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Cythereal posted:https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1574741612093181952?t=TMRe6WeIlPYzJ8YAllp3NA&s=19 psydude posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08ef7e8107b31e So who did this? The Poles or Baltics? The Russians themselves? Anti-Russian protesters? Radical Environmentalists? I'm super curious.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:47
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Torrannor posted:So who did this? The Poles or Baltics? The Russians themselves? Anti-Russian protesters? Radical Environmentalists? I'm super curious. Russia. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1574754484991016965 let’s pull on this thread a bit more. Say you’re Putin and concerned you might lose power in a coup. What would you do today so that your perceived enemies, internal or foreign, would feel not easily reversed pain after you were gone? crippling pipelines seems like an easy start. What is next?
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Sep 27, 2022 14:51
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pmchem posted:Russia. I feel once you start ordering your country to shoot itself in the shin your odds of being tossed out a window increase not decrease. So probably wouldn't be doing stuff like that, but what do I know, I'm not el presidente for life.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:54
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https://twitter.com/jkass99/status/1574430887093178372
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Sep 27, 2022 14:55
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pmchem posted:Russia. Wasn't the gas supply to the EU one of the very few things Putin had for leverage? Other than CBRNE weapon systems, what does he have left for leverage?
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Sep 27, 2022 14:55
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/\ nukesTorrannor posted:So who did this? The Poles or Baltics? The Russians themselves? Anti-Russian protesters? Radical Environmentalists? I'm super curious. Probably the russians, but that's not stopping cspam from saying it was the US. I'd like to think whoever would have planned a SEAL mission for this would have the sense to realize seismic sensors would pick up an explosion, and they'd be smart enough to cut the line with some fancy underwater saw or plasma cutter instead of just lazily tossing explosives overboard and waiting for the bang.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:56
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ASAPI posted:Wasn't the gas supply to the EU one of the very few things Putin had for leverage? Other than CBRNE weapon systems, what does he have left for leverage? he already shut down most gas flow through Nord Stream. they have another gas pipeline to europe going through Ukraine, so leverage remains
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Sep 27, 2022 14:56
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ASAPI posted:Wasn't the gas supply to the EU one of the very few things Putin had for leverage? Other than CBRNE weapon systems, what does he have left for leverage? European Immigration crisis with everyone leaving Russia? Otherwise known as "The North Korean Play"
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Sep 27, 2022 14:56
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pmchem posted:he already shut down most gas flow through Nord Stream. they have another gas pipeline to europe going through Ukraine, so leverage remains Ah, wasn't aware of a second pipeline.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:58
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ASAPI posted:Wasn't the gas supply to the EU one of the very few things Putin had for leverage? Other than CBRNE weapon systems, what does he have left for leverage? The EU was already committed to a total import stop for Russian gas, which Putin mostly pre-empted when he shut down Nord Stream 2 and decreased the gas flow through the Ukrainian pipelines. I don't see what blowing up NS 1 and 2 would do for him.
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Sep 27, 2022 14:59
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ASAPI posted:Wasn't the gas supply to the EU one of the very few things Putin had for leverage? Other than CBRNE weapon systems, what does he have left for leverage? The threat of gas supply was the weapon Putin wanted. Actually pulling the trigger has been a major gently caress up every step of the way. Feeding gas and getting euros while strong arming politicians with "<bad thing> unless you give me what I want" was by far the better situation for him but, welp, here we are. Toothpaste ain't going back in the tube on this one. <bad thing> is here now and nobody has a reason to listen to the toddler throwing a tantrum because he can't fix the damage. Every one else is scrambling to pin the hurt on Putin, not themselves, by playing to the home crowd. That message doesn't work if you go back to the old arrangement.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:03
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I'd watch this show.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:04
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Torrannor posted:The EU was already committed to a total import stop for Russian gas, which Putin mostly pre-empted when he shut down Nord Stream 2 and decreased the gas flow through the Ukrainian pipelines. I don't see what blowing up NS 1 and 2 would do for him. As I said in my post, I think it’s about the not easily reversed harm in case he’s gone. Europe can’t quickly get that gas flow back if a euro friendly government replaces him. He wants his enemies, real or imagined, to suffer.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:31
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Torrannor posted:The EU was already committed to a total import stop for Russian gas, which Putin mostly pre-empted when he shut down Nord Stream 2 and decreased the gas flow through the Ukrainian pipelines. I don't see what blowing up NS 1 and 2 would do for him. False flag op to claim the US did it.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:47
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Torrannor posted:The EU was already committed to a total import stop for Russian gas, which Putin mostly pre-empted when he shut down Nord Stream 2 and decreased the gas flow through the Ukrainian pipelines. I don't see what blowing up NS 1 and 2 would do for him. You're not approaching this with the same mindset as a crazy man who invaded his neighbor for no reason.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:51
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Now he has to secure Ukraine to make sure the EU gets their gas. It’s in their own best interest, right? Right?
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Sep 27, 2022 16:00
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TK-42-1 posted:Now he has to secure Ukraine to make sure the EU gets their gas. It’s in their own best interest, right? Right? And look at all the Russians there! They obviously should be part of Russia
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Sep 27, 2022 16:08
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My Spirit Otter posted:What kind of ridiculous argument is this? No government is going to name names, thats the fuckin point of espionage. That's exactly my point with respect to whether the US government had ever named the names of the individuals Snowden's leaks are supposed to have killed
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Sep 27, 2022 16:25
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ASAPI posted:Wasn't the gas supply to the EU one of the very few things Putin had for leverage? Other than CBRNE weapon systems, what does he have left for leverage? Otoh, leverage only matters if you're willing to actually use it seems unlikely that they blew up the pipelines now though, if they were gonna do that why not wait until the depths of winter
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Sep 27, 2022 16:29
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Zelensky is giving an interview at noon (~20 minutes from now): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tITZXo43vkw
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Sep 27, 2022 16:38
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I’m assuming that blowing up undersea pipelines in a covert fashion requires a pretty non-trivial amount of resources only available to state actors. Curious- I’m assuming they torpedoed it, but do Russian subs even have the same kind of special ops insertion capabilities we do?
