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So Private Glomba is more effective than Putin assumed the entire Ukrainian army would be... Anyway, a logistics question- rail transport is crucial. How quickly can new rail lines be built? Is it feasible to lay a new rail line to support a war, a campaign, a battle?
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Sep 26, 2022 04:49
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Risky Bisquick posted:He should be training people how to engage with MANPADS, that is a ridiculous number of planes downed by one person. The point of MANPADs is they are relatively easy to fire without a ton of training. It's pretty remarkable he was able to even fire at that many planes in the first place, there were likely plenty of misses as well which would mean that parts of this war involved a ton of low flying aircraft in such density to have given this guy the opportunity to fire that many times. I wonder if the tweet really meant to say aircraft and not "planes"? That would make a lot more sense as MANPADs are far more effective against helicopters than much faster and usually higher altitude jets where you have a very limited window of opportunity to fire.
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Sep 26, 2022 04:51
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Sep 26, 2022 04:52
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Tree Bucket posted:
That extremely depends on the terrain between where you are and where you want to go.
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Sep 26, 2022 04:58
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Popete posted:The point of MANPADs is they are relatively easy to fire without a ton of training. It's pretty remarkable he was able to even fire at that many planes in the first place, there were likely plenty of misses as well which would mean that parts of this war involved a ton of low flying aircraft in such density to have given this guy the opportunity to fire that many times. Even if it's just helicopters, that's still a pretty incredible feat
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Sep 26, 2022 05:34
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Pook Good Mook posted:In "fairness" to the Russians, it works both ways. Ukraine has to leave a sizeable force regardless of other theaters so guard their lone remaining port at Odessa. I mean also the Russians just want to hold Kherson for Kherson's sake. It's a city of 300k and the regional capital. It's the second most important place they've taken since Donetsk. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 05:47 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 05:37
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Popete posted:The point of MANPADs is they are relatively easy to fire without a ton of training. It's pretty remarkable he was able to even fire at that many planes in the first place, there were likely plenty of misses as well which would mean that parts of this war involved a ton of low flying aircraft in such density to have given this guy the opportunity to fire that many times. Clearly, the weapon system is doing a lot of work. There's a lot of work it can't do, though, like getting to position, selecting a firing position, selecting a shot, movement to a safer position. He is now a credible and experienced potential instructor in those aspects.
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Sep 26, 2022 05:44
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For anyone who might be interested, this video is a pretty good mini-tutorial on how to use the Stinger (starting at 1:40). There are several steps involved. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0nuhI05QyA
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Sep 26, 2022 05:54
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The Lone Badger posted:That extremely depends on the terrain between where you are and where you want to go. Likewise if you want to go normal gauge or narrow gauge because a lighter narrower train requires less work to get running. At some instances Soviets laid narrow gauge tracks to support their front in WW2. But it's not that useful nowadays with modern battlefield surveillance and long range precision munitions.
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Sep 26, 2022 05:56
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Nenonen posted:Likewise if you want to go normal gauge or narrow gauge because a lighter narrower train requires less work to get running. At some instances Soviets laid narrow gauge tracks to support their front in WW2. But it's not that useful nowadays with modern battlefield surveillance and long range precision munitions. Does it ever make sense to 'convert' an existing highway into a railroad because all the cuttings and landscaping are already done and all you have to do is lay ties? Or is a good road too valuable in-itself to do that?
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Sep 26, 2022 06:04
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The Lone Badger posted:Does it ever make sense to 'convert' an existing highway into a railroad because all the cuttings and landscaping are already done and all you have to do is lay ties? Or is a good road too valuable in-itself to do that? Admittedly this might not apply in Ukraine, but acceptable grade is way higher for motor traffic than rail. Highways can easily go up to 7-8% where trains really prefer 1-2%.
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Sep 26, 2022 06:09
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The Lone Badger posted:Does it ever make sense to 'convert' an existing highway into a railroad because all the cuttings and landscaping are already done and all you have to do is lay ties? Or is a good road too valuable in-itself to do that? I would think that the flexibility of road traffic is more useful and less predictable. Maybe well behind the lines if the enemy controls parts of the rail network and you wanted to improve lateral connections. But it's a long time investment and it's kind of pessimistic assumption that you won't be driving the enemy away before the new tracks are ready.
