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Rinkles posted:“There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict.” ??? What doubt was there? Well, doesn't Israel have a lot of people doing Aaliyah (immigrating) from Russia to Israel to escape? Pretty much continually? Who then become Israeli citizens and thus influence Israeli opinion quite a bit? Not saying it justifies such an odd statement either but I would assume it has some relevance.
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Oct 16, 2022 14:32
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I looked him up and he’s “just”(?) the minister of the “Ministry of Diaspora Affairs”. I know jack all about Israel’s government but on a quick read this seems to be the equivalent of a US cabinet position. I have no idea what this specific ministry does and the Wikipedia page is quite bare but it doesn’t sound like an important one that matters (in the sense of weight given). In other words it doesn’t sound like an official position given by someone who can make decisions re: defense.
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Oct 16, 2022 14:46
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Boris Galerkin posted:I looked him up and he’s “just”(?) the minister of the “Ministry of Diaspora Affairs”. I know jack all about Israel’s government but on a quick read this seems to be the equivalent of a US cabinet position. I have no idea what this specific ministry does and the Wikipedia page is quite bare but it doesn’t sound like an important one that matters (in the sense of weight given). A more functional name would be “ministry of propaganda”. For parsing purposes, I'm equivocating the guy to a deputy minister of foreign affairs.
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Oct 16, 2022 14:55
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"Funny" how Iran is shipping missiles with apparently 700km range, but Uncle Sam can't.
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Oct 16, 2022 14:56
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OddObserver posted:Also they have yet another election coming up, don't they? Yes, in November. It seems unlikely that the caretaker government will make any big moves in this regard, but I have little doubt that Israel will look into ways of confronting Iran by proxy in Ukraine just like they do everywhere.
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Oct 16, 2022 14:57
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Boris Galerkin posted:I looked him up and he’s “just”(?) the minister of the “Ministry of Diaspora Affairs”. I know jack all about Israel’s government but on a quick read this seems to be the equivalent of a US cabinet position. I have no idea what this specific ministry does and the Wikipedia page is quite bare but it doesn’t sound like an important one that matters (in the sense of weight given). Given that there is a sizeable Jewish diaspora in Russia and their well-being has been seen as one of the reasons Israel did try to stay somewhat neutral on the war (other reasons being Russias role in Syria), his position in the cabinet is actually highly significant in the context of this statement.
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Oct 16, 2022 15:04
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If you want to play some fifth dimensional chess, a weakened Russia leads to a power vacuum in the area which Iran could possibly be looking to fill in some of the -stan’s, and the longer this war drags on the more weakened Russia will become. If Russia wins or doesn’t collapse they’ll remember their good Iranian friends. It could also serve the purpose of wringing more concessions from the US who want Iran back in the deal Obama set up by giving Iran something to offer to give up (supplying missiles to Russia) in exchange for whatever they’re after. Israel would absolutely want to test their defenses against Iranian missiles in a kind of no risk proxy war. Why they haven’t supplied any already may be because of worries they’d be captured by Russia and fall into the wrong hands (traded to Iran) but the temptation of Iranian missile targets is possibly enough to tip them over the edge (and I imagine they’re getting a lot of pressure from the US to step up and do so as well).
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Oct 16, 2022 15:11
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Well, doesn't Israel have a lot of people doing Aaliyah (immigrating) from Russia to Israel to escape? Pretty much continually? Who then become Israeli citizens and thus influence Israeli opinion quite a bit? Yes, the biggest chunk was in the late 80's and 90's IIRC but there are over a million Russians in Israel, a sizeable chunk of their population nowadays. So much so that there os Russian-language media and politicians run ads and billboards in Russian.
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Oct 16, 2022 15:17
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ought ten posted:I imagine Israel’s MoD and defense industry are happy for a chance to field test their systems against Iranian weapons. To be fair, I'd assume they already have field-tested them against Iranian equipment. Iran provides a lot of support organizations hostile to Israel.
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Oct 16, 2022 15:22
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I'd like to see more sourcing on this, but it's worrisome: https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1581641130521034753
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Oct 16, 2022 15:37
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coelomate posted:I'd like to see more sourcing on this, but it's worrisome: This is one of the less reliable Bloomberg Terminal reposting accounts, with a flaky record in the past, regarding Ukraine.
