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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1573682608411664390?s=20&t=rTmukyPHrE8aMZfOTu0UfQ This is the reality of this increasingly stagnant war. "All quiet on the front" -> 50 dead. With no end in sight.
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Sep 25, 2022 16:41
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it is beginning https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574059122399629313?s=20&t=Zdpt-aYkMNRXM7S6gjMENw
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Sep 25, 2022 16:55
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https://twitter.com/austinjdahmer/status/1569396251703103489?t=qLIcmGURPekK9Ze6H0v9PA&s=19 Here's some numbers what US production capacity for artillery shells looks like. I hope there's a plan what to do when GMLRS stockpiles run low, and Ukraine may no longer be able to suppress Russian ammo depots the way they're doing now.
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Sep 25, 2022 16:57
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FishBulbia posted:This is the reality of this increasingly stagnant war. "All quiet on the front" -> 50 dead. With no end in sight. There's been lots of movement in the last month. The war is not stagnant
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Sep 25, 2022 16:57
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Charlz Guybon posted:There's been lots of movement in the last month. The war is not stagnant And even on the fronts that do not move there is immense death constantly. Today may be a slow news day, but it never stops.
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Sep 25, 2022 16:59
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https://twitter.com/bneeditor/status/1574010324407173121 good precedent i guess
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Sep 25, 2022 17:05
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FishBulbia posted:And even on the fronts that do not move there is immense death constantly. Today may be a slow news day, but it never stops. The clusterfuck of Russian mobilization is dominating Twitter, but today is not a slow day. There is heavy fighting Ukraine pushes around lyman, which is nearly encircled and the Russians are fighting to relieve.
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Sep 25, 2022 17:09
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saratoga posted:The clusterfuck of Russian mobilization is dominating Twitter, but today is not a slow day. There is heavy fighting Ukraine pushes around lyman, which is nearly encircled and the Russians are fighting to relieve. The article was about the Kherson front though
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Sep 25, 2022 17:11
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FishBulbia posted:it is beginning Are you still trying to suggest this is a ‘stagnant’ war after the events of this last month, and what is still happening right now on the ground? Repeating things by rote does not make them true. This is not a stagnant war or a frozen conflict; that’s not to say it could not eventually become one, but it is prima facie not the case that it is one now.
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Sep 25, 2022 17:16
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ZombieLenin posted:Are you still trying to suggest this is a ‘stagnant’ war after the events of this last month, and what is still happening right now on the ground? I'm saying the mud season is starting
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Sep 25, 2022 17:23
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saratoga posted:The clusterfuck of Russian mobilization is dominating Twitter, but today is not a slow day. There is heavy fighting Ukraine pushes around lyman, which is nearly encircled and the Russians are fighting to relieve. We can go weeks without hearing about advances in the southern front but the artillery war carries on, this was the allusion I was making with the Remarque quote.
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Sep 25, 2022 17:26
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Dagestan was the most problematic region with implementing covid lockdowns so it is no surprise that another government interference into private lives (this time to kill them, not save) is facing resistance. Aligns with what most analysts described in that covid has shown cracks in Putin's social contract with population and mobilization is going to shatter it. Hopefully it spreads across the country and into federal center.
fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 17:37
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fatherboxx posted:Dagestan was the most problematic region with implementing covid lockdowns so it is no surprise that another government interference into private lives (this time to kill them, not save) is facing resistance. Aligns with what most analysts described in that covid has shown cracks in Putin's social contract with population and mobilization is going to shatter it. Hopefully it spreads across the country and into federal center. The mobilization of the African colonies during the world wars played a role in setting up independence movements. This will be a much faster version of that. Part of the reason I shy away from totalitarian comparisons for Putin is that totalitarian states are great at mobilizing, Putin is an extremely effective autocrat for his ability to demobilize. "Do what you want, as long is it doesn't overly affect me" is basically the persistent popular opinion in Russia. Standing up is not worth it when you can kinda just dissociate from reality. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 17:44
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FishBulbia posted:I'm saying the mud season is starting That doesn't make it a stagnant war. Ww2 eastern front also had pauses during the mud season, yet I don't believe anyone would consider it was ever stagnant. Also, the war can seem slow day by day, but jesus this massively successful counteroffensive literally just happened. Let's not be that myopic. Russia is still headed for disaster in the months to come. How warm coats and boots do you believe this Great Power(tm) can send to the front? What about winter tires for their trucks? Perhaps top-shelf one's from Shanghai?
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Sep 25, 2022 17:59
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Keisari posted:That doesn't make it a stagnant war. Ww2 eastern front also had pauses during the mud season, yet I don't believe anyone would consider it was ever stagnant. 2 unrelated statements and I'm just waxing about how immense death fades from the headlines as a state of war becomes normalized, the point of title "nothing new on the western front"
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Sep 25, 2022 18:02
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FishBulbia posted:We can go weeks without hearing about advances in the southern front but the artillery war carries on, this was the allusion I was making with the Remarque quote. The 50 dead per day is a result of more rapid advances around Kharkov, not the slow artillery war in Kherson.
