|
cinci zoo sniper posted:They haven’t, in my understanding. Shoygu’s reformist predecessor, unpopular with grifters, did try to, however. Seriously? They've had that ineffective centrally-controlled air defense system thus entire time? If Ukraine gets more airframes and trained pilots (admittedly, months out at best) this war could get mobile very quickly.
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 16:43
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 14:25 |
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Claiming that Ukraine's democratic move to the West was not what provided Russia the immediate impetus for invasion in 2014 You were claiming that? Or someone else was? Are these the "imperialists"? I'm trying to unpack this argument here but you aren't making it easy to follow. FWIW, I think if there hadn't been a revolution, there would have been a repeat of the process in Belarus, where Russia gradually assumed de facto control. Essentially the perceived political weakness in Ukraine made them a target of opportunity. I don't think it was inevitable in Ukraine, although Putin's speech made it clear he was aggrieved by Ukrainian independence in a way that he was not about say Finland or even Georgia, so probably a lot would have had to have gone right.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:04
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Russian TV continues to be extremely hinged Is there any point in this saber rattling other than trying to scare the West from supporting Ukraine further? This poo poo is getting old
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:20
|
|
|
saratoga posted:You were claiming that? Or someone else was? Are these the "imperialists"? I'm trying to unpack this argument here but you aren't making it easy to follow. The realist argument is that Russia would not allow Ukraine to be oriented in a hostile block, and therefore invaded to conquer as much of Ukraine as it could or in best case bring it back into its sphere. The imperial argument is that Russia fundamentally does not care about Ukraines actions and would attempt to conquer it no matter what, as long as it had a revisionist leader.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:24
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Is there any point in this saber rattling other than trying to scare the West from supporting Ukraine further? This poo poo is getting old To scare Russians into supporting the war effort against a dark enemy that wants to destroy them.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:27
|
|
|
Lum_ posted:To scare Russians into supporting the war effort against a dark enemy that wants to destroy them. They've been doing this for six months now though. Is it actually effective?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:28
|
|
|
Lum_ posted:To scare Russians into supporting the war effort against a dark enemy that wants to destroy them. Not sure, I think it’s the other way around. Like a “it doesn’t matter that we lose every single tank and male aged 16-45 in this hellwar, if the West wants to attack us we will unleash armageddon, so stop complaining about the special military operation, citizen” kinda deal
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:31
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:The realist argument is that Russia would not allow Ukraine to be oriented in a hostile block, and therefore invaded to conquer as much of Ukraine as it could or in best case bring it back into its sphere. The imperial argument is that Russia fundamentally does not care about Ukraines actions and would attempt to conquer it no matter what, as long as it had a revisionist leader. To add to this, polemicists reject the realist model as it implies that Ukraine could've avoided the invasion by remaining oriented to Russia. They also reject the model proposed by mearsheimer as he goes further and claims that Ukraine's westward move was bad policy as western aid would be insufficient to prevent Ukraine from losing the war he predicted.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:32
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Is there any point in this saber rattling other than trying to scare the West from supporting Ukraine further? This poo poo is getting old We aren't the audience. The goal is to keep nervous Russians pacified and thinking everything will be OK-ish. Willo567 posted:They've been doing this for six months now though. Is it actually effective? Their propagandists are on the payroll and are expected to tell lies to the people. Even if its not effective, what else are they going to do? Fire him and change their programming to a straight sober news service?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:35
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Seriously? They've had that ineffective centrally-controlled air defense system thus entire time? If Ukraine gets more airframes and trained pilots (admittedly, months out at best) this war could get mobile very quickly. We may be talking about slightly different things. I meant the decision making behind what air defences go where, rather than in-the-moment fire control, which I suspect you’re actually meaning here. I have no knowledge to share regarding the state of the latter.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:45
|
|
|
“Agency” feels like kind of an odd phrase applied to the realist argument as presented here, because depending on how you view it the realist argument seems to be suggesting that NOBODY has agency, or else that only one actor (that you wish to blame) has agency. Like the central point being made here seems to be that Ukraine exploding into a pro-West revolution directly caused Russian invasion and aggression as a consequence of their actions. But even if you accept the idea that Ukraine is so fundamental to Russian interests that a response was inevitable, was a military response the only possible response, or even the best possible? Did Russia really only have one choice in how to respond, sure as water flows downhill? Meanwhile, shifting the frame slightly, could one not also argue that the Maidan revolution was a direct response and consequence to Russian diplomacy and actions towards its clients? IE that if Russia had offered its clients a better deal and didn’t meddle so much in their internal politics, that Ukrainians might not have found a pro-Russian president worth protesting? And then to shift the frame yet again, one might make the argument that Russian aggressive diplomacy is a direct consequence of NATO expansion eastwards, but NATO expansion would not have happened had not Eastern Bloc states had the memory of Russian imperial domination fresh on their minds, etc etc Like either you shift the frame just enough to declare that this or that result was the inevitable consequence of a choice you deem foolish and then ignore the rest of the chain as a foreordained fate, or else you accept that human history is a line of dominoes toppled over in Cain and Abel’s day and nobody has any choice but to react to the last inevitable consequence in entirely predictable ways. Neither feels quite accurate to reality. What am I missing here?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 17:49
