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Koos Group posted:Before it ends, one thing I've been wondering, and unable to find discussion of it, is what the problem is with having legit referenda in the occupied territory other than Crimea. Is it because there's a pro-Russia lean in the citizens who haven't fled, so it wouldn't reflect the will of those who actually live there normally? Or fears that occupiers would find a way to take part? The problem is everything under the word "occupied" ranging from "all the videos of Russian troops conducting door to door 'voting' at gunpoint" to "these videos that keep coming out of russian troops dumping bodies in mass graves" to "somehow all these former Ukrainians got forcibly relocated to kamchatka and can't vote in Ukraine any more". You can't have a fair election in a war zone while war crimes are ongoing. The only, the *only* , way to have a fair independence referendum would be to rewind time to January and do it then instead of the invasion. Going forward . . .Russia would have to fully abandon the occupied territory, repatriate the deported, repair all the destroyed infrastructure, and resurrect all the dead.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:00
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Koos Group posted:Before it ends, one thing I've been wondering, and unable to find discussion of it, is what the problem is with having legit referenda in the occupied territory other than Crimea. Is it because there's a pro-Russia lean in the citizens who haven't fled, so it wouldn't reflect the will of those who actually live there normally? Or fears that occupiers would find a way to take part? I think there isn't much discussion on it because how do you have a legit referenda in a place you are occupying with force? How would people feel comfortable voting how they actually feel and registering that vote with a force that has shown it will kill them at a moments notice for little to no reason?
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Oct 14, 2022 19:00
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Koos Group posted:Before it ends, one thing I've been wondering, and unable to find discussion of it, is what the problem is with having legit referenda in the occupied territory other than Crimea. Is it because there's a pro-Russia lean in the citizens who haven't fled, so it wouldn't reflect the will of those who actually live there normally? Or fears that occupiers would find a way to take part? They're active war zones, Russia is unlikely to allow legit referenda, and they wouldn't have legal meaning since Ukrainian and international law don't allow those regions (or Crimea) to secede unilaterally.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:01
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Koos Group posted:I assume in this hypothetical there would be an armistice. An armstice doesn't stop the torture chambers.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:02
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You also haveto consider all the people who clearly do not want to live under Russia/Russian proxies fleeing those areas meaning you either have a horribly biased vote, or convince these people to move back to have an actual fair vote. It's a bullshit idea that's done purely as a way to try and make Russia's actions look legitimate or idiots who doesn't realize how absurdly biased it is of an idea.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:03
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That's what I figured, thank you.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:05
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ChaseSP posted:You also haveto consider all the people who clearly do not want to live under Russia/Russian proxies fleeing those areas meaning you either have a horribly biased vote, or convince these people to move back to have an actual fair vote. It's a bullshit idea that's done purely as a way to try and make Russia's actions look legitimate or idiots who doesn't realize how absurdly biased it is of an idea. Putin's quick recipe for a perfectly fair election: Kill everyone who didn't vote for you in the last election Next election, 99% support! Very fair! Democracy!
