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Haystack posted:Ok, listening to this, it seems like Iran's cheap loitering munitions could post a significant threat to Ukraine. If kamikaze drones can destroy or use up Ukraine's air defense systems, then Russia can gain air superiority. It's my understanding that European NATO countries have some pretty fantastic ADA but in very limited quantity. The U.S. has a lot of poo poo-tier ADA that was "good enough" for counter insurgency work but are in the middle of a big modernization program and won't have anything good available for ~5-10 years. So, really, no I don't think there's any magic bullet to the air defense problem other than Russia is running out of the good stuff
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Oct 16, 2022 21:39
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spankmeister posted:Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts The responsible osint accounts are pretty much all working with primarily russian reporting/social media posts and to a lesser extent third party tools and data. most don't really touch Ukraine-posted information until it's decidedly after the fact (eg soldiers raising a flag over an area). ukraine has been very effectively blacked out for months and months now. It's pretty extraordinary just how little footage and poo poo gets out. Yes I know that that is despite what it seems like. The vast majority of what is coming out comes out via official channels and what doesn't for some curious reason almost always comes out 3-10 days after the fact. You hear people say a lot that 'this is the first livestreamed war' or whatever, which is patently false. If anything, this is the first war in the digital age that has had extremely effective information control. It's wild to see. Even saying that is a bit of hyperbole as it isn't the first time we've seen extremely good information control, it's just by far the largest conflict that's been demonstrated in.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:39
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spankmeister posted:Pretty incredible how OSINT Twitter is managing to adhere to media blackouts It's also pretty silly. The black out is meant for journalists on the ground and local civilians. It's not like OSINT speculation could actually do anything but speculate then...
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Oct 16, 2022 21:47
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Herstory Begins Now posted:You hear people say a lot that 'this is the first livestreamed war' or whatever, which is patently false. If anything, this is the first war in the digital age that has had extremely effective information control. It's wild to see. Even saying that is a bit of hyperbole as it isn't the first time we've seen extremely good information control, it's just by far the largest conflict that's been demonstrated in. "This is the first major war since WWII" takes are awful because they really mean is "this is the first war between white people" I've experience as an adult.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:48
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Dirt5o8 posted:It's my understanding that European NATO countries have some pretty fantastic ADA but in very limited quantity. The U.S. has a lot of poo poo-tier ADA that was "good enough" for counter insurgency work but are in the middle of a big modernization program and won't have anything good available for ~5-10 years. The Patriot would be definitely good enough to shoot down russian's ancient fleet of flying tractors. For everything else like drones and poo poo, the Gepards, Iris-T, and NASMS also exist. It's not that NATO doesn't have it, they're just now finally getting to deliver this stuff for whatever reason. Not to mention the thousands of F-16s that would be moved to the farm in the desert soon anyway.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:51
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Herstory Begins Now posted:The responsible osint accounts are pretty much all working with primarily russian reporting/social media posts and to a lesser extent third party tools and data. most don't really touch Ukraine-posted information until it's decidedly after the fact (eg soldiers raising a flag over an area). ukraine has been very effectively blacked out for months and months now. It's pretty extraordinary just how little footage and poo poo gets out. Yes I know that that is despite what it seems like. The vast majority of what is coming out comes out via official channels and what doesn't for some curious reason almost always comes out 3-10 days after the fact. I think the fact that Russians are so propaganda heavy also really helps Ukraine's information blackouts. It'd probably be much less effective if Russian sources weren't constantly lying, but as it stands it takes a lot of effort from pro Ukrainian OSINT to work out what's real. Pro-Russian accounts might want to break the blackout but none of them value accuracy so they play right into Ukrainian hands on things like this. FishBulbia posted:It's also pretty silly. The black out is meant for journalists on the ground and local civilians. It's not like OSINT speculation could actually do anything but speculate then... This is a strange thing to say. OSINT are constantly doing things like accurately geolocating footage and verifying rumours. This sort of information is far more dangerous than news reports which are far more delayed and vague in comparison.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:52
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Chalks posted:This is a strange thing to say. OSINT are constantly doing things like accurately geolocating footage and verifying rumours. This sort of information is far more dangerous than news reports which are far more delayed and vague in comparison. A minority of OSINT accounts are doing OSINT. A significant portion (like almost all of them) of those accounts are just reposting stuff from telegram for an anglophone audience. Choosing not to tell Americans about what's been posted on some telegram account isn't changing the outcome of poo poo. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 21:54
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spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1581671085061251073 He's a minister from a minor party (Labor) in the caretaker government until the election. Currently Labor has seven seats in Knesset (out of 120), and Shai did not even go through in the last election. A caretaker government is not going to make huge shifts in foreign policy. However a politician preparing for elections next month can make huge shifts in outcomes if he thinks it might get him elected. Israeli politics are really byzantine, I would be wary of drawing conclusions from a single tweet unless it was put into context by an Israel specialist.
