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Nenonen posted:Why should we try to guess about something that is still so far from realising that we have no way of predicting a single thing about it? Because it's a lot more interesting than splitting hairs over the holocaust? And perhaps relevant to the current counter offensives Ukraine is waging. It's a dead news cycle and we clearly wanna talk about something so it might as well be relevant to the actual conflict.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:23
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Kraftwerk posted:Will Russia actually end hostilities if Ukraine pushes them out of its territory? Like if the pre 2022 borders are restored with the DNR/LNR evicted or if pre 2014 borders are restored what is the end game? Presumably once Russia has been completely evicted and Ukraine has "won", they will likely get, if not full NATO membership immediately, then at least some sort of security agreement which would include US troops based in Ukraine. Once we have soldiers there and a legal obligation to defend them, that should be it. Its not really possible right now with a hot shooting war going on against a nuclear power, but once they are pushed out, there's going to be a lot of talk about security guarantees for Ukraine.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:24
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Kraftwerk posted:Because it's a lot more interesting than splitting hairs over the holocaust? And perhaps relevant to the current counter offensives Ukraine is waging. It's a dead news cycle and we clearly wanna talk about something so it might as well be relevant to the actual conflict. Can we decide to not do either? Clancychat is not a better alternative to WW2 chat.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:27
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Kraftwerk posted:Will Russia actually end hostilities if Ukraine pushes them out of its territory? Like if the pre 2022 borders are restored with the DNR/LNR evicted or if pre 2014 borders are restored what is the end game? Is Ukraine Israel and Russia Palestine in your analogy because uh
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Sep 19, 2022 14:28
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Nenonen posted:Can we decide to not do either? Clancychat is not a better alternative to WW2 chat. So is the clancychat rule specifically designed to limit speculation to short term strategic movements and outcomes because of how unpredictable war is? Up until a couple weeks ago this entire offensive was clancychat. The goalposts keep moving. KillHour posted:Is Ukraine Israel and Russia Palestine in your analogy because uh I wouldn't read much further into it. I was just looking for an example of a situation where a country needs to deal with missile attacks without having a fullscale hot war all the time.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:34
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KillHour posted:Is Ukraine Israel and Russia Palestine in your analogy because uh It's not a moral parallel, but we're moving towards a place where Russia's willingness to fight outstrips their capacity to actually do so. The difference is the Palestinians are backed into a corner and Russia can stop any time. Eventually something in the Russian government will give. But there will be a long-term tensions from Russian revanchism and bitterness. It'll be more like India and Pakistan than Israel and Palestine.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:35
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Kraftwerk posted:So is the clancychat rule specifically designed to limit speculation to short term strategic movements and outcomes because of how unpredictable war is? Well let's then discuss your guess. Cool guess... I guess? What else can be said? We don't know when the last Russian troops are forced to retreat from Ukraine, it could be this year or it could be ten years from now. With that we don't know what sort of political-economical circumstances are in place. That is very different from speculating about immediate future operations. We could instead be talking about important current events in real world: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1571776464877502464
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Sep 19, 2022 14:44
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From the responses, it sounds like you always need to take this guy's tweets with a big grain of salt. It would be nice if Ukraine keeps advancing, though.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:49
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Kraftwerk posted:So is the clancychat rule specifically designed to limit speculation to short term strategic movements and outcomes because of how unpredictable war is? I think the clancychat rule bans speculation on nuclear war or events that could be reasonably expected to lead to nuclear war, because of how unlikely it is and the pointless long arguments it could cause. I do think that wondering "ok, if Ukraine wins, then what next" is probably not clancychat, but I also agree its probably pretty far into the future. Also, the answer to "what next" is probably simple and boring; there will likely be discussions about real, meaningful security agreements to prevent a resumption of the war which could possibly include NATO membership, but something would probably be agreed to even if it is short of NATO membership. The western world is not going to spend a ridiculously huge amount of money rebuilding Ukraine without first making sure that the poo poo that gets rebuilt is not just immediately re-blown up.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:53
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Eric Cantonese posted:From the responses, it sounds like you always need to take this guy's tweets with a big grain of salt. It would be nice if Ukraine keeps advancing, though. Former SEAL Team Six Squadron Leader, NYT Best Selling Author, Conflict Correspondent, Husband, Dad, Hollywood Screenwriter and Epic Snowboarder.