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Oct 14, 2022 19:05
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Koos Group posted:I assume in this hypothetical there would be an armistice. Only way that could possibly be considered objective is if Ukraine takes everything back. Russia already did an obviously rigged AND at gun-point referendum, so they can never be trusted to do another one if they still occupy the territory. While it'd probably create interesting data, I can hazard a guess in that instance that, having the territory reclaimed, sentiment would be massively in favor of Ukraine.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:05
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It feels fundamentally illegitimate to take over a chunk of territory by force and say "Now, we will administer a referendum to see if our new subjects are OK with us being in this territory." (e: What if they say no? It's not even discussed, because everyone knows what the result of such a referendum will be.) It's farcical on top of illegitimate when the bounds of said territory are being still redefined from day to day by active fighting and many of the residents will have fled or be in hiding. If Russia wanted to make some kind of case for Ukrainian territories joining Russia via self-determination, they should have done it via dialogue with Ukraine instead of biting off chunks from 2014 until now. I don't see how at this point anyone can presume that Russia is engaging in that conversation in good faith. Eletriarnation fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 19:09
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There's the additional issue from an international deterrence/MAD angle that if Russia is allowed to profit from a war of aggression it will encourage further wars of aggression by a nuclear power. That can't be ratified by later referendums; it doesn't matter whether it ends up democratic or not.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:13
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In case anyone was wondering if pressure from right wing Russian war bloggers was going to force Russia to fix their problems and start being competent, check out this weird trick to make all your decisions universally praised https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580985029118685185
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Oct 14, 2022 19:26
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Eletriarnation posted:If Russia wanted to make some kind of case for Ukrainian territories joining Russia via self-determination, they should have done it via dialogue with Ukraine instead of biting off chunks from 2014 until now. I don't see how at this point anyone can presume that Russia is engaging in that conversation in good faith. That is an interesting hypothetical. What sort of negotiations could have feasibly led to Ukraine peaceably allowing self-determination for its territories? It's difficult for me to imagine given recent history, but I'm not an expert on the region.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:26
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Koos Group posted:That is an interesting hypothetical. What sort of negotiations could have feasibly led to Ukraine peaceably allowing self-determination for its territories? It's difficult for me to imagine given recent history, but I'm not an expert on the region. E: some good news about the bridge, they want it repaired by July https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63255611 Assuming nothing else unfortunate happens until then of course mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 19:35 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 19:31
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Chalks posted:In case anyone was wondering if pressure from right wing Russian war bloggers was going to force Russia to fix their problems and start being competent, check out this weird trick to make all your decisions universally praised Would be nice to see Girkin behind bars, to get a taste of what's coming for him in The Hague.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:48
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This is what Minsk 2 foundered over. Ukraine's position was 'we want to take back control of the border first and then let the millions of displaced people from the Donbass return home, then we'll have a referendum' and Russia's position was 'no you can't do it that way around because we've already printed all the completed ballots, look we can just tell you what the referendum result is now if you would like'.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:48
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Koos Group posted:That is an interesting hypothetical. What sort of negotiations could have feasibly led to Ukraine peaceably allowing self-determination for its territories? It's difficult for me to imagine given recent history, but I'm not an expert on the region. No offense, but you seem to be approaching this topic from the perspective that Russia has an inalienable right to demand that parts of Ukraine be given a chance to align with/be annexed by Russia. In this hypothetical, if Russia was unable to convince Ukraine to hold these referendums (which you're correct, there's no reason why the Ukrainian government would agree to that without some sort of catastrophic level uprising by the population), then I guess they can politically lobby to get another puppet elected, which didn't end up working so well for them when the previous puppet gave Ukrainians the middle finger, try to pile on economic/cultural/diplomatic/saber-rattling pressure over time, which is how China has been trying to deal with Taiwan over decades, or realize that they can't accomplish this particular goal. Nobody should be giving Russia a "well, Ukraine didn't let us steamroll them, so we had no choice to invade" free pass.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:49
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Koos Group posted:That is an interesting hypothetical. What sort of negotiations could have feasibly led to Ukraine peaceably allowing self-determination for its territories? It's difficult for me to imagine given recent history, but I'm not an expert on the region. If Russia had made a request to explore a referendum together in 2013 or whatever and been completely rebuffed, they could at least say "well, we tried to figure out what the people actually want but Ukraine wasn't interested." That wouldn't justify a war, but it would be a mitigating factor in trying to understand the motives involved. The fact that they've only brought up this demand for a referendum now that the outcome is irretrievably tainted indicates how much they care about the will of the public.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:49
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This should be a trite point, but Putin doesn't care about the democratic legitimacy of his own regime in Russia beyond the theatrics and being a pressure valve for discontent, he obviously does not care about national self-determination anywhere else in the world.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:53
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The idea that annexing regions to a genocidal dictatorship is somehow "national self-determination" is absurd.
