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Koos Group posted:True as well, but what I'm saying is that Ukraine's claim to it is illegitimate also. So it comes down to which principle one prioritizes more highly. Is Crimea voting in favor of the Ukrainian independence referendum not a basis for a legitimate claim?
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Oct 15, 2022 01:00
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Koos Group posted:You're correct that with how international law is currently interpreted, Ukraine would be justified in retaking Crimea. But self-determination would absolutely have something to do with it because Crimea's would be violated, and self-determination is also a guiding principle in international law as well as, more importantly, an arguable human right or consequence of human rights. At this point, "self-determination" in Crimea is meaningless because of the ethnic cleansing that Russia has been doing. People who wanted to stay with Ukraine have been removed, while Russian sympathizers have been moved in. Arguing in favor of Crimean self-determination now just makes you another Russian propagandist. It is the only argument in Russia's favor, and it has been deliberately tainted by Russian actions. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 15, 2022 01:05
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^^This tooKoos Group posted:I also believe the annexation was a magnificent move on Russia's part I want to circle back to this because just...what? Like you seem to have this wierd thing where you are fixated on self determination... but Russia just taking Crimea was rad and you see no contradiction? What
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Oct 15, 2022 01:13
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Koos Group posted:You're correct that with how international law is currently interpreted, Ukraine would be justified in retaking Crimea. But self-determination would absolutely have something to do with it because Crimea's would be violated, and self-determination is also a guiding principle in international law as well as, more importantly, an arguable human right or consequence of human rights. You keep using self-determination of a occupied region as the lynchpin to this line of thought. I don't think you know what it means.
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Oct 15, 2022 01:16
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Charlotte Hornets posted:At the summit of the CIS Council of Heads of State, Emomali Rahmon personally addressed the President of Russia. Big yikes. Saying the quiet part out loud.
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Oct 15, 2022 01:18
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Koos Group posted:But self-determination would absolutely have something to do with it because Crimea's would be violated As has been pointed out repeatedly, this has nothing to do with self-determination at this point.
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Oct 15, 2022 01:19
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Arzachel posted:What about the self-determination of the Crimean people who fled the invasion or got ethnically cleansed in the 8 years since I'd actually be curious what the numbers on those are, but I suspect the answer is "gently caress if we know, partly because there's no reason for the Russian administration to evaluate or accurately report those numbers". Maybe some human rights org did a study? It's been almost a decade. also to my understanding very few Tatars emigrated and their approval of Russia is very low; they're not exactly a majority, due to Russian actions over the last couple centuries, which is why they're getting hosed with yet again one assumes you were talking more about non-tatar anti-russian crimean Ukrainians, and I don't really know beans about that demographic Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Oct 15, 2022 |
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Oct 15, 2022 01:22
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Crow Buddy posted:You keep using self-determination of a occupied region as the lynchpin to this line of thought. I don't think you know what it means. Self-determination is when remnants of an imperial center's settler-colonial program can get the empire to reabsorb them in areas of local concentration so they don't have to deal with the natives who they perceive to be racially inferior being in charge, including when they use militias and regular army of that imperial center to ethnically cleanse other regions to extend this process further, isn't it? ... Personally, though, I think self-determination requires presence of a democracy that guarantees basic civil rights and is incompatible with a dictatorship based on cultural genocide, but what do I know? Edit: unrelated... or, on second thought, very much related: Boris Galerkin posted:Big yikes. Saying the quiet part out loud. (Ukrainians are in a weird spot in the Sovietesque racial hierarchy since an assimilated Ukrainian would be considered practically as good as a Russian, but one who speaks Ukrainian would be viewed as a primitive illiterate peasant rube. This explains a lot about this conflict. See also the link I posted earlier about attitudes in Kazakhstan). OddObserver fucked around with this message at 01:36 on Oct 15, 2022 |
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Oct 15, 2022 01:24
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I'd actually be curious what the numbers on those are, but I suspect the answer is "gently caress if we know, partly because there's no reason for the Russian administration to evaluate or accurately report those numbers". Maybe some human rights org did a study? It's been almost a decade. My personal experience having a home in Crimea (parents and siblings still live there) is that the Tatars were coming back, slowly, before the Russian vote was held. There were small Tatar villages around the area, mosques, and schools. Once Russia took over, folks that were thinking of moving to Crimea cancelled those plans.
