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DropsySufferer
Nov 9, 2008

Impractical practicality

PhazonLink posted:

just repeating that thumb drives, portable drives in AC office drawers go bad, a drive in a hot wet mass of decaying mass where rainwater might be acid or basic , or even swap is going to be hosed.

like even a telfon coated solid brick would probably have warping and stress cracks.

Also garbage trucks compact garbage with a hydraulic press. So we can expect the drive to be crushed.

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Durzel
Nov 15, 2005


Tsietisin posted:

The guy that threw away his Hard Drive with 8,000 Bitcoins was on the radio here a few moments ago.

He didn't come over great and I do have to wonder what allegations against the local council he was making at the end. Something that the presenter needed to shut him down before he libelled himself it seems.

If anyone wants to listen, its starts at 1:06:06 here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001b4y6
Imagine working for Newport council and having to deal with a call from this guy, or his VC buddies, or cryptobros every other day, if not more often, asking the same questions over and over again in different ways...

They've categorically told him that it can't happen and they're not legally allowed to let it happen, but 9 years on he is still consumed by it.

I don't know if Vanessa Feltz (the interviewer) is naturally dripping with sarcasm and skepticism with all her guests, but I particularly enjoyed the fact she unashamedly didn't know or care to know anyting about Bitcoin, and treated his arguments with the amusement and scorn they deserved.

And +1 on him defaming the council about "the sort of material they are burying there". Completely what you'd expect from someone who has lost their God drat mind bashing their head against a wall for 9 years.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Somfin posted:

That's the secret actual floor price, removing it means that there is nothing underneath all of the speculation. Up until now all PoW crypto has been backed by needing to pay the industrial scale miner electrical bills.

It's going to loving zero. The market is too manipulated to actually short, but it's going to loving zero.

How does PoW "back" the crypto price? That doesn't make any sense.

Tsietisin
Jul 2, 2004

Time passes quickly on the weekend.

Durzel posted:

And +1 on him defaming the council about "the sort of material they are burying there". Completely what you'd expect from someone who has lost their God drat mind bashing their head against a wall for 9 years.

I wonder if he is referring to all the child porn on the hard drive encoded into the bitcoin network.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
Just got 100% out of crypto until that poo poo stops looking ponzi ish (read: probably will never change). Feels good.

Seeing people attempting to defend tornadocash is still hilarious, especially in light of tether. I would love to see tether collapse the market.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



The only problem crypto solves is the problem of needing new ways to scam people.

Picardy Beet
Feb 7, 2006

Singing in the summer.

HappyHippo posted:

How does PoW "back" the crypto price? That doesn't make any sense.

PoW leads to a cost (electricity bills, cost of materials + other utilities) , but as the price is purely speculative by design and crypto have no utility, I agree with you, nothing makes sense

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

HappyHippo posted:

How does PoW "back" the crypto price? That doesn't make any sense.

Because people have to churn worthless calculations to authenticate the blockchain (which mining is part of), which means that the rewards have to at least match the price of electricity. If the miners aren't at least breaking even over the long term they start pulling back, which jerks around the difficulty of the mining, making it more profitable for the ones that remain.

Untethering it to the price of electricity means that there really isn't a natural floor.

Which is good, because it also destroys the incentive to use up more electricity than loving individual countries on doing internet libertarian sudokus.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



HappyHippo posted:

How does PoW "back" the crypto price? That doesn't make any sense.

The view I heard on this is that spending electricity on PoW is equivalent to locking gold into Fort Knox. By removing a scarce resource from the world, you transfer that resource's value onto the currency.


Why yes, there IS an immense obvious hole in that comparison. It's just a sham to rope-in gold-standard zealots into the ponzi scheme.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Picardy Beet posted:

PoW leads to a cost (electricity bills, cost of materials + other utilities) , but as the price is purely speculative by design and crypto have no utility, I agree with you, nothing makes sense

My understanding is that the difficulty of mining a block scales to the hashrate of the entire network. So in a hypothetical world where the entire etherium network is three computers with GTX970s in them it's going to be really easy, and in one where it's a billion RTX3090Ti's it's going to be really hard. It's also much cheaper in terms of electricity to run the former than the latter. So once the current mining rate per hour isn't paying the electrical bills you'll have miners start to drop off, but that in turn eases up the difficulty. This makes it easier, and eases up the electrical costs for the remaining pool.

Now, if there's a huge positive delta between the price of electricity and the price of Ether congrats you're in 2020 and good loving luck finding a graphics card.

This is also part of why a lot of countries are chasing these assholes out. If you have either fully or partially state subsidized power it's basically a direct wealth transfer from the state and taxpayers to mining pricks via the intermediary of huge carbon emissions.

Picardy Beet
Feb 7, 2006

Singing in the summer.

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Just got 100% out of crypto until that poo poo stops looking ponzi ish (read: probably will never change). Feels good.

Seeing people attempting to defend tornadocash is still hilarious, especially in light of tether. I would love to see tether collapse the market.

