Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Firearms are quite profitable but I agree that the biggest part of their sticking power is their cultural import, and more importantly that someone who is seriously into firearms is also very likely to be - in this country at least - amenable to a lot more brand and consumption identifiers that are far more profitable. If someone buys a sticker to announce they have an AR-15 there's also a big truck it needs to go on, and the 60oz porterhouse on a $500 grill to be cooked to celebrate own the libs with. To say nothing about the manly manly supplements with margins in the thousands of percent. Firearms are unfortunately built to last by necessity in an economy that has moved beyond that sort of thing.

Cranappleberry posted:

The widespread propagation of EVs requires a stronger stronger populace. The need for expansive public gyms with free memberships/access for those in the community similar to libraries has never been greater.

Austromarxism with Leninist Characteristics

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
I think there is also an inertial factor.

Our society and government csnt solve problems that don't directly impact capital, because it isn't designed to and because of institutionalndecay, regulatory capture, etc. Said another way, congress could pass a law, but they won't, not just because guns are a hotbutton topic but also because our system defaults to inaction generally and guns are one of the many areas they are inactive about.

If there were a banking crisis or something action would happen fast, but gun violence doesn't systematically harm capital, so our government is designed to not do anything about it.

The gun lobby therefore seems a lot stronger than it actually is, because it wins by default and those victories make it look powerful.

smug n stuff
Jul 21, 2016

A Hobbit's Adventure
It also just is the case that it’s pretty hard to convince people that the constitution doesn’t protect gun rights, and that it’s extremely hard to change the constitution.

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.
Feels like it's really just a question of numbers at this point.

How many kids are going to have to get Mozambiqued before either, the Rightwing gun lovers cave to the pressure in a significant enough way that actual effective gun control measures are passed OR everyone else, who doesn't prioritize gun accessibility over human lives, decides that "from my cold dead hands" sounds like a pretty good deal.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Enough that a large majority of Americans have been directly, personally affected by gun violence, which is a lot of casualties

Class3KillStorm
Feb 17, 2011



haveblue posted:

Enough that a large majority of Americans have been directly, personally affected by gun violence, which is a lot of casualties

I mean, is that even feasible when there are people directly affected by gun violence who don't have a commensurate revelation, and end up still championing gun rights even after those experiences? There's one Parkland dad who is still a gun nut, even after losing a kid. Hell, Steve Scalise got his balls shot off and he still came back to vote pro-gun.

Seems like the cultural aspect is just too firmly ingrained in some portion of the population that even losing loved ones or limbs to gun violence isn't enough to turn them away, and I don't know how you get around those people at this point.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Re: Hotswapping EV batteries.

It seems like it is 100% a thing that will happen in the future, but is it currently bottle-necked by technological and engineering limitations. They're going to need to develop better and smaller batteries before it can be an actual commonly used method of charging.

Even if you can do it right now with a machine/rig, there's no way that is going to be something that the average person is going to have for reasons of both cost and logistics.

There was a company in Israel that pioneered this over a decade ago and eventually BK’d.

Better Place was a venture-backed international company that developed and sold battery charging and battery switching services for electric cars. It was formally based in Palo Alto, California, but the bulk of its planning and operations were steered from Israel, where both its founder Shai Agassi and its chief investors resided.

The company opened its first functional charging station the first week of December 2008 at Cinema City in Pi-Glilot near Tel Aviv, Israel.[1] The first customer deliveries of Renault Fluence Z.E. electric cars enabled with battery switching technology began in Israel in the second quarter of 2012,[2] and at peak in mid September 2012, there were 21 operational battery-swap stations open to the public in Israel.[3]

Better Place filed for bankruptcy in Israel in May 2013. The company's financial difficulties were caused by mismanagement, wasteful efforts to establish toeholds and run pilots in too many countries, the high investment required to develop the charging and swapping infrastructure, and a market penetration far lower than originally predicted by Shai Agassi.[4] Fewer than 1,000 Fluence Z.E. cars were deployed in Israel and around 400 units in Denmark, after spending about US$850 million in private capital.[4][5][6][7] After two failed post-bankruptcy acquisition attempts,[8][9][10] the bankruptcy receivers sold off the remaining assets in November 2013 to Gnrgy for only $450,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

Class3KillStorm posted:

I mean, is that even feasible when there are people directly affected by gun violence who don't have a commensurate revelation, and end up still championing gun rights even after those experiences? There's one Parkland dad who is still a gun nut, even after losing a kid. Hell, Steve Scalise got his balls shot off and he still came back to vote pro-gun.