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Oct 16, 2022 21:57
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yeah the blackout is unquestionably intended at every levelFishBulbia posted:A minority of OSINT accounts are doing OSINT. no one is really embargoing information that russians are posting, once russian bloggers are posting about it, it's out there. You know that osint folks aren't sitting in russian telegram so they can tell americans about what they're saying lol Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 21:57
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FishBulbia posted:A minority of OSINT accounts are doing OSINT. What footage are they going to geolocate if it never gets shot? Totally, but assuming we don't have 100% mind control over everyone with the ability record footage, what you end up with is a sea of rumours and unclear footage claiming to be taken in some vague location. OSINT turns that into detailed information about what is happening where, and it's a big distributed effort that can't be easily reproduced if those people stop doing it for a short time.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:00
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the concern isn't that pro-ukraine osint will geolocate ukrainian stuff, it's that russians will geolocate poo poo ukrainians post...
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Oct 16, 2022 22:02
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Nenonen posted:He's a minister from a minor party (Labor) in the caretaker government until the election. Currently Labor has seven seats in Knesset (out of 120), and Shai did not even go through in the last election. A caretaker government is not going to make huge shifts in foreign policy. However a politician preparing for elections next month can make huge shifts in outcomes if he thinks it might get him elected. You seem to be more knowledgeable about Israeli politics than I am, but don't you agree that it's significant for the minister of diaspora affairs to comment on this rather than say the minister of defense or foreign affairs?
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Oct 16, 2022 22:02
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mobby_6kl posted:The Patriot would be definitely good enough to shoot down russian's ancient fleet of flying tractors. For everything else like drones and poo poo, the Gepards, Iris-T, and NASMS also exist. It's not that NATO doesn't have it, they're just now finally getting to deliver this stuff for whatever reason. Oh yeah, good call on Patriots. I just spaced big ol' missiles thinking about drones and loitering munitions.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:04
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Haystack posted:Ok, listening to this, it seems like Iran's cheap loitering munitions could post a significant threat to Ukraine. If kamikaze drones can destroy or use up Ukraine's air defense systems, then Russia can gain air superiority. I'm not sure if your attention faded out near the end (which is understandable since these videos are over an hour and dense), but we are sending systems that should be "good enough". We apparently have ground-based systems capable of firing NATO air to air missiles effectively from the ground, which would be nice since we have plenty of those missiles. (The west assumes they can defend their airspace from the air so they prioritized A2A defense over G2A. Being able to also fire those from the ground when necessary lets us give them something that can remain useful for a long time) Rigel fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 22:06
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It's sucks that the switchblade is supposedly over-engineered hot garbage
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Oct 16, 2022 22:08
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Herstory Begins Now posted:the concern isn't that pro-ukraine osint will geolocate ukrainian stuff, it's that russians will geolocate poo poo ukrainians post... It's also that when Russians are posting loads of confused and contradictory stuff, it'd be really useful to the Russians if there were people sifting through that data to create an accurate picture. Pro-Russian accounts only seem to be interested in amplifying propaganda and Russian success, so they're pretty bad at this
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Oct 16, 2022 22:13
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Warbadger posted:What specialized long range missiles are for targeting "Crimea" or the Kerch bridge? Anything with long enough legs to do that can also take the fight to Russia. HIMARS and HARM are examples of things that can already "take the fight to Russia" a pretty fair distance across the long border Ukraine shares with it. Payload at those ranges is tiny and would do very little damage. You'd need a much bigger weapon than himara.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:24
