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Humbug Scoolbus
Apr 25, 2008

The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.
Clapping Larry

madeintaipei posted:

Man, I wish all secret societies had twelve foot tall signs on the road into their headquarters, in front of their headquarters, and (I assume) inside their headquarters.

"Welcome to COBRANEST!!!, home of COBRA!!! (Mon-Fri deliveries, turn right at McDonalds)"

'

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honda whisperer
Mar 29, 2009

Marshal Prolapse posted:

anime pillow Kim Philby

I lolled. God tier username right there.

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012
Am I too late for clancychat?

Philonius posted:

The problem is there's really no such thing as a 'limited strike'. I don't think there are many military targets for such a strike, given the fact that they're fighting on a 1000 mile frontline. It's not like there's a major airbase where Ukraine has a few hundred planes stationed. Neither do they have 20 tank divisions streaming through a weakpoint anywhere.

So the only nuclear attack that would be damaging enough to Ukraine (like nuking Kyiv) would simultaneously be monstrous enough to demand some sort of response from the west.

Annexation then a tactical weapon gets employed on the Kinburn Spit: not militarily significant, not under threat, not highly populated, within what Russia claims are its borders, and in Russia's current media narrative UKR forces are actively trying to take it. Putin gets to use nuclear intimidation in a situation which can be explained to his polity, in his mind the West won't respond as the West knows that no-one's been turned into a shadow, but the West and UKR will be intimidated into letting him have the world. End of wild speculation - I agree with the thread that threats about breaking the nuclear taboo being a long way from actually doing it.

Cimber posted:

Ok, if I may can I invite some theorycrafting for a moment? Lets say that in a few months Ukraine has driven Russia out of all the territories in the east including the Donbas region. Do they then push on towards Crimea and try to retake that as well? Do they call it victory? How is Russia going to respond to this, endless shelling of border territories for the next few years? Occasional pushes from various directions and the war turns into a long, bloody stalemate?

The only way I can see Ukraine having actual peace in such a situation would be for Putin to actually be out of office and the next guy (who's likely to be just as terrible as he is) trying to renormalize relations with Ukraine and the west to get under those crippling sanctions.

Putin doesn't survive Crimea being re-taken and the military circumstances in which that happens, no matter who takes the keys off his corpse, do not really support the incoming regime doing anything but suing for peace on the 2013 borders.

I maintain that if the war goes on it finishes with the RAF in open mutiny, retreating just as fast as they can. Probably planting quite a few blocking units in Ukrainian soil on the way. Under- and un- trained units being rapidly stood up out of unwilling conscripts and deployed (de jure, it's Russian territory on the 24th and so Putin can use conscripts there) makes this more, not less, likely.

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

I'll point out again, even a 'limited' exchange of nukes will kill billions. Nuclear winter has been shown to be significantly worse than anyone ever imagined during the cold war. The people with nukes presumably know this.

There is no option for clancy-esque small use scenarios any more.

No? Nuclear winter's not really a thing since CEPs went down and you no longer needed massive yields resulting in stratospheric injection to achieve effective treatment of the target. Happy to read any source on the topic, though.

Mirconium posted:

I think a question that's not being asked is, "what is Ukraine going to do about being nuked?"

Ukraine has non-trivial nuclear industry itself, several reactors, and most likely fuel they could refine. Even if NATO is not interested in nuclear reprisals, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Ukraine would be. And given that we are 7 months into an existential war, they may well have already had these conversations internally.

If the UAF had nuclear weapons sitting on delivery systems (they don't), they'd probably adopt strategic patience WRT a Russian first strike. If the free world suddenly becomes Very Involved (which I think they would), that's more beneficial to restoring UA territorial integrity than a limited atomic counterstrike.

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


Full clancychat would involve a Russian first strike, fallout drifting over Europe, then a group of pissed off Polish commandos stationed in Turkey take it upon themselves to grab a few devices from the NATO/US bunkers at Incirlik, and pull a reverse Sum of All Fears.

Uncle Enzo
Apr 28, 2008

I always wanted to be a Wizard

Arrath posted:

pull a reverse Sum of All Fears.

Difference of No Confidences?

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Hyrax Attack! posted:

I know the info isn’t available but would be fascinating to know how barebones every non-Ukraine war Russian deployment is at the moment, especially if it’s true they are sending nuke missile specialists in as infantry. Wonder if they’ve considered docking navy ships and having crews redeploy as infantry.

There was an PoW interview of a seaman first class out of the Baltic Fleet who trained for a week to drive a tank and then got sent to Ukraine.