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Oct 16, 2022 15:45
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If I were a gambling man, I would bet on this all being part of a messaging strategy from the Russians. Messaging designed to reinforce the idea of a joint Russian/Belarusian attack being prepared from Belarus, thereby tying down Ukrainian troops on Ukraine's northern borders, preventing them from reinforcing the offensive on the southwestern front.
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Oct 16, 2022 15:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is one of the less reliable Bloomberg Terminal reposting accounts, with a flaky record in the past, regarding Ukraine. There's been a lot of posts this week that I'm sure are intentionally being vague and alarmist that are actually referencing the deluge of "citizens in Ukraine please leave" messages from various countries that were issued last week after the missile strikes on civilian areas in cities.
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Oct 16, 2022 15:55
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https://mobile.twitter.com/notabanderite/status/1581659962950184962 Non-pro tip: if you insult people's faith shortly after drafting them into a war they don't want to fight, don't give them a loaded machine gun immediately after without clearing the premises. Edit: warning: the insider story (the original source) has a photo with bodies in it. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 15:59
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coelomate posted:I'd like to see more sourcing on this, but it's worrisome:
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Oct 16, 2022 16:04
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From what I've read those Iranian missiles are more accurate that what Russia has been using. They've even got more range than ATACMS. Ukraine needs PrSM at this point.
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Oct 16, 2022 17:33
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Rockker posted:From what I've read those Iranian missiles are more accurate that what Russia has been using. They've even got more range than ATACMS. Ukraine needs PrSM at this point. I don’t get why Iran gets to supply top of the line missiles to Russia to attack civilian targets with but Ukraine constantly gets denied the weapons it needs to swiftly end this war because of some weird “oh no we mustn’t escalate or cross a red line”. We have cross what like 5 red lines since Feb 24 and Russia hasn’t done gently caress all. Why do we continue to delay this poo poo? We should be training Ukrainians to use F-16s. Right now We should be setting up the logistics for maintenance and sustainment of Bradley’s and M1 Abrams, right now. Ukraine should have long range ground to ground missiles, right now. And finally we should be working full speed and effort to give them the 30 or so mobile brigades they need. The west has everything it needs to do this. The equipment is there gathering dust. If america had to dip into those reserves something absolutely horrible would have had to happen. It’s just common sense that these weapons get put to good use or the work begins to establish the training and logistics framework to make it work.
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Oct 16, 2022 17:41
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If the Iranians are giving Russians weapons that can match or exceed HIMARs range, then the Ukrainians have a serious problem.
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Oct 16, 2022 17:48
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:If the Iranians are giving Russians weapons that can match or exceed HIMARs range, then the Ukrainians have a serious problem. Russians already have plenty of weapons with longer range than HIMARS, HIMARS is no wunderwaffe; it's just both the weapons and the people using them are crap. The Iranian replacements are likely to be even worse.
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Oct 16, 2022 17:52
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Kraftwerk posted:I don’t get why Iran gets to supply top of the line missiles to Russia to attack civilian targets with but Ukraine constantly gets denied the weapons it needs to swiftly end this war because of some weird “oh no we mustn’t escalate or cross a red line”. The reason these weapons are held back isn't out of some sense of parity. It's in order to prevent Russia from taking certain escalatory actions that the west really wants to prevent and its not just the "we're worried that Russia will escalate if we do X" side of things that's stated as the official reason, but also because this poo poo cuts both ways. Russia knows that the west is holding back ATACMS, aircraft, tanks etc and they know Ukrainian forces aren't going to cross the border into Russia proper at the behest of the west, but they know all that stuff is theoretically possible and being held over them to prevent them from doing anything insane. Not arguing that more shouldn't be being done, but there are clear reasons to boil the frog. Also, lets not overstate the significance of this. Russia has always had long range strike capabilities. Sure, now after they've performed over 2000 strikes against Ukraine they're running low, but lets not pretend that Russia getting these will change things dramatically. Chalks fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 18:12
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What escalatory actions. Name them.
