US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

«‹›106 »

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Cawthorne won't get access to coke and orgies anymore. A real loss for him, but a win for rotten trees everywhere.

Also: Fetterman conquered.

Feel free to post your Midterm voting/hot takes in here.

# ? May 18, 2022 13:49

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 4, 2024 08:17

rare Magic card l00k: Jan 3, 2011

Ohio is going to look close enough in polling to give people hope Tim Ryan will win, only for us to be left wondering how anyone thought JD Vance wasn't going to win once the votes are counted.

# ? May 18, 2022 19:10

How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

They do matter, and all of this matters. Looks like it was not a bad night for progressives, which is heartening.

# ? May 18, 2022 19:31

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

How are u posted:

They do matter, and all of this matters. Looks like it was not a bad night for progressives, which is heartening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX-YfuVQmX8

# ? May 18, 2022 19:36

Xombie: May 22, 2004; Soul Thrashing Black Sorcery

rare Magic card l00k posted:

Ohio is going to look close enough in polling to give people hope Tim Ryan will win, only for us to be left wondering how anyone thought JD Vance wasn't going to win once the votes are counted.

And DeWine is going to cruise to a blowout carried by centrist Dem voters who still credit him with shutting down the state for a whole month and a half in 2020 until he was threatened with being primaried.

# ? May 18, 2022 20:54

Terminal autist: May 17, 2018; by vyelkin

Hard agree with the thread title but I'm sure thats not the intention. You're liable to have more of a positive impact bringing shrooms to your local schoolboard meeting than any amount of voting, organising, or activism.

# ? May 18, 2022 21:29

Youth Decay: Aug 18, 2015

When are we going to find out who won the PA GOP senate primary? I assume there will be a recount?

# ? May 18, 2022 21:59

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

I really hope Fetterman's health is okay.

NY Times published an op ed today, "Is John Fetterman the Future of the Democratic Party?", which, despite the way the headline is worded, doesn't really answer the question. I have absolutely used the phrase "future of the party" myself - it's almost uncanny how much he turns the general public perception of the left on its head.

Most of this is stuff people here are already familiar with, but it's always interesting to see how it gets filtered through an outlet like the Times.

Michael Sokolove in the NYT posted:

John Fetterman�s resounding victory in the Democratic Pennsylvania Senate primary was not surprising, but it was uncharacteristic.

Pennsylvania Democrats do not ordinarily veer too far from the center lane, and they are cautious about whom they send forward from their primaries to take on Republicans in general elections. They�re not gamblers, and given the state�s perennially up-for-grabs status and its unforgiving electoral math, you could argue they shouldn�t be.

But on Tuesday, Democrats made Mr. Fetterman, the state�s lieutenant governor, their nominee to compete for the seat being vacated by the retiring Republican Pat Toomey. (They did it despite Mr. Fetterman�s recent health scare; last week he suffered a stroke, but he said that he was on his way to �a full recovery.�)

Conor Lamb, 37, a Pittsburgh-area congressman, would have been a more conventional choice. His House voting record tracks to the center, and he has been compared to the state�s three-term Democratic senator, Bob Casey, a moderate and the son of a former Pennsylvania governor.

Mr. Fetterman, 52, offers something different, a new model for Pennsylvania. It is built on quirky personal and political appeal rather than the caution of a traditional Democrat in the Keystone State. With over 80 percent of the votes counted, Mr. Fetterman was more than doubling the total of Mr. Lamb, whose campaign, despite winning many more endorsements from party leaders, never gained momentum.

For Democrats, the stakes are high: The outcome may well determine the balance of the evenly divided U.S. Senate, future votes to confirm Supreme Court nominees and much else in our bitterly divided nation.

Nearly every story about Mr. Fetterman points out his 6-foot-8 frame, shaved head, tattoos and preferred attire � work clothes from Carhartt, a brand long favored by construction workers and miners and more recently by hip-hop artists. He sometimes attends public events in baggy gym shorts.

It is all part of a style that has won him passionate followers among progressive Democrats. Mr. Fetterman has been a frequent presence on MSNBC and is a skilled social media practitioner, with over 400,000 Twitter followers. (His dogs, Levi and Artie, have their own Twitter account and more than 25,000 followers.) It can sometimes seem that he skirts the line between being a traditional candidate and an internet influencer.

