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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570023513095868418 Seems bad man!
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Sep 14, 2022 14:34
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FishBulbia posted:I hope she stays safe. Azerbaijan is going to use the collapse of Russia's forces and the EUs dependence on Azerbaijani oil to take as much as they can.  I offered support but not sure there's anything we collectively or I personally could do as there's probably no way of getting out at the moment.Do you have a clear idea of what specifically they want? Is it about a corridor to Nakhchivan or a buffer are? I have the other war to worry about so I haven't been able follow this closely. Well it's better than attacking Armenian targets, but definitely a good way to kick something off
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Sep 14, 2022 14:46
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mobby_6kl posted:That's what she said too They were proclaiming that they need a buffer area to protect themselves from Armenia or some poo poo.
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Sep 14, 2022 15:03
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mobby_6kl posted:That's what she said too I think the official claim is about Armenia failing to open the corridor. But I think they're going to probably try to take all Syunik (the 'tail' part of the country). Either way, it loving sucks that Armenia's existence was essentially dependent on Russia's ability to project power. I'm not confident that Azerbaijan and Turkey won't just try to eat the country whole.
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Sep 14, 2022 15:09
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Just so everyone can see how big of an existential deal this is for Armenia, the green polygons are confirmed advances since morning.
FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Sep 14, 2022 |
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Sep 14, 2022 15:23
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FSB denies that Russian soldiers were injured in the attack, suspiciously not commenting on whether they were attacked at all or not.
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Sep 14, 2022 16:35
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https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1570053561525932033 https://twitter.com/jkass99/status/1570069773727186948
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Sep 14, 2022 19:50
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What's the right thread for Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan stuff anyway?
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Sep 14, 2022 20:02
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There is a rumor on the internet that Pashinyan surrendered Artsakh and protestors are flocking downtown in Yerevan.
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Sep 14, 2022 20:03
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slurm posted:What's the right thread for Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan stuff anyway? This one as well. Everything in the OP map is welcome here anyhow, and I’ll gladly break out or bless distinct threads if it garners meaningful attention - historically we haven’t had many posters discussing southern Caucasus or Central Asia in great detail.
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Sep 14, 2022 20:06
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This one as well. Everything in the OP map is welcome here anyhow, and I’ll gladly break out or bless distinct threads if it garners meaningful attention - historically we haven’t had many posters discussing southern Caucasus or Central Asia in great detail. Hopefully someone turns out to be knowledgeable about these things, it's remarkable to me to see two Turkic countries armed with Turkish weapons going on the warpath instantly like this. Bayraktar as emblem of a vigorous pan-Turkism?
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Sep 14, 2022 20:31
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slurm posted:Hopefully someone turns out to be knowledgeable about these things, it's remarkable to me to see two Turkic countries armed with Turkish weapons going on the warpath instantly like this. Bayraktar as emblem of a vigorous pan-Turkism? Pan-Turkism hasn't been particularly relevant in the Central Asian states after independence (it was, sort of, a big deal immediately prior to the formation of the USSR). Turkey had attempted to make overtures to that effect, but didn't succeed much (and has since regretted some of their initial attempts after domestic power shifts. A shared post-Soviet culture was more prevalent (though there's also been a resurgence of interest in Islam) and economic ties with Russia were far more relevant than ties with any new pan-Turkic community, which are further hindered by ongoing disagreements with other Turkic nations in the region. The Ukraine war has shaken that up a fair bit, but it's still too early to say how that will affect relations within the region. Turkey's willingness to sell weapons systems to whomever (other than the Armenians) isn't irrelevant, but the fracturing of ties with Russia is pushing the Central Asian states to engage more with everyone else--they've also been talking more with China, Iran, and Afghanistan/Pakistan, all of which share closer geography than Turkey. That all said, border skirmishes in the Fergana region aren't exactly uncommon and aren't likely to lead to war. The borders are a mess, unmarked, and have no shortage of idiot teenagers on guard duty.