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Oct 15, 2022 01:33
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James Garfield posted:Is Crimea voting in favor of the Ukrainian independence referendum not a basis for a legitimate claim? I would say it's not as relevant as the later referendum, since it was decades earlier and not about the same issue. But that referendum as a whole would certainly serve as one of many bases for how wrong what Russia's doing currently is. sean10mm posted:I want to circle back to this because just...what? Yes, as I tried to express in the post I cross-quoted from EE, the indications we have seem to show that Crimea wanted to be part of Russia. Deteriorata posted:At this point, "self-determination" in Crimea is meaningless because of the ethnic cleansing that Russia has been doing. People who wanted to stay with Ukraine have been removed, while Russian sympathizers have been moved in. Ethnic cleansing does make the matter more complicated, as saying that a majority must own a country even if they invaded encourages settler colonialism. Though that isn't the case with Crimea since it appears to have wanted to join Russia before that occurred (assuming the ethnic cleansing you describe happened after the annexation). Regardless, your point about it being tainted by Russia's actions in the interim is well taken and I've been trying to emphasize that.
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Oct 15, 2022 01:36
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spacetoaster posted:My personal experience having a home in Crimea (parents and siblings still live there) is that the Tatars were coming back, slowly, before the Russian vote was held. There were small Tatar villages around the area, mosques, and schools. oh that's interesting, and a bummer
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Oct 15, 2022 01:49
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Koos Group posted:I would say it's not as relevant as the later referendum, since it was decades earlier and not about the same issue. But that referendum as a whole would certainly serve as one of many bases for how wrong what Russia's doing currently is. u know that crimea voted along with the rest of ukraine for independence from the soviet union, right. and by a significant margin, too
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Oct 15, 2022 01:59
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like they already had a referenda on being part of russia, and they decided not to be. now that russia has spent a decade forcibly occupying them, hunting down and disappearing even mildly pro-Ukraine folks and driving out the people who lived there, the suggestion is that the first referenda doesn't count and they need a new one?
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Oct 15, 2022 02:07
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Herstory Begins Now posted:like they already had a referenda on being part of russia, and they decided not to be. now that russia has spent a decade forcibly occupying them, hunting down and disappearing even mildly pro-Ukraine folks and driving out the people who lived there, the suggestion is that the first referenda doesn't count and they need a new one? No no no, the suggestion is the first referendum doesn't count, but various polls including most post annexation are what should be respected.
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Oct 15, 2022 02:18
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Herstory Begins Now posted:u know that crimea voted along with the rest of ukraine for independence from the soviet union, right. and by a significant margin, too Yes, that's what James Garfield was referring to. Herstory Begins Now posted:like they already had a referenda on being part of russia, and they decided not to be. now that russia has spent a decade forcibly occupying them, hunting down and disappearing even mildly pro-Ukraine folks and driving out the people who lived there, the suggestion is that the first referenda doesn't count and they need a new one? Not from me. I was satisfied with the explanations for why there shouldn't be further referenda when I first posted.
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Oct 15, 2022 02:20
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Maidan and the responsive invasion also weren't the first action by Russia in this direction. The prior static nature of Ukraine, including the disposition of Crimea, was the product of generations of much more proximate and direct propaganda and influence and russification activity than anything the US gets.
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Oct 15, 2022 02:26
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forcibly invading an area and disappearing a significant amount of the original population is not normally how you signal to an area that you care about its self determination it's how you signal that your intention is to forcibly annex them regardless of what they want
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Oct 15, 2022 02:40
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I'd actually be curious what the numbers on those are, but I suspect the answer is "gently caress if we know, partly because there's no reason for the Russian administration to evaluate or accurately report those numbers". Maybe some human rights org did a study? It's been almost a decade. It’s difficult to come by those numbers, since Ukrainian government didn’t have a functioning IDP database until 2016, 2 years after the annexation. In terms of officially registered IDPs from the non-government controlled areas of Donbas and Crimea, as of February 15, 2022, the number was 1.5 million, with the estimate for unregistered IDPs being in the hundreds of thousands. Of the known number, I haven’t seen clean stats by source region, but the figure thrown around the most for Crimea is 100k. Based on profiling, roughly 1/4 of that should be Crimean Tatars, but for them there’s a frequently cited figure of 50k refugees on the mainland, 1/6th of their known population in Crimea, so if we extend the profiling ratios to that, we are at about 200k displaced from Crimea. 2014 population figure was 2.2 million, meaning that 10% of the population (a group anywhere between 30 and 60% the size of the estimated real turnout of the “referendum”), left predominantly before Russia formalised the annexation. An additional number of Crimeans did leave the peninsula in the subsequent years, by means of fleeing to Ukraine, getting deported by the Russian state, or relocating somewhere else due to the rough local economy in the initial years. Based on what I know of the circumstances of a deported friend of mine, I’d estimate the deported population to be around ~50k. Let’s assume then that the total loss of Crimean pre-annexation population is 350k, handwaving away mortality and whatnot. That leaves us at 1.9 million expected population. According to Russian government, the peninsula has 2.4 million permanent residents (tax registration address in Crimea), whereas the most recent Ukrainian estimates I’ve seen place the population of the peninsula at 3.1 million. With either of these two numbers, the entire thing on the whole is a carbon copy of USSR’s Russification of the Baltics in the 40s. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Oct 15, 2022 |
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Oct 15, 2022 02:50
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thanks for the numbers post e: also looks like i was terribly wrong on the tatars Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Oct 15, 2022 |
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Oct 15, 2022 02:52
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I'd actually be curious what the numbers on those are, but I suspect the answer is "gently caress if we know, partly because there's no reason for the Russian administration to evaluate or accurately report those numbers". Maybe some human rights org did a study? It's been almost a decade. For connoisseurs of Ukraine's historical complexity: https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-crimea-disconnect?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
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Oct 15, 2022 02:59
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I mean if you want to know what a fair democratic independence referendum looks like, the best example I can think of is Brexit . . .and even that was deeply influenced by Russian influence campaigns. Maybe Irish or Scottish independence? Montenegro, maybe
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Oct 15, 2022 03:10
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What if administration of Crimea could be handed off to a neutral third party that also is indigenous to it (Greece) as part of a peace deal? Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.
