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jesus WEP posted:if magnus went into the game already mad that he had to play a cheater, and then got even madder during the opening when hans responded perfectly, he’s obviously going to be looking for tells and body language abnormalities in a way that he just wouldn’t in any other game Oh, for sure. But the key point is that when a top player like Carlsen says "the vibes are off" there is actually a level of expertise behind that statement.
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Sep 28, 2022 15:58
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I think its fair to say that some people are coming at this like "if you were on the FIDE ethics board, and you were the only person to decide Han's fate, what would you do". I obviously think Hans cheated, but I'm coming at it from "I'm an idiot and nobody would ever care what I think about this, so yeah he cheated just my gut says he did". So basically I sorta see both sides of it from that perspective.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:01
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If he's cheating and there's no evidence that's on the tournament organizers. How much do these online/OTB chess tournaments spend on anti-cheating measures? Do they have experts from other cheating prone industries (casinos, pro sports erc.) audit their anti-cheating system? Like is it just chess people building these plans or is it people with actual expertise in security? If you can cheat for years at the highest level and not only not get caught but there's no actual evidence of your cheating that seems like a pretty catastrophic failure from pro chess as an organization. If Hans was getting away with it there are others who still are.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:17
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totalnewbie posted:People really bending over backwards to defend an ADMITTED CHEATER against the world champion because somehow the world champion has a grudge against an ADMITTED CHEATER or is salty he lost or something. he deffo is salty he lost, have you only been following chess this year nrook posted:I feel all this focus on cheating has distracted the chess community from the real enemies in their midst: people who play 1. d4. i also play the sicilian against e4 
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Sep 28, 2022 16:18
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uPen posted:If he's cheating and there's no evidence that's on the tournament organizers. How much do these online/OTB chess tournaments spend on anti-cheating measures? Do they have experts from other cheating prone industries (casinos, pro sports erc.) audit their anti-cheating system? Like is it just chess people building these plans or is it people with actual expertise in security? My conspiracy theory is that FIDE (besides being cheap) don't want to look to closely into cheating because they're afraid of how exposing how many cheaters there are. Also, their buddies probably cheat too.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:20
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qsvui posted:My conspiracy theory is that FIDE (besides being cheap) don't want to look to closely into cheating because they're afraid of how exposing how many cheaters there are. Also, their buddies probably cheat too. I mean one of the top guys in the previous FIDE regime literally filed fake tournament results.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:22
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qsvui posted:he deffo is salty he lost, have you only been following chess this year I'm saying people think Carlsen is doing all of this because he's mad he lost, not because he thinks he had to play a cheater. Carlsen could have lost against any of the other players in the Sinquefield and would have been mad at himself sure, but 0% chance any of this happens with anyone but Niemann.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:27
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Lol this is going the exact same way as when speedrunners cheat, my firm prediction now is that Hans cheated OTB
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Sep 28, 2022 16:29
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mikeraskol posted:This is a silly detail but what you’re describing is a “fact” that he would be able to testify about at a hypothetical trial. And then opposing counsel will object on speculation grounds and the statement will get thrown out.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:45
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Stop pretending you know anything about law
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Sep 28, 2022 16:48
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Control Volume posted:Lol this is going the exact same way as when speedrunners cheat, my firm prediction now is that Hans cheated OTB There are a few major cheating scandals in video games that this drama has reminded me of, but I think the most interesting and applicable is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDUdGvgmKIw. I don't know enough about how high level chess is managed, but after seeing the past month or so unfold my main hope for any type of definitive proof is from fans finding different metrics to analyze and making automated tools as seen in Trackmania. The more eyes that are on this the better, and I agree that accusations will expand beyond Hans when it becomes easy enough to analyze everyone.
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Sep 28, 2022 16:50
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archduke.iago posted:And then opposing counsel will object on speculation grounds and the statement will get thrown out. You don’t really seem to be following what I’m saying, which is probably on me as I’m not explaining it here very well. So I’ll end this derail. Unrelatedly, I’ve been getting back into chess the last 3-4 months or so after many years in the non-chess wilderness. I like to read books on this stuff - anyone have any recommendations for someone that isn’t really a beginner but needs to work on baseline fundamentals?