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Sep 26, 2022 06:20
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Sekenr posted:Dagestan is rising, will likely get crushed while Moscow boys whine how hard everything is and pls get me a therapist and ticket to Georgia.  https ://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049 drat whinning russians FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 06:59
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JFC tag that poo poo "guy getting yeeted with a shotgun at point blank"
Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 07:12 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 07:02
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you probably want to tag it as just to be clear
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Sep 26, 2022 07:15
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these acts of stochastic individual violence will be the norm as Putin's regime becomes increasingly existential for the average Russian, not because Russians are genetic thought cowards as certain racists would have you believe, but because the security apparatus is mature enough that doing individual terrorism is easier than attempting any real large scale mobilization against the system, peaceful or otherwise.
FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 07:33 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 07:30
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Number_6 posted:For anyone who might be interested, this video is a pretty good mini-tutorial on how to use the Stinger (starting at 1:40). There are several steps involved. Okay sure, but what if you need to shoot down your brother while he flies a Harrier?
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Sep 26, 2022 07:59
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whydirt posted:Okay sure, but what if you need to shoot down your brother while he flies a Harrier? At least you can rest easy knowing you won't see any HIND-Ds anytime soon. The -D is an export variant
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Sep 26, 2022 08:06
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  https://www.is.fi/autot/art-2000009093745.html According to TASS Belarus has blocked export of 250 industrial products to Russia, including tractors, cars, bicycles, motorcycles, engines, power plants and agricultural and forestry machines. The list also includes railroad and aviation equipment, it hardware and smartphones. This temporary export ban is meant to last for six months. This sounds very normal and fine for the union state... Lukashenka afraid of sanctions?
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Sep 26, 2022 08:20
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Who could have predicted that trying to build a bloc out of Not Nice people who believe in zero-sum politics and eating the weak could have consequences down the line?
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Sep 26, 2022 08:25
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There’s no point backing a power that is speed running the hollowing process in every metric from demographics to economy to force projection. What is Putin going to do when Lukashenko needs help from Russia? He’s not going to get much of anything if poo poo really hits the fan. jeffreyw fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 08:27
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Nenonen posted:This sounds very normal and fine for the union state... Lukashenka afraid of sanctions? 100% this. Same reason many Chinese companies have ceased trade. Though I wonder, considering the massive land borders between them, is how diffilcult it would be to actually monitor if said sanctions are being broken.
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Sep 26, 2022 08:41
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FishBulbia posted:these acts of stochastic individual violence will be the norm as Putin's regime becomes increasingly existential for the average Russian, not because Russians are genetic thought cowards as certain racists would have you believe, but because the security apparatus is mature enough that doing individual terrorism is easier than attempting any real large scale mobilization against the system, peaceful or otherwise. I'm having trouble understanding any of this. individual acts are not 'stochastic individual violence' but are rather stochastically inspired, and i don't think that phenomenon relates to pre-emptive fragging during a general conscription. also, what revolutionary uprising against 'mature security apparatus' doesn't start with individual acts anyway?
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Sep 26, 2022 08:50
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Recent news has made me wonder about how much of armed crowd suppression forces are left in Russia. I imagine Moscow and Sankt Petersburg are not in any way threatened, since Putin likely keeps some interior troops handy. But what if poo poo hits the fan in Kazan or Chelyabinsk? Rosgvardia according to Wiki has a whooping 340k employees, but I imagine most of them are not suitable to cracking heads. SOBR and OMON combined were at ~25k before they got mauled in Ukraine.