�Fetterman doesn�t have supporters so much as full-on fans,� The Philadelphia Inquirer noted during the campaign. �Fans who write songs about him, buy his merch and know his life story.�

Mr. Fetterman has served as lieutenant governor since 2019 and, before that, for four terms was the mayor of Braddock, a town east of Pittsburgh with just over 1,700 residents. He vows to conduct a �67-county campaign� � the whole of Pennsylvania.

Rebecca Katz, his senior political adviser, told me that she believes the campaign�s mantra of �every county, every vote� is being received with too much skepticism and said that people �haven�t seen what kind of map he can run on in Pennsylvania.�

But he still must solve the math of an evenly divided state: A Democrat hoping to win in Pennsylvania has to thread an electoral needle.

Mr. Fetterman will face either the celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz or the financier David McCormick.

In the fall Mr. Fetterman will need to pile up huge winning margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and win by healthy margins in their suburbs and the state�s few other pockets of blue in order to withstand the lopsided totals that Republicans win nearly everywhere else.

In less populous counties, as recently as 2008, Barack Obama took 40 percent of the vote or more, but as polarization has increased, Democrats have struggled to get even 25 percent.

State Democrats hoped that Joe Biden, a Pennsylvania native and senator from neighboring Delaware � and a white septuagenarian running in a state that is whiter and older than the national average � could reverse that trend. But he did only marginally better than Hillary Clinton four years earlier, cutting the margins by a couple of percentage points but hardly reversing the trend of Democrats being routed in the smaller counties.

That Mr. Biden could not do better outside the cities and close-in suburbs has made many Democrats pessimistic about what�s possible in those areas. Mr. Fetterman�s background, his attention to the state�s rural communities and his manner � the work clothes, a straightforward speaking style � could make some difference. In the winning Fetterman model, he narrows the massive margins that have been run up by Republicans.

His positions do not differ that much from more traditional Democrats�, but some of his central concerns do set him apart. A signature issue has been the legalization of marijuana � �legal weed,� as he calls it. He has flown a flag displaying cannabis leaves from the lieutenant governor�s office, alongside a rainbow-colored L.G.B.T.Q. banner.

The advocacy of legal marijuana may be the rare issue that draws support from unpredictable corners and crosses all kinds of lines � including urban and rural.

The lieutenant governor in Pennsylvania has few defined duties, but as chairman of the Board of Pardons, Mr. Fetterman modernized an outdated system and granted clemency in cases where it was long overdue.

Mr. Fetterman�s one glaring departure from progressive causes, and a nod to Pennsylvania realpolitik, is that he does not support a ban on fracking, the environmentally questionable hydraulic extraction of natural gas. Tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians have benefited financially from it by selling drilling rights on their land, working in the industry or both.

Mr. Fetterman�s most worrisome vulnerability is his appeal to his party�s most dependable voting bloc: Black voters in Philadelphia and the state�s other urban centers, the places where any Democrat running statewide must mine the largest trove of votes. Only about 10 percent of the state�s voters are Black, but they are an essential component of the margins that the party runs up in the cities.

Mr. Fetterman�s challenge stems in large part from a 2013 incident in Braddock, when he used his shotgun to stop a Black jogger and detained him until police arrived. Mr. Fetterman, who was mayor at the time, told police he had heard gunshots in the area and suspected the jogger. Police searched the man and released him after they found no weapon.

The incident has come up during the campaign, and Mr. Fetterman�s responses have been awkward, at best.

�He has said he did not actually point the gun, but what difference does that make?� said Mark Kelly Tyler, the pastor of Mother Bethel African Methodist Episcopal Church, one of the nation�s oldest A.M.E. churches. �Even if he admitted that it was from his implicit bias and says that he has learned from it, that would actually be better. It would be accepted.�

Mr. Tyler said that if Mr. Fetterman does not do a better job of explaining it, the incident will be �weaponized on Black talk radio and elsewhere� and used by his opponent in the fall to depress turnout.

Mr. Fetterman won by huge margins all across Pennsylvania, with one notable exception: Philadelphia. There, it was a close race against a third Democratic primary candidate, Malcolm Kenyatta, a city resident and the first Black openly gay member of the state legislature.

