going to be coerced not to say a thing about what just happened Infront of them to keep the narrative cohesive. Just a crazy level of damage dollar wise for a single missile which Ukraine has what like 3 of? 2 of which used in the Moskva? Are they making more at this point?
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Aug 11, 2022 05:41
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Based on those satellite photos, it had to of been multiple missiles (if it was missiles at all). It will mostly be speculation until we get some official statements by NATO/Western governments saying what it was.
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Aug 11, 2022 05:44
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