Seems like the cultural aspect is just too firmly ingrained in some portion of the population that even losing loved ones or limbs to gun violence isn't enough to turn them away, and I don't know how you get around those people at this point.

Sure there are going to be some. Parkland dad guy can't admit to himself that his beliefs on gun control might have partially contributed to his kid's death, so he doubles down. Scalise remains as well paid as before to vote the way he does, if not more so. His livelihood somewhat depends on his position staying the same (as he may lose his seat if he doesn't) and so his position stays the same.

So sure, some people won't but enough would change their minds, I think. It would just be horrific in terms of casualties.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Jaxyon posted:

It's 3 feet off the ground.

Tell me you've never been to Chicago in the winter without telling me you've never been to Chicago in the winter. (Or Detroit, or Buffalo, or Minneapolis, or...)

Oracle fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Sep 9, 2022

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Oracle posted:

Tell me you've never been to Chicago in the winter without telling me you've never been to Chicago in the winter. (Or Detroit, or Buffalo, or Minneapolis, or...)

Melrose, MA has installed similar ones that are 10 feet off the ground:

https://patch.com/massachusetts/melrose/melrose-breaks-new-ground-looking-elevated-ev-chargers

virtualboyCOLOR
Dec 22, 2004

-Blackadder- posted:

Feels like it's really just a question of numbers at this point.

How many kids of wealthy parents and capitalists are going to have to get Mozambiqued before either, the Rightwing gun lovers cave to the pressure in a significant enough way that actual effective gun control measures are passed OR everyone else, who doesn't prioritize gun accessibility over human lives, decides that "from my cold dead hands" sounds like a pretty good deal.

Fixed that for you. Legislation on guns won’t change until Dems drop decorum / discontinue support of fascists and disband/pack the Supreme Court* and/or capitalists determine guns are bad. Unfortunately since gun violence typically impacts lower/middle class, poo poo won’t change.


*No, disbanding or packing the Supreme Court is NOT an act of fascism if the court already made up of fascist ignoring the will of the people. If you still want to make the argument against disbanding/packing the courts because it would be doing a fascism, please refer to the “we should improve society somewhat” political cartoon and asking yourself if Paul von Hindenburg should have jailed Hitler when he had the chance even if he wasn’t legally at the time able to do so as a counter argument running on a loop. This will save everyone a lot of time. Thank you and have a blessed day.

virtualboyCOLOR fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Sep 9, 2022

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Riptor posted:

Melrose, MA has installed similar ones that are 10 feet off the ground:

https://patch.com/massachusetts/melrose/melrose-breaks-new-ground-looking-elevated-ev-chargers

Ten feet might work but Boston has had higher snow piled up than that in just the past decade. The problem isn't just how much snow falls total, its where you put it when you plow the streets and shovel the walks. That's usually in the medians and the area between the sidewalk and the street, which is where these chargers would also be located.
2015 saw 15 foot high piles of snow along streets.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

-Blackadder- posted:

Feels like it's really just a question of numbers at this point.

How many kids are going to have to get Mozambiqued before either, the Rightwing gun lovers cave to the pressure in a significant enough way that actual effective gun control measures are passed OR everyone else, who doesn't prioritize gun accessibility over human lives, decides that "from my cold dead hands" sounds like a pretty good deal.

If that was going to happen, it probably would have by now. Even after poo poo like Parkland and Uvalde, gun culture types still care a lot more about expanding gun rights than everyone else cares about diminishing them. And no amount of mass shootings will convince gun culture types, because it's very easy to rationalize gun violence as being caused by something besides guns.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Main Paineframe posted:

If that was going to happen, it probably would have by now. Even after poo poo like Parkland and Uvalde, gun culture types still care a lot more about expanding gun rights than everyone else cares about diminishing them. And no amount of mass shootings will convince gun culture types, because it's very easy to rationalize gun violence as being caused by something besides guns.