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Sep 26, 2022 08:53
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FishBulbia posted:https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1573772254399369216?s=20&t=WSgEJTxLT0nYhj4NDGK6dA *grumbles* as much as I like the content they provide and a lot of the information they provide is solid, the polish dude running this account finally came forward and gave an interview about it. It's uh... complicated. While he and vysegrad24 don't lie, they do tend to be a bit more on the nationalist side of things overall here in Poland. He works for the government tv at the moment, and well, the main news channel here is mocked by the general public for constantly putting out the opposite of truth and playing into the "if we say X and the other media say Y, noone will believe any media!" line of thinking that got Russia to where it is today. But, on the other hand, the nationalist approach does make sense when you're fighting the war for the existance of your nation, and the reporting checks out, they even started putting sources in the replies. So the conclusion would be - read vysegrad24 with caution, and leave them be after the war. My dude on the way to that Chopper Gunner killstreak. jeffreyw posted:What is Putin going to do when Lukashenko needs help from Russia? He’s not going to get much of anything if poo poo really hits the fan. Nothing, but what's more important, he'll not be able to stop him when he tries to turn coat and look to the West for his future. Baćka has been doing this the whole war - holding on to some level of "neutrality", not engaging his own forces, I don't even think he donated equipment for Russia (they would need it now lol). When something threatens him, he'll simply say "gently caress off Vlad" and surrender to EU and NATO if necessary. It's crazy how he seems like the more rational dictator when compared to Putin, but at the core he always was a coward who hid in the big brothers shadow.
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Sep 26, 2022 08:54
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Kavros posted:IAlso, what revolutionary uprising against 'mature security apparatus' doesn't start with individual acts anyway? None. A revolution happens when a competitor to one system has greater control over force.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:19
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buglord posted:Most of Perun's videos are on extremely dry subject matter, but somehow the dude manages to make them interesting enough that I listen to them the entire way through. Has he ever said what his background is as far as education/job experience is? Its an extremely niche area to be an expert in, and its hard to believe he decided to make military procurement and economics his bread and butter. Expert Dominions player.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:21
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buglord posted:Most of Perun's videos are on extremely dry subject matter, but somehow the dude manages to make them interesting enough that I listen to them the entire way through. Has he ever said what his background is as far as education/job experience is? Its an extremely niche area to be an expert in, and its hard to believe he decided to make military procurement and economics his bread and butter. His youtube bio suggests something regarding investments or financial advice as regards anything that will be utilized by the military. He may be coming more from the economics side of things as far as education, and the military stuff is a hobby.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:29
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FishBulbia posted:None. A revolution happens when a competitor to one system has greater control over force. But hasn't most of the enforcers of the security apparatus been killed in Ukraine? These guys were in the first columns into Ukraine that got massacred.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:30
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Charlz Guybon posted:But hasn't most of the enforcers of the security apparatus been killed in Ukraine? Not really. 1/200 Russians is a cop, and thats not even including paramilitary enforcers. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 09:47 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 09:33
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Charlz Guybon posted:But hasn't most of the enforcers of the security apparatus been killed in Ukraine? No. There are tens of thousands of OMON troops alone. National Guard is hundreds of thousands strong. Local police and other security services are separate. A lot of state security all over the place.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:37
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Fat Samurai posted:Expert Dominions player. Respect. I've played quite a bit of Dominions 3 and.. it's an experience. For Vysegrad24 Twitter: they are pushing right-wing spin and is state media affiliated, but as far as I know noone has caught them on a lie. But I agree we shouldn't signal boost the account if the info is available elsewhere.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:39
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This feels like the beginning of the end. Mobilization with mass protests and shootings, no instructors or trainers, a school shooting today, hundreds of thousands fleeing abroad, mobilised troops largely drunk with rotten equipment, no body armour or warm clothes with the autumn starting and a month or two before sub-zero temperatures If this isn't what an empire falling apart and its convulsions in agony looks like then I don't know what is
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Sep 26, 2022 09:39
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Charlz Guybon posted:But hasn't most of the enforcers of the security apparatus been killed in Ukraine? No, you have to understand the scale of Russian security forces. There are multiple agencies and some of them, like OMON, have their own military grade subgroups intended e.g to fight insurgents. They are not the same guys that normally beat up common protesters.