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Sep 14, 2022 21:38
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golden bubble posted:https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1570053561525932033 It will be a sad appendix to the Ukrainian war if it ends up being the case that one of the dominos it set in motion is the ethnic cleansing of Armenians once again. gently caress at this point I feel like the best case scenario is for Russia to abandon all the occupied territory in Ukraine and declare a ceasefire and send all those troops down to the Caucasus, which of course is an absurd fantasy scenario that will never happen. khwarezm fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Sep 14, 2022 |
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Sep 14, 2022 21:42
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khwarezm posted:It will be a sad appendix to the Ukrainian war if it ends up being the case that one of the dominos it set in motion is the ethnic cleansing of Armenians once again. technically Armenia is party to the CSTO and can invoke its collective defense agreement, which will presumably result in Russia saying "sorry, nah" again. Kazakhstan already did, apparently confusing a bunch of people on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ReidStan/status/1570148249075601410
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Sep 14, 2022 21:50
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For when people ask in a few years how the world could've stood by and let this happen https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1549008925806268416?s=20&t=2oSXgqq6MjzxnKm90PS11A
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Sep 14, 2022 22:14
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FishBulbia posted:For when people ask in a few years how the world could've stood by and let this happen Another reason might be that Armenia occupied a part of Azerbaijan, and their puppet state Artsakh has never been recognized by anyone. I know that Azeris' attacks are hitting Armenia proper too but the bottom line is that they are fighting to reclaim their own territory. It's hard to oppose that while supporting Ukraine in reclaiming Donbas.
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Sep 14, 2022 23:04
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Doctor Malaver posted:Another reason might be that Armenia occupied a part of Azerbaijan, and their puppet state Artsakh has never been recognized by anyone. I know that Azeris' attacks are hitting Armenia proper too but the bottom line is that they are fighting to reclaim their own territory. It's hard to oppose that while supporting Ukraine in reclaiming Donbas. Principles of self determination are dead? I guess? Regardless, Azerbaijan can make the international law argument once it stops lopping the heads off of any Armenian civilian that doesn't flee from its advance in time.
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Sep 14, 2022 23:13
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https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1570174106489991169 Hopefully? But I wouldn't consider this confirmed until an Azerbaijani official confirms it too. As for the conflict, remember that struggles for Nagorno-Karabakh began well before either country got independence. It's less occupied territory, and more like an originally multicultural region that got an arbitrary line drawn down the middle by a European power (Stalin in this case) that immediately exploded into sectarian war the second the European colonizers left.
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Sep 15, 2022 00:07
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https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1570017369300295680 Uhhh
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Sep 15, 2022 13:05
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The European Parliament also just declared that Hungary is not a democracy.quote:Believes that, taken together, the facts and trends, as illustrated by Parliament’s resolutions, represent a systemic threat to the values of Article 2 TEU and constitute a clear risk of a serious breach thereof; expresses deep concern about and condemns the deliberate and systematic efforts of the Hungarian Government to undermine the founding values of the Union enshrined in Article 2 TEU; highlights that these trends have substantially worsened since the triggering of Article 7(1) TEU; stresses that the Hungarian Government bears responsibility for the restoration of compliance with EU law and the values enshrined in Article 2 TEU and expresses deep regret that the lack of decisive EU action has contributed to a breakdown in democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary, turning the country into a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy, according to the relevant indices; Emphasis mine, from the INTERIM REPORT on the proposal for a Council decision determining, pursuant to Article 7(1) of the Treaty on European Union, the existence of a clear risk of a serious breach by Hungary of the values on which the Union is founded
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Sep 15, 2022 14:35
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 A map of speculative positions as of the ceasefire. Obviously the Azeris did not take very much, but there simply isn't very much Armenia, so not much Salami tactics needed. No populated points captured though.