A.o.D. posted:

It is the year of our Lord 2022. I have just read a fascist propaganda piece that included the bullet item of land reform. My brain is dribbling out of my nose.

Wasn't turning half of (Greater) Germany into smallholding farmers pretty high up in Nazi agenda? They felt that it would provide both a racially pure reservoir population, and a solid long-term political support base. Not that they ever did anything towards that goal, but point being, land reform in fascist agenda is not a new thing.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Arrath posted:

Full clancychat would involve a Russian first strike, fallout drifting over Europe, then a group of pissed off Polish commandos stationed in Turkey take it upon themselves to grab a few devices from the NATO/US bunkers at Incirlik, and pull a reverse Sum of All Fears.

Clancy knew about PALs. That's why the plot of Sum of All Fears included making a bomb from a bomb.

Steezo
Jun 16, 2003
Now go away, or I shall taunt you a second time!


Marshal Prolapse posted:

Not sure, I actually thought it was a fuel air bomb originally.

:lol: He gets to be anime pillow Kim Philby for the rest of his life in Russia.

I’m just happy that many people are finally realizing him and Glenn Greenwald were in fact pieces of poo poo and not heroes of liberal democratic values.

I used to get shouted down, in this very forum, for suggesting he was a piece of poo poo, who acted like a piece of poo poo when he didn't get the cushy assignment he though he deserved. You know, like the congressional report on him said. He's just another Pollard who didn't get what he wanted instantly and then committed treason.

Hope he falls down some stairs.

Bell_
Sep 3, 2006

Tiny Baltimore
A billion light years away
A goon's posting the same thing
But he's already turned to dust
And the shitpost we read
Is a billion light-years old
A ghost just like the rest of us

BadOptics posted:

True that it's lovely but humans tend to not care or keep their heads down about things that don't effect them personally (see Iraq as well as the 20 years in Afghanistan).
Hell, look at the boomers once they no longer had to worry about being drafted for the Vietnam War.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

I still have no idea why anyone at all even talks about Glenn Greenwald. He hasn't contributed anything of substance for nearly 20 years.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Tiny Timbs posted:

I still have no idea why anyone at all even talks about Glenn Greenwald. He hasn't contributed anything of substance for nearly 20 years.

Same reason Fox News exists. He tells people what they want to hear, and says it with authority so they can pretend it's true.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

Steezo posted:

I used to get shouted down, in this very forum, for suggesting he was a piece of poo poo, who acted like a piece of poo poo when he didn't get the cushy assignment he though he deserved. You know, like the congressional report on him said. He's just another Pollard who didn't get what he wanted instantly and then committed treason.

Hope he falls down some stairs.

https://twitter.com/genchuckyeager/status/767208899095191552?s=46&t=2L7i-scdLZogmj-HuXze8g

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Tuna-Fish posted:

Wasn't turning half of (Greater) Germany into smallholding farmers pretty high up in Nazi agenda? They felt that it would provide both a racially pure reservoir population, and a solid long-term political support base. Not that they ever did anything towards that goal, but point being, land reform in fascist agenda is not a new thing.

Yeah, was just about to post this. Not only were farmers a major political bloc (1930's Germany wasn't quite as industrialized as people tend to think of it as), the Nazis had a whole ideological thing about the moral purity and value of the German smallholding farmer, not just because they were racially pure but because working the land was considered to be more upright and built more character than degenerate city-dwellers infected by Jewish thinking and horrors like jazz. And one of the big things smallholding farmers in 1930s Germany were complaining about was that Junkers were hogging all the land and leaving barely enough for smallholders to live on, so...yeah, land reform was a big item on the agenda.

In theory, anyways. There were some efforts made towards it (there was one big weird drive the details of which I'd have to look up that would have made "peasants" a privileged and protected hereditary position but which would have tied them and their heirs forever to the land - never quite proved as popular as they hoped) but the war kinda put things on hold for obvious reasons.

Edit: Also there's the whole thing about it being stark raving economic insanity that the more practical members of the government were actively trying to hinder.

Tomn fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Sep 22, 2022

joat mon
Oct 15, 2009

I am the master of my lamp;
I am the captain of my tub.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_and_soil

LightRailTycoon
Mar 24, 2017

Uncle Enzo posted:

Difference of No Confidences?
Count Distinct of Hope

pygmy tyrant
Nov 25, 2005

*not a small business owner

I like that nationalizing big tech and dismantling big tech both got bullets.

Morbidly curious what the reasoning for subsidizing community gyms is.

cult_hero
Jul 10, 2001

pygmy tyrant posted:


Morbidly curious what the reasoning for subsidizing community gyms is.

How else are we gonna get to ultra gay space communism?

