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Telegram rumors have Ukraine at Krasnorichens'ke right now. If true, this means Ukraine would have already busted open the Kremina - Svatove line lol.
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Oct 3, 2022 20:30
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Dolash posted:I have to assume that the offensive in the North-East by Ukraine will run out of steam sooner or later - even if the Russians completely crumbled, the massed up supply of fuel, ammo, armored vehicles etc feeding the offensive will get exhausted eventually. The last time they did a drive on the proxy regions, in 2014, they went around capitals entirely and just started severing their connections with Russia. This time that’s likely the play to go for again, since the Kyiv-facing areas of them have 8 years of pillboxes and mines now, but I don’t know if marching into those areas is a short term tactical priority for Ukraine. My gut says no.
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Oct 3, 2022 20:31
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MegaZeroX posted:Telegram rumors have Ukraine at Krasnorichens'ke right now. If true, this means Ukraine would have already busted open the Kremina - Svatove line lol. Also in rumored advances from Telegram is Dudchany. Big day if these get confirmed. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577017353673400321
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Oct 3, 2022 20:35
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Cinci shut this down if its too speculative at this point, but how does anyone see this war ending? What will keep russia from just shelling ukraine even if theyre driven from the east and crimea without some major shift within russia? Though the rate russians are falling back theyre gonna be driven all the way to moscow by next year.
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Oct 3, 2022 20:36
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Patrocclesiastes posted:Cinci shut this down if its too speculative at this point, but how does anyone see this war ending? What will keep russia from just shelling ukraine even if theyre driven from the east and crimea without some major shift within russia? This is too speculative, and also discussed like 10 times in the last month.
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Oct 3, 2022 20:38
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MegaZeroX posted:Telegram rumors have Ukraine at Krasnorichens'ke right now. If true, this means Ukraine would have already busted open the Kremina - Svatove line lol. Crayon man got it right so far. https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1576340933238722560
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Oct 3, 2022 20:40
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Have some Ukrainian ingenuity https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1577003226234515456
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Oct 3, 2022 20:40
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^^^ Other than lack of peripheral vision, that's pretty ingenious. Something I try to keep in mind: unless you're following the war very closely, and either have a background in military operations or are in a community--online or otherwise--with such a background, the Western public at large seems to continue over-estimating Russian military capability. Just one anecdote, I was talking with a friend over the weekend and his take was basically, "I'm glad Ukraine is doing so well, but things are going to get bad for them when Russia gets the rest of its military in there." This is a former US Navy officer, reasonably intelligent, educated, etc. And even he hasn't put together that Russia has already committed a large majority of its conventional forces.
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Oct 3, 2022 20:53
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This sounds good of military standardization and cohesion: https://twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1576994499678478336?s=20&t=VCUMOWRcrIOU4ZUuRm_hPw https://twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1576996835390259200?s=20&t=VCUMOWRcrIOU4ZUuRm_hPw Nothing will backfire in anyway, at all. Seriously, this sounds like a recipe for disaster on par with mobilizing the various state militias of the Confederate States Of America against a standing united army of the Union. The Russian MOD just giving up on logistics means that various regions are going to be a mix of Russian gear (either new or refurbished), Chinese and Iranian surplus, or no gear whatsoever. And it will end up with regions getting their own logistics trains separate from Moscow, which will be handy when those same regions turn around and declare their independence in five-ten years.
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Oct 3, 2022 20:57
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Fray posted:Also in rumored advances from Telegram is Dudchany. Big day if these get confirmed. Second Russian source on Dudchany being liberated: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577025320393199616
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Oct 3, 2022 21:00
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Young Freud posted:This sounds good of military standardization and cohesion: I think the bigger issue here isn't standardization but budget. It's more of center dumping responsibility on regions while centralizing all the cash yet again.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:02
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Young Freud posted:This sounds good of military standardization and cohesion: I am the enormous erection some CIA agent woke up with this morning. Off loading military procurement to various regional civilian administrations will certainly not have any undesired outcomes (for Russia.)