|
|
|
Tomn posted:“Agency” feels like kind of an odd phrase applied to the realist argument as presented here, because depending on how you view it the realist argument seems to be suggesting that NOBODY has agency, or else that only one actor (that you wish to blame) has agency. Nothing at all. Realism is fatalism mixed with choosy exceptions. It's bankrupt crap that sounds sharp at first glance.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 18:01
|
|
|
Tomn posted:What am I missing here? As the other arguments get dismantled, as you effectively show, this argument probably remains in the Russian perspective, as the only one that matters. To a large degree, the west passively supported this idea, sometimes not so passively, when Crimea was invaded.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 18:02
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Is there any point in this saber rattling other than trying to scare the West from supporting Ukraine further? This poo poo is getting old If you want my off the cuff opinion, they do this specifically because the Russian military has shown that it is just not a credible threat to NATO at all. So for me this isn’t so much about discouraging Western arms deliveries as it is discouraging outright NATO intervention, because in the mind of the Russian state, they’d go after an opponent as weak as Russia is, so NATO must be contemplating a full scale intervention in Ukraine. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Aug 30, 2022 |
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 18:12
|
|
|
Russia did have other options than launching a military invasion in response to Maidan- they could've for example, kept Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine, which would've created something of a counterveiling force that might've had enough electoral power to reverse the situation democratically. There was probably some belief that the Minsk agreements would do just that but ultimately, holding onto Crimea and launching the military attacks in the first place polarized the country's electoral politics decidedly against Russia. There's realism arguments for several possibilities that aren't what the Russians did.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 18:28
|
|
|
Panzeh posted:Russia did have other options than launching a military invasion in response to Maidan- they could've for example, kept Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine, which would've created something of a counterveiling force that might've had enough electoral power to reverse the situation democratically. There was probably some belief that the Minsk agreements would do just that but ultimately, holding onto Crimea and launching the military attacks in the first place polarized the country's electoral politics decidedly against Russia. Those are all just different tactics for achieving the same end
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 18:35
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:To add to this, polemicists reject the realist model as it implies that Ukraine could've avoided the invasion by remaining oriented to Russia. They also reject the model proposed by mearsheimer as he goes further and claims that Ukraine's westward move was bad policy as western aid would be insufficient to prevent Ukraine from losing the war he predicted. I think the key issue is that pre-2014 both Ukrainian leadership and the Ukrainian population were quite friendly towards Russia and this still wasn't enough. From the realist perspective Russia already had a friendly buffer state and flirting with EU trade was not likely to substantially change that, but Russia still felt it necessary to strongarm Yanukovych out of the trade deal. To me this suggests that Russia's goal from the outset was complete subjugation of Ukraine, and 2014 only represented a shift in tactics rather than objective. It seems that essentially the only way for Ukraine to avoid the invasion would be to act for all intents and purposes as if they had already been invaded and conquered.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 19:24
|
|
|
Panzeh posted:
The ultimate logic of "realist" doctrine would directly imply that Russia, as a weak state with a weak economy and a weak military, should have just let the strong western powers do what they want. Somehow they never follow their own logic quite that far though. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 19:39 on Aug 30, 2022 |
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 19:35
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:The ultimate logic of "realist" doctrine would directly imply that Russia, as a weak state with a weak economy and a weak military, should have just let the strong western powers do what they want. Ultimately, pundits calling themselves foreign policy "realists" are just like a politicians claiming to have "common sense" solutions. It's just an attempt to pre-emptively legitimize your opinions and try and convince people you don't have an ideology.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 19:44
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Those are all just different tactics for achieving the same end But surely the specific tactic chosen matters both for the consequences it has and whether it serves the overall strategic goal? I mean “Russia will respond SOMEHOW to Maidan in a way that could be any combination of economic, political, diplomatic, military, covert, cooperative or coercive” is certainly a true statement but it’s also almost entirely meaningless, and not very useful for the purposes of analysis or planning. If that’s all realism has to say about it, is it saying anything at all? I mean, would you agree that a timeline in which Russia DIDN’T opt to use the specific tactic it did in response to Maidan would look pretty different and might not have resulted in either the current war or Russia’s current pariah status? And that, as such, which tactic is used is an important distinction to be made? Or would you argue that any tactic used to further the goal of bringing Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence would have inevitably led us here?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 19:55
|
|
|
 for scary sounds and explosionshttps://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1564681902660980736 e: may not be contemporary