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Sep 19, 2022 14:54
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Because the answer for what comes next is always "the stupidest poo poo imaginable," the end game for the war will probably be Russia asserting control over a 500 ft wide smoldering crater in Bilovodsk and they keep trying to sneak a construction crew over the border to build an administrative office there. Hey, it's just as valid as any other theory. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 19, 2022 14:57
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Kraftwerk posted:So is the clancychat rule specifically designed to limit speculation to short term strategic movements and outcomes because of how unpredictable war is? My view is that it's to prevent arguments between two towering stacks of suppositions and theorycraft about far future events drowning out discussion of current events, in this, a current events thread. IMO I don't think possible offensives are clancychat as long as you provide even a drat smidgen of evidence thereof. People discussed the upcoming Kherson offensive a bunch late August, and Perun noted there was at least some evidence of a Kharkiv buildup noted by Russian warbloggers; but sadly, goons got taken by surprise just as hard as the 1st GTA. TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 15:02 on Sep 19, 2022 |
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Sep 19, 2022 14:58
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FishBulbia posted:Former SEAL Team Six Squadron Leader, NYT Best Selling Author, Conflict Correspondent, Husband, Dad, Hollywood Screenwriter and Epic Snowboarder. He sounds so dreamy. 
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Sep 19, 2022 15:03
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Alchenar posted:This is mostly to mock anyone who ever cited Michael Tracey approvingly, but he's currently doing a 'Actually US and British entry into WW2 was an escalation that forced Hitler to do a genocide' LMFAO I've only been off Twitter for about six months and Tracey has already gone from "complete idiot almost everyone laughs at" to "some species of eusocial animals have more intelligence".
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Sep 19, 2022 15:13
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:My view is that it's to prevent arguments between two towering stacks of suppositions and theorycraft about far future events drowning out discussion of current events, in this, a current events thread.
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Sep 19, 2022 15:26
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Eric Cantonese posted:From the responses, it sounds like you always need to take this guy's tweets with a big grain of salt. It would be nice if Ukraine keeps advancing, though. This guy is very often full of poo poo, and very loudly to boot. Same for that Michael MacKay guy who sometimes gets posted here. With him I’m not even convinced he’s mentally stable.
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Sep 19, 2022 15:36
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ZombieLenin posted:I’ve got very, very little patience for that sort of holocaust denialism/blame shifting bullshit. Please point out the specific sentences doing that.
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Sep 19, 2022 15:38
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Germany being helpful: https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1571871164280016903 (. . I guess they just have a hangup on IFVs and tanks?)
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Sep 19, 2022 15:46
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I'd also like to remind that this is a current affairs thread. If you want to discuss something long past, or not very likely to happen reasonably soon, you better have a good reason to do so. “I am bored” is an example to the contrary – perhaps the worst of them all. The reason for the specific thread direction, much like, e.g., the rules prohibiting speculation about a nuclear war, WW3, and Clancychat, is to prevent frequently unfalsifiable theorycrafting and relitigation of historical pet peeves. There also seems to be more confusion than I would expect to be on what I consider Clancychat. To me, Clancychat is any conversation on military particulars that is removed from the currently observed events by either a significant passage of time, or a lengthy chain of assumptions. What counts as current, significant, or lengthy here I leave to my discretion on an individual basis.
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Sep 19, 2022 15:52
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I was confused why this is happening all week while the front across from Bakhmut is collapsing: https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1571702341933350914 Attacking a strong point seems like a bad use of resources desperately needed a relatively short distance away. Plus with Izium lost and Lyman in danger of being flanked, even if they could take it there is little point in creating a salient into the Ukrainian lines that would then have to be defended. Why not move those forces over to block the Ukrainian advance into their flanks? https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1571847843882700800 ooof.
