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https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1558275217570508800 Putin is moving Russia to a war time economy. Coupled with the low key conscription and recruiting surge, in my wholly unqualified opinion we're staring at a massive surge of personnel and equipment by spring of next year. This war is nowhere near to ending soon, and I'm getting the feeling that Putin is in this until the bitter end.
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Aug 13, 2022 18:24
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As I've said many times, I feel like NATO must intervene in some way, as this is a crisis for Europe, not just Ukraine.
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Aug 13, 2022 18:29
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"Why is Nato fighting to the last Ukrainian?!" Putin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0iAcQVIokg
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Aug 13, 2022 18:29
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A.o.D. posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1558275217570508800 I doubt it matters. He's already burned up all the troops who would train anyone new, he's running out of the resources to build up domestic manufacturing with, and even if he had troops and supplies, he couldn't out gun NATO. It's gonna be a long grueling fight that won't end for decade(s), but he can't *win*. His only realistic chance at victory is in about two years and even that probably just got torpedoed by a search warrant in Florida.
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Aug 13, 2022 18:31
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Pine Cone Jones posted:As I've said many times, I feel like NATO must intervene in some way, as this is a crisis for Europe, not just Ukraine. NATO has intervened in lots of ways. Those ways just don't include direct combat with Russia, Belarus, etc.
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Aug 13, 2022 18:37
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Western and Ukrainian will to fight crapping out this winter in face of a stalemated front and painful economic malaise seems entirely possible tbh
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Aug 13, 2022 18:41
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mlmp08 posted:NATO has intervened in lots of ways. Those ways just don't include direct combat with Russia, Belarus, etc. That is true, I'm just frustrated and wish we were doing or could do more. It's deeply frustrating to see the russian war crimes and suffering of civilians when we have the ability to alleviate the suffering.
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Aug 13, 2022 18:43
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aphid_licker posted:Western and Ukrainian will to fight crapping out this winter in face of a stalemated front and painful economic malaise seems entirely possible tbh Western? Perhaps. Ukrainian? No way in hell. They know the cost of failure all too well. For a lot of them, the price of Russian mastery will be a horrible, undignified death.
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Aug 13, 2022 18:56
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The minute BASF doesn’t get enough natural gas feedstock to run all of its chemical plants at full utilization, German leadership will demand an end to the conflict.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:06
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aphid_licker posted:Western and Ukrainian will to fight crapping out this winter in face of a stalemated front and painful economic malaise seems entirely possible tbh lol
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Aug 13, 2022 19:08
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A.o.D. posted:Western? Perhaps. Ukrainian? No way in hell. They know the cost of failure all too well. For a lot of them, the price of Russian mastery will be a horrible, undignified death. For Ukraine it's life & death, surrender will just be a slower death in my view. Us in the West; those who notice the war going on will hope Ukraine survives (politics & money dictate what the leaders will do). Former Eastern Block for the most part really want russia to stay the hell away from everyone else they share a border with tbh. USA gets to hollow out russia with no US lives lost (barring volunteers). Russia wasted a lot of their best troops and then shoved those who train the troops into the same pyre, rather a thoughtless action if they want to try continuing a possibly long term war. I assume they don't want to acknowledge that a swift victory is a dream long gone.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:15
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in a well actually posted:The minute BASF doesn’t get enough natural gas feedstock to run all of its chemical plants at full utilization, German leadership will demand an end to the conflict. I really wish we could just ship all of the ATACMS over there before that happens.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:15
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Stultus Maximus posted:I really wish we could just ship all of the ATACMS over there before that happens. german leadership can demand all they want, doesn't mean it's going to happen.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:20
