US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

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Judgy Fucker: Mar 24, 2006

There's probably not too much to infer here with regard to national politics, but incumbent Oklahoma governor Kevin Stitt (R) Leads Joy Hofmeister by Just One Point in General Election Baseline Poll

quote:

Governor Kevin Stitt, looking to serve a second term, leads his Democratic opponent Joy Hofmeister by just one point in SoonerPoll's baseline poll, which was conducted the first week of September and commissioned by News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

Hofmeister, who until recently become a Democrat, is the current Superintendent of Public Instruction, having served two terms in the post as a Republican.

But, this race is closer than the other statewide races for these two reasons.

Stitt's favorable rating shows soft favorables, meaning a higher percent are more somewhat favorable than very favorable at 26.1 percent to 20.1 percent very favorable. While he has a combined favorable of 46.2 percent, 53.3 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him with 40.6 percent indicating very unfavorable. Recent TV advertising by third party groups have attacked Stitt and appear to be playing a role in the increase of his unfavorables and levels of support.

Hofmeister, interestingly, was getting 61.4 percent of conservative voters in her re-election to Superintendent in 2018, 63.9 percent of Republicans, and 28.2 percent of Democrats meaning she has been able to win over Democrats who have voted against her in the past plus keep a few Republicans as well, making this a much closer race than most might have imaged.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November election for Governor was held TODAY and you were in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?
1. Kevin Stitt: 43.7%
2. Joy Hofmeister: 42.7
3. Ervin Yen: 3.9
4. Natalie Bruno: 2.6
5. Don�t Know/Undecided: 7.0
According to the poll, Stitt is getting 71.3 percent of his party's support, but losing 17.5 percent to Hofmeister, who getting 83.3 percent of the Democratic vote and losing only 3.6 percent to Stitt. Independents, who make up about one in ten voters on election day, support Hofmeister 59.5 percent to only 12.7 percent for Stitt.

Among those voters 65 and older, who make up about 40 percent of the electorate, Stitt is only garnering 49.8 percent to Hofmeister's 43 percent.

A plurality of women voters support Hofmeister (47.5 to 36.3 percent) and a small majority of men support Stitt (52.6 37.1 percent), but slightly more than one in ten women are undecided compared to only 2.8 percent of men.

Stitt is commanding the vast majority of conservative voters compared to Hofmeister, but only 16.4 percent of moderates compared to 70.1 percent for Hofmeister.

The few likely voters in the poll who were favorable towards President Joe Biden were overwhelmingly supportive of Hofmeister, but 68.4 percent of those somewhat unfavorable to Biden supported Hofmeister for governor and another 12.2 percent who were very unfavorable toward Biden, meaning Biden's unfavorables is not hurting Hofmeister as much as he is other Democrats running for governor in other states.

In the 1st Congressional District, where both candidates are originally from, Stitt edges out Hofmeister 49.6 to 46.4 percent. While Stitt is beating Hofmeister in the 2nd and 4th districts by 16 points and 3 points respectively, Hofmeister is beating Stitt in the 3rd district, 47.5 to 38.1 percent, and the OKC metro area of the 5th district, 46.8 percent to 36.5 percent.

Those very and somewhat favorable towards Donald Trump overwhelmingly support Stitt and the other statewide Republican candidates, but there is a slight weakness for Stitt compared to the others. For example, only 2.2 percent of those very favorable to Trump say they are voting for James Lankford's opponent in the US Senate race, but that number rises to 7.4 percent voting for Hofmeister. Among those somewhat favorable to Trump, 3.9 percent say they are voting against Lankford, but that number rises to 20.3 percent who say they are voting against Stitt.

One final note, Stitt's weaknesses in his favorability is not having an impact on the other statewide races at this point in the data. For example, 41.1 percent of those somewhat unfavorable towards Stitt are voting for James Lankford, 39.8 percent for Markwayne Mullin, and 36.4 percent for Lt. Governor Matt Pinnell.