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Sep 28, 2022 17:08
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mikeraskol posted:Unrelatedly, I’ve been getting back into chess the last 3-4 months or so after many years in the non-chess wilderness. I like to read books on this stuff - anyone have any recommendations for someone that isn’t really a beginner but needs to work on baseline fundamentals? Yusupov's Build Up Your Chess is an excellent intermediate book. it expects a lot of you and will give a lot in return. the whole set is 9 volumes - i've only worked out of the first one, and haven't even finished it (1500 on chess.com for reference)
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Sep 28, 2022 17:19
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uPen posted:If he's cheating and there's no evidence that's on the tournament organizers. How much do these online/OTB chess tournaments spend on anti-cheating measures? Do they have experts from other cheating prone industries (casinos, pro sports erc.) audit their anti-cheating system? Like is it just chess people building these plans or is it people with actual expertise in security? so the perception is that the physical anti cheating methods are laughable at best for most of these events. Fabi Caruana actually talked about this at length during one of his podcasts. He mentioned that at the recent Candidates match there was enhanced security measures in place that really impressed him, but that event is basically unique in his experience in the chess world. I guess the St. Louis Chess Club has now announced that they will be using comparable security measures at future Sinquefield Cup events, but Fabi made it sound like the stuff they were doing before was basically a once over pass with a cheap metal detecting wand that you could buy off Amazon for $50 or whatever. All of the consideration in the typical event seems to be "how can we enhance the spectator experience?" so you have events where random rear end people (or other players / coaches) can just walk up and stand over a chess board or off to the side and who knows what cheating methods are possible. Fabi suggested for these well funded top tournaments the minimum standard for security should be a 30 minute delay *minimum* on broadcasting or updating the moves of the games, airport style security at the entrance to the playing venue where everyone who wants to enter (players and spectators alike) are searched... He suggested that you could basically present spectators with two options - either they can watch the game from outside the playing hall with their phones or if they want to enter they have to leave all their electronic stuff outside. I think I saw that one of the Polgar sisters recommended that spectators should only be able to view the games in person for the first 30-40 minutes and then the hall should be cleared of everyone but the players for the remainder of the games. So all I can report is the impression I get from listening to these top players, but it seems like there is much more that could be done on the ground floor level (and will hopefully be done in the future). As for the computer cheating detection algorithms that stuff seems very insular to me as well.. I can appreciate that releasing the details of what they can detect and what they can't detect would compromise the reliability of these methods, but I hope at the very least that FIDE has enough wherewithal to hire super GM's to try and test out if they can beat these algorithms using cheating methods speculated on in this very thread.. To me the statement by Regan that most cheaters are "dumb" in that they aren't particularly sophisticated and they will use the computer to assist them all the time in a very obvious way because all of the cheaters he's identified using his algorithm are people that have been that stupid raises some huge red flags to say the least lol.. **I guess to venture my opinion on the events of the Sinquefield Cup, I think 100% that Hans is a cheater who has cheated extensively online and occasionally over the board for years. I don't believe however that he was cheating in the Sinquefield Cup match vs Magnus or in his other games, and Magnus let his feelings about the matter and Niemann's apparently off-putting conduct at the board get the best of him, leading him to play what has been suggested by many of his peers to be one of his worst games in years. I wish he hadn't brought up that stuff about Hans not looking nervous or not having his head in the game or w/e because it's an awful hill to die on when there is basically nothing suspicious about the moves that Hans played in that game.. at least to the extent that other players in the event have postulated that they don't believe anything Hans did was outside of the capabilities of a comparable player in the 2650 to 2700 rating range. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Sep 28, 2022 |
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Sep 28, 2022 18:25
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I guess this could depend on your style of learning, but the book that helped me improve the most so far was the Zurich International Chess Tournament, 1953 book - the David Bronstein one. Best thing is there is a lot of content in there that I found to be quite above my level, so I'm bound to get even more out of it on re-reading.
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Sep 28, 2022 18:26
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a.p. dent posted:Yusupov's Build Up Your Chess is an excellent intermediate book. it expects a lot of you and will give a lot in return. the whole set is 9 volumes - i've only worked out of the first one, and haven't even finished it (1500 on chess.com for reference) Seconding this, it's got a weird ordering so Google that first but even the first one which starts with some mates and k&p endgames and is, described as fundamentals is challenging in its exercises.