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Sep 19, 2022 15:53
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https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1571861895941918725
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Sep 19, 2022 15:58
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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1571884155788484612 Alas
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Sep 19, 2022 16:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Please point out the specific sentences doing that. It was a reference to Michael Tracey, I have no idea what the poster I responded to really meant, but it had the air of saying, “well actually post Wansee camps were much worse,” which could be read as support for Michael Tracey’s position; however, let me make this clear… That comment you are quoting was not directed at the poster, but directed at Michael Tracey’s “you see the United States caused the holocaust by going to war with Germany.” I thought that was obvious, if it wasn’t my apologies. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Sep 19, 2022 |
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Sep 19, 2022 17:04
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OddObserver posted:Germany being helpful: I wonder if it's a fear of their modern equipment being captured. Artillery (especially self propelled) sits far behind the lines, and Russia's not been able to make any rapid progress that would put them in jeopardy of falling into Russian hands. Whereas armor directly on the front, well, we have seen Russia able to capture a few Ukrainian tanks/apcs. Mind you I don't think there's any genuine secrets encased within the Leopard II (If there were it'd be posted to the warthunder forums by now anyways lol), but it could make germany "look bad" to see a Leopard being pulled by a Russian T-80. [FakeEdit] Right as I'm about to hit POST, it occurs to me that this could be Germany's "Escalation red line" and they've let Russia know. "If you escalate, we start handing over Marders and Leopards".
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Sep 19, 2022 17:06
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ZombieLenin posted:It was a reference to Michael Tracey, I have no idea what the poster I responded to really meant, but it had the air of saying, “well actually post Wansee camps were much worse,” which could be read as support for Michael Tracey’s position; however, let me make this clear… I see. Yeah, I couldn’t clearly tell myself your post wasn’t pointed at Rust’s, but it’s all good. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Sep 19, 2022 |
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Sep 19, 2022 17:08
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Doccers posted:I wonder if it's a fear of their modern equipment being captured. I think it's more that there's a general feeling among Western suppliers that what Ukraine has now is enough to beat the Russians. They just need to supply more of what's already there. They seem to have decided that upgrading to full NATO gear can wait until after the war is done when it can be accomplished at a more leisurely pace.
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Sep 19, 2022 17:10
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Deteriorata posted:I think it's more that there's a general feeling among Western suppliers that what Ukraine has now is enough to beat the Russians. They just need to supply more of what's already there. This would be a more reasonable explanation if Germany hadn't been denying transfers when the outcome was in doubt.
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Sep 19, 2022 17:18
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Doccers posted:I wonder if it's a fear of their modern equipment being captured. Germany is still involved in "Ringtausch"-attempts. Latest news was that the Marders are finally going to... some other NATO-country, which then supplies BMP-1s to Ukraine. A similar thing allowed the Czech Republic to supply Ukraine with more of their own heavy metal. I was reminded of this when a random news article claimed the Czechs were miffed because we were so slow in our promised NATO-gear delivery. Apparently they only recently got their first batch of replacements for poo poo they've been supplying Ukraine with for months now,  Ringtausch is a good deal for everyone involved: Tiny countries like the Czech Republic can pretend they're sending lots of gear while "secretly" getting modern replacements, and Germany can still pretend to be super-peaceful mega-pacifists. Everyone except Russia wins.  Also it's too late for Germany to "look bad" because of Leopard IIs making GBS threads it, Turkey did that already when their Export-Leos got into trouble in Syria. Honestly, we should send more Gepards. I was skeptical at first, but apparently the Ukrainians have put them to good use, e.g. there was a tweet in this very thread claiming Gepards were used in Ukrainian spearheads in their big offensive to scare off Russian airpower (and shoot down drones, I suppose).