With the primary complete, everything is reset. In a big state with six television markets, the candidates will likely combine to spend $200 million or more � much of it, undoubtedly, in an attempt to label each other as too extreme for middle-of-the-road Pennsylvania.

Mr. Fetterman�s progressive politics and persona appeal to younger people. They lean to the left and are always potentially influential in any election. But they are also traditionally the least reliable voters, especially in nonpresidential years.

In Pennsylvania and all other battleground states, it always comes down to the math. The state�s graying electorate does not always like new things or ideas.

Mr. Fetterman is ultimately going to have to go where the votes are. And if he has a problem with Black voters, he will have to solve it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/opinion/john-fetterman-pennsylvania-democratic-party.html

# ? May 18, 2022 22:15

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Mellow Seas posted:

I really hope Fetterman's health is okay.

NY Times published an op ed today, "Is John Fetterman the Future of the Democratic Party?", which, despite the way the headline is worded, doesn't really answer the question. I have absolutely used the phrase "future of the party" myself - it's almost uncanny how much he turns the general public perception of the left on its head.

Most of this is stuff people here are already familiar with, but it's always interesting to see how it gets filtered through an outlet like the Times.

Per Twitter, he just had a pacemaker/defib device surgically implanted, so he should be okay.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1526694074178314243?s=20&t=t8SfrH_cmJGatekVoLEVxw

# ? May 18, 2022 22:17

Blue Footed Booby: Oct 4, 2006; got those happy feet

Terminal autist posted:

Hard agree with the thread title but I'm sure thats not the intention. You're liable to have more of a positive impact bringing shrooms to your local schoolboard meeting than any amount of voting, organising, or activism.

And yet it's still more constructive than this post.

# ? May 19, 2022 00:49

DarkCrawler: Apr 6, 2009; by vyelkin

I can't wait for the results of this election, when U.S. is politically paralyzed instead of being politically paralyzed.

# ? May 19, 2022 04:27

Terminal autist: May 17, 2018; by vyelkin

Blue Footed Booby posted:

And yet it's still more constructive than this post.

Are you surprised that the collective singular minute it took both of us to type these posts and it didn't result in political change? Posting is not praxis and no one making decisions is taking policy from SA, but you knew this of course.

# ? May 19, 2022 18:30

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

More encouraging news from PA - results are not yet official but it appears that Summer Lee has beaten Steve Irwin in PA-12 (Pittsburgh), in another victory for progressives. This is a major defeat for the pro-Israel lobby, and yet another reminder that voters actually do choose the candidates.

Vanity Fair - SUMMER LEE, DECLARING VICTORY IN PENNSYLVANIA, PUTS DARK MONEY DEMOCRATS ON NOTICE

quote:

Around seven weeks before Pennsylvania�s primary elections, Summer Lee commanded a lead of 25 points over rival Steve Irwin in the race for Pennsylvania�s 12th District, a blue stronghold encompassing Pittsburgh and its surrounding suburbs. It appeared that Lee, 34, a Black woman and progressive activist who currently serves as a Pennsylvania state representative, would make history. Then came the outside money. By election day, Democratic groups had dumped more than $2 million into the primary race to defeat Lee�dwarfing the outside money spent attacking Irwin, a mere $2,400. Specifically, the United Democracy Project (UDP)�a political action committee for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)�spent $2,025,297 against Lee and $660,317 in support of Irwin, 62, a Pittsburgh lawyer and county Democratic Party organizer. The ads painted Lee as anti-Israel and claimed she was �not a real Democrat,� following a playbook that moderate groups have run against other progressives nationwide, including against Pennsylvania�s Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman.

Having the actually-good candidate win is not only a good unto itself, but could also help boost turnout in Pittsburgh and strengthen Fetterman's performance in the Senate race, which is probably the best pickup opportunity the Dems have.

# ? May 20, 2022 19:20

MSB3000: Jul 30, 2008

CommieGIR posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qX-YfuVQmX8

I am torn between using ATHF as my philosophical guiding light, versus hope for a better future.

# ? May 20, 2022 19:58

Calibanibal: Aug 25, 2015

Democrats will probably hold onto the House, the big question right now is how many seats can we pick up in the Senate? I think we're gonna have to hit 54 (55 is better just to be safe) to accomplish all the big necessary projects before the next presidential election.