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Sep 25, 2022 18:16
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saratoga posted:The 50 dead per day is a result of more rapid advances around Kharkov, not the slow artillery war in Kherson. The article we're talking about suggests there's a lot of losses around Kherson
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Sep 25, 2022 18:17
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FishBulbia posted:The mobilization of the African colonies during the world wars played a role in setting up independence movements. This will be a much faster version of that. That makes sense. In a totalitarian state people are oppressed and subdued until something, might, snap and you end up with a revolution or civil war. In the Russian version the majority of people are indifferent? disaffected? I've been wondering about it because there have been constant speculation of coups, uprisings, protests etc on social media first in response to the war, then to losses and defeats and then to mobilization. It just doesn't happen. Obviously what we see in Dagestan could grow and spiral but for the moment it's small scale localized events. Instead we have this sizable exodus of people that choose to leave rather than protest. Thing is we also don't see massive pro-war rallies. There has been accounts of public employees being bussed in and paid to wave flags at rallies which, if accurate, does not suggest the presence of a popular and engaged pro-war base.
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Sep 25, 2022 18:33
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Jake Sullivan confirms that the direct channels of communications between Russia and the US severed at the start of war have been reestablished, which all things being equal has to count as good news https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1574050861189419009?s=20&t=r5X4d9URgi0BA5hHFt-TEA The specific contents of these conversations are kept confidential because no one wants a game of public rhetorical one-upmanship that could escalate things https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1574032584262418432?s=20&t=r5X4d9URgi0BA5hHFt-TEA
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Sep 25, 2022 18:38
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TheRat posted:The article we're talking about suggests there's a lot of losses around Kherson Yes, but those losses are small compared to the larger front. That is the point. Soldiers are killed when the front moves, much less so when it's static. The high rate of loses the last week is a reflection of the advances around karkov and the oskil, not the attritional fighting in Kherson.
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Sep 25, 2022 18:43
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/bneeditor/status/1574010324407173121 At least we had the Makhachkala video with the cop fleeing from women.  Owling Howl posted:That makes sense. In a totalitarian state people are oppressed and subdued until something, might, snap and you end up with a revolution or civil war. In the Russian version the majority of people are indifferent? disaffected? The level of civic political activity is very low, when it comes to national politics. People care quite a bit about the local stuff, but on the national level the attitudes are mostly passive, even though quite nuanced.
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Sep 25, 2022 18:46
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Owling Howl posted:That makes sense. In a totalitarian state people are oppressed and subdued until something, might, snap and you end up with a revolution or civil war. In the Russian version the majority of people are indifferent? disaffected? Putin's government was really good at making things shockingly normal for middle class people (the most revolutionary class). Nothing would ever be pressing enough to risk major defiance. Average day to day life would essentially be indistinguishable from any other European city. This is changing with the war, but the government has an extremely developed security apparatus and can prevent Kazakhstan or Maidan situations from developing in the first place due to the level of a monopoly of force it has. It can crush small protests non-lethally, not even requiring the more violent means that could cause more unrest/defection from security apperatus. It is rare in modern history to have a "people" overthrow a domestic government. Three things happen, either the coercive apparatus turns against the leadership (military coup), the coercive apparatus fractures (civil war), or the coercive apparatus chooses to stay neutral, thereby taking the side of the protesters (peaceful revolution).
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Sep 25, 2022 18:57
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https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1574075892472619011
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Sep 25, 2022 18:59
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https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1574093348796760064 Still not really clear what the situation is north of lyman. Looks like Ukraine has breached the oskil, and the Russians took heavy losses trying to hold it, but not certain how many forces they have or if they'll even commit past Lyman once it falls.
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Sep 25, 2022 19:38
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Yeah IIRC ISW last night also had these crossing. Its entirely possible (but obvious not certain) that Ukraine may be attempting a Kharkiv Offensive 2.0 here. Though apparently issues with mud is slowing it down.
MegaZeroX fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 19:40
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Ukraine has tough choices right now. Keeping up the pressure could reap enormous dividends - pushing Russian logistics to the breaking point is probably the only way the Kherson offensive actually succeeds. But if it doesn't work they'll have expended their best units right as Russia is preparing to reinforce heavily. A lot of the conscription wave will probably go to third-tier posts so that they can be further plundered for manpower, so not everyone showing up in Ukraine is going to be a scrub.
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Sep 25, 2022 19:48
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FishBulbia posted:It is rare in modern history to have a "people" overthrow a domestic government. Three things happen, either the coercive apparatus turns against the leadership (military coup), the coercive apparatus fractures (civil war), or the coercive apparatus chooses to stay neutral, thereby taking the side of the protesters (peaceful revolution). Yeah that's my take as well. A while ago I actually asked the Milhist thread if there were any examples of a people overthrowing a government which retained full loyalty of police and military. They came up with one example: Haiti, 1804 - sort of. Perhaps a palace coup is the most probable scenario in Russia but it's not really clear how bad things would have to get for that to happen or if they can get that bad.
