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Wrong Theory posted:So Russia has no traditional light infantry units? That seems like the basis of everything. All their infantry are either motorized/mechanized/airboner or attached to tank units then? I thought the big benefit to having light infantry is they're just guys and packs. Not as long of a logistics trail as other types. That was the plan, but Russia didn't have enough infantry so they ended up using their BMPs and BTRs as light/scout tanks with minimal crew and no dismount element in the late spring and throughout the summer. This led to massive losses for those vehicles, so now that they're mobilizing, they've squandered those assets and are left with infantry that doesn't conform to their doctrine. As for light infantry, they are guys with packs, but if they need to move fast/far, trucks and transports are what fill that need. The Soviets just figured that they were going to Armored Fist their way to Paris, and needed their infantry to be able to keep pace with their tanks once breakthrough was achieved, rather than have the infantry lag behind the armor like the Germans did in WWII. From the start the Russians haven't had a force that could meet doctrine, didn't have a leadership corps that was interested in following doctrine, and when materiel fell short, don't currently have a doctrine to adapt to the current reality.
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Oct 3, 2022 03:24
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Infantry lagging behind armor you say? That's a Javlin'
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Oct 3, 2022 03:26
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Kinda wonder if Russia post war is gonna have an economy based only around resource extraction, with so much in demand tech talent leaving at the start of the war and probably many fence sitters making their way out post-mobilization. They already had awful demographics, gonna be even worse with so much youth not wanting to return. this is all they had before the war and they’ll be drat lucky to keep much of it. a big chunk of their o&g operations were being handled by western firms who are going to be incredibly shy about making any more big capital investments, while their domestic labor pool is getting tossed into the meat grinder.
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Oct 3, 2022 03:40
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:I just don't see Putin getting out of this alive, one way or another. That's all. I don't see the war ending until he's dead, whether it's by the myriad diseases that western media keeps saying he has, or by proximity to an open window.
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Oct 3, 2022 04:08
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GD_American posted:I don't see the war ending until he's dead, whether it's by the myriad diseases that western media keeps saying he has, or by proximity to an open window. Thankfully he appears to be utterly inept as a micromanaging rear end in a top hat. A lot like Hitler.
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Oct 3, 2022 04:33
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M_Gargantua posted:Infantry lagging behind armor you say? That's a Javlin' 
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Oct 3, 2022 04:37
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GD_American posted:I don't see the war ending until he's dead, whether it's by the myriad diseases that western media keeps saying he has, or by proximity to an open window. Honestly toss his head on the table, say you're withdrawing all forces, and that's that.
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Oct 3, 2022 04:39
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I really wonder what the trigger point will be for re-entry into the world economy for Russia. Obviously it won't happen while the war is going on, and even a ceasefire with them still on Ukrainian soil (including Crimea) wouldn't allow it. But if they lose and withdraw totally, would it ever happen while Putin is in power? If not, what conditions would his successor have to meet before money and borders would start opening up again?
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Oct 3, 2022 05:21
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GD_American posted:I really wonder what the trigger point will be for re-entry into the world economy for Russia. Obviously it won't happen while the war is going on, and even a ceasefire with them still on Ukrainian soil (including Crimea) wouldn't allow it. But if they lose and withdraw totally, would it ever happen while Putin is in power? If not, what conditions would his successor have to meet before money and borders would start opening up again? Good question, the MegaCorps involved don’t care about human rights or aggression but are very unlikely to resume investment if there’s a high likelihood their assets will be seized by the state as a part of brinkmanship with the west or that their employees would be taken hostage.
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Oct 3, 2022 05:40
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GD_American posted:I really wonder what the trigger point will be for re-entry into the world economy for Russia. Obviously it won't happen while the war is going on, and even a ceasefire with them still on Ukrainian soil (including Crimea) wouldn't allow it. But if they lose and withdraw totally, would it ever happen while Putin is in power? If not, what conditions would his successor have to meet before money and borders would start opening up again? I think a peace treaty with Ukraine, settlement of reparations (if any) and the withdrawal of troops from border regions would do it. Maybe the repatriation of all those Ukrainians they kidnapped from Mariupol. It may be a gradual process with the broad economic sanctions removed straight away once those conditions are met but restrictions on defense technology remaining in place for some time - I don't think anyone wants Russia rebuilding their army while the loss is still fresh on their minds. Import/export stuff should start pretty quickly after the removal of sanctions but deeper engagement like direct foreign investment could take a very long time to return to pre-2014 levels, especially if Putin is replaced by some rabid ultranationalist deemed likely to kick poo poo off again at some point.