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Chalks posted:If this is real, the first reliable details about it will probably be from Russian sources once OSINT people verify things in a day or so Russia just slapped "discrediting the Russian Army" charges on like the 12 most prominent milbloggers, I'm getting a distinct sense that people who know what's happening are afraid to post anything to avoid getting charged. I doubt we'll get anything but a vague sense of unease from that side of the fence.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:28
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FishBulbia posted:It's sucks that the switchblade is supposedly over-engineered hot garbage Now that you mention it, there WAS a lot of guff about the Switchblade when it was first shipped over but I don't think we've seen much in the thread about it since. What are the reports you're getting about it?
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Oct 16, 2022 22:30
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Tomn posted:Now that you mention it, there WAS a lot of guff about the Switchblade when it was first shipped over but I don't think we've seen much in the thread about it since. What are the reports you're getting about it? It's basically a flying hand grenade (the 300 version), so there's actually really not much to expect. Also it's very hard to control for the operator according to Ukrainians who have used it. 600 version hasn't even been delivered yet.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:40
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Tomn posted:Now that you mention it, there WAS a lot of guff about the Switchblade when it was first shipped over but I don't think we've seen much in the thread about it since. What are the reports you're getting about it? As far as I understand it, the whole niche with the switchblade is that it was a small drone that could be launched by a single soldier from a backpack and then be used as a well directed mortar shell. A useful thing if you're on patrol in Afghanistan and get into a firefight, not a big game changer in a war of artillery.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:41
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Charlotte Hornets posted:It's basically a flying hand grenade (the 300 version), so there's actually really not much to expect. Also it's very hard to control for the operator according to Ukrainians who have used it. I think I saw one bit of footage of it hitting something. A lot of footage of Russian loitering munitions also seems to have them missing --- they're probably harder to aim than stuff that just drops vaguely down from commercial drones (especially since those can take multiple shots if they miss!).
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Oct 16, 2022 22:49
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saratoga posted:Payload at those ranges is tiny and would do very little damage. You'd need a much bigger weapon than himara. HIMARS can fire the M57E1 ATACMS missile, which has a 500lbs penetrating high explosive warhead. It's one big missile in a pod instead of 6 per pod. It has enough range to hit the bridge, and was designed partially specifically to take out such targets. That's why it's in the news so often, everyone knows that if Ukraine is shipped any, the Kerch bridge will fall properly. It's also why the Russians are so shrill about it.
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Oct 16, 2022 22:49
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spankmeister posted:You seem to be more knowledgeable about Israeli politics than I am, but don't you agree that it's significant for the minister of diaspora affairs to comment on this rather than say the minister of defense or foreign affairs? I'm neither knowledgeable about Israel, nor do I agree that it is significant. It would be significant if the government of Israel said that they will provide weapons to Ukraine. A minor minister from a minor party at the end of his term making a tweet is nothing noteworthy in itself. If they win big, then sure! But if Netanyahu wins and this guy stays out of Knesset??
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Oct 16, 2022 23:05
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1581764695119171584 Interesting that Prigozhin himself decided to throw a bucket of cold water on the talk around his own main battle. The most logical explanation is that poo poo is actually tough for Wagner there, Prigozhin won't get his glorious victory anytime soon so he is revving up the narrative of shifting the blame to the army.