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Sep 25, 2022 20:00
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And a palace coup would likely end up with someone even less stable in charge.
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Sep 25, 2022 20:12
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FishBulbia posted:It is rare in modern history to have a "people" overthrow a domestic government. Three things happen, either the coercive apparatus turns against the leadership (military coup), the coercive apparatus fractures (civil war), or the coercive apparatus chooses to stay neutral, thereby taking the side of the protesters (peaceful revolution). If support gets low enough, one of those three things will happen though. The military/security forces aren't completely separated from the people, and in general if unrest gets bad enough someone with power within that group will get the bright idea to suspend whatever government is in power. I don't know if it will happen to Russia, but even governments can't survive with indefinite ultra-low approval ratings. In general, if approval ratings slink below something like 10%, that regime isn't long for this world.
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Sep 25, 2022 20:16
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MegaZeroX posted:In general, if approval ratings slink below something like 10%, that regime isn't long for this world. In August, 67% said that the country is moving in the right direction, and 83% approved of Putin. https://www.levada.ru/2022/08/31/odobrenie-institutov-rejtingi-politikov/
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Sep 25, 2022 20:24
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Kim Jong-il, Jean-Bédel Bokassa and Robert Mugabe are all examples of oppressive leaders who lasted years, low approval doesn't matter if you have the security apparatus keeping a boot firmly on the peoples' necks.
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Sep 25, 2022 20:30
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Ukraine has tough choices right now. Keeping up the pressure could reap enormous dividends - pushing Russian logistics to the breaking point is probably the only way the Kherson offensive actually succeeds. But if it doesn't work they'll have expended their best units right as Russia is preparing to reinforce heavily. Looks like Russian lines still haven't really solidified after the route at Izyum and they're throwing in whatever is available to plug the gap. They will probably keep up pressure until the Russians reassemble a coherent defensive line, since no point in stopping while they're still in disarray. I don't know what they do next though. Eventually Russia will redeploy enough to make their advance a lot harder. They could keep up the pressure and push into into the east, or rotate to another axis thinned out by the defense along the oskil. TheDeadlyShoe posted:A lot of the conscription wave will probably go to third-tier posts so that they can be further plundered for manpower, so not everyone showing up in Ukraine is going to be a scrub. I don't think mobilization is really a factor on the front for a while yet. Fighting now is about exploiting their advantage and positioning for the winter and spring.
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Sep 25, 2022 20:32
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NASAMS, with what missiles? If they're firing off surface versions of AMRAAM, that is something that could easily nix 5th gen fighters out of the sky far better than any manpad alone. That is a complicated machine and I look forward to seeing what's next on the menu -- has anyone confirmed Ukraine received those C-RAM batteries promised by Congress?
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Sep 25, 2022 20:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:In August, 67% said that the country is moving in the right direction, and 83% approved of Putin.  Probably nowhere near low enough to actually bring down the regime via popular dissent or even spark mass protests on the scale we see in Iran. But that's not necessarily the only way for him to go. Coup chat doesn't seem to be explicitly against the rules, so. From the Coup d'État practical handbook: quote:If a coup does not make use of the masses, or of warfare, what
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Sep 25, 2022 21:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:In August, 67% said that the country is moving in the right direction, and 83% approved of Putin. I’ve been wondering this for a while and I’m not Russian so I am talking completely out of my rear end when I write this, but How accurate are opinion polls going to be in Russia right now? Even if the entity which is doing the polling is independent of the government, people might still be paranoid and give answers which they think won’t incriminate them in some way. We’ve recently seen people in Russia locked up for some absolutely ridiculous poo poo, so people might be obfuscating their actual opinions on the matter
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Sep 25, 2022 21:11
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You only have to look at the ongoing horror in Myanmar for how a government with 0 popular support can stay in power so long as the security services remain loyal.
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Sep 25, 2022 21:18
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Owling Howl posted:Yeah that's my take as well. A while ago I actually asked the Milhist thread if there were any examples of a people overthrowing a government which retained full loyalty of police and military. They came up with one example: Haiti, 1804 - sort of. Haven't most revolutions or overthrows needed an outside influence helping people too?
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Sep 25, 2022 21:21
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A Bad King posted:surface versions of AMRAAM Say it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SLAMRAAM No I won't stop talking about SLAMRAAMs.
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Sep 25, 2022 21:35
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I wonder how widespread this sort of thing is: https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1574135116624019456 Corruption is one hell of a thing. Nobody cares about the actual outcome of anything they ever do
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Sep 25, 2022 21:36
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Pennsylvanian posted:Say it: In a decade the Navy will be procuring SM-69's and we won't bat an eye, given how we just let them keep getting away with it. edit: Standard Missiles are prefixed with RIM and I just missed it. RIM-69. hurf durf.
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Sep 25, 2022 21:45
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