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Oct 3, 2022 07:54
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Gonna want war crimes scapegoats as well.
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Oct 3, 2022 08:04
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Post-war Russia will not magically become a developed democracy, particularly in view of the likelihood of splintering in the aftermath. Chechnya might be too repressed and ravaged to be among the first, but there are numerous nations throughout that will decide their time for independence has come, and this will harden Russian ultranationalists and repression. China might keep relations good to secure a buffer and to benefit from the petroleum imports, but I imagine this will be a precarious arrangement. So in short a gigantic pariah state for years to come, brain drain to the West and the Middle East and possibly Asia, further stagnation, further instability. Medvedyev is a tool but he is likely right in his assessment of what a sudden splintering of 500 years of Russian imperialism and oppression will look like.
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Oct 3, 2022 08:06
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Russian rehabilitation and reintegration as some kind of functional democracy is a century long process minimum if it happens at all. It'll take that long to dislodge the mafia state and for all the neighbors who remember this conflict to die out and stop side eyeing Russia. Think post WW2 west Germany.
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Oct 3, 2022 08:11
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Carth Dookie posted:Russian rehabilitation and reintegration as some kind of functional democracy is a century long process minimum if it happens at all. Russia has been loving around in eastern Europe for centuries. In the collective memory this current conflict is just the tip of the shitmountain that is Russian reputation. The side-eyeing will continue, and for a good reason.
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Oct 3, 2022 08:38
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Ukraine making strong progress currently on multiple fronts 
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Oct 3, 2022 11:06
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There's photographic evidence of Ukrainians in Mykhailivka, and several OSINT aggregators are saying that they've probably made it as far south as Dudchany. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1576842881582923777 A bit more of a bulge to the west and we'd have a proper salient penis.
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Oct 3, 2022 11:09
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Slava Ukraini
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Oct 3, 2022 11:19
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https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576862395862876161 I guess that's one way to make sure you're not ousted in a family coup
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Oct 3, 2022 11:47
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Rude Dude With Tude posted:https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576862395862876161 Getting all of your children killed is one way to win a Darwin Award. (yes I know that he has more)
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Oct 3, 2022 11:58
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Rude Dude With Tude posted:https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576862395862876161 I feel a little bad for whoever has the job of babysitting a pack of surly privileged teenage shits who may or may not want to be there. That’s one way to begin paying down the karma of your war criming I guess.
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Oct 3, 2022 12:10
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Tomn posted:I feel a little bad for whoever has the job of babysitting a pack of surly privileged teenage shits who may or may not want to be there. Lol they aren't going to Ukraine. I don't even want to think about what awful loving psychos those kids turn out to be, considering the father. Like, no chance at all that any of them had the chance to be normal.
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Oct 3, 2022 12:28
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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1576904405550772224?s=20&t=_rJvHLGBGD8YW8ZJs3zhzA I laughed at this
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Oct 3, 2022 13:32
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Generation Internet posted:https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1576904405550772224?s=20&t=_rJvHLGBGD8YW8ZJs3zhzA Losing it at all the comments saying this is perfectly consistent with his book yet refusing to clarify
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Oct 3, 2022 14:02
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He is seriously never going to be able to live that poo poo down.
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Oct 3, 2022 14:12
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Force de Fappe posted:He is seriously never going to be able to live that poo poo down. And he shouldn't.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:18
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Force de Fappe posted:He is seriously never going to be able to live that poo poo down. quote:liberal democracy has repeatedly proven to be a fundamentally better system (ethically, politically, economically) than any of the alternatives
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Oct 3, 2022 15:30
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Cugel the Clever posted:He'll never be able to live down people reading their own wrong thing into the phrase? While I'm not sold on the argument in general, Russia's laughably awful performance absolutely does lend credence to what he put forward, which is that, to quote Wikipedia, is: It certainly helps that Russia is largely a mafia state where corruption, greed, and theft run rampant in the government, allowing the military to be heavily undermined in both training and logistics. Like, if there's one thing the US DOD does well, its train for the real thing and constantly. Russia trained for appearances rather than the real events and its biting them in the rear end repeatedly.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:33
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CommieGIR posted:It certainly helps that Russia is largely a mafia state where corruption, greed, and theft run rampant in the government, allowing the military to be heavily undermined in both training and logistics. I think that's the crux of the argument, right? Elected leaders in democracies are still accountable to their voters. And while it certainly isn't the case all of the time, people in a democracy GENERALLY do feel that they are accountable. At least more than in a place like Russia.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:41
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It doesn't hurt to have 10x the budget. The US can afford rampant contractor corruption and training.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:42
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Cugel the Clever posted:He'll never be able to live down people reading their own wrong thing into the phrase? While I'm not sold on the argument in general, Russia's laughably awful performance absolutely does lend credence to what he put forward, which is that, to quote Wikipedia, is: I thought Fukuyama did mean the old meaning of the word liberal when he made that statement, and not the modern american meaning. Meaning that Putin is absolutely a liberal by the definition used by the people like Fukuyama.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:42
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VictualSquid posted:I thought Fukuyama did mean the old meaning of the word liberal when he made that statement, and not the modern american meaning. I'm unaware of any definition of "liberal" that Putin falls under. Which one are you referring to?
