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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568502706557296641

:eyepop: if true

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Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Ukrowned

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 4 days!)

Fuuuuuuck me. Some generals are getting *shot* for this.

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Rust Martialis posted:

Fuuuuuuck me. Some generals are getting *shot* for this.

some of them even by the Ukranians

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Read a report earlier where a Ukrainian general commented that the HARM played a key role in the push. Apparently they torched Russia's air defenses and were able to push forward with drones, letting them paint the Russians for artillery and direct fire.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





That's some spectacular use of technology if accurate.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568514522645774338?s=20&t=PyH9mgCou7nnGUGlxyno5Q
^ for context, starshe edda is extremely pro-russian regime even when other channels are normally cynical

russians past the cope stage of grief


Ukrainians the opposite


tbh I kind of expected that the nearly zero posts from russian channels for almost the last 18 hours suggested that some bad and extremely chaotic poo poo was happening to the Russians, but lol ukraine may have fully outdone themselves

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Sep 10, 2022

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
I'd say that the defeat at Kyiv was engineered by the Russians, upon which the Ukrainians capitalized. The defeat at Izyum, (assuming that the Ukrainians have secured it) has been engineered by Ukraine, against which Russia was not able to defend.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

A.o.D. posted:

I'd say that the defeat at Kyiv was engineered by the Russians, upon which the Ukrainians capitalized. The defeat at Izyum, (assuming that the Ukrainians have secured it) has been engineered by Ukraine, against which Russia was not able to defend.

Seeing conflicting reports right now that Russia high-tailed it out of Izyum. Also seeing rumors that they've pulled out of Lyman.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

psydude posted:

Seeing conflicting reports right now that Russia high-tailed it out of Izyum. Also seeing rumors that they've pulled out of Lyman.

For something like Izyum I'm waiting for an official Ukrainian government announcement. That's not that I disbelieve what I'm seeing, just that I require official confirmation for major events.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

A.o.D. posted:

I'd say that the defeat at Kyiv was engineered by the Russians, upon which the Ukrainians capitalized. The defeat at Izyum, (assuming that the Ukrainians have secured it) has been engineered by Ukraine, against which Russia was not able to defend.

idk, kyiv push fell apart similarly quickly once ukraine was finally able to threaten to cut off their supply lines. they routed all the way back to the border in the course of a couple of days

i'd like some better sources about izyum, but idk why russian nationalists would be lying about russians leaving izyum. it certainly appeared to be in danger of being surrounded yesterday and the only thing there really is to do in that situation when you have no reserves is to pull out as many men and materiel as you can

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 12:22 on Sep 10, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Herstory Begins Now posted:

idk, kyiv push fell apart similarly quickly once ukraine was finally able to threaten to cut off their supply lines. they routed all the way back to the border in the course of a couple of days

I'll have you know that was a gesture of good will on the part of the Russians. Lavrov himself said so.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

psydude posted:

I'll have you know that was a gesture of good will on the part of the Russians. Lavrov himself said so.

Hmm, that looked a lot like a deliberate withdrawal once the Ukrainian counter attack started getting close to the danger area around the flanks and it was clear that the defence of Kyiv wasn't going to collapse with 'one more push'. Once you decide you aren't getting Kyiv then there's no reason for those troops to stick around, which is why they pull out of the whole north of the country.

This feels genuinely different, they thinned the line too much and took risk and now even if it all stops here they've been unhinged from positions they really would have wanted to keep.

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



The wildest part so far is the one assessment saying something like “Russians are fleeing faster than Ukraine can liberate those areas”.

The D&D thread has a good title right now, as “wrong region, it’s just a sparkling rout” :twisted:

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
^ that thread title was the best post I've ever made about the war lol

Alchenar posted:

Hmm, that looked a lot like a deliberate withdrawal once the Ukrainian counter attack started getting close to the danger area around the flanks and it was clear that the defence of Kyiv wasn't going to collapse with 'one more push'. Once you decide you aren't getting Kyiv then there's no reason for those troops to stick around, which is why they pull out of the whole north of the country.