On the subject of "what kind of scam is it, and has it permitted by design or just stupidity ?", the last entry on David Rosenthal's blog is quite informative

https://blog.dshr.org/2022/08/investment-frauds.html

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur
I wonder how El Salvador is doing.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Cyrano4747 posted:

Because people have to churn worthless calculations to authenticate the blockchain (which mining is part of), which means that the rewards have to at least match the price of electricity. If the miners aren't at least breaking even over the long term they start pulling back, which jerks around the difficulty of the mining, making it more profitable for the ones that remain.

Untethering it to the price of electricity means that there really isn't a natural floor.

Which is good, because it also destroys the incentive to use up more electricity than loving individual countries on doing internet libertarian sudokus.

I'm reading this and I don't see how it puts a "floor" on the price. It's the opposite: whatever the price is, the difficulty naturally adjusts until miners are (barely) making a profit. Plenty of $0.0001754 shitcoins are being mined too.

This is actually the argument that crypto bros make: that just because work was spent to produce something, it must therefore be valuable. Which is obviously incorrect.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Here's a randomly googled graph of the etherium mining difficulty over the last ~8 years. No I have no idea what that unit of measure is, but it tells you the rough story:




Here's the price chart over the same time period:



They don't correlate 1:1, but they are related. Note in particular the drop in mining difficulty about the same time as the crash in prices around 7/21 - mining (briefly) became less valuable than electricity, so people pulled out.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Supply Side Currency.


I might actually start using that.

edit:

Cyrano4747 posted:

They don't correlate 1:1, but they are related. Note in particular the drop in mining difficulty about the same time as the crash in prices around 7/21 - mining (briefly) became less valuable than electricity, so people pulled out.

Right, but peopled pulled out because the price crashed. If mining was driving the price, it would have been the other way around.

Aramis fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Aug 25, 2022

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

HappyHippo posted:

I'm reading this and I don't see how it puts a "floor" on the price. It's the opposite: whatever the price is, the difficulty naturally adjusts until miners are (barely) making a profit. Plenty of $0.0001754 shitcoins are being mined too.

This is actually the argument that crypto bros make: that just because work was spent to produce something, it must therefore be valuable. Which is obviously incorrect.

It doesn't put a hard floor on the price, but it creates a relationship between the price of the input (electricity) and the number of people producing the shitcoins. Electricity cost is the big variable right now, which is why there's a race to the bottom of miners trying to go places with the cheapest electricity possible. For a single area (e.g. electricity in Texas or electricity in China) It's also a relatively fixed cost, at least over the short time spans that we're talking about here. The price or a KWh is going to hold more or less steady (again, on the time frame that we're talking about with crypto fluctuations) which is going to drive some producers out, which in turn both eases up the difficulty (and production cost in electricity) as well as tightening the supply of new coins.

For them the absolute value is pointless, because what they're interested in is the delta between the cost of electricity and the value of the coins they're producing. Are there true believer hodlers out there who are going to mine at a loss forever because of lambos on the moon? Sure, but everything I've seen points to them being dwarfed by the commercial mining outfits that are just interested in churning out profits today.

Going to POS decouples that. It reduces the cost of the primary input to essentially zero, which is going to do some interesting things to the actual price.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

Aramis posted:

Supply Side Currency.


I might actually start using that.

edit:

Right, but peopled pulled out because the price crashed. If mining was driving the price, it would have been the other way around.

yes, and the smaller mining pool means that it then became easier to mine and therefore cheaper in terms of electricity, which means a larger profit margin for the remaining miners, which drives people back into the pool.

It's not just a two variable problem, it's a multi-variable issue. You've got the market value of the coins, the fixed (relative to the speed the rest of this moves) price of electricity, the number of miners, and the difficulty of mining.

Being dependent on industrial scale electrical consumption means that when the price drops below a point where it's profitable the other two variables - mining difficulty and number of miners - move to compensate, and eventually you're in an equilibrium where it's minimally profitable enough to make back the money you're spending on electricity.

None of this is natural law type poo poo, there's no reason you coudln't crash below production costs permanently, but at that point we're talking a full network collapse which isn't something we've been blessed enough to experience. On the flip side you can also have value way above production cost, which is when you get burning mountains of graphics cards.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Cyrano4747 posted:

yes, and the smaller mining pool means that it then became easier to mine and therefore cheaper in terms of electricity, which means a larger profit margin for the remaining miners, which drives people back into the pool.

The equilibrium is the difficulty where the cost-per-coin (plus fees) is approximately the amount of electricity it takes to mine (it's basically a zero-profit condition). But the relationship is entirely in one direction. There's no mechanism by which the cost of electricity can hold the price up.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Maybe I'm missing something here. I do not see anything within this whole explanation that exerts pressure on the price itself. To my ears, it sounds like saying that you can increase Voltage in an electrical circuit by increasing the Resistance because V = R*I.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Cyrano4747 posted:

Because people have to churn worthless calculations to authenticate the blockchain (which mining is part of), which means that the rewards have to at least match the price of electricity. If the miners aren't at least breaking even over the long term they start pulling back, which jerks around the difficulty of the mining, making it more profitable for the ones that remain.

Untethering it to the price of electricity means that there really isn't a natural floor.

Which is good, because it also destroys the incentive to use up more electricity than loving individual countries on doing internet libertarian sudokus.

