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Paladinus posted:Turns out the leak was fake. Looks like a fragment of the Yandex delivery service leak from some time ago. You can even find multiple entries with same names and passports, but with different addresses there. That last bit could very well be true of a real database.
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Sep 22, 2022 18:50
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Youth Decay posted:The Downfall parodies from this are going to be incredible. If true it is likely the same reason dictators throughout history have done so - narcissism. They see it as the ultimate accomplishment to be a general moving pieces and winning great victories (war and combat are always the default areas to prove your worth to the unimaginative, immature and unskilled, acheiving and building things is hard but destroying and killing is easy) and they do not doubt their own ability above that of people with far more experience and training.
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Sep 22, 2022 18:52
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1572990130108915712 wild if true, but that's probably an old clip directed at someone else
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Sep 22, 2022 18:54
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Youth Decay posted:The Downfall parodies from this are going to be incredible. Honestly I don’t know that it’s necessary to go to conspiracy theories - when something goes catastrophically wrong, most leaders would be very tempted to step in to try and “fix” it themselves with personal attention on the basis that the guys currently running things clearly don’t know what they’re doing and anyways you’re the boss so it’s your responsibility if it all goes wrong and/or you know better else why are you the boss? It takes a degree of self-discipline, trust in your judgment of character, and trust in your subordinates to hold back from meddling. Putin might actually be justified in suspecting that his generals don’t know what they’re doing, mind you, but he’s the one who picked them after all, and it’s not like he necessarily knows any better…
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Sep 22, 2022 18:56
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Youth Decay posted:The Downfall parodies from this are going to be incredible. I've seen bad business leaders do this, too. They imagine that their direct reports somehow are failing to convey their brilliant strategies to the people who can get things done, so they reach down to intervene directly. Anything to avoid confronting the reality that their strategies are the problem.
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Sep 22, 2022 18:58
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Youth Decay posted:The Downfall parodies from this are going to be incredible. Possibly not even believing sabotaging, could just believe they're lazy/incompetent. On the draft. Feel like how vague they left the details it is probably going to back fire. Possibly the needed to do it just to make it work, but leaving that sort of uncertainty in the air about something as serious as going to war and having a not exactly low chance of dying, that is going to create massive anxiety and stress in a large percentage of the population of the country. Probably something you don't want while running a very publicly losing war. Obviously it's to early to tell how this will turn out, but it is legitimately hard to see anyway this will turn out well for Russia. Like even the absolutely best case scenarios for them are pretty garbage.
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Sep 22, 2022 18:59
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Read the WaPo article linked by Hestory earlier - it's quite interesting inded. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/quote:There are records that add to the mystery of Russian miscalculations. Extensive polls conducted for the FSB show that large segments of Ukraine’s population were prepared to resist Russian encroachment, and that any expectation that Russian forces would be greeted as liberators was unfounded. Even so, officials said, the FSB continued to feed the Kremlin rosy assessments that Ukraine’s masses would welcome the arrival of Russia’s military and the restoration of Moscow-friendly rule.
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Sep 22, 2022 19:00
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The X-man cometh posted:Bush and Cheney knew Afghanistan was hopeless early in but refused to admit defeat , and Afghanistan has even less value than Ukraine. Obama also refused to lose face and leave so thousands more Americans died. Bush and Obama also have the democracy advantage --- they can retire and paint/give overpriced talks, and someone else has to deal with the mess.
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Sep 22, 2022 19:04
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Flavahbeast posted:wild if true, but that's probably an old clip directed at someone else Probably correct as the tweet has since been deleted
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Sep 22, 2022 19:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Read the WaPo article linked by Hestory earlier - it's quite interesting inded. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/  Clearly some people knew, but either weren't allowed into positions where they could explain this, or were ignored: quote:To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
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Sep 22, 2022 19:07
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HonorableTB posted:I scanned through the list - there are thousands upon thousands of identical, duplicate names. I am pretty sure there are not 17 Andrey Khapsasovs in Sankt-Peterburg all with a birthdate of 17.3.1991 with identical addresses. This duplication is rife throughout the list 17 men named Andrey Khapsasov, all the same age, all living in the same house is my idea of what Russian reality TV is like. William Bear fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 19:25
