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Rockker posted:Is there anything air based that can be used? If Russia is launching missiles from jets in Belarus or Russia and hitting as far away as Kyiv or Zaporizhzia, can HARMs be used similarly at the same distances? Sucks that Ukraine has to just take it and can only reciprocate mostly with land based stuff like HIMARS HARMs are small, and really good for the much more important job of suppressing enemy air defenses. Blowing up a SAM or tracking radar is a whole lot better, war-wise, than putting a 150 pound warhead sized hole in a bridge. Can't fix a radar installation with 2x4's and plywood. The Kinzhals Russians are launching from Mig-31's are fuckin' big missiles with 1000lb warheads.
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Oct 10, 2022 18:52
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Feliday Melody posted:I imagine that Ukraine firing a US delivered missile into Russia and hitting a hospital or school in Russia would be a diplomatic disaster for the US. I really don't think so. They have a good control of the info space, no reason the public would ever need to know and it can be countered by other well placed agitation ops.
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Oct 10, 2022 18:54
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 Any deets on what missile type this is and what it's doing there?
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Oct 10, 2022 18:55
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DandyLion posted:This is what I can't figure out regarding the relative line in the sand drawn by allies weapon supply: If russia is bombing indiscriminately why should Ukraine not have the ability to eliminate those assets on russian soil? Short of complete national collapse, russia will be terror bombing Ukraine forever now, and the US and other allies are just hunkey dorey with all that?... The whole world is on thin ice right now about whether a nuclear power can lose a conventional war against an army supplied by another nuclear power without it escalating to nuclear war. Every new step taken, especially ones in the direction of using weapons provided by one nuclear power within the borders of another, is accompanied by a lot of anxiety about whether it could put us on an escalation spiral nobody can stop. What you're asking makes perfect sense in isolation, but in the full context it's obvious why everyone's hoping there's another way to win. There's never been a war quite like this, so nobody knows what a stable equilibrium afterward will look like or exactly how to get there.
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Oct 10, 2022 18:55
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Feliday Melody posted:I imagine that Ukraine firing a US delivered missile into Russia and hitting a hospital or school in Russia would be a diplomatic disaster for the US. This is why Ukraine has not taken credit officially for any of the strikes in border regions (like the famous helicopter raid in Belgorod or the recent explosion on airfield in Kaluga) Dolash posted:What you're asking makes perfect sense in isolation, but in the full context it's obvious why everyone's hoping there's another way to win. There's never been a war quite like this, so nobody knows what a stable equilibrium afterward will look like or exactly how to get there. Vietnam was supported by USSR, a nuclear power China was also nuclear, I think, when it attempted their invasion into Vietnam fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Oct 10, 2022 |
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Oct 10, 2022 18:55
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^^^ Uh, that has happened multiple times before. Inner Light posted:
Probably some sort of MLRS booster stage?
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Oct 10, 2022 18:56
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Inner Light posted:
Looks like what it is doing there is being a traffic calming bollard made of welded steel pipe with a bunch of posters glued to it. No part of that was ever a missile.
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Oct 10, 2022 18:58
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It's an MLRS booster stage that seems to be some sort of art exhibition?
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Oct 10, 2022 19:00
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Inner Light posted:
Dolash posted:The whole world is on thin ice right now about whether a nuclear power can lose a conventional war against an army supplied by another nuclear power without it escalating to nuclear war. Every new step taken, especially ones in the direction of using weapons provided by one nuclear power within the borders of another, is accompanied by a lot of anxiety about whether it could put us on an escalation spiral nobody can stop. Putin can push the button at any moment if he wanted anyway.
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Oct 10, 2022 19:00
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Inner Light posted:
Looks like a delivery vehicle for cluster bomblets
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Oct 10, 2022 19:01
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Chalks posted:Is it possible that Ukraine timed the bridge attack to come just before an expected Russian escalation to hide in its shadow to some extent? If it really is true that this attack was coming to matter what, Ukraine seems to have timed the bridge strike to avoid retaliation entirely. The Kerch bridge attack required a bit of timing of multiple parts. The train needs to be slowed down or stopped and the truck needs to be loaded and driving across the bridge while the train is still on there. If that were easy to arrange in a week, I'd expect the security bureau to have done it sooner. If they're as ruthless as the FSB, they may even have calculated the expected retaliatory missile strikes as being a benefit to the Ukrainian war effort.