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Sep 15, 2022 15:37
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golden bubble posted:As for the conflict, remember that struggles for Nagorno-Karabakh began well before either country got independence. It's less occupied territory, and more like an originally multicultural region that got an arbitrary line drawn down the middle by a European power (Stalin in this case) that immediately exploded into sectarian war the second the European colonizers left. Wasn't like 2/3rds of the territory of controlled by the Artsakh outside the historical "Nagorno-Karabakh" boundaries though? That would be to me very much explicitly occupied territory, where the Armenians had done a full blown complete ethnic cleansing of cities entirely settled by Azeris prior to 1990. Like even if you look on Google Maps you can see tons of destroyed cities in the countryside that was controlled by the Artsakh administration, most notably Aghdam but also all sorts of smaller settlements. Like drat, you can directly see the lines of pre-2020 Nagorno Karabakh by looking at Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/place/A...94!4d46.9297085 Look at Qapanli there. The parts controlled by the Artsakh government are ruined, blighted land that look like Mordor. The parts controlled by Azerbaijan look like happy green farming fields, look at what an immediate contrast that is. Follow that ring of blight around south and count all the destroyed and ethnically cleansed villages with ruined land, stretching all the way to the Iranian border in like a 100km by 15 km thick band of death. Even places that aren't in the band of death but that were ethnically cleansed by Armenians, like Kalbajar, look like absolute hell. I mean I'm sure there were mitigating circumstances prior to 1990 that address why they ethnically cleansed the Azeris during their moment of power, but everything I've ever read about the conflict makes me feel about as sorry for the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh as I do for Israeli settlers in the West Bank, even though they had a rough time of the preceding like, 2000 years. Even recently, with the Shusa bypass road and the new road from the Lachin corridor to ethnically Armenian NK, the Azeris completed their part of the road in time, and the Armenians appear to have done like, gently caress all on their part of the deal for the road construction. I have no dog in this fight, but personally I won't lose any sleep over buying Azeri gas this winter unless they actually invade Armenia proper or unless they re-invade NK and start ethnic cleansing there. Even in the relatively limited parts where Azerbaijan did re-capture where ethnic Armenians had colonized, it looks like the Armenians there mostly destroyed their houses and torched their fields before leaving, all on their own initiative. I mean I wouldn't stay either and I do feel a little bit bad for NK people who live/lived in Hadrut or Shusha who were not post-1990 colonists, but everyone settled outside of those areas, like in Kalbajar, knew 100% that they were in land that had been ethnically cleansed of the actual owners within very recent times and that the real owners were in refugee housing in Baku. E: Wow, even worse than I thought if this article is true. The population of NK in 2019: 150k. The number of Azeris ethnically cleansed from the territory captured by Artsakh in 1990: 600k. ( https://time.com/6208925/shusha-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-capital/ ) Like is there something major I'm missing? I also have seen all sorts of stuff about Armenia stonewalling the Azeris for a Nakhchivan corridor for decades too. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 17:23
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I really should know considering my background but since my ancestral homes are in two unrelated ongoing wars, it's a bit  My very basic understanding is that NK was a mixed area with an Armenian majority, but during USSR border drawing they decided to give the territory to the Azerbaijan SSR. The Armenians tried to get the borders changed around the end of the union, but Gorby said it's not possible. Eventually this led to protests, pogroms, ethnic cleansing and finally Armenia took the territory during the war with Russia's backing. Then they did some more ethnic cleansing. I honestly can't tell at this point who started exactly what and who did more atrocities. The Azeri regime is not nice though. https://twitter.com/presidentaz/status/560718307515318272 This is their guy in charge, and they're super friendly with Turkey, which also has... a history with Armenia. Armenia is in the meantime democratic and the current government has nothing to do with what happened in the 80s. They do have their own nationalist assholes though that threaten to overthrow the government if any concessions are made. I don't really know what exactly they're stonewalling and if it's reasonable objection. E: I was looking for some material on this and came across this paper on the Khojaly genocide by the Department of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan so... take it with a grain of salt, but it could be instructive to see what their position is https://files.preslib.az/projects/khojali/enkhojali/gl1.pdf mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 18:00
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I think a lot of people just can't comprehend how officially racist the Caucasus are. Now, I'm not saying if Armenia took over Azeri land they would treat civilians with the dignity and respect all humans deserve, but I know that the Azeris won't, and they're far far more likely to take land.