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Oct 14, 2022 19:59
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Koos Group posted:I assume in this hypothetical there would be an armistice. One of the biggest problems with this hypothetical is the sheer scale of destruction in the occupied areas at this point. A huge percentage of the pre-war population has fled and basically can't come back even if the shooting stops because their houses don't exist anymore, or no longer have access to heat or running water. (Ukraine has been warning people to leave even the recently recaptured areas because there's no way to restore gas heating service to all of it in time for winter.) Many of the businesses that employ people have closed down or been destroyed, the school systems are destroyed, etc. Even in the best case it would take years to get back to a "normal" peacetime population.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:00
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Koos Group posted:That is an interesting hypothetical. What sort of negotiations could have feasibly led to Ukraine peaceably allowing self-determination for its territories? It's difficult for me to imagine given recent history, but I'm not an expert on the region. Imagine Mexico proposing to the United States that we should enter into negotiations with them over the ownership of Texas, and as part of that, demanding a referendum be held county-by-county, obviously they should run these votes. Also several years ago they forcibly annexed El Paso and everything west of the Pecos River in 2014, have been infiltrating ununiformed contract military into Brownsville, Laredo, and Del Rio but these are actually local home-grown patriots not invaders at all, and all of this is justified by the fact that a large proportion of citizens in these areas speak Spanish and originally "came from Mexico", Texas was at one time part of Mexico, it is an intrusion on Mexico's careful balance with the US to allow the US to position military assets in Texas, etc. Texas isn't Real, it's just a territory. Also in 2008 Mexico invaded New Mexico and installed a puppet government, they're pretty sure the same thing will happen when they invade Texas, and they're pretty annoyed that the pro-Texas governor has been replaced by a more DC-oriented governor who is really just a comedian, I guess Al Franken. Every Mexican election of the last 50 years has been an incredible landslide victory for its totally-not-a-dictator-for-life President/Prime Minister (it's swapped once lol) but their demands to run this referendum themselves are totally reasonable because obviously one run by Texas itself would be corrupt and unfair. This is a terrible analogy but I've already spent too much time thinking about it so please ignore that
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Oct 14, 2022 20:11
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Texas is a much better analogy if you just consider how it became part of the US in the first place. Anyway, effects in other places affected by the Russian empire: https://mobile.twitter.com/tkassenova/status/1580987105328893952 Edit: and a diff perspective: https://mobile.twitter.com/maximananyev/status/1576829978770972673
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Oct 14, 2022 20:15
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Koos Group posted:Before it ends, one thing I've been wondering, and unable to find discussion of it, is what the problem is with having legit referenda in the occupied territory other than Crimea. Is it because there's a pro-Russia lean in the citizens who haven't fled, so it wouldn't reflect the will of those who actually live there normally? Or fears that occupiers would find a way to take part? Koos Group posted:I assume in this hypothetical there would be an armistice. In addition to what has been said already, about dudes stanning a dictator hanging out with their rifles everywhere being a bit of a bad vibe for a fair referendum, and dealing with the matter of displaced voters, in this hypothetical a major set of questions would be around the authority to conduct such a referendum. Russian authorities have a track record of running rigged elections domestically, for one. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Oct 14, 2022 |
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Oct 14, 2022 20:20
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I mean if you want to know what a fair democratic independence referendum looks like, the best example I can think of is Brexit . . .and even that was deeply influenced by Russian influence campaigns. Maybe Irish or Scottish independence? Either way I think you probably need at least a generation of peace first, possibly more.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:23
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Interesting developments that could shed some light on the state of Russia's security aparatus https://twitter.com/balticjam/status/1580993234800869376 Also Russia are unlikely to be repeating Monday's 80 missile bombardment because they are almost out of missiles https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1580930099947659264 When they try a more restrained approach, however: https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1580997289778507777
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Oct 14, 2022 20:24