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Oct 15, 2022 03:10
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adebisi lives posted:What if administration of Crimea could be handed off to a neutral third party that also is indigenous to it (Greece) as part of a peace deal? Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. That would require one to credulously believe that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea for humanitarian reasons to protect the population from the Ukrainian Nazis in Kyiv, and not for the colonialist reason that they wanted it for themselves.
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Oct 15, 2022 03:22
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adebisi lives posted:What if administration of Crimea could be handed off to a neutral third party that also is indigenous to it (Greece) as part of a peace deal? Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. Technically Turkey is supposed to have it. Plus the Crimean Tatars have a much better claim than the Greeks.
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Oct 15, 2022 03:43
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Shall we go back to Scythia? Crimea is part of Ukraine. If Ukraine wants to liberate it from Russian occupation, we should support them doing so. Russia's success at genocide there should not change that point of view, if for no other reason than we all have an incentive to dissuade tyrants from doing such evil in the world.
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Oct 15, 2022 03:46
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National self determination is, at least 70% of the time, a racist lie. The only exception is when there is an actual genocide being threatened. As the status of Russian speakers was fine and essentially unchanged since 1990, despite the propaganda, it does not really matter what anyone there thought.
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Oct 15, 2022 03:55
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the popes toes posted:For connoisseurs of Ukraine's historical complexity: while this is an excellent essay i cannot restrain myself from a quibble, and in fairness, this is dnd quote:In my office I have a printed edition of a kitab, a Crimean Tatar prayer book from the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, using Arabic script, but in a Polish-Belarusian language with Turkish phrases. Its first words, enticingly, are "This is the key to heaven." It bespeaks a coherent Crimean Tatar culture that endured for centuries extended well beyond the borders of the Crimean Khanate itself. kitab literally means book  otoh it's a very solid point outside of the amusing linguistic error
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Oct 15, 2022 03:58
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Intro and excerpts as I decide etc blah. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3189340/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-ukraine/ Highlights/Other: Other -There was a separate brief with the Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, and she was asked every which way what the deal is with SpaceX and demands for payments, and all she could really say was that the DOD is talking to SpaceX regarding Starlink. About something. For some reason. And that Starlink service in Ukraine has been funded by some private people at least in part. And maybe the US government, but didn't know for sure. And that she hadn't seen all of Elon Musk's tweets. It was weird and can be read here if you like https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3189495/sabrina-singh-deputy-pentagon-press-secretary-holds-a-press-briefing/ Latest PDA: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3189571/725-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ SMO: -Russia's use of precision-guided munitionis (PGMs) has been indiscriminate and imprecise. "Most" of the recent strikes struck civilians and/or civilian infrastructure. Some of this is the result of indiscriminate targeting. Other times Russia appears deliberately to target civilians, with the specific examples given of electricity, bridges, etc. -Kharkiv: Lines are mostly static, and Russia is digging in. Not zero movement but "really limited in terms of movement this week." -Bakhmut: Russia has made "very small" gains around Bakhmut. Sometimes Ukraine counterattacks and retakes land. "All of those attacks on both sides are coming with pretty high impact in terms of the employment of artillery and the losses to the sides who are making those advances." -Zaporizhzhia: No real movement of the line. "We have seen artillery that's landed in and around the Zaporizhzhia area, but nothing that's caused us a great concern over the week. " -Kherson: Ukraine has gained from the north toward Kherson. Not a lot of advancement but "some" on the central approach to Kherson. Russia has established new lines in Kherson defense since this started six weeks ago, but will need to make a decision on how/'where to defend along the Kherson axis. Neither side really making a move at the edge of Kherson city itself. -Of ~80 missiles fired by Russia in the first 24 hours of retaliation over Kerch strait bridge [My note: SMO did not confirm that Ukraine attacked Kerch Strait bridge, though refers to Russia retaliation in response to bridge attack], roughly half reported intercepted. Ukraine likely firing more than one SAM in many of those defensive engagements, which is part of why Ukraine requires air defense support. -SMO does not comment on whether or not the Ukrainian assessment of Russia's remaining stock of PGMs is accurate. Says it is telling that Russia is now relying on Iranian one-way attack UAS. -SMO on Starlink: It is very useful to be able to communicate. Did not want to address questions on Musk and his recent comments -The press had a lot of questions about air defense, but the SMO today wasn't terribly knowledgeable on air defense specifics and wasn't sharing what are probably still ongoing somewhat sensitive discussions of who can/will/might provide what and when quote:SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Thanks, (inaudible). Hi, everybody. How are you? This is -- this is different for me, so I'll get to see you all roll your eyes when I -- when I give you the answer that you may not want, as opposed to just doing it on the phone.