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Oct 10, 2022 19:09
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Inner Light posted:
Propelling part of BM-30 Smerch rocket, I think.
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Oct 10, 2022 19:14
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mobby_6kl posted:
But he hasn't. Hence the thin ice - where is the line where he would? And could a new escalation set off a series of tit-for-tat exhanges that will take us there. To try and avoid Clancychat by hewing closer to the original question, the reason NATO isn't just handing over cruise missiles so Ukraine can retaliate at targets within Russia is because it would look a hell of a lot like war between NATO and Russia, even moreso than the current situation, and potentially raises the stakes for Russia in the war from "humiliation and isolation" to "survival of the regime". If there's another way, like providing Ukraine with more defensive options or more conventional war-winning weapons, that's preferable. How we stop Russia from just lobbing missiles over the border forever if it gets driven out is probably through a diplomatic solution. Be an isolated pariah state forever or else come to the table. Keeping the war going for pure vanity when they're completely driven out is probably a bigger danger to the regime than negotiating would be.
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Oct 10, 2022 19:17
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nimby posted:The Kerch bridge attack required a bit of timing of multiple parts. The train needs to be slowed down or stopped and the truck needs to be loaded and driving across the bridge while the train is still on there. If that were easy to arrange in a week, I'd expect the security bureau to have done it sooner. If they're as ruthless as the FSB, they may even have calculated the expected retaliatory missile strikes as being a benefit to the Ukrainian war effort. I'm not saying that they arranged the truck bomb when they discovered the Russian attack was being planned - however, if they had the plan for the bomb in place they probably have a fair bit of flexibility for exactly when they pull the trigger. Fuel trains likely cross the bridge regularly. They claim they've known about these strikes being planned weeks ago. If this is true, then they're not in response to the bridge attack at all, and timing the bridge attack to happen just before a big strike that you already know about has a lot of benifits. You basically completely avoid retaliation.
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Oct 10, 2022 19:18
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DandyLion posted:This is what I can't figure out regarding the relative line in the sand drawn by allies weapon supply: If russia is bombing indiscriminately why should Ukraine not have the ability to eliminate those assets on russian soil? Short of complete national collapse, russia will be terror bombing Ukraine forever now, and the US and other allies are just hunkey dorey with all that?... The B-2/GBU-57 combo could end this war in an afternoon by targeting decision-makers and is eligible for Lend-Lease. I feel like if Putin had a working nuke he would've used it by now. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 10, 2022 19:19
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slurm posted:The B-2/GBU-57 combo could end this war in an afternoon by targeting decision-makers and is eligible for Lend-Lease. I feel like if Putin had a working nuke he would've used it by now. This is legitimately nuts as a claim. Putin doesn't want to nuke Ukraine because it at best makes Russia the target of the entire world and at worst ends humanity as we know it. It isn't because they have 0 working nuclear weapons
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Oct 10, 2022 19:25
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slurm posted:The B-2/GBU-57 combo could end this war in an afternoon by targeting decision-makers and is eligible for Lend-Lease. I feel like if Putin had a working nuke he would've used it by now. See, the scary thing is that guys who think like this are now taking command of Russia's armed forces in Ukraine. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 10, 2022 19:31
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:Ukraine do have long range missiles, but they don't have very many of them and they tend to use them extremely sparingly for that reason. They definitely don't have enough to launch waves of them the way Russia can, regardless of the type of target. And just a few missiles is easier to shoot down with anti-air missiles than if you fire a big salvo including some decoys. Although firing a couple of cruise missiles followed by HARMs might be an interesting exercise...