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Oct 16, 2022 18:16
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Chalks posted:The reason these weapons are held back isn't out of some sense of parity. It's in order to prevent Russia from taking certain escalatory actions that the west really wants to prevent and its not just the "we're worried that Russia will escalate if we do X" side of things that's stated as the official reason, but also because this poo poo cuts both ways. Russia knows that the west is holding back ATACMS, aircraft, tanks etc and they know Ukrainian forces aren't going to cross the border into Russia proper at the behest of the west, but they know all that stuff is theoretically possible and being held over them to prevent them from doing anything insane. Not arguing that more shouldn't be being done, but there are clear reasons to boil the frog. The main issue with ATACMs, as I understand it, is that they're out of production and its successor isn't going to be available until 2024. The US is keeping what remains for its own needs and just doesn't have a lot to supply to Ukraine.
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Oct 16, 2022 18:23
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OddObserver posted:What escalatory actions. Name them. Besides the obvious, after the pipeline strikes people have wondered about the potential for more significant Russian attacks against western infrastructure or other covert actions against European nations, for example. Prior to their recent indiscriminate attacks against civilian infrastructure Ukraine had received minimal anti-air from the west, now they'll be getting a lot more. It's not clear if Russia has any competent strategists left, but if you were one and you looked at the effect of this recent strike the obvious conclusion would be that it was a really bad move. "Don't do poo poo like that again" might be your advice. You want every decision being viewed through that lens - what might the west do in response to this? Having many cards left to play is a good thing.
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Oct 16, 2022 18:29
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The loser escalates a conflict, not the winner. The point of escalation is to change the conflict into one you can win. Ukraine escalating a ground war they're winning into a bigger conflict doesn't make strategic sense. They need missile defenses to further lock Russia into an untenable ground war.
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Oct 16, 2022 18:34
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Chalks posted:Besides the obvious, after the pipeline strikes people have wondered about the potential for more significant Russian attacks against western infrastructure or other covert actions against European nations, for example. But if Ukraine had received proper AA months ago, like they should've, hundreds of civilians and billions worth of infrastructure would've been intact. So what exactly have we achieved with this strategy? Deteriorata posted:The main issue with ATACMs, as I understand it, is that they're out of production and its successor isn't going to be available until 2024. mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 18:35
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Rockker posted:From what I've read those Iranian missiles are more accurate that what Russia has been using. They've even got more range than ATACMS. Ukraine needs PrSM at this point. They're similar to Iskanders in capability. They have longer range and are less accurate, but it doesn't really change anything on the ground other than Russia having more SRBMs.
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Oct 16, 2022 18:35
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saratoga posted:The loser escalates a conflict, not the winner. The point of escalation is to change the conflict into one you can win. Ukraine escalating a ground war they're winning into a bigger conflict doesn't make strategic sense. They need missile defenses to further lock Russia into an untenable ground war. I'm not sure this is always the case - it's possible, for instance, for the winner to escalate a localized conflict when they see that the loser is weaker than they imagined and they could potentially make even bigger gains if they push the limits and expand the remit of the war. Which is potentially relevant in the case of Ukraine if, having discovered that Russia is weaker than most had imagined, they start considering the possibility of, say, retaking Crimea. (Though if you want to argue this point in detail we start to get into issues of defining what escalation actually is and means, and whether changing wargoals or the expansion of the battle zone counts as escalation. Not really intending to argue semantics, just noting that there are reasons for the current winner to consider kicking things up a notch.)
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Oct 16, 2022 18:47
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Tomn posted:(Though if you want to argue this point in detail we start to get into issues of defining what escalation actually is and means, and whether changing wargoals or the expansion of the battle zone counts as escalation. Not really intending to argue semantics, just noting that there are reasons for the current winner to consider kicking things up a notch.) Yeah I would be hesitant to consider changes in objectives as escalation, especially when they're driven by events on the ground. Otherwise Russia has been steadily de-escalating the war as their ability to pursue military aims has steadily shrunk. In reality things like the pullback from Kiev represented a realization that they'd have to try another approach rather than a real desire to de-escalate the conflict. A better definition would be a change in the scope or operation of the battle zone. So for example, targeting shipping, using tactical nuclear warheads or blowing up pipelines would be an escalation, but scaling up or down the objectives of an invasion in response to degree of resistance would not. When people talk about long range missiles (with the exception of maybe very specialized ones to target Crimea or large bridges) they're really saying that they want to take the fight into Russia. That doesn't seem like a sound plan compared to just winning the war they have.