This feels genuinely different, they thinned the line too much and took risk and now even if it all stops here they've been unhinged from positions they really would have wanted to keep.

I agree this feels different and I definitely think it is different. I'm kind of in the forest of reading too much russian poo poo lately so I'm speaking a bit of that perspective. Their perspective on the april 'withdrawal' is that it happened because the logistics situation for the entire region's push was totally hosed as Ukraine put more and more pressure on their already struggling supply lines and it sure sounds like the kiev axis falling apart was more organic than anything else. the whole narrative (technically narratives) about it being planned or lmao a sign of good faith or whatever came about after the fact. That's not to say it was completely disorderly: all things considered they got a ton of people and materiel out of the kyiv region. But I think actually kind of similar to what we're seeing now, the perception from all levels of the russian military was that it had simply become untenable to keep defending that territory. it sure seems like there's a similar top-to-bottom perception about much of the northern front currently.

qualitatively and quantitatively this feels different and in particular i'd agree that it's a lot more actively Ukraine's doing, but it's fascinating how if the seasons weren't opposite, a lot of the footage of captured radars and command vehicles and riverbanks scattered with gear is indistinguishable from what we saw in april

btw if wagner telegram is to be believed, this might be an april-scale 'withdrawal'

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 12:49 on Sep 10, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Some people on telegram are claiming they've left a bunch of poo poo behind.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

psydude posted:

Some people on telegram are claiming they've left a bunch of poo poo behind.

Yeah, they probably did leave their field latrines behind.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
new website idea: gathering of juggalos OR Russian army camp

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012

Alan Smithee posted:

new website idea: gathering of juggalos OR Russian army camp

Juggalos don't dig crosshatch trench patterns for their ammunition storage, so it'd be a pretty simple game...

Generation Internet
Jan 18, 2009

Where angels and generals fear to tread.
Nero is opening a ferris-wheel while the Northern front is collapsing :discourse:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1568569887605362688?s=20&t=43giFPLTQahpr1p7esa18w

It's been a great morning to wake up and realize that the Ukrainians have collapsed a huge section of the Russian front within a week.

e:

Ukrainians definitely entering Izyum

https://twitter.com/ua_industrial/status/1568567011906654212?s=20&t=43giFPLTQahpr1p7esa18w

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Xakura posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjUdVxJH6yI (The sound at 2:17 is pretty good)

No but if those same kinetic weapons get easily shot down by lasers things get interesting.

The kinetics will almost always end up winning. Lasers I think will remain valuable against drones and slow missiles. But we can always make bigger and faster AA missiles. It's gonna be weird but I'd expect a lot of high performance SAMs will be those 8-10m tall giants but with shorter range due to being tuned for speed

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

Xakura posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjUdVxJH6yI (The sound at 2:17 is pretty good)

No but if those same kinetic weapons get easily shot down by lasers things get interesting.

And that was five years ago.

That noise is still horrifying.

davecrazy
Nov 25, 2004

I'm an insufferable shitposter who does not deserve to root for such a good team. Also, this is what Matt Harvey thinks of me and my garbage posting.
I’m enjoying the take on Twitter and CSPAM that this is all a carefully designed retrograde action to lure the Ukrainian army into a trap.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
ironically pretty much anyone who speaks russian is entirely aware of what's going on, meanwhile american/anglo supporters of russia are both way the gently caress less cynical about literally everything to do with russia and also get their info after it's filtered through a couple pro-russian layers of media

like even among russian nationalists the pov is that it's pretty much to be expected that incompetent fuckwit bandits in charge of stuff hosed everything up

E: also lines are moving pretty significantly around kherson and we might get something else, too

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 13:47 on Sep 10, 2022

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!

M_Gargantua posted:

The kinetics will almost always end up winning. Lasers I think will remain valuable against drones and slow missiles.

Based on what

davecrazy posted:

I’m enjoying the take on Twitter and CSPAM that this is all a carefully designed retrograde action to lure the Ukrainian army into a trap.