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Oct 10, 2022 19:37
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I am a thousand miles away from this conflict, so I have no intimate knowledge, beyond the fact that a whole group of refugees from Ukraine are now living in my town, and they are very welcome and supported. A Ukrainian lady posted in a Facebook group that she was living in a local hotel, but her son had a disability that required regular massage and the hotel bed wasn't suitable, so did anyone had a massage table. By the end of the day, she had a table and a solid offer of massage supplies to help her son  I said 6 months ago that Ukraines 'public persona,' for want of a better term was exceptionally good, and it remains the same today. From every source, we see a stoical, funny, brave, witty, and extremely socially aware people who seem to fundamentally understand how important it is for them to be seen as Europeans. Since this horrible war was started by Russia , I've talked to a good few refugees from Ukraine in my town, some pretty old, many young. We mostly talk about our dogs, because both we and they have cute pups. They are nice, kindly, familiar people. Ukrainians really blend in with Irish people. We have a lot of shared historical contexts with being starved intentionally and eradicated as a culture by a bitchy formerly powerful ex-colonial neighbour.
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Oct 10, 2022 19:53
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Dolash posted:To try and avoid Clancychat by hewing closer to the original question, the reason NATO isn't just handing over cruise missiles so Ukraine can retaliate at targets within Russia is because it would look a hell of a lot like war between NATO and Russia, even moreso than the current situation, and potentially raises the stakes for Russia in the war from "humiliation and isolation" to "survival of the regime". If there's another way, like providing Ukraine with more defensive options or more conventional war-winning weapons, that's preferable. Keeping armament restrictions in place also makes sense in terms of deterrence, since you can signal a willingness to remove them were Russia ever to escalate past the nuclear threshold, thus negating whatever negligible battlefield advantage doing so might gain them and still keep NATO from becoming an active belligerent. Pookah posted:I am a thousand miles away from this conflict, so I have no intimate knowledge, beyond the fact that a whole group of refugees from Ukraine are now living in my town, and they are very welcome and supported. A Ukrainian lady posted in a Facebook group that she was living in a local hotel, but her son had a disability that required regular massage and the hotel bed wasn't suitable, so did anyone had a massage table. By the end of the day, she had a table and a solid offer of massage supplies to help her son 
PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Oct 10, 2022 |
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Oct 10, 2022 19:56
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Inner Light posted:
This is on the square in Kharkiv where the city government building was bombed. I assume it's something to do with that.
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Oct 10, 2022 20:00
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https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1579544919794159618 Looks like some of the wheels are basically welded to the tracks. Dunno how long this will take to fix though, once the carriages are removed the tracks themselves probably won't take long to replace.
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Oct 10, 2022 20:25
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train tracks are relatively easy to fix. the bridge structure itself is the question
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Oct 10, 2022 20:36
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I thought they already pushed a train car across. Was that a fake video or??
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Oct 10, 2022 20:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I thought they already pushed a train car across. Was that a fake video or?? Other track.
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Oct 10, 2022 20:41
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There's a parallel set of tracks that was mostly undamaged
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Oct 10, 2022 20:41
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Dolash posted:Keeping the war going for pure vanity when they're completely driven out is probably a bigger danger to the regime than negotiating would be. I sure hope you're right but it doesn't feel likely given putin's proclivities for one-upmanship. I can't see a scenario where putin is still in power and not petulantly lobbing as much ordinance as russia has left daily until he finally dies. Is it likely that the 'tit-for-tat' response to an endgame post-expulsion scenario is to finally supply Ukraine with high precision long range missiles capable of hitting military targets with very low variance for failure or collateral damage? Its just such a weird concept to me that this war could be over but russia continues killing Ukranian civilians with impunity like the whole country is the Gaza Strip and the best the world can come up with is to only provide incomplete defensive measures.
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Oct 10, 2022 20:57
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Slo-Tek posted:HARMs are small, and really good for the much more important job of suppressing enemy air defenses. Blowing up a SAM or tracking radar is a whole lot better, war-wise, than putting a 150 pound warhead sized hole in a bridge. Can't fix a radar installation with 2x4's and plywood. Ukraine needs something like the Kinzhal then. If Russia can keep hitting targets risk free, the scales will eventually tip their way due to attrition
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Oct 10, 2022 21:07
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I don't think Russia has a ton of Khinzhals available and they are limited to specific firing platforms. They're not going to win the war with them.