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Oct 15, 2022 04:00
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e: nm
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Oct 15, 2022 04:04
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GreyjoyBastard posted:while this is an excellent essay i cannot restrain myself from a quibble, and in fairness, this is dnd I also found it strange that Snyder claimed Putin has nothing to say about the future, when he himself calls Putin a fascist.
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Oct 15, 2022 04:05
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GreyjoyBastard posted:
Aka the "Tatar Source" adebisi lives posted:What if administration of Crimea could be handed off to a neutral third party that also is indigenous to it (Greece) as part of a peace deal? Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. This sounds like a proposal that nobody in the conflict would like and relies on the idea that compromise with a solidly bad faith actor is the "perfect" to the merely "good" of resisting their invasion and driving them off
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Oct 15, 2022 04:14
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Sorry guys Ukraine is now called Amazon Prime and they all speak Finnish now. Such is the price of peace.
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Oct 15, 2022 04:18
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Koos Group posted:I believe the Tatars should also be able to self-determine but that's a separate issue from the Crimeans who want to be Russian. I'm a loving idiot with a stupid brain, so you'll have to bear with me, but I can't quite puzzle out what this would actually entail. None of the plausible candidates I can come up with sound particularly good for Crimean Tatars.
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Oct 15, 2022 04:24
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I’m about to Prime Same Day Shipping this conversation into Leper’s.
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Oct 15, 2022 04:31
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DrankSinatra posted:I'm a loving idiot with a stupid brain, so you'll have to bear with me, but I can't quite puzzle out what this would actually entail. None of the plausible candidates I can come up with sound particularly good for Crimean Tatars. I mean this is sorta the flaw with the idea of national self determination as a principle. It only works with big identities that are capable of creating homogeneity. The non-philosophical answer though is Ukraine. They've adopted, pragmatically but genuinely, a extremely pro-Crimean Tatar policy after the annexation.
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Oct 15, 2022 04:34
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GreyjoyBastard posted:while this is an excellent essay i cannot restrain myself from a quibble, and in fairness, this is dnd 'In my office I have a printed edition of a book, a Crimean Tatar prayer book...' That seems fine to me. It's a printed book and not a manuscript. Implying that it's one of many that were made from a press, which reinforces his point. Or are you saying that the word kitab can only ever refer to a printed book?
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Oct 15, 2022 05:15
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Family Values posted:'In my office I have a printed edition of a book, a Crimean Tatar prayer book...' eh, not worth squabbling about i suppose
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Oct 15, 2022 05:19
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the popes toes posted:For connoisseurs of Ukraine's historical complexity: This is a very good article and I think everyone should read it. I like the point at the end where I think the author really hits it on the head about how empty Putin’s imperialism is, and thus partly why it’s failing; that it’s imperialism for imperialism’s sake, or maybe just imperialism for Vladimir Putin’s sake. The Soviet Union could at least try to justify its imperialism with a grand narrative of spreading Communism. The US justified and justifies its imperialist actions by claiming to stand for the Western liberal order or more shallowly to at least be anti-Communist. Putin’s Russia doesn’t have any grand narrative for why it ought to be conquering its neighbor. Maybe if he lived 200 years ago he could claim he was doing it all in the name of Christianity, but nobody buys that kind of stuff now. But aside from some lovely lies about Nazis that only fool his domestic audience because he controls the media there, Putin doesn’t appear to have any ideological narrative to propagandize why he ought to conquer half of Ukraine, other than that it would make Russia look bigger on a map. And I really do think that’s a big part of why it’s all failing.
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Oct 15, 2022 06:34
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As practically 90%+ wars in history have demonstrated, you really don't need an ideology beyond nationalism to justify a war to your citizens
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Oct 15, 2022 06:54
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I honestly think that Putin didn't ever think that he'd have to do anything more than do a typical mobster-style shakeup on the geopolitical scale, but that failed and now he has to scrounge up some of the lingering ethnonationalist lore off the ground and try to shape that into anything coherent.
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Oct 15, 2022 07:08
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