Sandy Hook taught us no amount of children, no matter the color or socioeconomic status, would be too many for gun-huggers to relinquish their arms.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Oracle posted:

Tell me you've never been to Chicago in the winter without telling me you've never been to Chicago in the winter. (Or Detroit, or Buffalo, or Minneapolis, or...)

I've been to all those places and lived there.

3 Feet isn't the continuous state of snow in any of them.

plainswalker75
Feb 22, 2003

Pigs are smarter than Bears, but they can't ride motorcycles
Hair Elf
Given the way the climate is going, I don't think you'll need to worry about EV stations being buried by snow for very much longer

Sir Kodiak
May 14, 2007


plainswalker75 posted:

Given the way the climate is going, I don't think you'll need to worry about EV stations being buried by snow for very much longer

It's true there are places that will get less snow because of climate change, but some places are expected to get more. In particular, some places are expected to get more heavy snowstorms that produce a lot of snow in a short period of time, thanks to warmer air's ability to hold more water.

Mendrian
Jan 6, 2013

I was talking to my father the other night and one of the things we talked about was the language surrounding climate change being a factor in its political dismissal.

We talk about the "worst impacts of climate change" and give dates some ways off in the future; but meanwhile the effects of climate change are happening now, around us, and we can see how people respond to and talk about it. In some ways the rhetoric would be easier if there were a singular catastrophic shift but I think what we're seeing and will continue to see are isolated catastrophes of a non-final nature.

I think it's time to discuss climate change as if it were already here because, yeah. Talk about not prevention, but mitigation, because it's already happening.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Here's a pretty interesting interview with a guy from New York Magazine who just put out a book on Obama and Biden's rocky relationship from 2015 to 2020.

According to him, Obama tried to stop Biden from running for President in 2016 and 2020, but only succeeded in 2016.

He thought Hillary was a stronger candidate in 2016 and thought Biden was too old in 2020.

Biden was apparently telling everyone that Clinton was going to lose and got his rear end reamed when he said in a CNN interview that Clinton had some weaknesses and one of them is that she is not authentic like Bernie Sanders.

Some other interesting tidbits about the struggles they had politically, even though they liked each other personally. The most interesting ones are:

- Biden had a really complicated plan to divide Iraq up into 3 regions, have the central government distribute oil revenue to all 3 regions, and the Shia/Sunni/Kurds essentially all run their own states and the U.S. could withdraw ASAP. He also wanted to leave Afghanistan in 2010.

But, everyone thought his Iraq plan was absolutely crazy and unworkable. Plus, giving the kurds an effective state would piss off Turkey. And Afghanistan was "going well," so they needed to finish the job.

- Biden was not happy about being boxed out of running for President by the party establishment in 2016 and spent most of his Vice-Presidency remaking his image to appeal to Obama's coalition with the plan of running in 2016.

- Biden was against pursuing Obamacare at the start of Obama's presidency because he felt it wasn't considered "the economy" and they needed to be doing/messaging 100% on "the economy."

- Obama truly believed he had the possibility for bipartisan compromise with the Republicans until around 2014. Then, he thought the earth was salted and gave up on talking to them at all. Biden was the opposite and argued that Obama shouldn't get too bogged down in talking to Republicans over healthcare reform, but thought that Obama was missing opportunities in 2015 and 2016 to get bipartisan wins on immigration and other issues by not talking and truly believed that there was a chance for success.

- Harry Reid did not like Biden and didn't like the idea (that Biden promoted) that Biden was Obama's "Senate Whisperer" to get things moving in the Senate.

There's lots of other interesting tidbits in the book excerpt (link at the bottom), but the excerpt is VERY long, so can't copy all of it.

quote:

Gabriel Debenedetti, national correspondent for New York magazine, whose new book comes out Tuesday. It’s called The Long Alliance: The Imperfect Union of Joe Biden and Barack Obama, and it’s about their two-decade relationship — far more complex than the bromance of political narrative — that has shaped American politics in the 21st century.

One of the more painful episodes in that relationship came during Obama’s second term, when Obama — along with most of the institutional Democratic Party — reached the conclusion that Hillary Clinton would be a stronger candidate than Biden to succeed him. Without explicitly endorsing, Obama worked behind the scenes to set Hillary up on a glide path to nomination, effectively boxing Biden out. The party establishment’s decision to go with Hillary wasn’t just wrong, it was disastrous: If Biden had been nominated in 2016, there would never have been a Trump presidency.