# ? May 20, 2022 20:14

Bel Shazar: Sep 14, 2012

Calibanibal posted:

Democrats will probably hold onto the House, the big question right now is how many seats can we pick up in the Senate? I think we're gonna have to hit 54 (55 is better just to be safe) to accomplish all the big necessary projects before the next presidential election.

I wish they were the party which could pull that off in this cycle.

# ? May 20, 2022 23:23

DarkCrawler: Apr 6, 2009; by vyelkin

Calibanibal posted:

Democrats will probably hold onto the House, the big question right now is how many seats can we pick up in the Senate? I think we're gonna have to hit 54 (55 is better just to be safe) to accomplish all the big necessary projects before the next presidential election.

I mean isn't the answer none? Aren't are projections looking at Democrats losing seats?

# ? May 21, 2022 00:32

Crows Turn Off: Jan 7, 2008

DarkCrawler posted:

I mean isn't the answer none? Aren't are projections looking at Democrats losing seats?

Yeah, I thought Democrats were expected to lose pretty handily in the Midterms.

# ? May 21, 2022 07:48

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

Quick law question: What can the DOJ/Administration can do if faithless swing states decide to decertify their state's election results? I've been told it's a lot more complicated to overturn a state's electors than just the Gov and StateSec saying 'nuh uh', but I'm unknowing of the legal mechanisms.

# ? May 21, 2022 09:30

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

Grouchio posted:

Quick law question: What can the DOJ/Administration can do if faithless swing states decide to decertify their state's election results? I've been told it's a lot more complicated to overturn a state's electors than just the Gov and StateSec saying 'nuh uh', but I'm unknowing of the legal mechanisms.

We ask 9 people in black robes if they are allowed to do that

# ? May 21, 2022 16:39

Bel Shazar: Sep 14, 2012

Grouchio posted:

Quick law question: What can the DOJ/Administration can do if faithless swing states decide to decertify their state's election results? I've been told it's a lot more complicated to overturn a state's electors than just the Gov and StateSec saying 'nuh uh', but I'm unknowing of the legal mechanisms.

At that point you're really describing the dissolution of the federal state or a civil war.

# ? May 21, 2022 17:11

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Bel Shazar posted:

At that point you're really describing the dissolution of the federal state or a civil war.

I think a more likely scenario for the time being is that there will just be a lot of tut-tutting from liberals in blue states, morphing into impotent acceptance. That's how everything else has gone, and I don't see this being a big enough threat to their material conditions to make a major break like that. I don't know though. The breakup is inevitable at some point, but I see it coming when general stability and living conditions degrade more.

# ? May 21, 2022 18:04

Bel Shazar: Sep 14, 2012

cat botherer posted:

I think a more likely scenario for the time being is that there will just be a lot of tut-tutting from liberals in blue states, morphing into impotent acceptance. That's how everything else has gone, and I don't see this being a big enough threat to their material conditions to make a major break like that. I don't know though. The breakup is inevitable at some point, but I see it coming when general stability and living conditions degrade more.

Totally agree. The OP framed it as the administration actually doing something. I agree nothing meaningful being done is the most likely outcome.

# ? May 21, 2022 18:14

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Everything is going to be alright. The expert has arrived!

https://twitter.com/SallyGold/status/1527781705691676672?s=20

Let's talk about how crime is high everywhere, that will surely re-elect the party in power.

# ? May 21, 2022 18:54

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

Nonsense posted:

Everything is going to be alright. The expert has arrived!

https://twitter.com/SallyGold/status/1527781705691676672?s=20

Let's talk about how crime is high everywhere, that will surely re-elect the party in power.

He's pitching parades in every small town again.

# ? May 21, 2022 19:15

Yawgmoft: Nov 15, 2004

I don't know how well "be black, be a man, don't have your regressive positions be well known" can be replicated country wide.

# ? May 22, 2022 04:51

Xand_Man: Mar 2, 2004; If what you say is true
Wutang might be dangerous

What if Obama, but a loving idiot

# ? May 22, 2022 05:10

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Dont worry, they are paying him in crypto!