The Oklahoma GOP has been awash with multiple stories of egregious corruption and cronyism over the last four years, almost all of it involving Stitt or associates. His appointed Secretary of Education, Ryan Walters, is also running for state superintended and does not appear to be doing so well himself for a blood-red state. Walters has made his campaign 100% about "wokeism" in schools, and has called for at least one teacher by name to lose their license for sharing a QR code to a "banned book" list to her students. That teacher has fled her home because of targeted harassment and threats she has received since Walters' publicly called for her de-certification.

A Democrat has won a statewide OK race as "recently" as 2006. But two statewide races polling as poorly as they are for the Republicans shows there's some very deep dissatisfaction with the way things are going. As it turns out, GOP primary voters may want to disestablish the state, but GOP general election voters (as well as everyone else) actually do want some level of "good" governance and functional social institutions like schools. Here's where I think the tie to national politics may matter--that there may really be a bottom, even for GOP voters, when it comes to the poo poo GOP candidates are advocating.

I doubt the (relative) anti-GOP sentiments in OK right now will have any downstream ballot effects on House elections except for maybe OK-5, which while getting further gerrymandered since the last census, is still far and away the most winnable seat for Democrats in Oklahoma.

# ? Sep 13, 2022 21:40

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 00:47

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Oracle posted:

I'd believe the PA poll, Fetterman is spanking Oz in every conceivable way.

The others, there's just no way they're that far apart.

That Ohio poll is interesting. A Suffolk University poll of 500 registered voters found Vance/Ryan within a point.

That Echelon/NetChoice poll surveyed 831 Ohio voters and seemed to have found about the same support for Ryan, but less support for Vance that seemed to answer unsure.

Looking at the trend for the past few polls here, it seems like that NetChoice poll is definitely an outlier :shrug:

# ? Sep 13, 2022 21:41

KillHour: Oct 28, 2007

SimonChris posted:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1569754673858445316

That sure is a poll. I choose to believe that this is 100% accurate.

LOL at the huge bump that caused in the 538 forecast.

# ? Sep 13, 2022 22:05

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

The Needle will have its revenge from beyond the grave

# ? Sep 13, 2022 23:43

DaveWoo: Aug 14, 2004; Fun Shoe

Those are the kinds of polls people will be pointing to in two months' time and saying "how the hell did the polls get things so wrong?"

# ? Sep 14, 2022 00:27

AlexDeGruven: Jun 29, 2007; Watch me pull my dongle out of this tiny box

Oz appears to be running out of money fast, so that one seems likely.

Last I saw on GA was much closer than that. But honestly, all Walker needs to do is keep talking and he'll keep losing people that aren't complete psychopaths, because holy gently caress that man's brain is BROKEN.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 00:35

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

AlexDeGruven posted:

Oz appears to be running out of money fast, so that one seems likely.

It's hard to overstate just how bad he is at apparently all aspects of running for public office, so I wouldn't be surprised if he comes off just as wooden and unlikable in his fundraising efforts.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 00:38

Chemtrailologist: Jul 8, 2007

Hell yeah. Didn't think it would happen. The only debate I'm going to watch

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1569809027135148033?s=20&t=554W_owOx0peMYwnviI3CA

# ? Sep 14, 2022 00:47

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Chemtrailologist posted:

Hell yeah. Didn't think it would happen. The only debate I'm going to watch

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1569809027135148033?s=20&t=554W_owOx0peMYwnviI3CA

You know, at some point this is just abuse of a severely mentally compromised man. I mean it�s not quite Strom Thurman levels but drat. You�d think his family would put a stop to it.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 02:53

I AM GRANDO: Aug 20, 2006

He beats the poo poo out of them and points pistols at them, saying he�ll pull the trigger one day. They�re probably too afraid to do anything.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 02:56

StratGoatCom: Aug 6, 2019; Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice

DaveWoo posted:

Those are the kinds of polls people will be pointing to in two months' time and saying "how the hell did the polls get things so wrong?"