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:17
|
|
|
Tomn posted:But surely the specific tactic chosen matters both for the consequences it has and whether it serves the overall strategic goal? I mean “Russia will respond SOMEHOW to Maidan in a way that could be any combination of economic, political, diplomatic, military, covert, cooperative or coercive” is certainly a true statement but it’s also almost entirely meaningless, and not very useful for the purposes of analysis or planning. If that’s all realism has to say about it, is it saying anything at all? Also, the tactics used offer some level of insight as to what the goal is- for example, seizing Crimea makes no sense in the context of simply neutralizing Ukraine, as Crimea was, electorally, territory that historically elected pro-russian legislators. It makes far more sense in the context of the overall goal being to seize whatever territory is possible.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:20
|
|
|
My "realism" take is that sometimes your imperial ambitions go to poo poo and your rivals seize on your apparent weakness to dismember your decaying empire. This will happen to the US and Europe, but it looks like it's Russia's turn today
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:28
|
|
|
the popes toes posted:
There's another view of the same explosion from further back. It appears to be from Kherson and tonight (unless someone is reposting another old video) https://twitter.com/Frostilicus_/status/1564693104879345670
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:31
|
|
|
Living in the future, and I cannot overstate this, is weird https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1564646677197328385?s=20&t=--vwHn70ReqrjxiRE6bzpQ This is the defense minister of Ukraine, for reference.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:32
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/geoconfirmed/status/1564684974250500097 https://twitter.com/geoconfirmed/status/1564683631351717889
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:37
|
|
|
HolHorsejob posted:My "realism" take is that sometimes your imperial ambitions go to poo poo and your rivals seize on your apparent weakness to dismember your decaying empire. most self proclaimed "realists" would agree with this take and many would consider it a historical inevitability
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:38
|
|
|
KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:most self proclaimed "realists" would agree with this take and many would consider it a historical inevitability Most empires have a 300 year shelf life. I would say with modern technology and how quickly information moves that number has gone down a lot in recent years. For reference, nobody knew for weeks that France overthrew the monarchy during the French revolution because of how slowly people and information moves. For all the hate the US gets I feel like we'll all rue the day when they collapse as we all indirectly benefit from them unless we live in some of their conflict zones.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 20:58
|
|
|
Strong statement about Crimea from a key Zelensky advisor, with commentary from another Ukrainian government advisor https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1564634412771381255?s=20&t=TB0sMLIU8D5rgnlIKvXd4A The language coming from Ukraine around Crimea has been getting more and more confident lately.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:03
|
|
|
"Deoccupation" is an interesting choice of language.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:04
|
|
|
FMguru posted:"Deoccupation" is an interesting choice of language. This and the other word you’re thinking of are constructed quite similarly in Russian, lest you wonder.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:07
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Strong statement about Crimea from a key Zelensky advisor, with commentary from another Ukrainian government advisor makes sense, the Russians colonists are fleeing now that their black sea resort has mushroom cloud views and the navy is worse then useless. beach party over, get out of the pool.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:09
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:Living in the future, and I cannot overstate this, is weird That ties nicely to prove correct the famous Einstein quote "I do not know with what weapons World War 3 will be fought, but World War 4 will be fought with memes and TikTok dances."
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:10
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:makes sense, the Russians colonists are fleeing now that their black sea resort has mushroom cloud views and the navy is worse then useless. beach party over, get out of the pool. What are the profiles we have on the settlers whove moved in since 2014? Are they upper/upper middle class types? Diehard nuts like Israeli settlers? Poor hicks moved in by the government like in North Cyprus? All of the above?
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:16
|
|
|
It is too late for this year, but in response to the food crisis, the US is offering better crop insurance coverage to farmers who agree to plant crops twice a year instead of just once, to try to have more food to export. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1564708317842251778 Rigel fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Aug 30, 2022 |
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:30
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:Most empires have a 300 year shelf life. I would say with modern technology and how quickly information moves that number has gone down a lot in recent years. [Citation Needed] [Citation Needed]
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:32
|
|
|
KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:[Citation Needed] [Citation Needed] It's kinda a meaningless statistic, anyway --- historical empires existed in very different circumstances, and applying stuff about agricultural societies to industrial ones is rather dubious. And it hasn't even been 300 years since the start of Industrial Revolution!
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:47
|
|
|
Gorbachev is spinning in his grave at what Russia has become.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:48
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Gorbachev is spinning in his grave at what Russia has become. Filthy lies. He's spinning at the morgue at this time.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 14:25 |
|
|
FMguru posted:"Deoccupation" is an interesting choice of language. "Active Deoccupation" is the kind of transliterated Russian-English terminology I'm here for.
|
|
#
?
Aug 30, 2022 21:56
|
|