What, like open a disco? How decadent.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

pygmy tyrant posted:

I like that nationalizing big tech and dismantling big tech both got bullets.

Morbidly curious what the reasoning for subsidizing community gyms is.

It's probably a cross-fit thing.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

Soul Dentist posted:

Looks like he's about the right age to move to Brazil and marry a homeless teenager from the favella

I've never seen Greenwald so mad online as when Luke O'Neil poked fun at his "child bride"

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
Gravity's reign of terror continues throughout Russia.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-717751

quote:

Adviser to the rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Anatoly Gerashchenko, died after falling from a height at the institute on Wednesday, according to Russian reports.

Gerashchenko served as the rector of the institute from 2007-2015.

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

GD_American posted:

Gravity's reign of terror continues throughout Russia.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-717751



They were first to get into space and gravity has been taking its vengeance ever since.

RoyKeen
Jul 24, 2007

Grimey Drawer
Pardon my ignorance but what's the deal/point of these purges via defenestration?
Is there a common way that they're viewed as a threat to Putin (who I'm assuming is behind all this but if not see the first three words of my post).

RoyKeen fucked around with this message at 13:29 on Sep 22, 2022

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012

The Imp of Nipples posted:

Pardon my ignorance but what's the deal/point of these purges via defenestration?
Is there a common way that they're viewed as a threat Putin (who I'm assuming is behind all this but if not see the first three words of my post).

I'd speculate that he's a "Great Man" making significant blunders and concerned about someone else having a go at the wheel. Anyone in a position of power who looks capable of running so much as a bath needs to go.

Philonius
Jun 12, 2005

It's not necesarily all happening on Putin's direct orders. From everything I've read, Russia is a maffia state from top to bottom. Might just be some lower level infighting, people settling scores while the boss is distracted.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Haven't seen it mentioned in here yet. There was a large prisoner exchange, brokered by the Saudis, that just took place.

Specifically, this piece of poo poo was handed over to the Russians (along with 55 other prisoners) in exchange for 200 captured Mauripol fighters:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-zelenskiy-says

And the captured American and British fighters who were "sentenced to death" were exchanged, along with a bunch of other westerners.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08f4c4bf5d805b

Reminder that Aiden Aslin was married to a Ukrainian and joined the military years before Russia invaded.

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006

Marshal Prolapse posted:

He did quickly stop tweeting for a long time after the invasion.

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1498049577131208705

I mean, the guy did admit he was wrong (he was adamant Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine). I have considerably more sympathy for him than most here - the crap he exposed absolutely needed to be exposed and it's not like he chose to establish his supervillain lair in Russia, Assange hosed up his flight out of China and he literally got trapped in a Moscow airport en route to South America.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

psydude posted:

Haven't seen it mentioned in here yet. There was a large prisoner exchange, brokered by the Saudis, that just took place.

Specifically, this piece of poo poo was handed over to the Russians (along with 55 other prisoners) in exchange for 200 captured Mauripol fighters:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-zelenskiy-says

And the captured American and British fighters who were "sentenced to death" were exchanged, along with a bunch of other westerners.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08f4c4bf5d805b

Reminder that Aiden Aslin was married to a Ukrainian and joined the military years before Russia invaded.

lmao this medvechuk must be important (he's going to die in russia of bad blood)

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Lum_ posted:

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1498049577131208705

I mean, the guy did admit he was wrong (he was adamant Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine). I have considerably more sympathy for him than most here - the crap he exposed absolutely needed to be exposed and it's not like he chose to establish his supervillain lair in Russia, Assange hosed up his flight out of China and he literally got trapped in a Moscow airport en route to South America.

It boggles the mind that people use this like it's some kind of defense. So the guy's stated purpose for leaking state secrets was to expose the government violating the rights of people. Hey, that's reasonable. But then he tried to flee prosecution and elects to stay put in a country run by a government that is infinitely worse than the United States when it comes to aforementioned violation of rights. To be clear - he could have always just faced up to the charges, become a martyr at trial, and by now he would have probably been released from prison. The fact that he's stuck around in Russia completely undermines his credibility; the guy is either a narcissist masquerading as a libertarian, or he's a spy.

psydude fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Sep 22, 2022

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

Lum_ posted:

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1498049577131208705

I mean, the guy did admit he was wrong (he was adamant Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine). I have considerably more sympathy for him than most here - the crap he exposed absolutely needed to be exposed and it's not like he chose to establish his supervillain lair in Russia, Assange hosed up his flight out of China and he literally got trapped in a Moscow airport en route to South America.

Is this critical thinking? On the somethingawful.com forums?!