# ? May 22, 2022 05:13

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

Democraps are going to be destroyed

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? May 22, 2022 06:20

DarkCrawler: Apr 6, 2009; by vyelkin

Nonsense posted:

Everything is going to be alright. The expert has arrived!

https://twitter.com/SallyGold/status/1527781705691676672?s=20

Let's talk about how crime is high everywhere, that will surely re-elect the party in power.

From I've read of this guy it is not the issue of him being a great or terrible communicator but more an indecipherable one...which is a terrible communicator, now that I think of it.

# ? May 22, 2022 14:09

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

DarkCrawler posted:

From I've read of this guy it is not the issue of him being a great or terrible communicator but more an indecipherable one...which is a terrible communicator, now that I think of it.

I dunno, politics are weird. Sometimes if what you say is indecipherable, and you're charismatic enough, people will decide what you really mean is "I agree with you!" It can be very effective.

He's dropped from 46-27 approval to 43-37 since February, so he's probably not charismatic enough.

# ? May 22, 2022 15:01

Calibanibal: Aug 25, 2015

DarkCrawler posted:

I mean isn't the answer none? Aren't are projections looking at Democrats losing seats?

I dont trust projections this far out. Its very likely that come election day Biden will have already won the war in Ukraine, solved the baby formula crisis, erased a huge chunk of student loan debt and taken steps to combat inflation. If that doesn't earn us seats, nothing will.

# ? May 22, 2022 16:54

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Calibanibal posted:

I dont trust projections this far out. Its very likely that come election day Biden will have already won the war in Ukraine, solved the baby formula crisis, erased a huge chunk of student loan debt and taken steps to combat inflation. If that doesn't earn us seats, nothing will.

That is an astonishingly rosy projection - some of those problems may be solved, but the economy is making GBS threads the bed, supply chain issues aren't improving (there will be other shortages), etc...

"Taking steps to combat inflation" means demand destruction, which means pain and misery.

Ukraine will not be over by then. It's following the pattern of every quagmire that one of these things has turned into.

And there's this new thing called monkeypox with 6 confirmed transmissions on a transatlantic flight and currently undergoing exponential growth (ok, not new, but a bunch of new mutations and spreading for the first time outside Africa).

# ? May 22, 2022 16:57

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

Calibanibal posted:

I dont trust projections this far out. Its very likely that come election day Biden will have already won the war in Ukraine, solved the baby formula crisis, erased a huge chunk of student loan debt and taken steps to combat inflation. If that doesn't earn us seats, nothing will.

On top of that we will have the nonstop screaming abortion headlines of someone getting arrested or another restriction snapping into place.

# ? May 22, 2022 16:58

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

I anticipate an outcome that will perfectly match all of my preconceived ideas and deeply-held aesthetic beliefs about the nature of the American electorate.

I figure the House is pretty hosed but I am cautiously optimistic about the Senate, just because there seem to be a crop of "I'm not a witch" grade contenders there.

# ? May 22, 2022 20:55

smoobles: Sep 4, 2014

I just hope all the candidates have a good time.

# ? May 22, 2022 21:18

A big flaming stink: Apr 26, 2010

Friendly reminder calibanibal is one of the finest gimmick posters this forum has to offer

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? May 23, 2022 02:25

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Yeah I don't think that post was really on the level. 55-56 Senators is not on the table and honestly betting on the Dems to keep the House would be, uhhh, an interesting decision.

The following Senate races are rated as toss-ups in the Cook political report:
PA - Currently R
WI - R
AZ - D
GA - D
NV - D

Weak Dem lean:
NH-D

It's pretty unlikely any states will flip outside of those, so 52 would be the upper limit for Dems - the next best chances for pickups would be NC, FL and OH which are tough for Dems when it's not a terrible year for them.

So 46-52 seats.

# ? May 23, 2022 05:15

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

*strokes neckbeard on chin rolls* i do detect a bit of trolling in this thread m'lady

# ? May 23, 2022 06:05

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 4, 2024 08:17

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

*strokes neckbeard on chin rolls* i do detect a bit of trolling in this thread m'lady

To be fair to me, there has been a lot of sincere delusional optimism-posting on this forum lately. I can't sit idly by while there are sick freaks out there with hope.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

edit: Gentlemen, you can't joke in here, this is a comedy forum!

cat botherer fucked around with this message at 14:30 on May 25, 2022

# ? May 23, 2022 15:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

«‹›106 »