CSPAM delenda est

Generation Internet
Jan 18, 2009

Where angels and generals fear to tread.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

ironically pretty much anyone who speaks russian is entirely aware of what's going on, meanwhile american/anglo supporters of russia are both way the gently caress less cynical about literally everything to do with russia and also get their info after it's filtered through a couple pro-russian layers of media

like even among russian nationalists the pov is that it's pretty much to be expected that incompetent fuckwit bandits in charge of stuff hosed everything up

E: also lines are moving pretty significantly around kherson and we might get something else, too

Yeah, this is a translated Russian reaction to Putin's complete inaction to stop something like this from happening and it's so much more critical than your average tankie which, last I checked, was mulling the "dear leader Putin was forced into launching this war of liberation unprepared by the perfidious West" narrative.



e:
https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568582302720196609?s=20&t=43giFPLTQahpr1p7esa18w

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Xakura posted:

Based on what

CSPAM delenda est

Based on physics

e; it would take 2.5kg of mass budget to make an SM-3 laser resistant with zirconia, that's a 0.1% increase.

M_Gargantua fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Sep 10, 2022

Raged
Jul 21, 2003

A revolution of beats
It must be getting really bad for Russia. War Thunder has shut down their in-game chat again. The last time they did this was when Russian got it's rear end kicked during the original invasion.

Godholio
Aug 28, 2002

Does a bear split in the woods near Zheleznogorsk?

M_Gargantua posted:

Based on physics

e; it would take 2.5kg of mass budget to make an SM-3 laser resistant with zirconia, that's a 0.1% increase.

What does that do to your balance, to your guidance package, to your launcher, to your handling?

Not saying you're wrong, but it's not as simple as spray painting a coating.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May
The HIMARS pounding around Kherson is going to go down as a case study in masterful mildec.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Godholio posted:

What does that do to your balance, to your guidance package, to your launcher, to your handling?

Not saying you're wrong, but it's not as simple as spray painting a coating.

Agreed, its not 1950's simple, but its modern engineering simple. If you're going against scifi laser defenses the solutions are already available and a solved physics problem. Just like adding EA and EP, its just one more layer of battlespace you have to spec and build for in the process. You either 1) boost faster so you smack the threat before the ablation finished or 2) Add ablative armor so you smack the threat before the ablation finishes. Even a partial ablation will add a off axis torque to the fusalage, which the control surfaces have to have the software and speed to account for or else the missile will tumble and then its own aero forces will tear it apart. Combined with EWAR Lasers just become like flares or chaff in that they're annoying to your hit rate but overall defeatable.

Xakura
Jan 10, 2019

A safety-conscious little mouse!
How much ablative covering can you put over your radome

ChubbyChecker
Mar 25, 2018

Raged posted:

It must be getting really bad for Russia. War Thunder has shut down their in-game chat again. The last time they did this was when Russian got it's rear end kicked during the original invasion.

lmao

Nick Soapdish
Apr 27, 2008


https://twitter.com/SecretNofun/status/1568554903584346113?t=ePbrJnMQsfVb6R-Hpwch7g&s=19

Same

Generation Internet
Jan 18, 2009

Where angels and generals fear to tread.
The Russian feint is gaining speed

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1568595931112640514?s=20&t=P4GB_G5bxL8wpc6OTLCyUg

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

I'm about to board a 13 hour flight from Singapore back to Germany and at this rate I'm pretty sure Ukraine and the Baltic states will be carving up Moscow into sectors of control by the time I land.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008


I put that firmly in the 'rumour and gossip' category but it would be absolutely hilarious if after eight years Russia gives up Luhansk in a week.

Generation Internet
Jan 18, 2009

Where angels and generals fear to tread.

Alchenar posted:

I put that firmly in the 'rumour and gossip' category but it would be absolutely hilarious if after eight years Russia gives up Luhansk in a week.

I've been trying to contain my optimism all week and every time I think "there's no way Ukraine has been THAT successful" there's a picture of them in a new town the next day.

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Alchenar posted:

I put that firmly in the 'rumour and gossip' category but it would be absolutely hilarious if after eight years Russia gives up Luhansk in a week.

Kyiv Post is reporting on it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kyivpost/status/1568596285254410240?s=46&t=oZuD_nKJiUl__HfQFPto7g

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