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Sep 26, 2022 09:41
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Somaen posted:This feels like the beginning of the end. Mobilization with mass protests and shootings, no instructors or trainers, a school shooting today, hundreds of thousands fleeing abroad, mobilised troops largely drunk with rotten equipment, no body armour or warm clothes with the autumn starting and a month or two before sub-zero temperatures Sweet innocent one, the agony has just begun. We will look back on these happy days soon enough, when human fat is powering Prigozhin's tanks on their 18th attempt to encircle Far Eastern Ukraine
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Sep 26, 2022 09:42
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Fat Samurai posted:Expert Dominions player. oh he actually is, thats cool
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Sep 26, 2022 09:46
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FishBulbia posted:Sweet innocent one, the agony has just begun. We will look back on these happy days soon enough, when human fat is powering Prigozhin's tanks on their 18th attempt to encircle Far Eastern Ukraine Your predictions haven't been particularly good before and I hope that continues Good times, good times FishBulbia posted:If Russia did a full scale invasion with combined arms the Ukrainian army would pretty instantly be rendered combat ineffective by tactical missiles and overwhelming air superiority. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 26, 2022 09:48
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Somaen posted:Your predictions haven't been particularly good before and I hope that continues But it is only a Special military operation, not a full scale invasion... While it is obvious why our media in the West is showing and talking about the Russian mobilization in such negative ways, it is by no means good news for Ukraine and one can hope it is the beginning of the end but you generally do not partially mobilise your populace for short term reasons. Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 09:52
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Somaen posted:Your predictions haven't been particularly good before and I hope that continues Take it up with the experts https://twitter.com/foxnews/status/1490135655531307008?lang=en https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-02-21/russias-shock-and-awe "The Russian military would likely open its campaign with airstrikes targeting command-and-control systems, logistical centers, airports, air defenses, and other critical infrastructure. To carry them out, Moscow could use hundreds of bombers as well as ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles. The Russian military has also deployed near Ukraine high-powered artillery and long-range rocket systems to support its ground forces with overwhelming firepower. Airstrikes would not go entirely uncontested. Russia’s air force lacks experience in suppressing or destroying enemy air defenses, and it rarely uses missiles that are designed to destroy radar. As a result, Ukraine’s meager air defenses could still pose a challenge. But Ukrainian air defenses are in short supply, and they would be unlikely to provide effective cover for most of the country’s ground troops. They would be quickly overwhelmed. The opening air campaign would probably be short. Unlike Western militaries, which concentrate firepower in their air forces, Russia puts the bulk of its firepower in its ground forces, so it would quickly proceed to a ground campaign. It would start by using helicopters to drop troops into Ukraine. Russia might also strategically drop paratroopers and airlift troops and armored vehicles well behind the frontline to seize bridges or other infrastructure. The main effort of Russia’s ground campaign would be to create a pincer movement from the north that encircled Kyiv and enveloped the bulk of Ukraine’s ground forces in the eastern part of the country. Russian formations would then cut off Ukrainian supply lines and fragment the Ukrainian military into isolated pockets surrounded by Russian troops. Drones and combat helicopters would offer Russian ground forces reconnaissance and cover. ... Ukraine is vast, which makes it impractical for the country’s inferior force to mount an effective defense against an invasion. The most logical strategy for the Ukrainian military would therefore be to fight an organized retreat, imposing as high a cost as it can on any Russian advance. Falling back to more defensible terrain, such as the Dnieper River, which runs through the middle of Ukraine, could help deplete Russian forces. But Ukrainian forces would fall victim to Russian air attacks as they retreated, and Russian ground forces would move quickly to try to surround Ukrainian formations. The Russian military would also move in from Belarus in the north, allowing many troops to avoid crossing the Dnieper River. They could then attack from both west and east of Kyiv and cut off the city from most of the Ukrainian army. The fight outside Kyiv might then entail a handful of Ukrainian brigades battling far more and far more powerful Russian forces, which would be supported by airborne units. This is a fight that Ukraine would almost certainly lose." FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 09:56 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 09:53
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I don't think "I based my claim on another guy who was also wrong" changes anything about the quality of your analytical/predictive capabilities
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Sep 26, 2022 09:57
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