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Sep 28, 2022 18:28
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a.p. dent posted:Yusupov's Build Up Your Chess is an excellent intermediate book. it expects a lot of you and will give a lot in return. the whole set is 9 volumes - i've only worked out of the first one, and haven't even finished it (1500 on chess.com for reference) Cast_No_Shadow posted:Seconding this, it's got a weird ordering so Google that first but even the first one which starts with some mates and k&p endgames and is, described as fundamentals is challenging in its exercises. Awesome, thanks both. Will check this out.
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Sep 28, 2022 18:29
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Categorically excluding unquantifiable evidence (as opposed to quantifiable but as-yet-unquantified evidence) is an extremely narrow epistemological view that, if actually followed rigorously, leaves you basically unable to functionFangz posted:The difference between the distributions for Magnus and Hans above is easily statistically significant. The question is whether you can come up with a plausible alternative explanation. A statistical difference between Hams and Magnus just says that Hans and Magnus play differently, which is expected and obvious. You'd want to do a comparison between Hans and a wide sample of comparable-elo players and then make the assertion "Hans does not play like a GM." That graph is bizarre enough that I think the proper analysis would very likely turn up the expected result but I'm just frustrated at the lack of rigor in everything I've seen purporting to use numbers to prove something. And yeah, while the n is high enough it's probably statistically significant, I'd still like to see some notion of a proper test being done to prove it. The advantage of numerical evidence is that math doesn't care about vibes and can't be tricked by reading preconceived notions into charts, which is why I think its important to do the math right It sounds like the chess.com cheating team is working on a detailed report which will probably have the statistics I crave so I will look forward to that. I'm not sure twitter will ever have the level of rigor I really want because of the nature of the medium
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Sep 28, 2022 18:35
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mikeraskol posted:Awesome, thanks both. Will check this out. They’re published by Quality Chess out of Glasgow and are available as a bundle.
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Sep 28, 2022 18:36
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Cast_No_Shadow posted:Seconding this, it's got a weird ordering so Google that first but even the first one which starts with some mates and k&p endgames and is, described as fundamentals is challenging in its exercises. i was pretty arrogant going into it, and the first chapter of checkmate patterns wrecked me. i only know K+P endgames because of this book
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Sep 28, 2022 18:45
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This scandal reminds me of the Astros cheating scandal, what with the computer-derived information and the alleged use of buzzers to communicate*. Once people knew what to look for, within a month people found a number of statistical anomalies showing that they were cheating. It turned out that no one used a hidden vibrator, they all had the low-tech method of banging on a trash can. Now that we know what to look for with Niemann, a good analysis of his rate of 100% games with other GMs should be a good test to make. * This baseball team used a hidden camera to see the other team's hand signs telling the pitcher what to throw, used a computer to decide them if necessary, and then hit a trash can with a bat once or twice to relay the sign to their batter. They won the World Series before they got publically exposed.
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Sep 28, 2022 18:57
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a.p. dent posted:i was pretty arrogant going into it, and the first chapter of checkmate patterns wrecked me. i only know K+P endgames because of this book Same. But oh boy does he force you to learn why the bishop pair can be so dangerous with the chapter 2? Mates Literally beautiful murder machines.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:00
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Also on the hans engine matching thing. The way it works is crowd sourcing engine analysis and if his move matches any of the engines top moves it counts it. There is no quality control on the engines used or depth. This means two things. 1. A score can go up (someone uses an engine that says X is the top move when none did before) but never down. 2. If someone, for some reason is attracting a lot of attention, their scores will be higher. Someone dug into one of the 100% games of hans and found that yes, every move was a tip engine line, found by at least 1 of 150 different engines. I'm pretty sure you do that to any super GM game where they played well and you can find an engine out there that thinks it's a good move at some depth. Not saying he didn't cheat, but as others have pointed out, these stats are garbage and prove nothing one way or the other, only that hans had some games where he played good moves.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:10
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I've been taking this whole saga as a stress test of chess's anti-cheating measures, and it's just been awful. There's almost no serious analysis out there, and this is for a goony weirdo everyone already suspects of cheating. It seems like there's just no way to detect and stop and cheater who's less of a highly visible rear end in a top hat
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Sep 28, 2022 19:12
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Hikaru is currently reading a new Vice article on stream, apparently new stuff? Who knows.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:31