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A.o.D. posted:Putin is moving Russia to a war time economy. Coupled with the low key conscription and recruiting surge, in my wholly unqualified opinion we're staring at a massive surge of personnel and equipment by spring of next year. This war is nowhere near to ending soon, and I'm getting the feeling that Putin is in this until the bitter end. If the western nations can continue to grind Russias military and economy into the dust by continuing to supply easily manageable quantities of material and support to Ukraine then they will happily do so indefinitely. Maybe I’ll be eating my words next spring but I don’t see Russia resuming any kind of dynamic offense no matter how many people they rush through training, poorly equip and shove forward and the longer this war continues the more capable Ukraine’s defense becomes. ‘Defending to the last Ukrainian’ is wholly within the wests interests but it’s not going to ever be close to that. Edit: An western aligned and modern industrialized Ukraine is very much in the wests long term interests as well. Murgos fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Aug 13, 2022 |
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Aug 13, 2022 19:25
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Trying to return to the status quo with Russia will probably end up a political death sentence unless there's a sudden surge of support for Russia.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:28
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I don’t know what you have to be smoking to think the Ukrainian motivation might crap out. The Russians have demonstrated that would only end with purges and ethnic cleaning.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:30
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aphid_licker posted:Western . . . will to fight crapping out Dude, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are making so much money off of this their executives are all having to buy three-legged pants and that's on top of the war in afghanistan finally ending which was their other major revenue source and this one's even better because no American soldiers are getting shot and they're finally getting to use up all the fancy hardware they spent forty years developing to fight Soviet poo poo This war will be funded to the last possible dollar. Like the meme says, Russia is finding out why Americans don't have healthcare.
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Aug 13, 2022 19:53
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It's a dumb line, the US can have universal healthcare any time it decides it wants to and it wouldn't have to cut a dollar of military spending.
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Aug 13, 2022 20:15
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It's a great line, even if it's not literally true, mr robot.
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Aug 13, 2022 20:51
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A.o.D. posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1558275217570508800 they've been surging the recruiting for several months already. russia has moved quietly but significantly to a war footing back in may/june if anything, it just wasn't super publicized or hyped the same way capital M Mobilization would be agreed otherwise. historically russia stays involved with clusterfucks for years and years and years, albeit historically they haven't been involved in a clusterfuck that killed this many people or this much of their materiel in a very long time either
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Aug 13, 2022 21:08
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Herstory Begins Now posted:historically russia stays involved with clusterfucks for years and years and years, albeit historically they haven't been involved in a clusterfuck that killed this many people or this much of their materiel in a very long time either When do we get Rambo 6 dedicated to the brave fighters of the Azov battalion?
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Aug 13, 2022 21:31
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Soylent Pudding posted:When do we get Rambo 6 dedicated to the brave fighters of the Azov battalion? July 4th, 2023 - Only in theaters
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Aug 13, 2022 21:36
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I proposed in CD that the Ivan drago spinoff should be him deciding to fight the invading Russian army. It’s a stealth Red Scorpion sequel
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Aug 13, 2022 23:58
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Alan Smithee posted:I proposed in CD that the Ivan drago spinoff should be him deciding to fight the invading Russian army. It’s a stealth Red Scorpion sequel Starring Dolph Lundgren with all of his chemical engineering expertise.
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Aug 14, 2022 00:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:they've been surging the recruiting for several months already. russia has moved quietly but significantly to a war footing back in may/june if anything, it just wasn't super publicized or hyped the same way capital M Mobilization would be They've been offering recruiting bonuses of 2-5k but there's questions about how effective the drive has been. Plus the equipment and training they receive is variable as its more on the states that raise them. It looks like they are then sent mostly piecemeal to the front lines is the gist I got. So basically no real force generation is coming from it.
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Aug 14, 2022 00:06
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Generation Internet posted:"Why did you think that [the Russians attacking you] were a Wagner unit?" In one of the first GIP Secret Santa events, I made a coffee mug with that phrase.
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Aug 14, 2022 00:46
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Yeah, that's just a blanket statement of not buying the political class's bullshit, not a statement that "I am a mercenary."