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Quixzlizx posted:No offense, but you seem to be approaching this topic from the perspective that Russia has an inalienable right to demand that parts of Ukraine be given a chance to align with/be annexed by Russia. No offense taken. To make my perspective clear, I believe that Crimea should be part of Russia on the basis of self-determination. I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part due to it being bloodless, which is often not the case in conflicts resulting from badly drawn borders (cf. Kurdistan or the Yugoslav republics). However, this was not due to any noble intentions of Russia, as has been made abundantly clear by the conflict this thread is about. They engaged in a land grab with no regard for the democratic will of the regions involved, and caused inconceivable human suffering in the process. It retroactively showed that their actions in Crimea were only part of raw imperial ambition, and has more than undone any good they accomplished. The hypothetical of how else Russia might have gained self-determination for Ukrainian territories that needed it (of which I'm not convinced there were any other than Crimea) without going against Ukraine's will and violating international law is interesting to me because of its implications about national sovereignty, international bargaining and regional politics, but ultimately has no bearing on whether the current conflict is wrong or could have been avoided.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:27
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It wasn't bloodless there was a war. It's just that the fighting was in the Donbass.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:30
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Koos Group posted:No offense taken. To make my perspective clear, I believe that Crimea should be part of Russia on the basis of self-determination. I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part due to it being bloodless, which is often not the case in conflicts resulting from badly drawn borders (cf. Kurdistan or the Yugoslav republics). However, this was not due to any noble intentions of Russia, as has been made abundantly clear by the conflict this thread is about. They engaged in a land grab with no regard for the democratic will of the regions involved, and caused inconceivable human suffering in the process. It retroactively showed that their actions in Crimea were only part of raw imperial ambition, and has more than undone any good they accomplished. Self-determination is not a valid reason. That is what the Confederate States tried in 1861. Lincoln correctly saw that it could not be allowed to stand, or states would vote themselves in or out of the union whenever it was convenient, and thus the nation as a whole would be destroyed. Similarly, the breakaway Ukrainian areas need the agreement of the Ukrainian government before they can be recognized as independent. Secession has to be a mutual agreement. Crimea should be Ukrainian because by international law, that is the nation it belongs to.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:33
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Koos Group posted:No offense taken. To make my perspective clear, I believe that Crimea should be part of Russia on the basis of self-determination. I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part due to it being bloodless, which is often not the case in conflicts resulting from badly drawn borders (cf. Kurdistan or the Yugoslav republics). So you, don't give a poo poo about the indigenous population getting repressed by settler-colonists from the empire that ran multiple rounds of genocide on them previously, got it. And no, it wasn't bloodless.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:33
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Even before the invasion...No no the older invasion not the newest one...the idea that Crimea could have had a fair referendum flies in the face of reality. Russia was bribing, assassinating and little-green-man-ing their way to the result they wanted and giving no fucks about fairness or international laws. They're a mafia state kleptocracy and treat everything else in the world that way. They never had legitimacy on this issue, it's all been manufactured bullshit.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:37
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Eletriarnation posted:I also don't have the background to say, and it seems reasonable to expect that any given nation would be unenthusiastic about such a request. Still, openly attempting to exhaust peaceful methods of solving the problem seems like basic good form if you don't want to be accused of starting wars purely for the sake of conquest. This seems like the crux of the point--surely any negotiations about self-determination would be between the government of Ukraine and its citizens? It's not really clear to me why Russia would get to be involved at that stage, sovereign states don't get to just negotiate with the people of another sovereign state for territory. It's hard to say what a theoretical peaceful separatist movement might have looked like, since in the space of ~3 months they went from barely existing as an organized political force to seizing government buildings with financial, military, and organizational support from Russia. Koos Group posted:No offense taken. To make my perspective clear, I believe that Crimea should be part of Russia on the basis of self-determination. I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part due to it being bloodless, which is often not the case in conflicts resulting from badly drawn borders (cf. Kurdistan or the Yugoslav republics). However, this was not due to any noble intentions of Russia, as has been made abundantly clear by the conflict this thread is about. They engaged in a land grab with no regard for the democratic will of the regions involved, and caused inconceivable human suffering in the process. It retroactively showed that their actions in Crimea were only part of raw imperial ambition, and has more than undone any good they accomplished. Crimea doesn't really have an easy answer since it's not really viable without getting water diverted from Ukraine, so it seems like a Northern Ireland scenario where the logical result of self-determination leads to an unsustainable situation (I suspect this is a big part of how Crimea wound up being part of Ukraine in the first place.)
