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selec posted:If the government isn’t functioning why do we think it’s qualified to represent a nation well enough to request aid? if a nation needs humanitarian aid is relatively observable, both to an outside observer and to a government that still exists but cannot maintain its authority sufficient to put down armed gangs. if there are people who are arguing that haiti does not need humanitarian aid, they can argue that themselves. i assume you are not making that argument, but if you want to do so i will admit i was wrong! solving "how do you effectively administer humanitarian aid in a country with a weak/failed government" is a complex and difficult question. one could debate it reasonably and credibly. one could also argue "just airdrop money to everyone in electronic bank accounts, problem solved!!!!" that is such a libertarian approach to humanitarian aid (if we give people money the free market will establish security and food importation and distribution) that it sort of baffles me how we're even discussing it; i do not need to have a well-structured plan for how you effectively deliver humanitarian aid to laugh until i am hoarse at that idea
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Oct 18, 2022 19:40
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evilweasel posted:if a nation needs humanitarian aid is relatively observable, both to an outside observer and to a government that still exists but cannot maintain its authority sufficient to put down armed gangs. if there are people who are arguing that haiti does not need humanitarian aid, they can argue that themselves. i assume you are not making that argument, but if you want to do so i will admit i was wrong! arguing that the United States would be more effective than that laughable plan depends on whether you consider 'number of Hatians sex trafficked' a good to be maximized this is a point that has proven surprisingly contentious in previous US interventions (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2022 19:44
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I just think people need to be paid back and gating it is going to lead to it never happening. It's not that it solves all problems, it solves part of a problem the international order created because a former slave colony successfully rebelled and gained independence. Also I never mentioned the free market or any expectation it would solve anything (it won't). Total misread on your part.
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Oct 18, 2022 19:47
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Cranappleberry posted:I just think people need to be paid back and gating it is going to lead to it never happening. Right now it's being gated by death squads. Being gated by the first world's unwillingness to do it would be an upgrade
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Oct 18, 2022 19:49
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haveblue posted:Right now it's being gated by death squads. Being gated by the first world's unwillingness to do it would be an upgrade you typed out the same thing twice
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Oct 18, 2022 19:54
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haveblue posted:Right now it's being gated by death squads. Being gated by the first world's unwillingness to do it would be an upgrade I disagree with the premise considering the first world created the problem (and then made it worse) in the first place.
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Oct 18, 2022 19:56
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I grew up poor, and am now not poor, and the main, overriding difference between poor people and rich people is money. Rich people are just as bad with money as poor people, it’s just that they have a lot more and we’ve constructed a society designed to pamper and forgive them, and to punish and discipline the poor. Poor people go to jail for things rich people don’t even get arrested for, they struggle with addictions rich people pay to be bailed out of, they get called lovely parents because they gotta work so much when rich people just can’t stand to be around their kids, and are lauded despite rubbing our noses in their breeding fetish (Elon!) Poor countries are just the same, I think. Never met a poor person who 90% of their woes weren’t solvable with cash, it’s probably true for Haiti too. You can just give money to people, they know what they need most.
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Oct 18, 2022 20:13
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selec posted:I grew up poor, and am now not poor, and the main, overriding difference between poor people and rich people is money. Rich people are just as bad with money as poor people, it’s just that they have a lot more and we’ve constructed a society designed to pamper and forgive them, and to punish and discipline the poor. Poor people go to jail for things rich people don’t even get arrested for, they struggle with addictions rich people pay to be bailed out of, they get called lovely parents because they gotta work so much when rich people just can’t stand to be around their kids, and are lauded despite rubbing our noses in their breeding fetish (Elon!) I don't think any of this is wrong, but I'm not sure how relevant it is to the immediate humanitarian crisis in Haiti? I feel like "armed gangs have blocked off crucial infrastructure and cut off people's access to daily necessities" falls into that 10% of daily woes that won't be solved by giving everyone more spending money.