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Putin's trajectory is only irrational to posters ITT projecting their own interests, past and situations. It is not so crazy if you get in his size 9s. He had some kind of unhappy past, found success with violence and worked his way up from there, always worried the next guy above him was going to poo poo on him, and revelling in doing the same to others. He correctly believes (in the scope of his experience) that life is precarious, the ability to destroy is power, and unpredictable aggression is necessary for security. This is 1000% true from his view at the top of one of the biggest mafias in the world. At some point he read a history book and the conquerors seemed cool. It is at least true that the assholes get to draw the borders and decide which little people get to live or die. This is true regardless of if the assholes are self-made or just riding a wave of public sentiment. We want to believe that his current position is vulnerable, but the guy has made a good portion of the world his enemy and is still mostly untouchable. Conversely, he would wonder how we can cope with the fear of being victimized in our low status. Even a beat cop could pick on most of us with impunity. Even if he does end up in the back of a pickup, he would probably still believe the struggle was worth it. Anything is preferable to being anxious at the mercy of others. Even here tags say "only trust your fists". With the same genes and formative experiences all of us would be doing the same things, and it would seem just as logical to us. Even if Putin does understand on some level that altruistic harmony is possible, he still wouldn't believe that he personally gets to enjoy it. The human Federation is utopian but the Klingon and Romulan empires are not. Morals go out the window real fast when your security is threatened. E. Not saying that NATO threatened him, but just the possibility that it might was frightening enough. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Preen Dog fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 19:43
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OddObserver posted:That last bit could very well be true of a real database. There's also that many people who got mobilised are not in that database.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:07
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I'm wondering how much longer Shoigu can remain Defense Minister with things going the way they are. Putin is alreadby bypassing the MoD and issuing orders directly to commanders - what's Shoigu's purpose anymore? He clearly isn't doing anything beneficial (for Russia...he's quite beneficial to Ukraine on the flip side), and if Putin's taking charge personally anyway, you'd think he'd get rid of Shoigu in favor of someone publically less of an incompetent buffoon
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Sep 22, 2022 20:16
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Paladinus posted:There's also that many people who got mobilised are not in that database. Yeah, it seems pretty fake - it really doesn't matter though, this list will have been faked in order to scare people about the scale of the mobilisation, but the reality of mobilisation is far more scary. It's a "limited mobilisation" that's acting like full mobilisation until they've grabbed enough people off the streets to meet the quota. Assuming they stop at that point. Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 20:16
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HonorableTB posted:I'm wondering how much longer Shoigu can remain Defense Minister with things going the way they are. Putin is alreadby bypassing the MoD and issuing orders directly to commanders - what's Shoigu's purpose anymore? He clearly isn't doing anything beneficial (for Russia...he's quite beneficial to Ukraine on the flip side), and if Putin's taking charge personally anyway, you'd think he'd get rid of Shoigu in favor of someone publically less of an incompetent buffoon Shoigu's incompetence is a feature, not a bug. A competent defense minister could rival Putin.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:19
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Why not call it a war now? When you’re pressing hundreds of thousands if not a million into service why continue to try and straddle some idiotic line?
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Sep 22, 2022 20:23
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HonorableTB posted:I'm wondering how much longer Shoigu can remain Defense Minister with things going the way they are. Putin is alreadby bypassing the MoD and issuing orders directly to commanders - what's Shoigu's purpose anymore? He clearly isn't doing anything beneficial (for Russia...he's quite beneficial to Ukraine on the flip side), and if Putin's taking charge personally anyway, you'd think he'd get rid of Shoigu in favor of someone publically less of an incompetent buffoon Shoigu is already going to be the fall guy, and if you are already bypassing him anyways, you may as well leave him there. Other options: - There is no one suitable for replacement. - There is someone suitable, but he is TOO qualified for the job in that they would be a risk to Putin. - There is no one willing to be the replacement. (seems unlikely tbh) - If the top guy keeps changing the horse and each horse keeps losing, it becomes difficult to blame all the horses. If every general in the Russian military is equally incompetent, then that falls squarely on Putin.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:26
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So Putin has insulated himself from being challenged by eliminating anyone even vaguely competent from the chain of command, but Putin is also grossly under-informed and has zero experience in managing battlefield tactics. I'm sure he will be a supremely successful military strategist, despite his entire lack of knowledge or experience. How hard can it be?
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Sep 22, 2022 20:27
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Crow Buddy posted:Shoigu is already going to be the fall guy, and if you are already bypassing him anyways, you may as well leave him there. Being an autocrat must be such an exhausting experience. The stress of being a dictator doesn't seem worth it, but then again, I guess that's why I'm not an autocratic dictator mobilizing a million people after starting a war of aggression against a neighbor
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Sep 22, 2022 20:29
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HonorableTB posted:Being an autocrat must be such an exhausting experience. The stress of being a dictator doesn't seem worth it, but then again, I guess that's why I'm not an autocratic dictator mobilizing a million people after starting a war of aggression against a neighbor The flipside here is that Putin's actual wealth, in terms of both direct and indirect holdings, is probably greater than anyone else on earth.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:33
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Zwabu posted:Why not call it a war now? When you’re pressing hundreds of thousands if not a million into service why continue to try and straddle some idiotic line? You can still just wrap up the "special operation", with a war you kind of invite dangerous questions like if it was won or lost
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Sep 22, 2022 20:35
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mobby_6kl posted:You can still just wrap up the "special operation", with a war you kind of invite dangerous questions like if it was won or lost Including annexing a third of your neighbor and calling it your own territory to defend? If you get driven out of land you made a big show out of calling your own, you can wrap that up without everyone including your own citizens knowing you lost?