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Oct 3, 2022 21:11
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Young Freud posted:This sounds good of military standardization and cohesion: That's a bit...huh. The idea of Russia splintering has been wildly speculative at best due to Russia's centralization, but this feels like the first step to decentralization and I wouldn't really have expected it of Putin. It feels like he's shoveling literally everything he's done over his time in power into the furnace to feed the war. Starting to think he might actually care enough about Ukraine to be willing to pull down the pillars of his regime if there's a chance of cementing himself as "the one who brought Ukraine back to Russia." OddObserver posted:I think the bigger issue here isn't standardization but budget. It's more of center dumping responsibility on regions while centralizing all the cash yet again. Yeah this feels like a sign of weakness - "We can't afford it, so you guys figure it out instead." Historically this tends to go wrong in, say, China, though - the imperial center stops being able to afford to maintain its projects by itself so it devolves responsibility onto the regional administrations, who naturally step up their own administrative and tax resources in order to meet such responsibilities which incidentally starts giving them enough of a power base to defy an already-weakened imperial center, which when it all reaches critical mass implodes through lack of authority with which to pressure the regional warlords. It's still a very tempting step for any emperor who wants to complete X project or needs to defend against Y threat but can't fund it properly.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:11
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smug n stuff posted:Second Russian source on Dudchany being liberated: quote is not edit: Rybar thinks that only half of Dudchany is controlled by AFU, that RF blew up a bridge in the middle of the city to stop the advance. Who knows. https://t.me/rybar/39708
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Oct 3, 2022 21:14
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Question for native Russian speakers: it seems like increasingly I see русский used where I would expect российский (like in the above post, "русская армия," or at Zmiinyi Island "русский военный корабль"). Has that distinction always been mostly in really formal/academic language, or is there an ideological element that's relatively new? Like authorities are intentionally conflating Russian ethnicity with Russian statehood.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:16
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smug n stuff posted:quote is not edit: Rybar thinks that only half of Dudchany is controlled by AFU, that RF blew up a bridge in the middle of the city to stop the advance. Who knows. https://t.me/rybar/39708  
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Oct 3, 2022 21:22
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Tomn posted:Yeah this feels like a sign of weakness - "We can't afford it, so you guys figure it out instead." Cool that the Russian military has the same mentality as a small business tyrant. Are they doing the, "Can you work for us for free? It will be a great resume builder" yet?
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Oct 3, 2022 21:26
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Dwesa posted:This "bridge"? It looks like a small earthen dam, I am not sure how would they blow it up If they had a lot of time to prepare I could see them making a line of charges to at least turn a strip of that bridge into a small river. But ah, pretty sure they did not have time nor consider that they would have to prepare bridges this deep into their "territory" against enemy advance. Hubris and corruption are a delicious combo. Some very specific force movements spotted in Russia: https://archive.ph/iBerF Image only shows what looks like regular logistics equipment getting trained over, and I'm betting it's likely that the equipment and personnel are being dug up to help stem the bleeding, not to start anything spicy. That said, they know the West is watching these specific forces like hawks, and it could be another more physical form of sabre rattling, similar to blowing up their own gas pipes.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:31
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cgeq posted:Cool that the Russian military has the same mentality as a small business tyrant. Are they doing the, "Can you work for us for free? It will be a great resume builder" yet? That's basically Russian conscription minus the great for the resume part.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:35
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smug n stuff posted:quote is not edit: Rybar thinks that only half of Dudchany is controlled by AFU, that RF blew up a bridge in the middle of the city to stop the advance. Who knows. https://t.me/rybar/39708 I think a map of the location in context helps here: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577033916946345984 I don't think anyone could call this a city. Can you even call it a town? Seems more like a large village. No matter what you call it, this is not a significant bridge and will not take the Ukrainians long to bypass even if it is destroyed
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Oct 3, 2022 21:38
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Neorxenawang posted:Question for native Russian speakers: it seems like increasingly I see русский used where I would expect российский (like in the above post, "русская армия," or at Zmiinyi Island "русский военный корабль"). Has that distinction always been mostly in really formal/academic language, or is there an ideological element that's relatively new? Like authorities are intentionally conflating Russian ethnicity with Russian statehood. Ideological and imperial Русский is often meant as ethnically Russian, while российский is always "of the russian state". Russian nationalists loathe the words российский and россиянин while for every non-white person in Russia русский as an adjective before unusual things is a red flag. Think English vs British, sort of, how the former frequently has nationalistic connotations.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:39
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Tiny Timbs posted:This is the approach Biden is trying to implement: It makes sense on one level but I think this sort of thing is only going to make any stab in the back mood in Russia even worse
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Oct 3, 2022 21:42
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Chalks posted:I think a map of the location in context helps here: It's officially a village with about 2k residents.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:50
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In the Hungarian parliament, Fidesz has blocked a motion to vote on ratifying Sweden's and Finland's NATO membership. As for Turkey, some commentators say progress before the elections in mid-2023 looks unlikely.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:53
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^^^ Ahhhh not at all surprised but what a bunch of scumbags What I've learned from watching too many Practical Engineering videos is that if they blew a hole in it and there's any amount of current flowing, the water could wash the whole thing out. That said from the streetview photos it doesn't seem to be much of a dam.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:54
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Dwesa posted:This "bridge"? It looks like a small earthen dam, I am not sure how would they blow it up While most of the length of that is a solid dam, there is a short section where it's a bridge, on the southwestern side. If they blew up that and could direct fire on it, while the section they'd need to bridge is short I can't imagine it would be fun for the Ukrainians.