Now, as I just noted, Obama was far from alone in his failure to understand Biden’s true strengths or Clinton’s glaring weaknesses, but that only goes to show how vital Biden is to the party: He gets something about what alienates non-college educated voters (not just non-college educated white voters) that so many other leaders in the party do not. Joe from Scranton would not have glibly assumed that for every voter Hillary lost in rural Pennsylvania, she’d pick up two in the Philadelphia suburbs. And Joe fixated on something that most Democrats glossed over but that seems obvious in retrospect: Too many voters did not trust Clinton after decades of scandal, and that was going to cost her.

Here’s how Gabe put it in our interview, describing Biden’s private venting during the 2016 campaign:

He's saying to anyone who will listen: No one trusts her. This is a huge problem. He is a big consumer of polls at that time, and he sees her trustworthy numbers as a huge issue. At one point, David Simas, who is Obama's political director, sits him down and says, Listen, you've got to stop talking about this. It's true that she has low trustworthy numbers, but so does Trump. That's not what this election is going to be decided upon.

As soon as the election is over, I think two days after the election, Biden sees David Simas outside of the West Wing, looks him in the eyes and says, Trust doesn't matter, huh? and then keeps walking.


This kind of clarity — which is rarer than it ought to be — is why the party still needs Biden. And it’s one of the reasons Obama needed Biden.

Of course, Biden needed Obama, too. Without a ride on Obama’s “hope and change” train, Biden could never have become the party’s presidential nominee. As Gabe describes in the book, the experience of serving as vice president led Biden to remake his self image. It turned him into a stronger, more disciplined politician than he had been, even after decades in the Senate. And in Obama’s post-presidency, Biden has continued to lean on him as a trusted adviser and even a quasi-therapist, even as Obama has largely and purposefully retreated from most public debates.

quote:

Back at the start of his presidency, Obama sought to enact the most dramatic reform of the American health-care system in history, and he overruled the advisers who told him that he was being unrealistic about the political window — none of them resisting so loudly as Biden. Universal access to medical insurance was a priority for the left, but the vice-president argued that voters would give Obama “a pass on this one” if he focused on the economy, which was still teetering on the brink of ruin in early 2009.

Over a few weeks of meetings in the Roosevelt Room, Biden told Obama with increasing agitation that forcing a health-care overhaul could kneecap his presidency from the start. Insisting on this kind of historical loser — reforms had failed numerous times over the decades — in year one would swamp the rest of his agenda, Biden said. But Obama was unimpressed by Biden’s advice that he ought to focus on middle-class pocketbooks above all else. He figured, We’re already doing everything we know how to do for the economy, so all you’re proposing is giving up on health care. That was status quo D.C. thinking.

quote:

Obama didn’t know that he was about to embark on a five-month slide that would turn his hope into the purest cynicism anyone had ever seen from him. Obama usually hid his anger or expressed it in sarcasm, but after the Sandy Hook massacre that December, and the failure to pass gun-control legislation the following April, he seethed. If the murder of 20 little kids wasn’t going to jar GOP lawmakers into cooperation, they were never going to get serious and work with him on anything, were they? No, he concluded. Nothing had changed.

This was the great inflection point for Obama: He saw the political earth as salted. For Biden, however, it was instructive but not decisive. He saw that even the Republicans he considered reasonable were drifting away faster than he’d realized, but he still thought he could get more done across the aisle if given slightly more time and room to maneuver. In his eyes, there was no choice. Even before that December’s horror, Biden’s faith on this point had begun to irritate many of his fellow Democrats, some of whom suspected that the Washington lifer was more interested in process than substance.

Reid, for one, had spent the first term privately dismissing the idea that Biden was Obama’s true Senate whisperer. Reid and Biden were friendly but had never been especially close, and Reid considered Biden both overly talkative and overly self-assured. He sometimes told friends about the time he and Biden had faced each other on a plane from Dallas to D.C. Looking at a clock above Biden’s head, Reid timed him speaking for three hours and 18 minutes of the three-hour-and-20-minute flight.

The full audio interview is about 50 minutes long and mostly just going over what is in the book. It's at the link below.

https://www.joshbarro.com/p/why-barack-obama-and-the-democrats#details

Longer excerpt from the book here:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/gabriel-benedetti-the-long-alliance-book-excerpt.html

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Mendrian posted:

I think it's time to discuss climate change as if it were already here because, yeah. Talk about not prevention, but mitigation, because it's already happening.