I mean, yeah, with that rail strike, it's likely to knock the current dem surge into a cocked hat.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 03:23

DeeplyConcerned: Apr 29, 2008; I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!

Oracle posted:

You know, at some point this is just abuse of a severely mentally compromised man. I mean it�s not quite Strom Thurman levels but drat. You�d think his family would put a stop to it.

hey man this is America . The brain poisoned mentally unwell Republicans in Georgia deserve a representative that talks and thinks like them.

but seriously I get what you're saying. just goes to show you what a big problem TBI is in football. those poor dudes get treated like a loving pinball.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 03:26

Kalit: Nov 6, 2006; The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

StratGoatCom posted:

I mean, yeah, with that rail strike, it's likely to knock the current dem surge into a cocked hat.

While I'm skeptical of Politico in general, according to one of their sources, it sounds unlikely to happen: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/12/biden-rail-dispute-strike-00056241

quote:

While a strike could happen starting Friday, people close to the negotiations tell POLITICO they�re not expecting it � at least not that soon.

�There is this narrative being developed that a work stoppage is inevitable and unions are chomping at the bit,� said a person familiar with the conversations, but not authorized to speak to the press. �My view is that a strike is unlikely, and that the likeliest scenarios are, one, that they reach an 11th hour or 11th hour and 59 minute deal. The second likeliest scenario is they extend the cooling off period so that they can have more time to cross all the t�s and dot all the i�s.�

# ? Sep 14, 2022 03:32

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

538 has Emerson polling as an A- pollster and they have a new poll showing Laxalt up by 1 in the NV Senate race but the forecasted vote share for the Senate race has Cortez Masto winning 60 out of 100 simulations after 40,000 simulations by a margin of 1.8% with 80% of predicited outcomes falling in the range of 49.2% for Cortez Masto to 47.4% for Laxalt; making that Senate race Lean D.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/nevada/

Mr. Silver does, however, have the Wisconsin Senate race as a toss-up due to a lot of good polling for D challenger Barnes from August even though it has the incumbent winning 51 simulations out of 100.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/wisconsin/

# ? Sep 14, 2022 03:43

the_steve: Nov 9, 2005; We're always hiring!

Meatball posted:

The issue is that when trump dies, even if he shits himself to death on the toilet, will be counted as a deep state assassination, and will rile up the chuds no matter what.

Violence is coming from the right, no matter what happens over the next few years, the only things that will matter is the intensity and if there's any consequences for it.

I'm not too worried about the intensity level.
Chuds are like cops (because cops ARE chuds :haw:

), they aren't going to start a fight unless they're 100% certain they can win with no risk to themselves.
1/6 happened specifically because Trump was whipping them up and telling them they'd all be pardoned once he was back in office.

Without him or some other ringmaster in a position to make them that same promise, the vast majority of them will content themselves with posting conspiracy theories on their website of choice while waiting for someone else to do all the glorious revolution they'll say is imminent.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 04:22

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Yeah there will just continue to be the normal levels of stochastic violence regularly committed by white conservative guys that have "no clear motive."

# ? Sep 14, 2022 04:35

the_steve: Nov 9, 2005; We're always hiring!

Professor Beetus posted:

Yeah there will just continue to be the normal levels of stochastic violence regularly committed by white conservative guys that have "no clear motive."

Tragic lone wolves who played too much videogames and not enough mental health. Nobody can truly say why they tried to shoot up a Chuck E. Cheese while screaming "Trump sent me to rescue the children you're keeping in the secret basement underneath the ball pit!"

# ? Sep 14, 2022 08:08

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

the_steve posted:

Tragic lone wolves who played too much videogames and not enough mental health. Nobody can truly say why they tried to shoot up a Chuck E. Cheese while screaming "Trump sent me to rescue the children you're keeping in the secret basement underneath the ball pit!"

lol that this is literally DuckTales spoilers

# ? Sep 14, 2022 08:30

Kith: Sep 17, 2009; You never learn anything
by doing it right.