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Oct 14, 2022 20:42
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Deteriorata posted:Secession has to be a mutual agreement. Crimea should be Ukrainian because by international law, that is the nation it belongs to. What international law? After the fall of the Soviet Union Crimea was an independent republic like all the others. That is until 1994/5 when Ukraine took it by force and did one of those same "questionable" referendums.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:48
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Alchenar posted:It wasn't bloodless there was a war. It's just that the fighting was in the Donbass. OddObserver posted:And no, it wasn't bloodless. That is true and I stand corrected. Deteriorata posted:Self-determination is not a valid reason. That is what the Confederate States tried in 1861. Lincoln correctly saw that it could not be allowed to stand, or states would vote themselves in or out of the union whenever it was convenient, and thus the nation as a whole would be destroyed. Similarly, the breakaway Ukrainian areas need the agreement of the Ukrainian government before they can be recognized as independent. That is generally the argument for prioritizing territorial integrity/sovereignty over self-determination in international law, that allowing absolute self-determination would open a pandora's box. I personally don't subscribe to it, because there are groups that have good reason to secede but still don't want to such as Hawaii, and even in those that do the support is never unanimous, and historically since the birth of nationalism in the 19th century people have favored remaining part of their actual nation rather than gaming the system. Speaking of which, states would not have been able to unilaterally vote themselves back into the Union if full self-determination were allowed in the US. Only remove themselves. And the rest of the union would be understandably hesitant to let them back in. OddObserver posted:So you, don't give a poo poo about the indigenous population getting repressed by settler-colonists from the empire that ran multiple rounds of genocide on them previously, got it. I believe the Tatars should also be able to self-determine but that's a separate issue from the Crimeans who want to be Russian.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:53
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Koos Group posted:To make my perspective clear, I believe that Crimea should be part of Russia on the basis of self-determination. I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part due to it being bloodless, which is often not the case in conflicts resulting from badly drawn borders (cf. Kurdistan or the Yugoslav republics). However, this was not due to any noble intentions of Russia, as has been made abundantly clear by the conflict this thread is about. They engaged in a land grab with no regard for the democratic will of the regions involved, and caused inconceivable human suffering in the process. WTF Perhaps you should better clarify how you view this as self-determination, as your argument has some flaws.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:54
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spacetoaster posted:What international law? After the fall of the Soviet Union Crimea was an independent republic like all the others. That is until 1994/5 when Ukraine took it by force and did one of those same "questionable" referendums. Uh, this is nonsense; Crimea was one of the regions of Ukraine voting for independence in 1991 --- with bare majority, unlike every other region which had overwhelming majority. There was indeed tension between it and Ukrainian government later --- hence it having autonomy!
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Oct 14, 2022 20:55
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Crow Buddy posted:WTF That's due to polling and the famous referendum indicating the majority of people in Crimea wanted to be part of Russia. For the full argument on that, see my posts in the Eastern Europe thread.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:57
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spacetoaster posted:What international law? After the fall of the Soviet Union Crimea was an independent republic like all the others. That is until 1994/5 when Ukraine took it by force and did one of those same "questionable" referendums. Crimea was never an independent state, after the USSR fell it was a "republic" of Ukraine in the same sense that it is currently a republic of Russia.
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Oct 14, 2022 20:59
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Koos Group posted:
Not when they're being annexed into a regime that represses them, to satisfy settlers in their land who are upset they may have to follow government of those they consider their racial inferior. Looking forward towards your future endorsement of Israeli annexation of West Bank.
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Oct 14, 2022 21:00
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Koos Group posted:That's due to polling and the famous referendum indicating the majority of people in Crimea wanted to be part of Russia. For the full argument on that, see my posts in the Eastern Europe thread. I will not. Post it here or take your question to the EE thread. Presumably this would be the referendum that happened shortly after the little green men appeared?
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Oct 14, 2022 21:00
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Crow Buddy posted:I will not. Post it here or take your question to the EE thread. I would recommend reading my posts in context in the Eastern European thread because Cinci is responding to them with a good execution of the other side of the argument. However, here is a quote for your convenience. Koos Group posted:Ah, I hadn't read your post with the polls, and apologize for engaging without having done so. I was not familiar with the polls showing non-majority support for secession in 2011 and 2014. However, I'm seeing more polls that have the contrary conclusion in the years before the referendum, in the days before the referendum, and following the referendum. Here they are in chronological order.
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Oct 14, 2022 21:08
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