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Sep 19, 2022 17:22
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Morrow posted:This would be a more reasonable explanation if Germany hadn't been denying transfers when the outcome was in doubt. I was under the assumption that Germany is in the middle of revitalizing their armed forces; like at one point most of their Air Force was grounded for maintenance issues. It might just be that they don't/didn't really have much to send that's fully up and running - and early on in the conflict they'd be focused on protecting themselves or other NATO members on the eastern borders. Edit: Also this -> Libluini posted:Ringtausch is a good deal for everyone involved: Tiny countries like the Czech Republic can pretend they're sending lots of gear while "secretly" getting modern replacements, and Germany can still pretend to be super-peaceful mega-pacifists. Everyone except Russia wins.
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Sep 19, 2022 17:24
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BadOptics posted:I was under the assumption that Germany is in the middle of revitalizing their armed forces; like at one point most of their Air Force was grounded for maintenance issues. It might just be that they don't/didn't really have much to send that's fully up and running - and early on in the conflict they'd be focused on protecting themselves or other NATO members on the eastern borders. Our entire air force is a bit much, but at one point we were down to 2 working helicopters. And no, I didn't forget to add a zero there. 
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Sep 19, 2022 17:25
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saratoga posted:I was confused why this is happening all week while the front across from Bakhmut is collapsing: I forgot to add this in my last post, but loving , this poo poo was a solved issue in the loving 30-Years-War. "Do not use too large mercenary forces and do not give them too much command and control power" are lessons the world has known for nearly 400 years now.But I guess sometimes you only learn the hard way, poor Russia.
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Sep 19, 2022 17:28
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saratoga posted:I was confused why this is happening all week while the front across from Bakhmut is collapsing: Why is it so hard for Russia to appointment a supreme commander for the entire northern front/the zoo of different militaries? I understand that everyone prefers to run their own little fiefdom, but surely Putin can just force them to? Why do the gangster republics even have independent command at all?
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Sep 19, 2022 18:05
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Libluini posted:Our entire air force is a bit much, but at one point we were down to 2 working helicopters. And no, I didn't forget to add a zero there. Germany is lucky this isn't the 1800s. It sounds like Belgium alone could have conquered the North German plain if they had wanted. 
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Sep 19, 2022 18:10
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GABA ghoul posted:Why is it so hard for Russia to appointment a supreme commander for the entire northern front/the zoo of different militaries? I understand that everyone prefers to run their own little fiefdom, but surely Putin can just force them to? Why do the gangster republics even have independent command at all?
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Sep 19, 2022 18:18
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GABA ghoul posted:Why is it so hard for Russia to appointment a supreme commander for the entire northern front/the zoo of different militaries? I understand that everyone prefers to run their own little fiefdom, but surely Putin can just force them to? Why do the gangster republics even have independent command at all? they probably don't have the resources to build one, have you seen how huge those things are???
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Sep 19, 2022 18:19
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GABA ghoul posted:Why is it so hard for Russia to appointment a supreme commander for the entire northern front/the zoo of different militaries? I understand that everyone prefers to run their own little fiefdom, but surely Putin can just force them to? Why do the gangster republics even have independent command at all? Because consolidating that much power in one pair of hands would create a potential threat or at least an obstacle to Putin's authority, especially if it actually worked.
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Sep 19, 2022 18:21
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the holy poopacy posted:Because consolidating that much power in one pair of hands would create a potential threat or at least an obstacle to Putin's authority, especially if it actually worked. Yeah, it's worth remembering Putin's been systematically killing off all the generals who were successful in Chechnya, to remove potential enemies. That should illustrate his relationship with and view of the military quite nicely.
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Sep 19, 2022 18:24
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Zhukov himself was stripped of most responsibility and kept in the backwaters due to Stalin fearing his popularity. Putin is just preempting this by preventing the very possibility of a successful general.
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Sep 19, 2022 18:44
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steinrokkan posted:Yeah, it's worth remembering Putin's been systematically killing off all the generals who were successful in Chechnya, to remove potential enemies. That should illustrate his relationship with and view of the military quite nicely. More relevant example - Donbas warlords of 2014 were frequently “involved” in a totally accidental chain of mystery explosions and weapons accidents.
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Sep 19, 2022 18:47
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Libluini posted:they probably don't have the resources to build one, have you seen how huge those things are??? 
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Sep 19, 2022 18:58
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