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Sep 22, 2022 20:40
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Zwabu posted:Including annexing a third of your neighbor and calling it your own territory to defend? If you get driven out of land you made a big show out of calling your own, you can wrap that up without everyone including your own citizens knowing you lost? Well, Ukraine is denazified now - Azov officers are in Turkey. Mission complete! More seriously speaking, it remains a special military operation most assuredly for rhetorical reasons.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:42
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Discendo Vox posted:The flipside here is that Putin's actual wealth, in terms of both direct and indirect holdings, is probably greater than anyone else on earth. Sure, but there's a real good chance he gets coup'd in the near future, and there's 41 million people a few hours drive away that will shoot him on sight. I think I'd rather sit in my rental flat with 10 grand of student loans and not be human enemy #1.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:43
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Youth Decay posted:Seriously though, is this Putin believing conspiracy theories that some in his army are sabotaging the mission? Or just him wanting to feel the power of moving all the little chessmen himself.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 22, 2022 20:43
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When was the last time a major power declared an actual war? The U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan weren't technically declared wars.
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Sep 22, 2022 20:56
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As far as "how they will outfit all the recruits," there's one weird trick, quartermasters hate it! https://mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1572681274111963136 Self-provisioning!
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Sep 22, 2022 20:59
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Zwabu posted:Including annexing a third of your neighbor and calling it your own territory to defend? If you get driven out of land you made a big show out of calling your own, you can wrap that up without everyone including your own citizens knowing you lost? Well they haven't done the super-legit referendums yet so it's all cool 
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Sep 22, 2022 21:01
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We've been having some supply chain issues, so I expect each one of you guys to pull your weight and chip in. Ivan, you bring a camping stove, Volodya, you get a tent, Peter... Why don't you grab one of those Kirov class battle cruisers, hm?
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Sep 22, 2022 21:09
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Popete posted:When was the last time a major power declared an actual war? The U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan weren't technically declared wars. 1945. The formation of the UN ended the days where you could hand a note to another country saying 'we are legally at war now'. Wars obviously happen, but use of force is only legal as a result of a UNSC resolution or because of the innate right to self-defence, there's no legal right to declare war anymore so nobody does it.
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Sep 22, 2022 21:10
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Crow Buddy posted:Shoigu is already going to be the fall guy, and if you are already bypassing him anyways, you may as well leave him there. Yeah, it's hardly a coincidence that his address was worded this way: "More precisely I find it necessary to support the proposal of the Defense Ministry and the general staff on partial mobilization (...)" Seems like framing it this way was a very deliberate fig leaf/precaution to redirect blame if the mobilization doesn't change things in the field and/or turns into a political liability.
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Sep 22, 2022 21:12
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Popete posted:When was the last time a major power declared an actual war? The U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan weren't technically declared wars. There hasn't been much, period. Some of Israel's neighbors on Israel till '79, Iraq on Iran in '80, and a handful of even more minor powers.
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Sep 22, 2022 21:13
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Alchenar posted:1945. The formation of the UN ended the days where you could hand a note to another country saying 'we are legally at war now'. Iraq did declare war on Iran, that's probably the last major one
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Sep 22, 2022 21:14
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Popete posted:When was the last time a major power declared an actual war? The U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan weren't technically declared wars. Within the US, we also have legal problems where laws that we don't really want to deal with every day in the modern era suddenly get activated in a declared war. Quaint old-timey crimes during peacetime like treason or sedition are actually difficult to commit. You have to do something totally insane like bring together a massive armed mob, whip them up into violence, and send them off to do battle against the elected government in the capitol building or something similar before we can start to dust those things off, which only happens maybe once every 80 years or so. If we have declared enemy nation-states like we declared war on Russia, suddenly it is pretty easy (arguably) to commit these crimes. You kind of only want to do it if you are in Ukraine's position, you are in an existential fight to survive, and you really need a legal way to quickly and efficiently round up and jail literal traitors. If we are just going off and doing stupid poo poo in vietnam or the middle east, its kind of inconvenient to deal with having a declared war. Rigel fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 21:18
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Evidence of mobilization in Moscow https://twitter.com/jonnytickle/status/1573028376230641665?s=20&t=qt2xjBs7xbINuPqOZ33w8A This seems like an escalation
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Sep 22, 2022 21:22
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KitConstantine posted:Evidence of mobilization in Moscow How does this sort of thing work? Are Russians required to carry ID with them at all times that these officers demand to see before handing out a summons?
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Sep 22, 2022 21:28
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Orthanc6 posted:Sure, but there's a real good chance he gets coup'd in the near future, and there's 41 million people a few hours drive away that will shoot him on sight. I think I'd rather sit in my rental flat with 10 grand of student loans and not be human enemy #1. All I'm hearing here is a lack of initiative and sticktuitiveness. If you'd just show some gumption, you too could
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Sep 22, 2022 21:46
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That Judo poster should be replaced with a Steven Seagal film poster. BTW, whenever the Putin regime does collapse, I do wonder what'll happen to Seagal after all this? Chalks posted:How does this sort of thing work? Are Russians required to carry ID with them at all times that these officers demand to see before handing out a summons? I don't think they're bothering to check, they're probably handing them out to random passerbys like fare-jumping tickets that match the draft criteria. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 21:48
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Young Freud posted:I don't think they're bothering to check, they're probably handing them out to random passerbys like fare-jumping tickets that match the draft criteria. Am I missing something? Why wouldn't you just ignore it if they don't know who they're handing them to?
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Sep 22, 2022 21:50
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