Meatball posted:

The issue is that when trump dies, even if he shits himself to death on the toilet, will be counted as a deep state assassination, and will rile up the chuds no matter what.

Violence is coming from the right, no matter what happens over the next few years, the only things that will matter is the intensity and if there's any consequences for it.

I'm aware. However, my point was addressing the response from Trump being obviously killed by someone: a death by natural causes is obviously going to ignite the fringe extremists who believe the most insane things regardless of what happens, but that response will be insignificant compared to what would happen if an assassination via a deadly weapon occurred. Only a fraction of his base would mobilize and commit violence in his name if it was the former, but the latter would turn him into a martyr and could easily trigger an uprising.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 12:33

daslog: Dec 10, 2008; #essereFerrari

Not sure if anyone noticed, but former General Don Bolduc won the GOP primary and will try to unseat Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan. Hassan was considered vulnerable, but Bolduc is a wack job fruit loop and will probably lose in the general election.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 14:16

Thom12255: Feb 23, 2013; WHERE THE FUCK IS MY MONEY

Eric Cantonese posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1569666374242385920

Sadly, I think the GOP is still going to be able to use inflation as a cudgel against the Democrats. Certain prices are going down, but nothing is able to cure certain supply chain issues.

I posted about this in the USCE thread, but it seems worth tracking inflation. It seems like a big X factor that could really help the GOP.

A railroad strike is going to make inflation go through the roof right before the elections too.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 14:44

god this blows: Mar 13, 2003

daslog posted:

Not sure if anyone noticed, but former General Don Bolduc won the GOP primary and will try to unseat Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan. Hassan was considered vulnerable, but Bolduc is a wack job fruit loop and will probably lose in the general election.

I�m not so convinced that the fruit loop candidates won�t win. There are enough people who just vote party line that anything is possible.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 15:16

Angry_Ed: Mar 30, 2010; Grimey Drawer

daslog posted:

Not sure if anyone noticed, but former General Don Bolduc won the GOP primary and will try to unseat Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan. Hassan was considered vulnerable, but Bolduc is a wack job fruit loop and will probably lose in the general election.

New Hampshire is full of wack job fruit loops

# ? Sep 14, 2022 16:24

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

god this blows posted:

I�m not so convinced that the fruit loop candidates won�t win. There are enough people who just vote party line that anything is possible.

I think more people are paying attention this midterm than you think, especially Republican women in very independent-minded New Hampshire. There's still a fair share of rock-ribbed Northeastern Republicans there, dying breed though they be.

Angry_Ed posted:

New Hampshire is full of wack job fruit loops

They're called Libertarians.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 18:55

daslog: Dec 10, 2008; #essereFerrari

Oracle posted:

They're called Libertarians.

If you ever have 5 minutes free, Google "Grafton NH Libertarians" and read about how Bears destroyed a Libertarian paradise.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 19:08

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

daslog posted:

If you ever have 5 minutes free, Google "Grafton NH Libertarians" and read about how Bears destroyed a Libertarian paradise.

Well aware of the story. I think they even wrote a book about it.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 20:23

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1570083509405990912

It's not even one of the Thiel guys or Oz, Ted Budd hasn't been in the news much.

Supporting abortion bans in the south isn't as stupid as everywhere else but NC is still net pro choice.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 20:33

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Angry_Ed posted:

New Hampshire is full of wack job fruit loops

Live free or DIE!!!
*Flies head-first off of a stolen 4-wheeler into the side of an above-ground pool with "Google Ron Paul" airbrushed on the side*

# ? Sep 14, 2022 20:46

nine-gear crow: Aug 10, 2013

Ghost Leviathan posted:

lol that this is literally DuckTales spoilers

Given his aversion to stupid evil schemes, Bradford Buzzard would positively bristle at FOWL being compared to QAnon in any capacity.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 21:04

Rappaport: Oct 2, 2013

nine-gear crow posted:

Given his aversion to stupid evil schemes, Bradford Buzzard would positively bristle at FOWL being compared to QAnon in any capacity.