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Oct 16, 2022 23:06
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I remember a few months ago when some UAF spokespeople were saying that we’d be seeing lots of Switchblade videos soon but I think I’ve only seen two or three. I also read on Telegram that they were difficult to control so that limited their effectiveness. UAF soldiers found off the shelf drones to be easier to use.
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Oct 16, 2022 23:10
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Mr. Apollo posted:I remember a few months ago when some UAF spokespeople were saying that we’d be seeing lots of Switchblade videos soon but I think I’ve only seen two or three. I also read on Telegram that they were difficult to control so that limited their effectiveness. UAF soldiers found off the shelf drones to be easier to use. It's like the war version of that apocryphal space pen story
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Oct 16, 2022 23:17
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FishBulbia posted:As far as I understand it, the whole niche with the switchblade is that it was a small drone that could be launched by a single soldier from a backpack and then be used as a well directed mortar shell. A useful thing if you're on patrol in Afghanistan and get into a firefight, not a big game changer in a war of artillery. also controls sucked enough that it was imprecise and the warhead was nowhere near big enough to make a miss a hit. Also the versatility and accuracy and effectiveness of drone dropped dual purpose anti-tank 40mm grenades was just much, much higher. Also zero supply issues ever with those, apparently. reading between the lines a bit: there's a reason why there was a big pile of them that the military was itching to get rid of asap Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Oct 16, 2022 |
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Oct 16, 2022 23:21
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FishBulbia posted:It's like the war version of that apocryphal space pen story Or any of 10,000 very real American defense contractor stories.
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Oct 16, 2022 23:31
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Mr. Apollo posted:I remember a few months ago when some UAF spokespeople were saying that we’d be seeing lots of Switchblade videos soon but I think I’ve only seen two or three. I also read on Telegram that they were difficult to control so that limited their effectiveness. UAF soldiers found off the shelf drones to be easier to use. Yeah, I think it's likely that the US doesn't want too much out there about them, which is partially why they aren't seen much. I don't doubt that they are hard to control - probably like an RC plane vs. a quad copter drone format. I would imagine that the improvised quad copter drones are better overall for this conflict. - you can hang out and easily observe and wait for for your shot, then you can continue to loiter and see what happened - you can reload the drone with easily available and cheap grenades and 3d printed fins to continue to pound the same areas. - there's no fancy anti drone countermeasures or anything that require special mil-spec radios or anti jamming or whatever. - range is probably less of an issue In all, I imagine the Switchblades were designed for more special ops where you just need one and can ditch it and don't care about the cost, and have other systems observing for you. I also think that the US realized they kinda sucked and was getting rid of them.
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Oct 16, 2022 23:34
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Maybe the switchblades would have been more useful if the Russians were more competent and Ukraine needed a higher-tech solution than "commercial drone with grenade attached by string".
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Oct 17, 2022 03:23
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ronya posted:It's quite straightforward to understand - Pakistan in SEATO, 1967 war with China, 1971 war with Pakistan, Sino-Soviet split, Shanghai communique - India spent much of the Cold War more powerful than or at least at parity with China, whilst China was but one node of a web of US allies encircling it What? China has never been a US ally.
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Oct 17, 2022 04:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:What? China has never been a US ally. Uhhh ww2, flying tigers etc
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Oct 17, 2022 04:57
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sino-soviet split ...
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Oct 17, 2022 04:58
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Oct 17, 2022 05:23
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https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63280523quote:Ukraine war: Multiple explosions in Kyiv as Ukraine reports kamikaze drone strikes Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Oct 17, 2022 |
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Oct 17, 2022 05:23
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nvm, beaten
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Oct 17, 2022 05:31
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https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1581329208235544579 mmm crimean tartar (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 17, 2022 06:48
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11%? huh, thought it was higher
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Oct 17, 2022 06:53
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Flavahbeast posted:11%? huh, thought it was higher I'm guessing a lot of them were eaten with fried fish
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Oct 17, 2022 06:55
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