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Oct 18, 2022 20:44
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Main Paineframe posted:I don't think any of this is wrong, but I'm not sure how relevant it is to the immediate humanitarian crisis in Haiti? I feel like "armed gangs have blocked off crucial infrastructure and cut off people's access to daily necessities" falls into that 10% of daily woes that won't be solved by giving everyone more spending money. Get lateral, think outside the box! We are experiencing a real When The Only Tool You Have Is Complete Economic and Military Domination, Every Problem Starts To Look Like Grenada thing going on in here. Let’s fire up those thinking caps, look at the failures of the past, make a big box on the whiteboard that is labeled NOT THESE, and write all the things we tried previously inside that box. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 18, 2022 20:47
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selec posted:Get lateral, think outside the box! We are experiencing a real When The Only Tool You Have Is Complete Economic and Military Domination, Every Problem Starts To Look Like Grenada thing going on in here. So, cool, going back to something that's actually doable, what do you think would work? I think we all are pretty wary about US intervention, but also probably somebody needs to intervene. What does that look like? I think it's a very complex problem and I don't have any easy solutions. I realize Deus ex Cuba is enticing but there's more or less zero chance of happening here.
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Oct 18, 2022 20:56
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Jaxyon posted:So, cool, going back to something that's actually doable, what do you think would work? Ok but what’s stopping us from doing the Cuba thing? It’s us! We are the problem. So let’s just take the thing we’re good at (having too much money) and pay people good at the part we are bad at. I realize that this is nearly inconceivable because Americans cannot really process the idea of getting out of the rest of the world’s way, obviously not an issue I’m really struggling with, but I’m seeing a lot of arguments leaning on our insecurity as a nation about a tiny island ninety miles off our shore. Did you people internalize that, or are you just expressing a sense of powerlessness but explaining it away as “realism” of an acceptable form of self-defeat. We are all just spitballing here, if literally the only answer to this idea is “Well we are way too deep into decades of assassination attempts and dogshit propaganda about Cuba to turn back now,” why are you even posting? I’ve got one good idea, I haven’t heard a better one, I’ve just heard a lot of “but we have humanitarian intervention at home” with a picture of cholera stats and centuries of Haiti being robbed being the intervention we have at home.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:05
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Does "suppress the death squads and repair sanitation infrastructure" go inside or outside the box
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Oct 18, 2022 21:08
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not sure how many people who are supporting UN involvement are centering the US, tbhhaveblue posted:Does "suppress the death squads and repair sanitation infrastructure" go inside or outside the box there's a third option (outside "keep the country limping along with secured humanitarian aid and let the gang warlords thing work out as it does" and "UN military intervention to restore something loosely approximating order") tickling at the back of my head but I'll need to do a little more thinking and reading because rn I don't like it Haiti at the moment seems to be a collapsed warlordism state, and there are playbooks for that
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Oct 18, 2022 21:14
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selec posted:Ok but what’s stopping us from doing the Cuba thing? It’s us! We are the problem. Yeah I'm just wondering if anyone has any workable solutions, because I don't. I don't know that anyone else here does either.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:19
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Maybe I missed something but has Cuba even expressed any interest in helping Haiti or is this more of a "anyone but America" thing?
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Oct 18, 2022 21:23
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I'm beginning to believe it would be prudent to have a thread for in-depth discussion the ongoing crisis in Haiti, so if anyone would like to create one with an informative OP, I encourage them to.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:27
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Madkal posted:Maybe I missed something but has Cuba even expressed any interest in helping Haiti or is this more of a "anyone but America" thing? I don't think Cuba has raised its hand to volunteer.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:30
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here's a sample of what the narrative around haiti was a week ago https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/11/haiti-thousands-protest-against-calls-for https://www.africanews.com/2022/10/11/haiti-thousands-protest-governments-call-for-international-armed-force// i don't dispute there is some big organized crime problem in haiti but don't you think it smells fishy that the UN is talking about military intervention at the moment when haitians are protesting the us backed-puppet government? it seems clear to me that Ariel Henry is asking for military assistance to crush dissent and they are using the threat of gangs as a way to manufacture consent. i don't know what could be done but the idea that the UN couldn't make things worse is laughable given their previous involvement there. tristeham fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 21:31
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Koos Group posted:I'm beginning to believe it would be prudent to have a thread for in-depth discussion the ongoing crisis in Haiti, so if anyone would like to create one with an informative OP, I encourage them to. It's probably gonna be a slow thread because I don't know that many people have an in-depth understanding of Haiti's issues or solutions to it.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:33
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tristeham posted:here's a sample of what the narrative around haiti was a week ago The media has been covering the serious gang issue and the humanitarian crisis they're creating for months. Here's a few other pieces from Al-Jazeera:
It may be getting more mainstream media attention now (or perhaps people are simply paying more attention to the media articles now), but the situation has been bad for a while now, and it's been steadily worsening - especially with the fuel blockade over the last month. There's also been on-and-off protests for the better part of the last year, and the government has been begging for foreign intervention for a while too.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:48
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I'd also not mind some receipts on the current dudes being a "US backed puppet government". My extremely loose understanding is that Moise was along those lines, but he got, you know, murdered and replaced with these guys.
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Oct 18, 2022 21:55
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Controversial opinion but I would be OK with US rebuilding Japan levels of intervention in my country if there were unstoppable rape squads everywhere.
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Oct 18, 2022 22:56
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Yawgmoft posted:Controversial opinion but I would be OK with US rebuilding Japan levels of intervention in my country if there were unstoppable rape squads everywhere. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_during_the_occupation_of_Japan#Incidents cat botherer fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 23:03
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cat botherer posted:I’ll risk being probed again to say that given the history of interventions (very much including the Japanese occupation) it is not clear that intervention leads to less rape. Often, the opposite has wound up being true. During the 13-year U.N. mission in Haiti, there were 27 rapes (most of them in 2007 by a Sri Lanken military unit) by U.N. personnel. There are currently approximately 71 rapes reported per month (and the assumption is that many many of them are not being reported) committed by various criminal gangs. If you are measuring entirely by rapes, then there is currently a 177,403% increase in rapes by those in charge now compared to the average over the previous U.N. Haiti intervention. 177,403% is generally considered a statistically significant increase by statisticians. Seems like it would be pretty difficult for the United Nations to make it worse unless they started actively assisting the gangs.
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Oct 18, 2022 23:15
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:During the 13-year U.N. mission in Haiti, there were 27 rapes (most of them in 2007 by a Sri Lanken military unit) by U.N. personnel. Could you explain that math a bit more? How long did the intervention last?
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Oct 18, 2022 23:17
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It's worth noting that the UN fiddled with its policies after the 2007 child rape brothel incident, notably requiring sufficient information for a UN background check on every soldier contributed by member nations. I'm, uh, not too sure whether that's sufficient, but they at least took note and did something. unlike the sri Lankan military, naturally E: also 27 is probably a lowball, but that's okay, so is the criminal syndicate number Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Oct 18, 2022 |
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Oct 18, 2022 23:25
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Koos Group posted:Could you explain that math a bit more? How long did the intervention last? Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:During the 13-year U.N. mission in Haiti, I just realized that I accidentally did the initial month ratio for the U.N. backwards and had .48 instead of 2.07. 27 over 13 years is an annualized rate of 2.07 per year. 71 per month is an annualized rate of 852 per year. 2.07 to 852 is a 41,059% increase. So, it is a 41,059% annualized increase and not a 177,403% annualized increase. That is also just based on the confirmed number in the U.N. report and the report also says that the bulk are likely going unreported, so it is probably much bigger than 41,059%. The short version is that it is extremely rapey in Haiti right now by a factor of tens of thousands more than it was from 2004 to 2017.
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Oct 18, 2022 23:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I just realized that I accidentally did the initial month ratio for the U.N. backwards and had .48 instead of 2.07. Ah, thank you.
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Oct 18, 2022 23:26
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In addition to all the rape, there are 156 murders per month, 75% of the capital city is unable to leave their homes to earn an income or get food, only about 20% have consistent access to clean water, there are about 311 shootings per month, and 81 people are kidnapped per month. Note that these are only the confirmed figures and the actual are almost surely higher. It is extremely bad in Haiti right now.
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Oct 18, 2022 23:35
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:During the 13-year U.N. mission in Haiti, there were 27 rapes (most of them in 2007 by a Sri Lanken military unit) by U.N. personnel. Your unstated assumption is that intervention will total decrease rapes - that is something that needs to have positive evidence. Adding soldiers to a situation usually doesn't decrease rape.
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Oct 19, 2022 01:02
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cat botherer posted:It's apples-and-oranges to compare rapes by gangs to rapes by UN personnel: the relevant metric is the expectation of the total number of rapes by gangs *without intervention*, and the total number of rapes by gangs *and* intervention personnel *with* intervention. Same with murder. It is true that for it truly to be apples to apples we would also need to factor in the overall rates of sexual violence, not just that performed by U.N. personnel.
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Oct 19, 2022 01:29
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I hate that I'm used to people using Haiti and the whole of its troubles and lived history as a ball or bait or poo poo like that in conversations which are actually just about disliking America, but still here we gocat botherer posted:Your unstated assumption is that intervention will total decrease rapes - that is something that needs to have positive evidence. Adding soldiers to a situation usually doesn't decrease rape. Based on your expert assessment of Haiti, it's been a "post apocalyptic wasteland" since lafayette or some poo poo, which makes it somewhat impressive that my parents kept a house and ran a restaurant, presumably inbetween dodging mad max wasteland gangs, like it was nothing. How bad is the UN in your eyes that the situation can be literally at the point of post apocalyptic collapse and it is still worse to bring in UN peacekeeping Anyway, my stated opinion is that UN intervention will most likely reduce rapes even just purely based on the current condition brought about by lawlessness, should it come to that, but I think Leon went into that more politely than I could
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Oct 19, 2022 02:18
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Koos Group posted:It is true that for it truly to be apples to apples we would also need to factor in the overall rates of sexual violence, not just that performed by U.N. personnel. I said the relevant metric is the expected number of rapes that would happen with intervention, less the expected amount without. To break it down and check that I understand you correctly: cat botherer posted:the total number of rapes by gangs *without intervention* cat botherer posted:the total number of rapes by gangs *and* intervention personnel *with* intervention I am starting from a place where I want the US act in a way that minimizes the expected amount of Haitians that get raped. Haitians can get raped by foreigners or other Haitains. If there is a foreign intervention, there will be some rapes from foreigners, but the greatest effect of the intervention on the amount of rape will be due to how the intervention effects long-term political and economic stability. Given what I know about the history of US/UN intervention in foreign countries, and Haiti in particular, I do not think that our intervention will lead to greater long-term stability. Therefore, I do not believe that intervention will lead to less rapes. edit: Staluigi posted:I hate that I'm used to people using Haiti and the whole of its troubles and lived history as a ball or bait or poo poo like that in conversations which are actually just about disliking America, but still here we go Sodomy Hussein posted:So just so I'm clear, what is your take on what if any actions should be taken by foreign governments? If I am to believe any number of news reports and general sentiment of people ITT better-read on this topic, Haiti is about to become post-apocalyptic without intervention. I am using it to mean "poor" and "violent," because apparently I wasn't being clear. cat botherer fucked around with this message at 02:34 on Oct 19, 2022 |
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Oct 19, 2022 02:24
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I will not pretend to know much about Haiti, but I think the point is that it is exceptionally bad right now, and to pretend otherwise for the sake of making some kind of historical jab at post-colonialism is incredibly offensive to the people suffering right now. IE: Regardless of what the US has done to them in the past, there have been times where Haiti was better off than it is now, and they would like to return to those times if possible.
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Oct 19, 2022 02:36
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cat botherer posted:I wasn't the one who first described it as a "post-apocalyptic wasteland": The person you are quoting literally isn't describing it as a post apocalyptic wasteland, he's saying that reports they're hearing make it sound like it's on its way to that condition That is completely different from what you did which is to respond to them by saying it's been post-apocalyptic for a couple centuries So
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Oct 19, 2022 02:36
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Staluigi posted:The person you are quoting literally isn't describing it as a post apocalyptic wasteland, he's saying that reports they're hearing make it sound like it's on its way to that condition Staluigi posted:Based on your expert assessment of Haiti, it's been a "post apocalyptic wasteland" since lafayette or some poo poo, which makes it somewhat impressive that my parents kept a house and ran a restaurant, presumably inbetween dodging mad max wasteland gangs, like it was nothing. edit: To be more clear, Haiti has had horrible violence, civil wars, etc in the past. Whatever is happening now, it has been a lot worse. Previous interventions haven't had a great track record. Justifying intervention by the level of violence alone is nonsense. There is always violence independent of our actions. What matters for decision-making in this case, is not the current violence, but the change in violence we expect due to the action we take in response to the current situation. The justifications of pro-interventionists ITT are the same used for countless other foreign actions throughout history, the majority with poor outcomes. Why is this different? What sets it apart? I'm asking for positive evidence beyond the admittedly grim current statistics, because those statistics can always get worse. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) cat botherer fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Oct 19, 2022 |
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Oct 19, 2022 02:39
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Clarste posted:I will not pretend to know much about Haiti, but I think the point is that it is exceptionally bad right now, and to pretend otherwise for the sake of making some kind of historical jab at post-colonialism is incredibly offensive to the people suffering right now. IE: Regardless of what the US has done to them in the past, there have been times where Haiti was better off than it is now, and they would like to return to those times if possible. I was gonna post but this was nicer than what I was typing.
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Oct 19, 2022 03:57
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cat botherer posted:I’ll risk being probed again to say that given the history of interventions (very much including the Japanese occupation) it is not clear that intervention leads to less rape. Often, the opposite has wound up being true. The US occupation of Japan is a completely different situation, given that it was a conscripted military force engaging in a forcible military occupation of a country that had little to no internal violent dissent (thanks to severe internal suppression by a draconian military regime) right up until it lost a years-long bloody war. That's not really comparable to a small volunteer multinational peacekeeping force being invited in to aid the local government in maintaining order. And I think that's a pretty good example of how this conversation would go a lot smoother if people were willing to commit to making specific claims, instead of vague sweeping statements that just obliterate any sort of nuance and are basically impossible to have a real conversation about. You're comparing the unconditional surrender of Japan at the end of World War II to a request for military aid in suppressing organized crime, and then accusing other people of making other people aren't making "apples-to-oranges" comparisons when they try to narrow that absurdly broad conversation down to the actual specific details of the current situation. cat botherer posted:RE: "overall rates of sexual violence" This is another example of statements that are so lacking in specifics that they're actually rather difficult to grapple with. You're citing every single US and UN intervention in history as reason to believe that intervention will increase the long-term rape rate in the country. But the US has engaged in literally hundreds of foreign interventions over a period of centuries. And the UN has engaged in over seventy official peacekeeping missions since its founding after WWII. It's actually rather difficult to paint that huge number of interventions, under wildly varying circumstances, with a single brush. So that's actually an incredibly broad statement being thrown out there, without even the slightest bit of further elaboration to let us know what about those hundreds of interventions makes you think that. It's also rather flippant, to the point of being rather callous. If you're going to be talking about rape rates like this, I wish you'd treat it with either a little more seriousness or a little more sympathy. It's not like you're being super bad about it, but "the expected amount of Haitians that get raped" is a hell of a subject to lay out and compare calculations on, especially when the calculations aren't really based on anything and it's not part of a serious effort to consider the specifics of the situation.
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Oct 19, 2022 04:29
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All of the weird theorycrafting and basically baseless calculations around sexual violence of all things is incredibly creepy.
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Oct 19, 2022 05:03
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cat botherer posted:RE: "overall rates of sexual violence" I was agreeing with you that this would be a better metric than the comparison Leon made. But it would be an easier comparison to make than you are implying. You would take the overall rate of sexual violence over the period Leon was talking about, rather than that which was perpetrated by U.N. forces alone, and compare it to the rate currently, to estimate whether an intervention would be helpful. One could more broadly try to do the same thing with any statistic we are expecting or trying to change with an intervention. slurm posted:All of the weird theorycrafting and basically baseless calculations around sexual violence of all things is incredibly creepy. I can see how it may be in poor taste for someone to bring up ongoing atrocities as a data point that is ultimately in defense of their ideology on a message board. However, the effect an intervention will have for better or worse is a serious consideration for whether it should be undertaken, so the unpleasant task of figuring out what that effect is likely to be, perhaps using historical examples, has value.
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Oct 19, 2022 05:27
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