This is a very very good point.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


I don't think it should be taken for granted that Biden would have defeated Trump in 2016 as asserted here, nor should it be taken for granted that Biden's political instincts are so much better.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Sodomy Hussein posted:

I don't think it should be taken for granted that Biden would have defeated Trump in 2016 as asserted here, nor should it be taken for granted that Biden's political instincts are so much better.

I agree on the first part. That is the author editorializing.

But, everyone else's political instincts were so bad and off when it came to Hillary Clinton that being one of the people saying "I think she has a problem and could possibly even lose." puts your political instincts in another tier because the curve is set so low.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I agree on the first part. That is the author editorializing.

But, everyone else's political instincts were so bad and off when it came to Hillary Clinton that being one of the people saying "I think she has a problem and could possibly even lose." puts your political instincts in another tier because the curve is set so low.
Ok I actually like Biden now knowing that he correctly thought Hillary would lose and that Bernie was the good one

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

FlamingLiberal posted:

Ok I actually like Biden now knowing that he correctly thought Hillary would lose and that Bernie was the good one

Biden is a land of contrasts.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


FlamingLiberal posted:

Ok I actually like Biden now knowing that he correctly thought Hillary would lose and that Bernie was the good one

Biden in 2020:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lM3MgDTLqec

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

FlamingLiberal posted:

Ok I actually like Biden now knowing that he correctly thought Hillary would lose and that Bernie was the good one

He didn't even go that far. He basically said, "Bernie is trustworthy and real, but Hillary isn't (however, she has many other great qualities!) and that might prove a problem for her." Which turned out to be right, but got the political director upset that he said it on TV.

The fact that Obama's own political director was:

- Telling Biden to stop talking about it Hillary's trustworthiness problem because nobody cares about that.

and

- Arguing that Hillary could only lose in a low turnout election where the Republicans were energized, but that was never going to happen in 2016 because so many establishment Republicans were down on Trump, Hillary would be the first female President, and Obama won white working class voters, so they would be in the bag (and 2016 then turned out to be one of the lowest turnout modern elections, white women supported Trump, and white working class voters supported Trump).

makes me wonder how Obama won by so much twice when he was running the political strategy.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:57 on Sep 9, 2022

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

He didn't even go that far. He basically said, "Bernie is trustworthy and real, but Hillary isn't (however, she has many other great qualities!) and that might prove a problem for her." Which turned out to be right, but got the political director upset that he said it on TV.

The fact that Obama's own political director was:

- Telling Biden to stop talking about it Hillary's trustworthiness problem because nobody cares about that.

and

- Arguing that Hillary could only lose in a low turnout election where the Republicans were energized, but that was never going to happen in 2016 because so many establishment Republicans were down on Trump, Hillary would be the first female President, and Obama won white working class voters, so they would be in the bag (and 2016 then turned out to be one of the lowest turnout modern elections, white women supported Trump, and white working class voters supported Trump).

makes me wonder how Obama won by so much twice when he was running the political strategy.

As crazy as this sounds, Obama's opponents were weaker.

Dietrich
Sep 11, 2001

FlamingLiberal posted:

Ok I actually like Biden now knowing that he correctly thought Hillary would lose and that Bernie was the good one

Biden's Voting Record (FIlter for biden and go session by session) is uncannily right in the middle of the democratic field. Like, 45-55th percentile. For decades. Dude has polling guiding him and not much else, and he is very very good at triangulating his votes to follow the general consensus of the party.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Sodomy Hussein posted:

As crazy as this sounds, Obama's opponents were weaker.

Obama had charism and got people excited about poo poo, even if it was all lies.

Getting people pumped is the way to win elections, not to be slightly better than the alternative.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Sodomy Hussein posted:

As crazy as this sounds, Obama's opponents were weaker.

Obama has his faults, but he's also an amazing campaigner and his natural charisma is off the charts. I'm sure he made a lot of political operatives look better than they are. It's like being a manager of a soccer team stacked with all stars.