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Sep 15, 2022 19:17
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Saladman posted:
The city of Aghdam which you cite is kind of a case in point. Aghdam - itself used as a launching point for indiscriminate artillery attacks and military raids - was brutally destroyed in revenge for the massive destruction done to the town of Martakert earlier in the war. The war itself seems to be an escalating cycle of violence that really kicked off when the Azeris dissolved the autonomous government of NK, a point which they continue to refuse to compromise on - articles i've read state that currently the Azeris plan to extend 'limited cultural autonomy', with 'perhaps a say in local government' to the Armenians in the area. Not exactly encouraging. Fun fact: Azerbaijan named the newly-retaken economic region on the Armenian border 'East Zangezur'. There is no West Zangezur; it was a rather naked statement of their intent to create one by conquering Armenian territory.
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Sep 15, 2022 19:22
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FishBulbia posted:I think a lot of people just can't comprehend how officially racist the Caucasus are. Now, I'm not saying if Armenia took over Azeri land they would treat civilians with the dignity and respect all humans deserve, but I know that the Azeris won't, and they're far far more likely to take land. Yeah. I’m not the hugest fan of Artsakh around, but Aliyev is a sociopathic dictator perfectly comfortable with torturing locals who look at him wrong, and any military moves Azerbaijan could make towards Artsakh or Armenia will be characterised “just” by excessive cruelty in the best case scenario.
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Sep 15, 2022 19:22
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Well for starters the Azeris have already invaded Armenia proper.  Yeah, this is the new claim circulating around on social media. It would probably mean the end of Armenian statehood. The shaded green would be a demilitarized zone patrolled by Azeri "peacekeepers." Of course, you can find equally absurd nationalist maps from the Armenian side, but its just like how Ukrainian claims on the Volga are not as much of a concern as Russian claims on Kharkiv.
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Sep 15, 2022 19:34
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Jesus christ that map. It might be a psycho nationalist dream but... they psycho nationalists are also in charge.  I know this is a distraction from the other two or three wars we have going on but I completely forgot that it was literally just last year that Lukashenka tried to blackmail the EU by trafficking people from Iraq. What a year. The reason this came up is that I got to this video about the plot by Anders Puck Nuelsen (he does naval and Ukraine videos now) which could be interesting for anyone who missed that situation, so I thought I'd share https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6wQzxTu01I
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Sep 15, 2022 19:48
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Not an expert on this by any means, but since this is the internet...my take: Without a supranational authority like the USSR to keep the peace, the region started to self-organize along ethnic lines via pogrom. Both sides engaged in ethnic cleansing (both sides-ism!) and eventually Armenia took NK with Russian help, then made the population overwhelmingly Armenian. There is no right/wrong in this kind of ethnic conflict. In a just world, the UN would step in, put an immediate end to hostilities via peacekeepers if necessary, and some sort of reasonable compromise would be worked out that would take into account the recognized borders while balancing the practical considerations of established populations in the area. We do not live in that world. And that's especially true with how much attention is on Ukraine right now. So we'll get the usual: a bunch of nationalists cheerleading while sending others to do the dying for them. And Turkey gets to poke Armenia in the eye again. It is interesting though how quickly Russia is experiencing the consequences of their Ukrainian misadventure. There's clearly some realignment going on.
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Sep 15, 2022 20:24
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Vietnom nom nom posted:Not an expert on this by any means, but since this is the internet...my take: quote:"One of the leading figures in the Kremlin, A. Mikoyan played a major role in the execution of the It's really like an onion of atrocities. Or a nesting doll. Of course russia refused to let international peacekeepers earlier and now Armenia is fully dependent on their Wish.com NATO for protection. Hopefully the threat of some response and pressure from EU/US would get Aliev to cut it out. No matter who's fault is what historically, nothing good can come out form them taking more territory by force now.
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Sep 15, 2022 22:15
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I visited Armenia 7 years ago and saw a country that was 1. staggeringly poor (and my reference point are the Balkans) 2. isolated 3. depopulated with a very poor demographics outlook In that situation the last thing you'd want to spend your meager resources and political capital is a puppet state on another country's territory. But they were also 4. nationalist with a sense of entitlement Leaving, I had a strong impression that country is going nowhere past. I feel sorry for all the victims of war and ethnic cleansing, but can't say I feel sorry for Armenian political ambitions. Then again, I didn't visit Azerbaijan, maybe I'd get an even worse impression there...