QAnon seems more like Shawn's thing, really.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 22:19

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

Angry_Ed posted:

New Hampshire is full of wack job fruit loops

Watching football this weekend in Mass and was bombarded with some truly incredible ads from the New Hampshire primary. Saw this one a half dozen times, for one of the dudes who lost to Bolduc, so many NH ads just go whole hog on the racism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJIw5WZq_mc

Same pac ran an anti-Bolduc ad that's just 30 seconds of lols. Can't hotlink that one, but you can watch it but really you just need this: https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/ac38ec73-0769-4cd2-896d-f741f9ec3519

# ? Sep 14, 2022 23:09

Angry_Ed: Mar 30, 2010; Grimey Drawer

Kalli posted:

Watching football this weekend in Mass and was bombarded with some truly incredible ads from the New Hampshire primary. Saw this one a half dozen times, for one of the dudes who lost to Bolduc, so many NH ads just go whole hog on the racism.

People in NH and other New England states being so frightened of a border they are 2,000 miles away from never stops being darkly funny to me.

# ? Sep 14, 2022 23:41

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Angry_Ed posted:

People in NH and other New England states being so frightened of a border they are 2,000 miles away from never stops being darkly funny to me.

Why aren�t they afraid of Canadians? Some of them even speak a different language!

It is a mystery.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 00:37

daslog: Dec 10, 2008; #essereFerrari

Oracle posted:

Why aren�t they afraid of Canadians? Some of them even speak a different language!

It is a mystery.

Most of the Loonies live in the Northern part of the state. I've lived here for decades in the southern part of the state, and you just tied it all together for me. The Right Wing nutjobs are worried about illegal Canadian immigrants trying to escape their Socialized Heathcare.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 00:46

Crazyweasel: Oct 29, 2006; lazy

Southeast NH is full of 1st/2nd generation European-descended boomers who moved out of Northern MA 40 years ago and are upset because non-European minorities moved in where they grew up. They still work in northern MA, but don�t like going anywhere outside the office for fear of encountering minorities, and then they retaliate by taking lovely racist politics to NH. The connection they draw to the southern border is that �all Spanish speakers must come from the immigrant convoys in Mexico�. It�s legit a poster child for suburban poo poo, racist politics.

At a high level this bloc usually ends up aligned with libertarians and the legitimate long-time NH �good �ole boys� who are basically multi-generational rednecks of the north, most recently having been enthralled by Trump and MAGA.

The districts really do cut a decent cross section of these folks so it�s why you see primary splits between the establishment GOPs and the super MAGAs, because which R they vote for depends how much they weigh racism/business vs. MAGA fanaticism.

The good news is that while the state doesn�t skew young, a lot of well-to-do neolibs live here as well, so I think each race is leaning Dem and hopefully they can lock it up. God loving help me if a 25 year old former assistant secretary to Kayleigh Mcenany ends up as a representative.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 02:58

SimonChris: Apr 24, 2008; The Baron's daughter is missing, and you are the man to find her. No problem. With your inexhaustible arsenal of hard-boiled similes, there is nothing you can't handle.; Grimey Drawer

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1570178082052657152

The GOP winning a single seat in the midterms would be hilarious.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 09:15

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

I don't think anybody actually knows how things are going to shake up at this point.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 09:18

AlexDeGruven: Jun 29, 2007; Watch me pull my dongle out of this tiny box

Looking like a rail strike has been averted, so I'm sure some other models will update soon.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 10:44

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

AlexDeGruven posted:

Looking like a rail strike has been averted, so I'm sure some other models will update soon.

Extremely suspiciously light on details and whether they're actually giving the workers any reason not to strike.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 10:51

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 00:47

AlexDeGruven: Jun 29, 2007; Watch me pull my dongle out of this tiny box

Ghost Leviathan posted:

Extremely suspiciously light on details and whether they're actually giving the workers any reason not to strike.

Yeah, it's early yet. I'm guessing more details will come.

# ? Sep 15, 2022 10:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

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