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Oct 3, 2022 15:49
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VictualSquid posted:I thought Fukuyama did mean the old meaning of the word liberal when he made that statement, and not the modern american meaning. You're missing the context. He was writing at the time when the USSR - the leading government of the global system of unelected oligarchic communism - was collapsing. Liberal democracy in this context means a market economy and competitive, democratic elections. It has nothing to do with the left/right spectrum. e: Although many leftists of that era, like Jeremy Corbyn, had managed to delude themselves into thinking the USSR bore a remote resemblance to the idealistic system Lenin envisioned.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:50
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:It doesn't hurt to have 10x the budget. The US can afford rampant contractor corruption and training. Well and the US has a well versed training and audit system to verify things are getting done. Not flawless but results in combat ready troops.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:54
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psydude posted:You're missing the context. He was writing at the time when the USSR - the leading government of the global system of unelected oligarchic communism - was collapsing. Liberal democracy in this context means a market economy and competitive, democratic elections. It has nothing to do with the left/right spectrum. All I have heard on Fukuyama's position on post soviet Russia is that he supported Yeltsin, and by implication Yeltsin's chosen successor Putin. Because Putin has always stood for market economy. That is the actual disagreement people generally have with Fukuyama and that trend of political analysis. Saying that market economy (like Yeltsin and Putin have brought to Russia) is synonymous to democracy. Considering that one of the countries has their soldiers supplied through the efficiency of market economy, while the other has the government just hands out weapons to their soldiers, makes this more of a fight of liberals vs. democracy. While there is a different more common definition of liberal now, I am fairly certain that Fukuyama used the old one. Just like Putin did when he called himself a liberal, actually does he still do that?
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Oct 3, 2022 16:13
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psydude posted:
Jesus Christ he’s even loving dumber than I thought he was.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:29
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Stop saying the old one and properly define a subjective term.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:30
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lightpole posted:Stop saying the old one and properly define a subjective term. Liberal used to mean in favour of free markets. And as far as I know that is the definition Fukuyama used when he hyped up the fall of the SU (and by implication Yeltsin's and Putin's rise to power) as incontestable good.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:38
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VictualSquid posted:Liberal used to mean in favour of free markets. And as far as I know that is the definition Fukuyama used when he hyped up the fall of the SU (and by implication Yeltsin's and Putin's rise to power) as incontestable good. Ukraine, an emerging liberal democracy, is being armed by other liberal democracies in their fight against Russia, a state that still depends heavily upon a mixture of nationalized industries (oil and gas) subject to direct government intervention and kleptocraric cronyism. How does that square with your above argument? Or are you just trying to turn this into a discussion about globalization? e: The US has issued equipment to its soldiers since at least the Civil War. A country can have a market economy and a military that's funded by the government. I don't understand your argument. psydude fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Oct 3, 2022 |
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Oct 3, 2022 16:50
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you may think this is silly but Kadyrov is a pro CK3 player, he knows Elective Gavelkind is a crap succession scheme and hasn't unlocked anything else yet so it's time to thin the heir herd
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Oct 3, 2022 16:54
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VictualSquid posted:Liberal used to mean in favour of free markets. And as far as I know that is the definition Fukuyama used when he hyped up the fall of the SU (and by implication Yeltsin's and Putin's rise to power) as incontestable good. In this case "liberal" comes from the Latin "liberalis" and means free or unrestricted. Liberal arts are about the free expression of ideas in multiple forms. A liberal democracy is one that is open to all people of all ideologies. It has nothing to do with any particular ideology or economic system.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:55
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