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Oct 16, 2022 19:25
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saratoga posted:
What specialized long range missiles are for targeting "Crimea" or the Kerch bridge? Anything with long enough legs to do that can also take the fight to Russia. HIMARS and HARM are examples of things that can already "take the fight to Russia" a pretty fair distance across the long border Ukraine shares with it.
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Oct 16, 2022 19:44
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Warbadger posted:What specialized long range missiles are for targeting "Crimea" or the Kerch bridge? Anything with long enough legs to do that can also take the fight to Russia. HIMARS and HARM are examples of things that can already "take the fight to Russia" a pretty fair distance across the long border Ukraine shares with it. In fact it looks like Ukraine might've HARMed something in russia today: https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1581566558437969922?s=20&t=nrY1jRUz8Z4lNw9cWS5tRw https://twitter.com/MichaelYartys/status/1581574673975779328
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Oct 16, 2022 19:54
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And HARMs have been used against targets in Russia. Of course, it's only useful against radar, not against terror bombing MLRS or facilities used to support the invasion.
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Oct 16, 2022 19:56
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saratoga posted:When people talk about long range missiles (with the exception of maybe very specialized ones to target Crimea or large bridges) they're really saying that they want to take the fight into Russia. That doesn't seem like a sound plan compared to just winning the war they have. Taking the fight into Russia would be beneficial to Ukraine, in the sense that it's better to destroy Russian airfields, missile launchers and such before they fire long range missiles to kill Ukrainians. When Russia invaded Ukraine and went on bombing Ukrainian cities with weapon systems stationed in Russia, it gave Ukraine the permission to hit them back.
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Oct 16, 2022 19:59
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Latest Perun vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCEzEVwOwS4&t=10s Air defence in Ukraine, covering planes/choppers, drones & SAMs.
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Oct 16, 2022 20:03
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Well, doesn't Israel have a lot of people doing Aaliyah (immigrating) from Russia to Israel to escape? Pretty much continually? Who then become Israeli citizens and thus influence Israeli opinion quite a bit? If anything, Ministry of Interior policy towards Ukrainian refugees is far more coherent and begrudgingly liberal than that towards Russians trying to escape mobilization.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:06
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Something might be happening in the Kherson direction https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1581646788162772994 https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1581485643359653889 https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1581736539335585794 If this is real, the first reliable details about it will probably be from Russian sources once OSINT people verify things in a day or so Chalks fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 21:17
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Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts
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Oct 16, 2022 21:28
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spankmeister posted:Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts Ukraine has a lot of goodwill with a sizeable chunk of OSINT community. That said, I would be entirely unsurprised to learn if the more accurate/anonymous accounts, like Defmon3, are posting their “OSINT” on the clock, so to say.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:31
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Just Another Lurker posted:Latest Perun vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCEzEVwOwS4&t=10s Air defence in Ukraine, covering planes/choppers, drones & SAMs. Ok, listening to this, it seems like Iran's cheap loitering munitions could post a significant threat to Ukraine. If kamikaze drones can destroy or use up Ukraine's air defense systems, then Russia can gain air superiority. Does NATO have much they could offer to replace Ukraine's existing air defense systems? It seems like S-300s have been real MVPs in this conflict, and it sounds like NATO systems aren't quite their equal.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:32
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https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1581671085061251073 I think the Israeli diaspora minister making this statement instead of the minister of defense says something about why Israel was on the fence for so long.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:33
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spankmeister posted:Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts I think in general the sort of people who value having a reputation for accuracy will value adhering to this sort of thing too. I'm sure there are a bunch of accounts out there posting stuff, but it'll be in amongst unverified rumours and fake news, and without the people putting in the work to verify it, it'll all be noise.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:38
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