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Oct 3, 2022 21:58
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Neorxenawang posted:Question for native Russian speakers: it seems like increasingly I see русский used where I would expect российский (like in the above post, "русская армия," or at Zmiinyi Island "русский военный корабль"). Has that distinction always been mostly in really formal/academic language, or is there an ideological element that's relatively new? Like authorities are intentionally conflating Russian ethnicity with Russian statehood. The linguistic distinction is about as common and clear as a distinction between a brick and an apple, meaning that the only shift is with people who find it imperative to put an accent on Russian ethnicity for a reason, which is going to be highly dependent on what sort of people you’re hearing.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:01
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gay picnic defence posted:It makes sense on one level but I think this sort of thing is only going to make any stab in the back mood in Russia even worse I realize that a persecution complex isn't exactly logical, but what stab in the back? It's not like the US was a bosom buddy of Russia or Russian oligarchs before this. This is more of a stab in the front really, and less escalatory than what they've been accusing the West in general of already. And to be frank, even if Putin was overthrown I'm not entirely sure I'd trust any successor or cabal of oligarchs to agree to any significant reparations without enormous foot-dragging anyways.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:07
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d64 posted:In the Hungarian parliament, Fidesz has blocked a motion to vote on ratifying Sweden's and Finland's NATO membership. What’re the options from here on out? Is this gonna cost Hungary anything?
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Oct 3, 2022 22:14
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Tomn posted:I realize that a persecution complex isn't exactly logical, but what stab in the back? It's not like the US was a bosom buddy of Russia or Russian oligarchs before this. This is more of a stab in the front really, and less escalatory than what they've been accusing the West in general of already. And to be frank, even if Putin was overthrown I'm not entirely sure I'd trust any successor or cabal of oligarchs to agree to any significant reparations without enormous foot-dragging anyways. If Russia is going to have any shot at being a functioning state with any semblance of democracy, the first thing to take off the table are reparations.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:37
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MassiveSky posted:If Russia is going to have any shot at being a functioning state with any semblance of democracy, the first thing to take off the table are reparations. Yeah, reparations are dumb, regardless of who is the winner or loser.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:41
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Paladinus posted:TV analysis snip This may be one of the best posts I've ever read on the forums. Thank you for your service so we don't have to watch it too
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Oct 3, 2022 22:50
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cgeq posted:Cool that the Russian military has the same mentality as a small business tyrant. Are they doing the, "Can you work for us for free? It will be a great resume builder" yet? You can get paid in exposure. To HIMARS. Also to the elements. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 3, 2022 22:50
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/ This is just a spooky headline and/or Russia posturing by moving poo poo around right? Or something about a scheduled test for Poseidon.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:53
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SourKraut posted:Yeah, reparations are dumb, regardless of who is the winner or loser. Nah, they should be forced to pay lots of reparations, also what is left of their industry should be looted and moved to museums in the West. Germany clearly proofs that this is the way to get stable democracies, you just sometimes have to try two times.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:58
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Szmitten posted:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/ "Yes" Nothing about this is out of character for Russia, which has continuously run a strategic weapon testing program in a provocative way.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:59
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Rinkles posted:What’re the options from here on out? Is this gonna cost Hungary anything? You could just as well ask, what do they gain with this. Not much, it's pretty much theatrics for their internal purposes.
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Oct 3, 2022 22:59
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I imagine Orban and Erdogan will try to wring (more) concessions from the rest of the bloc before finally giving the thumbs up. They're good at this sort of thing.
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Oct 3, 2022 23:01
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Szmitten posted:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/ I posted the non-paywall version of this article a bit above. My best guess is posturing, and I believe the Poseidon test is actually happening in the Arctic. That sub can't enter the Black Sea, it was last spotted at its base in the Arctic and Turkey has closed the Bosporus to the Russian navy. I suppose a nuclear test nowhere near Ukraine would be the "safest" while still biggest nuclear sabre rattle Putin could do. But I don't see that doing anything but dump more economic woes on Putin with precisely 0% chance of helping the battles in Ukraine. And it would greatly jeopardize the little support he has left for that nothing gain, and I think even Putin knows that. They'll launch the torpedo without a warhead is my bet. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Oct 3, 2022 |
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Oct 3, 2022 23:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The last time they did a drive on the proxy regions, in 2014, they went around capitals entirely and just started severing their connections with Russia. This time that’s likely the play to go for again, since the Kyiv-facing areas of them have 8 years of pillboxes and mines now, but I don’t know if marching into those areas is a short term tactical priority for Ukraine. My gut says no. I would suppose the Svatovo --> Starobilsk direction is the priority right now since that cuts the last rail line through Luhansk, would put Severodonetsk in a more difficult position and just generally opens up a lot of opportunities.
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Oct 3, 2022 23:07
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