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Sep 15, 2022 23:00
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Doctor Malaver posted:I visited Armenia 7 years ago and saw a country that was I'm not sure about the demographics on their part (probably not awesome, considering former Soviet Union) but Azerbaijan, though it is incredibly unequal, is not super poor (nominal GDP per capita is almost 4x Armenia's), and with its oil and gas and its relationship with Turkey (and Israel), not as isolated as Armenia.
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Sep 15, 2022 23:07
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Randarkman posted:I'm not sure about the demographics on their part (probably not awesome, considering former Soviet Union) but Azerbaijan, though it is incredibly unequal, is not super poor (nominal GDP per capita is almost 4x Armenia's), and with its oil and gas and its relationship with Turkey (and Israel), not as isolated as Armenia. Their population is steadily growing. At the time USSR broke up they were twice the Armenia's number. Now they are more than three times.
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Sep 15, 2022 23:22
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Doctor Malaver posted:I visited Armenia 7 years ago and saw a country that was  Armenia had elections in 2018 I think and since then had been working with the EU on infrastructure and social development stuff. So I think there was promise, which of course got derailed by the previous war. I guess the god news is that they don't have to support NK anymore. But nationalist hardliners are of course mad and will make negotiating anything very difficult.
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Sep 15, 2022 23:55
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Yeah wild that really attempting to entirely extinguish an identity makes people into nationalist hardliners
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Sep 16, 2022 00:11
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tangential to the USSR keeping the peace thing, i was reading some stuff and could not for the life of me find a source (in english, anyway) speaking authoritatively as to exactly why Georgia was the one non-Baltic SSR that didn't sign the Alma-Ata Protocol (though IIRC i did find something on Google Books that was about to say before the preview ended), but all the other info i can find about Georgia at the time strongly suggests it was because a nationalist militia had started marching into Tbilisi the same day, and the de jure government was busy hiding in a basement. granted, the USSR not keeping the peace in late December 1991 isn't exactly a surprise, but i still found it amusing.
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Sep 16, 2022 02:17
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I have finished my big Latvian elections post. Now I need to clean up and partially rewrite half of it or so, and I'll post it. Hopefully, later today, but we'll see how that goes.
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Sep 16, 2022 03:07
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https://twitter.com/jhaboush/status/1570554472555810817 The US is taking Armenia's side in principle, probably not in practice.
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Sep 16, 2022 13:34
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Fun fact: Azerbaijan named the newly-retaken economic region on the Armenian border 'East Zangezur'. There is no West Zangezur; it was a rather naked statement of their intent to create one by conquering Armenian territory. Yeah, Aliyev seems like a real expansionist rear end in a top hat. I also wasn't bothered at all by Russia taking Crimea and thought it was kind of reasonable, kind of like Azerbaijan retaking NK in 2020 seemed reasonably justifiable to me, so uh, I don't have a great track record there. Unfortunately I see how that worked out with Crimea just making Putin salivate more over the rest, so I can only imagine Aliyev is doing the same. Too bad there's rarely room for middle ground in territorial disputes, even – or maybe especially – in cases where both sides have reasonable and justifiable claims and real human concerns. I also looked into e.g. Shusha a little more and while it was 90% Azeri in 1990, I see the Azeris got a good massacre plus ethnic cleansing of 20k or so Armenians in 1920, which looks like it was about half of the population at the time. Although hell, it seems to be a big problem even when only one side has a justifiable claim, like in Western Sahara circa 1976, where I don't even understand why Morocco cared about that territory at the time any more than Sudan and Egypt care about the Birrwil triangle today.
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Sep 16, 2022 15:17
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Armenia-Azerbaijan isn't the only former Soviet states going to war. https://twitter.com/Peter__Leonard/status/1570685301273788416 These are both members of the CSTO by the way.
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