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Sep 27, 2022 16:48
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GD_American posted:I’m assuming that blowing up undersea pipelines in a covert fashion requires a pretty non-trivial amount of resources only available to state actors. Pretty sure they pioneered the idea of spec ops subs.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:49
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TK-42-1 posted:Pretty sure they pioneered the idea of spec ops subs. Yeah, but they’re old, poo poo, and most like not in service anymore. The covert seas Twitter account was talking about that.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:50
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GD_American posted:I’m assuming that blowing up undersea pipelines in a covert fashion requires a pretty non-trivial amount of resources only available to state actors. http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html http://www.hisutton.com/Spy%20Sub%20-%20Project%2010831%20Losharik.html http://www.hisutton.com/Project%201910%20UNIFORM%20Class.html Marshal Prolapse posted:Yeah, but they’re old, poo poo, and most like not in service anymore. The covert seas Twitter account was talking about that.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:52
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GD_American posted:I’m assuming that blowing up undersea pipelines in a covert fashion requires a pretty non-trivial amount of resources only available to state actors. The Baltic in that region is like 50m deep, that's within recreational diving depth. People going way too overboard on the Clancy secret submarine stuff, you could do this with a fishing boat and basic dive gear. The hardest part is the explosives handling but underwater demolition is still a capability held by commercial entities.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:59
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Xakura posted:http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html This is a bit more current with his thoughts https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1574750260743880710?s=46&t=qQosYaog4LICOo7u24xbBw
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Sep 27, 2022 17:05
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TK-42-1 posted:Pretty sure they pioneered the idea of spec ops subs. Wasn’t that something WWII Italy was surprisingly competent at doing?
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Sep 27, 2022 17:08
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Jarmak posted:The Baltic in that region is like 50m deep, that's within recreational diving depth. Yeah that’s why I put covert; I figured any commercial/private demolition program would have a far bigger visibility. Didn’t realize the pipeline ran that shallow.
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Sep 27, 2022 17:09
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amazing how every single pro russia twitter account had that clip of biden queued up and ready to go within an hour of this unforseeable event, such coincidence much wow
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Sep 27, 2022 17:13
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Turns out when you forcibly draft the guys who run the pipeline and know how it works, poo poo happens?
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Sep 27, 2022 17:15
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HelloSailorSign posted:Turns out when you forcibly draft the guys who run the pipeline and know how it works, poo poo happens? nah NS1 was valved off closed at both ends and NS2 hadn't even been used yet. Taking into account the simultaneous damage to two independent lines, location of damage, and seismology data this was 100% not an accident done by someone going out of the way to make clear that it was not an accident shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 17:17
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shame on an IGA posted:nah NS1 was valved off closed at both ends and NS2 hadn't even been used yet. Taking into account the simultaneous damage to two independent lines, location of damage, and seismology data this was 100% not an accident done by someone going out of the way to make clear that it was not an accident About as subtle as a novichok poisoning in Salisbury?
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Sep 27, 2022 17:22
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Wasn’t that something WWII Italy was surprisingly competent at doing? Something like that, yep. They used human torpedoes and were pretty effective with them.
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Sep 27, 2022 17:42
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What are the chances the pipeline was built with a few demo charges ready to go? And that they haven't gone bad over the years since.
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Sep 27, 2022 17:46
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Hey europe: Take the loving hint. Build nuke.
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Sep 27, 2022 17:54
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Arrath posted:What are the chances the pipeline was built with a few demo charges ready to go? I would say no, because if that were the case there's a near-unity probability they'd have caused an accident already. FLASH FLASH SEA STORY WARNING One of the persistent tribal lore stories on the CGN I served on was that there were explosive bolts that held on the upper parts of the superstructure, controlled by some means of mercury switches or gyros or something, that would cut the topworks of the ship off if the roll angle exceeded some predetermined amount, to keep the ship from capsizing. It was dramatic as hell and obviously bullshit, because any system like that would have accidentally fired at some point in the years of service, maintenance processes being what they are.
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Sep 27, 2022 18:06
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shame on an IGA posted:amazing how every single pro russia twitter account had that clip of biden queued up and ready to go within an hour of this unforseeable event, such coincidence much wow It's funny because I also see accounts going "  Looks like Dark Brandon forced the EU not to backtrack. ". Almost like Twitter is just a big collection of self-reinforcing echo chambers due to algorithms. 
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Sep 27, 2022 18:07
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Madurai posted:I would say no, because if that were the case there's a near-unity probability they'd have caused an accident already. Lol what the gently caress? No. Just no.
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Sep 27, 2022 18:11
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Madurai posted:I would say no, because if that were the case there's a near-unity probability they'd have caused an accident already. I *really* want to see this implemented and then see it go off because some sailor got bored on night watch
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Sep 27, 2022 18:47
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Madurai posted:I would say no, because if that were the case there's a near-unity probability they'd have caused an accident already. bahahahaha would that even meaningfully change the CG
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Sep 27, 2022 18:50
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