Veryslightlymad
Jun 3, 2007

I fight with
my brain
and with an
underlying
hatred of the
Erebonian
Noble Faction
Also, Trump repeatedly managed to come out ahead in situations every single analyst thought would be the end of him. So... That guy had outliers on either side.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I agree on the first part. That is the author editorializing.

But, everyone else's political instincts were so bad and off when it came to Hillary Clinton that being one of the people saying "I think she has a problem and could possibly even lose." puts your political instincts in another tier because the curve is set so low.

I mean virtually every poster on this forum was saying Hillary vould lose at the time. We didn't think she would but we knew she could.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I mean virtually every poster on this forum was saying Hillary vould lose at the time. We didn't think she would but we knew she could.
Is that supposed to be a wouldn't? The forums as a whole were betting on Hillary and even those who thought Trump had a chance were coming from a place of "Don't underestimate him/Hillary is more unpopular than you think" rather than a "Put all my chips on Orange!" Way, besides a few notables.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Sodomy Hussein posted:

As crazy as this sounds, Obama's opponents were weaker.

Right, the primary miscalculation of 2016 was assuming that Trump was a weak candidate. Everyone who laughed at him through the primaries, sure he would flame out, made that miscalculation. Everyone who figured Clinton had it in the bag for the general, because lol Trump, made that miscalculation. Even at the time it was obvious from the day he came down the escalator that he was the primary front runner, and as it went along that he tapped a vein of the Republican id and that other Republicans would fall in line once he was clearly on top. That made his victory possible (though not invevitable) with a lot of scary consequences if he did. The free media boosting actually helping him more than it hurt was obvious at the time too, if you really paid attention.

I'm not gonna say I knew better. I figured Trump for a likely nominee from the start, but I was too optimistic about the general and figured it would be somewhat between a comfortable Clinton win and an uncomfortable Clinton win, especially with how the polling was. The loss caught me off guard.

Anyone after the fact who said, or still says, "Haha, Clinton couldn't even beat Trump, how would she have done against a competent Republican?" falls for the same trap as the people who were sure he was going to lose beforehand, even if she genuinely had weaknesses her supporters overlooked. But far stupider, since they're willfully ignoring Trump's obvious strengths in hindsight just to get a dunk in.

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer
Yeah I think Biden wins in 2016 because regardless of what we may think of her, misogyny and negative name recognition were extremely crippling to her chances. The margins were so razor thin in so many states, I don't think Trump gets quite as many people out to vote for him if there's no Hillary to vote against. Biden wouldn't have won by much IMO, but the negative name recognition alone was enough to get a lot of spite votes against Clinton. Those same people became Trump loyalists after the fact sure.

FLIPADELPHIA fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Sep 9, 2022

Keyser_Soze
May 5, 2009

Pillbug
It could be said that the Anti-Hillary "Stay Home Don't Vote!" "pretend Bernie Bro's for TRUMP!!!" people and bots wouldn't have been as successful against Sleepy Joe.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I mean virtually every poster on this forum was saying Hillary vould lose at the time. We didn't think she would but we knew she could.
I don't remember that. I think everyone thought it was going to be close but that she would narrowly win.

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

FlamingLiberal posted:

I don't remember that. I think everyone thought it was going to be close but that she would narrowly win.

There were a few people who thought Trump would win, but iirc they were mostly people with genuine anxiety disorders who periodically wandered into the thread begging to be talked off a ledge. They weren't taken terribly seriously, usually getting responses like "post your map."

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

FlamingLiberal posted:

I don't remember that. I think everyone thought it was going to be close but that she would narrowly win.

there were people talking about how this could be the year texas was going blue. the people who thought it was even going to be close were a vanishingly tiny minority, because the polls would have to be incredibly wrong and universally in a way that favored trump.

saying it was close would get you laughed out of the relevant threads and being told to post your map; saying that Trump was going to win was so laughable you had the last batch of committed conservative posters begging to be released from their trump toxxes because they didn't want to lose plat after the election.

then it turned out that whoops! the polls were incredibly wrong, and universally in a way that favored trump, because the assumption "Hillary will get the same demographics of turnout Obama did" was terminally flawed, and the assumption "Trump will get the same demographics of turnout Romney did" was even more so.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

FlamingLiberal posted:

I don't remember that. I think everyone thought it was going to be close but that she would narrowly win.

It's easier to typo "vould" from "could" than "would", despite the v-similarity.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply