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mobby_6kl posted:
(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Willo567 fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 15:51
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Pleasant Friend posted:I thought guns on drones wouldn't work because the recoil of shooting would knock the drone out of the sky? Not if you shoot TWO guns pointing in the opposite directions. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2022 15:58
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I always laugh when the line "Americans are soft and will never respond to a suprise attack on American soil" gets trotted out. Historically it's like the one thing guaranteed to turn the American public into frothing mad revenge elementals dedicated to bombing something . It's so guaranteed to get Americans' rage up that it's used as a justification even there is literally no actual danger to America. "Fight them over there so we don't fight them here" etc.
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Oct 18, 2022 16:00
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Willo567 posted:They don't mean it. They're just trying to act tough like they always do The whole article paints a picture of everyone huffing their own propaganda about how russia stronk and everyone else is a bunch of pussies. Clearly some are aware that this is bullshit, like the author, but it seem that they're all sending "yes the decadent westerners are all trembling now" to their superiors, all the way to the top.
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Oct 18, 2022 16:13
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I think the simple deaths vs. births graph isn't quite telling the big picture. Observe: _pyramid_(structure)_on_January,_1st,_2022.png) Russian infant mortality isn't bad enough to distort it, so we can assume that the post-millenium numbers roughly reflect actual births. Note the sharp decline post-dissolution of the USSR, but also note that 2014 seems to have reversed a trend of rising cohorts. And also, yikes that is a bad pyramid.
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Oct 18, 2022 16:25
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If Iran is going to give Russia all these wonderful terrorist toys, that should be gloves off for the US to send over its own long range stuff. Should be. Won't though. Edit: VV If I'm reading the chart right, 900k would be if you took the 2005 number for men and just cut straight down, eliminating that recovery bump. OAquinas fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 16:25
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Antigravitas posted:I think the simple deaths vs. births graph isn't quite telling the big picture. This chart can make anyone want to quit drinking! I've pointed this out before, but Russia's already-bad demographics aren't helped by their casualties in Ukraine, plus unknown hundreds of thousands of military-age men who've left the country. Novaya Gazeta, citing a security source, estimates 260,000 just between September 21-26. Has there been any attempt to estimate emigration from Russia since the war began? I know there was some at the beginning when sanctions started ramping up. Edit: Ah, sources linked in Wikipedia say 900k. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine William Bear fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 16:36
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Is this just births going down, or is it also people leaving the country?
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Oct 18, 2022 16:56
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spacetoaster posted:Is this just births going down, or is it also people leaving the country? The plot specifically is just births vs deaths, diverging in the wrong “polarity”, with the fertility rate overall emphasised throughout the article. Combat casualties, people fleeing the country, and COVID-19 all are mentioned, but in a passing manner. Edit: https://twitter.com/iikkakorhonen/status/1582250207407853569 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 17:03
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I'd be curious to know how geographically concentrated that 26% that wants an immediate peace is - are these mostly people who've been bombed out of house and home in the war zones, or are they more evenly distributed around the country and want peace for other reasons?
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Oct 18, 2022 17:36
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Tomn posted:I'd be curious to know how geographically concentrated that 26% that wants an immediate peace is - are these mostly people who've been bombed out of house and home in the war zones, or are they more evenly distributed around the country and want peace for other reasons?  Somewhat peculiar choice of shade grouping, from perspective of doing “interesting statistics”.
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Oct 18, 2022 17:41
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Willo567 posted:They don't mean it. They're just trying to act tough like they always do. I also remember hearing them say poo poo like that months ago Proof is in the pudding, and, yeah, thankfully deterrence is working successfully so far to disincentivize direct conflict. Sure, that means guardrails are imposed on western involvement but otoh, whatever the rhetoric, Russia isn't hitting NATO supplies in Poland either. But on the rhetoric point, most public statements have actually been comparatively anodyne lately, as there seems to have been a focus on bringing critical voices like Kadyrov to heel and reestablishing control of the public discourse after the hit on Kerch. https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1580993243537641472?s=20&t=z9w4OgywFZJyy4SZhMci7w https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1580997398372921345?s=20&t=vqBQebYl25hDAtdUOA-QNA
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Oct 18, 2022 17:43
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I always laugh when the line "Americans are soft and will never respond to a suprise attack on American soil" gets trotted out. Historically it's like the one thing guaranteed to turn the American public into frothing mad revenge elementals dedicated to bombing something . But that was before they got woke! *gets obliterated from 10.000 miles away by a barrage of missiles that each cost more than the GDP of my country* (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2022 17:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
So yeah, fairly predictable and understandable "We want the war to stop because we want to go home" sentiments. Though even then apparently only half of those in the affected area are amenable to peace. I do wonder if this is going to lead to a post-war domestic divide, but I guess there's not much point speculating about it until we have a better idea of how and when the war ends.
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Oct 18, 2022 17:59
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Tomn posted:So yeah, fairly predictable and understandable "We want the war to stop because we want to go home" sentiments. Though even then apparently only half of those in the affected area are amenable to peace. I do wonder if this is going to lead to a post-war domestic divide, but I guess there's not much point speculating about it until we have a better idea of how and when the war ends. How reasonable are the numbers? Parts of the southern/eastern regions are still under occupation. Did the pollmakers just go there and ask people living under occupation? Because if they asked people while angry Russians with guns were stalking close by, that may have colored their responses.
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Oct 18, 2022 18:21
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https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1582395690629890049
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Oct 18, 2022 18:28
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Warning for computer toucher content: https://storage.googleapis.com/site-media-prod/meetings/NANOG86/4493/20221017_Madory_Internet_Impacts_Due_v1.pdf Observations from Kentik on "Internet impacts due to the war in Ukraine". It is much more focused on networks that are obviously Ukranian vs Russian and therefore doesn't really talk about Starlink as Starlink traffic patterns are extremely difficult to categorize as part of Ukraine vs other regions.
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Oct 18, 2022 18:35
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mobby_6kl posted:Rheinmetall has a cool Skynex 35mm AA gun too.  Ynglaur posted:I agree, and I'd be amazed if the OMFV requirements didn't include something like this. The M1A2SEPv3 (wow that's a mouthful...) apparently have "smart" munitions. My laments in 2003 for lack of a simple HE round were later met by a bunch of different rounds that never quite just acted as "just punch through this concrete wall and then explode". US tanks are going back to two rounds: a DU-based SABOT, and a general-purpose "smart" round that can act like HE, HEAT, or proximity detonation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wewaCdSW4yc
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Oct 18, 2022 18:35
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https://twitter.com/clarissaward/status/1582423768768475136 ... How did someone drag this into their apartment?
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Oct 18, 2022 19:35
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Libluini posted:How reasonable are the numbers? Parts of the southern/eastern regions are still under occupation. Did the pollmakers just go there and ask people living under occupation? Because if they asked people while angry Russians with guns were stalking close by, that may have colored their responses. You can find this information in the link: it’s done by mobile and landline telephone surveys in Russian and Ukrainian.
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Oct 18, 2022 19:36
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OddObserver posted:https://twitter.com/clarissaward/status/1582423768768475136 * Cuts to two overweigh Ukrainian dudes in overalls wedging the drone into the door, convinced they can get it through if they turn it just right.
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Oct 18, 2022 19:56
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That does not look like a very shot-down drone to me.
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Oct 18, 2022 20:08
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Maybe they "shot it down" with electronic countermeasures?
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Oct 18, 2022 20:09
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There have also been a few instances of drones going down over the water and being retrieved in fairly good condition
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Oct 18, 2022 20:18
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Cicero posted:Maybe they "shot it down" with electronic countermeasures?
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Oct 18, 2022 20:23
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Ikasuhito posted:* Cuts to two overweigh Ukrainian dudes in overalls wedging the drone into the door, convinced they can get it through if they turn it just right. PIVOT! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2022 20:25
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Yeah, that one fell into the water close to Odessa, I think?
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Oct 18, 2022 20:56
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With a polite tinfoil warning, there’s may be a faint smell of an anticipated “gesture of goodwill” in Kherson area, on the right bank of Dnipro. 1) exhibit A https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1582428383438217217 The guy is the recently appointed official boss general for the war, and he’s droning on about “NATO pushing Kyiv to prepare for carpet bombing of Kherson area with rockets, including Kakhovka dam and the city of Kherson, inflicting massive infrastructure damage and civilian casualties”. 2) exhibit B https://twitter.com/sotnikov_d/status/1582425930189787136 Some Russian MPs may have released vague rumours about the upper house of the parliament possibly discussing introduction of martial law as early as tomorrow. Both of those things could not mean anything practical in the end, but they combine well. Especially the general’s speech, the delivery of it is not something that’s supposed to end with “and that’s why we’re launching a massive counteroffensive”, though I’m admittedly too lazy to track down the full TV piece in the instant.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:With a polite tinfoil warning, there’s may be a faint smell of an anticipated “gesture of goodwill” in Kherson area, on the right bank of Dnipro. Further supporting evidence: https://t-me.translate.goog/suspilnekherson?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp quote:The Russian military transported the collaborators with their relatives and their families to Henichesk and Crimea and plan to take out the museum exhibits. https://t-me.translate.goog/suspilnekherson?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp quote:Public Kherson
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Oct 18, 2022 21:30
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It never fails to amaze me that apparently the Russian military has to rely on looting/foraging so much of the local population. Do they also use billeting to provide for lodging?
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Oct 18, 2022 21:43
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Orthanc6 posted:A reminder that, on top of imminent threats to abortion rights and the US staying a democracy, a GOP takeover of either house can literally cause anywhere between thousands and hundreds of thousands of deaths in Ukraine: Ugh. The GOP is playing right into Putin's hands.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:46
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More talk of a Kherson evacuation https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1582429121548017664 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1582428031490043904
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Oct 18, 2022 21:47
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Deltasquid posted:It never fails to amaze me that apparently the Russian military has to rely on looting/foraging so much of the local population. Do they also use billeting to provide for lodging? If only Ukraine had the 3rd amendment!
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Oct 18, 2022 21:47
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Army usually takes the valuables and the locals pick the final meat off the bones. Nothing new here.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:50
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So the suspicion is that Russia is going to blow the dam and/or bomb Kherson, blame it on Ukraine, and then use that as an escalation excuse to declare martial law and conscript more Russians?
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Oct 18, 2022 21:50
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Chalks posted:More talk of a Kherson evacuation Does this mean Russia is letting their imported administrators and collaborators swing in the wind while the military bails out of Kherson? mutata posted:So the suspicion is that Russia is going to blow the dam and/or bomb Kherson, blame it on Ukraine, and then use that as an escalation excuse to declare martial law and conscript more Russians? Blowing the dam does the Russians more harm than good. It cuts off Crimea from fresh water, floods the Russian positions on the eastern shore, completely disables the Antonovsky bridge and their barge ferries. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 21:56
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mutata posted:So the suspicion is that Russia is going to blow the dam and/or bomb Kherson, blame it on Ukraine, and then use that as an escalation excuse to declare martial law and conscript more Russians? I think if they blow that dam then the Crimea water supply is not going to look all that great, so if my take is confirmed by near future events, I would expect martial law or other internal escalation measure to be taken in the name of either preventing such claimed events from materialising, or to start moving forward in the direction of more clearly trying to draw the still ambiguous new federal state border, from Russia’s legislative perspective. But I would say we may be getting ahead with the mobilisation bit, since it could’ve also been a manner of veiled condescension.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:57
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Young Freud posted:Does this mean Russia is letting their imported administrators and collaborators swing in the wind while the military bails out of Kherson? No, it's been reported numerous times that they're being evacuated to Crimea.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:57
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mutata posted:So the suspicion is that Russia is going to blow the dam and/or bomb Kherson, blame it on Ukraine, and then use that as an escalation excuse to declare martial law and conscript more Russians? I'm not sure if anyone is expecting that they'll actually blow up the dam, more that they're using it as an excuse to pretend it's not a military defeat. Blowing up the dam would gently caress the Russians on the east side of the river far more than the Ukrainians: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1582429514289643520
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Oct 18, 2022 21:58
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