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What gets me is the standard deviation--Magnus' is tight whereas Hans has such high spread. It'd be interesting to me to see if any other top level players of a similar career time showed the same wide distribution. Says either he's super uneven in his play, or possibly two overlapping distributions conflated into one? I'd be interested in seeing also, say, Tal's distribution, and if we could track when he played hungover vs. well slept and sober (if such data exist, he had quite the reputation) eta: for Intermediate books I've had How to Reassess your Chess recommended a lot. I have a copy but have discovered I'm much more a beginner than I first thought.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:35
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Chamale posted:This scandal reminds me of the Astros cheating scandal, what with the computer-derived information and the alleged use of buzzers to communicate*. Once people knew what to look for, within a month people found a number of statistical anomalies showing that they were cheating. It turned out that no one used a hidden vibrator, they all had the low-tech method of banging on a trash can. Now that we know what to look for with Niemann, a good analysis of his rate of 100% games with other GMs should be a good test to make. There's a video from last week of Danny Rensch revealing that chess.com consulted with MLB on that. Bilirubin posted:What gets me is the standard deviation--Magnus' is tight whereas Hans has such high spread. It'd be interesting to me to see if any other top level players of a similar career time showed the same wide distribution. Says either he's super uneven in his play, or possibly two overlapping distributions conflated into one? I would guess that Ivanchuk would be the best test case. Maybe a serial choker like Aronian, too.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:37
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the actual way to test that hypothesis would be to compare Hans to all similar-elo players and see if his standard deviation is an outlier, not compare him to a specific player who you think he ought to resemble
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Sep 28, 2022 19:41
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The problem is the metric itself seems to be unreliable. It's based on crowdsourced engine analysis and it's not clear you can reproduce the conditionsCast_No_Shadow posted:Someone dug into one of the 100% games of hans and found that yes, every move was a tip engine line, found by at least 1 of 150 different engines. I'm pretty sure you do that to any super GM game where they played well and you can find an engine out there that thinks it's a good move at some depth.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:45
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cheetah7071 posted:the actual way to test that hypothesis would be to compare Hans to all similar-elo players and see if his standard deviation is an outlier, not compare him to a specific player who you think he ought to resemble I took Bilirubin's comment to be coming at it from the opposite direction. What does the spread of highly erratic players look like?
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Sep 28, 2022 19:46
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Vice has published an article on one of Hans' coaches getting caught cheating a couple of times on Chess.com
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Sep 28, 2022 19:47
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It would probably be more interesting (or at least entertaining) to analyze the worst games Hans played.
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Sep 28, 2022 19:47
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So in other Chess drama GM Smirin decided that being an announcer during the women's grand prix was a good time to say that Chess isn't for women and decry the sexism of a women's only tournament. FIDE acted quickly this time and he is gone. https://twitter.com/FIDE_chess/status/1575044033688248321?s=20&t=xxplJHZ9fcsrt6O2Uvcj6w
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Sep 28, 2022 20:30
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mfcrocker posted:Vice has published an article on one of Hans' coaches getting caught cheating a couple of times on Chess.com So chess.com is now releasing e-mails that they had previously promised to keep private. Also cheating online seems pretty irrelevant when we're talking about OTB cheating. Just a low move from chess.com and Rensch.
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Sep 28, 2022 20:53
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just expose all the online cheating GMs you cowards let chaos reign
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Sep 28, 2022 21:04
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Redmark posted:just expose all the online cheating GMs you cowards 100%. Dlugy was already well known as an online cheater. Just releasing Dlugy'x stinks of a targeted attack at Hans via guilt by association.
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Sep 28, 2022 21:08
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Yeah chess.com have handled this really unprofessionally in my opinion. The only thing they can do to redeem themselves is release the full titled player cheater list. (I mean they could do everyone full list but no one gives a poo poo about xX-weedboner-Xx
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Sep 28, 2022 21:20
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gret posted:So chess.com is now releasing e-mails that they had previously promised to keep private. Also cheating online seems pretty irrelevant when we're talking about OTB cheating. Just a low move from chess.com and Rensch. The game magnus resigned was online.
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Sep 28, 2022 21:37
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busalover posted:Hikaru is currently reading a new Vice article on stream, apparently new stuff? Who knows. I don't know how many viewers chess got back in the Kasparov-Karpov days, but funny that it's been eclipsed by Hikaru Nakamura slowly reading magazine articles out loud for money
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Sep 28, 2022 21:41
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Saying that only OTB cheating matters completely ignores the fact that the future of chess, measured by audience and by money involved, is primarily online. Cheating in any capacity shouldn't be tolerated unless you want the sport to slowly become like baseball or cycling where everybody cheats and we collectively pretend like it's not happening.
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