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

psydude posted:

It boggles the mind that people use this like it's some kind of defense. So the guy's stated purpose for leaking state secrets was to expose the government violating the rights of people. Hey, that's reasonable. But then he tried to flee prosecution and elects to stay put in a country run by a government that is infinitely worse than the United States when it comes to aforementioned violation of rights. To be clear - he could have always just faced up to the charges, become a martyr at trial, and by now he would have probably been released from prison. The fact that he's stuck around in Russia completely undermines his credibility; the guy is either a narcissist masquerading as a libertarian, or he's a spy.

Yeah, what a loving coward for not spending probably two decades in solitary like Manning (and Manning got lucky on getting out as early as she did). As we all know US prisons are even more luxurious than Scandinavian ones.

Edit: this is like some "why don't minorities trust the cops! They always treat *me* so nicely!" Also completely erases how rabidly the Obama administration persecuted whistleblowers.

BadOptics fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Sep 22, 2022

Baconroll
Feb 6, 2009

IPCRESS posted:

I'd speculate that he's a "Great Man" making significant blunders and concerned about someone else having a go at the wheel. Anyone in a position of power who looks capable of running so much as a bath needs to go.

During the Iran/Iraq war Saddam had the habit of killing any of his generals that were both charismatic and successful - Far too dangerous to him.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

BadOptics posted:

Edit: this is like some "why don't minorities trust the cops! They always treat *me* so nicely!" Also completely erases how rabidly the Obama administration persecuted whistleblowers.

Yeah man all those times I intentionally leaked classified information and then fled to authoritarian regimes to avoid prosecution.

e: I just wanna highlight the fact that you unironically posted this in defense of a guy who's shilling for a country that's literally sending their own prisoners to die in an unprovoked war they're waging on their neighbor.

e2: VVV Cheers to that.

psydude fucked around with this message at 14:27 on Sep 22, 2022

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006

psydude posted:

It boggles the mind that people use this like it's some kind of defense. So the guy's stated purpose for leaking state secrets was to expose the government violating the rights of people. Hey, that's reasonable. But then he tried to flee prosecution and elects to stay put in a country run by a government that is infinitely worse than the United States when it comes to aforementioned violation of rights. To be clear - he could have always just faced up to the charges, become a martyr at trial, and by now he would have probably been released from prison. The fact that he's stuck around in Russia completely undermines his credibility; the guy is either a narcissist masquerading as a libertarian, or he's a spy.

I don't fault the guy for not wanting to be stuck in Florence ADX solitary for a decade or more, but I'm not going to defend him to the death either. At least we can all come together to hate Grenn Greenwald.

Soylent Pudding
Jun 22, 2007

We've got people!


https://gizmodo.com/edward-snowden-is-a-loving-idiot-1789039598

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 4 days!)

BadOptics posted:

Manning got lucky on getting out as early as he did

Excuse me?

Lum_
Jun 5, 2006
meanwhile back in news from this decade, apparently that partial mobilization is really microtargeting service veterans

https://twitter.com/dasha_reports/status/1572929082014277633

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

psydude posted:

Yeah man all those times I intentionally leaked classified information and then fled to authoritarian regimes to avoid prosecution.

e: I just wanna highlight the fact that you unironically posted this in defense of a guy who's shilling for a country that's literally sending their own prisoners to die in an unprovoked war they're waging on their neighbor.

I don't know how someone could explain any clearer that his plan wasn't to end up in Russia because it's such a bastion of freedom nor does that make it "posting in defense" of his current actions by explaining historical facts about what occurred. Obviously his recent poo poo is a craven opportunity to ingratiate himself with the people who could easily use him as a bargaining chip in hostage exchanges.

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012


gently caress, sorry she. Will correct.

Lum_ posted:

I don't fault the guy for not wanting to be stuck in Florence ADX solitary for a decade or more, but I'm not going to defend him to the death either.

Yeah, I don't know where explaining his motivations/actions that happened over a decade ago now = I fully support everything Snowden tweets out past or present.

Lum_ posted:

At least we can all come together to hate Grenn Greenwald.

Amen to that.

BadOptics fucked around with this message at 14:38 on Sep 22, 2022

BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

Edit: Sorry double/triple post.

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Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

BadOptics posted:

I don't know how someone could explain any clearer that his plan wasn't to end up in Russia because it's such a bastion of freedom nor does that make it "posting in defense" of his current actions by explaining historical facts about what occurred. Obviously his recent poo poo is a craven opportunity to ingratiate himself with the people who could easily use him as a bargaining chip in hostage exchanges.

Well as the old saying goes, gently caress around and find out.

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