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Aug 14, 2022 01:39
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That was always my reasoning for going to hockey games 
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Aug 14, 2022 01:45
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Who would voluntarily join the Russian army at this point? ...and yet, I almost joined the US Army in 2005 (when this subforum was just a big thread in GBS or something) when they were fighting two wars and were taking anybody with a pulse. Thankfully, my dumbass ended up in the USAF instead. Godholio posted:In one of the first GIP Secret Santa events, I made a coffee mug with that phrase. Jimmy Smuts fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Aug 14, 2022 |
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Aug 14, 2022 02:37
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Jimmy Smuts posted:Who would voluntarily join the Russian army at this point? Well it's a good thing the US air force wasn't fighting two wars at that time. e: lightpole posted:They've been offering recruiting bonuses of 2-5k but there's questions about how effective the drive has been. Plus the equipment and training they receive is variable as its more on the states that raise them. It looks like they are then sent mostly piecemeal to the front lines is the gist I got. So basically no real force generation is coming from it. Per the latest ISW report, they haven't been paying them either. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13 psydude fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Aug 14, 2022 |
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Aug 14, 2022 06:34
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lol wrote a post about that but forgot to hit post earlierlightpole posted:They've been offering recruiting bonuses of 2-5k but there's questions about how effective the drive has been. Plus the equipment and training they receive is variable as its more on the states that raise them. It looks like they are then sent mostly piecemeal to the front lines is the gist I got. So basically no real force generation is coming from it. It was certainly effective in terms of getting a lot of people. Additionally pay was ~$3k/mo, which is a ton in all but the wealthiest parts of Russia, plus there was a promised generous compensation for getting injured and a significant on death payout. It does appear that they injury payment quickly got more or less completely canceled outside of something like a loss of an arm or a leg. There's also been a lot of noise from Russian social media that it's been hard to get paid in full and that there was a significant amount of fuckery around actually getting out of the warzone after a contract ended.
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Aug 14, 2022 07:54
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“Congratulations Yuri, your contract has ended! Sign this form and you can go…” *hurriedly signs* “… back to the front! Thanks for reenlisting”
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Aug 14, 2022 15:36
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psydude posted:Well it's a good thing the US air force wasn't fighting two wars at that time. ...and then after a few years, I stupidly volunteered to deploy to Afghanistan anyway. It's me, I'm the idiot
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Aug 14, 2022 21:02
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Jimmy Smuts posted:The idea was better to be working in an office stateside or at a safe overseas location, rather than be constantly deployed in a combat zone. I mean, most of us were that idiot, or we wouldn't be posting here.
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Aug 14, 2022 21:39
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I enlisted in the 80s stayed into the 90s and wound up getting deployed to Honduras, Panama, Kuwait, and Somalia! What's this Afghani-thingy? Isn't that where all the Soviets are?
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Aug 15, 2022 00:54
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Herstory Begins Now posted:they've been surging the recruiting for several months already. russia has moved quietly but significantly to a war footing back in may/june if anything, it just wasn't super publicized or hyped the same way capital M Mobilization would be https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1552921299693064194?s=20&t=Fo79cybK_4oQb4wU2wHA2Q Take this with a grain of salt but its an interesting view from supposed Russian volunteers about their training, what they have been going through, and why they are quiting.
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Aug 15, 2022 02:44
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JudgeJoeBrown posted:https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1552921299693064194?s=20&t=Fo79cybK_4oQb4wU2wHA2Q https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1552922092483407872?t=qgVIrcdluk7JlEKY2DWXkQ&s=19 Jesus christ
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Aug 15, 2022 08:01
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This war kicked off towards the very end of Winter. I cannot fathom how brutal it will become if it lasts to this Winter. Frozen grounds would give the tanks a little more options to maneuver since the mud this spring kept them on the roads, making them very juicy targets.
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Aug 15, 2022 12:47
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It's the middle of summer and dry right now, there's nothing keeping tanks from being used besides the fact that the UA has a massic amount of anti tank weapons and the training to use them along with Russia losing so many in the opening parts of the war. I don't think you'll suddenly see another massive surge by winter going by how it looks to be now.
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Aug 15, 2022 15:26
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1552922092483407872?t=qgVIrcdluk7JlEKY2DWXkQ&s=19 Is that a Kornet?
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Aug 15, 2022 15:30
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