You are correct that price and difficulty are going to be correlated. You are getting the correlation backwards, however.

At any given difficulty, there's a marginal cost per coin - and if there's a big difference between the two, that will lead to adding or subtracting mining hardware so that the difficulty changes until the marginal cost of mining a new coin is roughly the same as the current price. So the changes in price should lead changes in difficulty (and not the other way around).

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

evilweasel posted:

You are correct that price and difficulty are going to be correlated. You are getting the correlation backwards, however.

At any given difficulty, there's a marginal cost per coin - and if there's a big difference between the two, that will lead to adding or subtracting mining hardware so that the difficulty changes until the marginal cost of mining a new coin is roughly the same as the current price. So the changes in price should lead changes in difficulty (and not the other way around).

Yeah you're right. I've got it all backward in my head.

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

I wonder how El Salvador is doing.

apparently doing the next best thing to a scam, locking everyone up:

when your money is tight and you're holding the bag, just crack down on the people and keep yourself from getting questioned.

Spazzle
Jul 5, 2003

If anything, mining drives down the price due to the constant need to sell to buy more electricity.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
A fair few people still genuinely believe Bitcoins act like batteries and you can somehow get the electricity back by 'spending' them.

Olanphonia
Jul 27, 2006

I'm open to suggestions~
Any news on the nugencoin guy? I remember it getting soft rug pulled last month.

Mr. Merdle
Oct 17, 2007

THE GREAT MANBABY SUCCESSOR

Tsietisin posted:

The guy that threw away his Hard Drive with 8,000 Bitcoins was on the radio here a few moments ago.

He didn't come over great and I do have to wonder what allegations against the local council he was making at the end. Something that the presenter needed to shut him down before he libelled himself it seems.

If anyone wants to listen, its starts at 1:06:06 here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001b4y6

Hahahahahaha I loaded this up without reading about the timestamp and was skipping around to find the right point, and as soon as I heard his voice, I was like "yep this is our guy, this sounds like a bitcoiner"

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Spazzle posted:

If anything, mining drives down the price due to the constant need to sell to buy more electricity.

Apparently a bunch of miners (even industrial grade ones) are hodl true believers, holding the coins they mined and taking out loans with those coins (and their mining equipment) as collateral. Many of them have been forced to sell in the "bear market" though: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitfarms-sold-3k-bitcoin-as-part-of-strategy-to-improve-liquidity-and-pay-debts

Edit:

HappyHippo fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Aug 25, 2022

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Ghost Leviathan posted:

A fair few people still genuinely believe Bitcoins act like batteries and you can somehow get the electricity back by 'spending' them.

Its because they are taking an overly convoluted way of describing money - you can turn electricity into work, the work product into money, and the money can buy other things (like more electricity).

Of course, that doesnt make it into a battery any more than a £10 note is. You also cant un-burn the coal, etc

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1435618793036959748?lang=en

LifeSunDeath
Jan 4, 2007

still gay rights and smoke weed every day

Cocaine is real, and it makes people talk like this.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010
god those people are so god damned stupid and culty.

Macichne Leainig
Jul 26, 2012

by VG
This digital energy which relies entirely on electricity and the Internet can also transcend the limitations of those two exact things

Those boulders they traded ownership of thousands of years ago still make more sense.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
https://twitter.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1562153763845967872

Elias_Maluco
Aug 23, 2007
I need to sleep
I dont think these people understand what is bitcoin and how it works

edit: is the kind of argument that so absurd and stupid is actually impossible to argue against. You cant engage it, you cant even begin to tell whats wrong about it. Is just pure nonsense, is like trying to argue against a monty python sketch

Elias_Maluco fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Aug 25, 2022

Macichne Leainig
Jul 26, 2012

by VG

Elias_Maluco posted:

I dont think these people understand what is bitcoin and how it works

They do understand 2 things:

1. Cocaine
2. Money

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Consuming mere 0.0001 Bitcoin a day will supply you with 100% of your recommended dietary allowance of nutrients and vitamins. Sink your teeth into its digital flesh, receive its sustenance, absorb the bits into your bloodstream.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

Protocol7 posted:

This digital energy which relies entirely on electricity and the Internet can also transcend the limitations of those two exact things


I like the evolution of the word digit. like its from latin for fingers and toes, then slang for numbers, and now its some magical spell bark.

Macichne Leainig
Jul 26, 2012

by VG

PhazonLink posted:

I like the evolution of the word digit. like its from latin for fingers and toes, then slang for numbers, and now its some magical spell bark.

I like your post. It is very digital

Soapy_Bumslap
Jun 19, 2013

We're gonna need a bigger chode
Grimey Drawer

Elias_Maluco posted:

the kind of argument that so absurd and stupid is actually impossible to argue against. You cant engage it, you cant even begin to tell whats wrong about it. Is just pure nonsense, is like trying to argue against a monty python sketch

Bitcoin!

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Betjeman
Jul 14, 2004

Biker, Biker, Biker GROOVE!

That is mental

This is the guy with billions invested in them right? Does he not have any stakeholders to answer to or is it all his own money?

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