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Oct 10, 2022 21:14
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https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/10/glonass-k-17/ Russia's GPS equivalent just got a little more accurate. Kinda surprised that they've gotten in 13 launches this year; I mean I figure the launch vehicles were probably in the pipeline before the war but you'd think sanctions would start biting into their launch cadence soon. Also of interest is that two of their launch sites are in areas that are either hostile to them or getting chillier--french guiana and Baikonur in Kazakhstan, respectively.
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Oct 10, 2022 21:27
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OAquinas posted:Kinda surprised that they've gotten in 13 launches this year; I mean I figure the launch vehicles were probably in the pipeline before the war but you'd think sanctions would start biting into their launch cadence soon. The sanctions have actually kind of helped. There were a bunch of rockets nearly or fully built, intended for flying western commercial sats. All those contracts fell through, so the rockets were freed up for military launches.
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Oct 10, 2022 21:33
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DandyLion posted:I sure hope you're right but it doesn't feel likely given putin's proclivities for one-upmanship. After seeing how hard of a shock to Russia's system just losing the rest of Kharkiv oblast was, it's hard to believe the government and military will just keep trucking along unchanged through losing Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and all of Crimea. Future-casting that far ahead means moving through the utter defeat and destruction of the conventional Russian army, and who knows what else would break along the way to that. That's probably the better answer to how Ukraine and NATO retaliate against Russian cruise missile attacks, rather than cruise missiles of their own - continue the campaign against the Russian army as it is, and let gains there do damage to the regime and its goals.
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Oct 10, 2022 21:34
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OAquinas posted:https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/10/glonass-k-17/ They are using a rocket family originally designed in 1950s. Probably not too many Western components there (though most recent variants do have newer electronics).
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Oct 10, 2022 21:39
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I think longer term Ukraine gets something like Iron Dome going. Either the Israelis cave and sell it to them, or the US and Western Europe build their own and sell/give it to them. It's clearly a defensive capability countries need. South Korea and Taiwan would also benefit, for example. Patriot is great, but it's very expensive and protects a relatively small area. (It also protects against a bunch of threats that aren't 50-year-old missile technology, which drives up its cost.) Another capability would be long-range anti-aircraft platforms. I don't know how far out the Tu bombers are launching missiles, but if it's less than 100km from the front line there are modern systems such as NASAMs that--with the right missile--might be able to keep them out of launch range.
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Oct 10, 2022 21:53
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Ynglaur posted:I think longer term Ukraine gets something like Iron Dome going. Either the Israelis cave and sell it to them, or the US and Western Europe build their own and sell/give it to them. It's clearly a defensive capability countries need. South Korea and Taiwan would also benefit, for example. Patriot is great, but it's very expensive and protects a relatively small area. (It also protects against a bunch of threats that aren't 50-year-old missile technology, which drives up its cost.) Iron dome is a non-starter due to obvious enormous difference in the territory that Ukrainian AA needs to cover.
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Oct 10, 2022 21:59
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Ynglaur posted:Another capability would be long-range anti-aircraft platforms. I don't know how far out the Tu bombers are launching missiles, but if it's less than 100km from the front line there are modern systems such as NASAMs that--with the right missile--might be able to keep them out of launch range. Kinzhal's range is in the thousands - not hundreds - of kilometers.
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Oct 10, 2022 22:04
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Thanks for the replies. Is Khinzal an intermediate-range ballistic missile, then, under the various treaties covering such?
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Oct 10, 2022 22:34
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Ynglaur posted:Thanks for the replies. Is Khinzal an intermediate-range ballistic missile, then, under the various treaties covering such? INF treaty only applies to land-based missiles. The Kh-47M2 is air launched only. But anyway, the INF treaty has been suspended by both US and Russia, so it's not super relevant at this point in time.
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Oct 10, 2022 22:48
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Ynglaur posted:
They often launch near Caspian sea, which is on order of 1400km....
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Oct 10, 2022 22:54
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Ynglaur posted:Thanks for the replies. Is Khinzal an intermediate-range ballistic missile, then, under the various treaties covering such? It’s an air launched version of the Iskander missile so it has a longer range than the already considerable range of the Iskander. They haven’t used many of them so they either didn’t have many to start with or they’re something they’re holding back for a particularly important target.
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