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FishBulbia posted:The wars during the collapse of Yugoslavia were terribly violent and genocidal at times, but as I understand it they started to focus more on the small squad combat the characterized 21st century war, with a few major engagements/sieges as exceptions. 2014 was a different beast entirely, very small units fighting, sides struggling to mobilize official militaries and using a lot of paramilitary. 2022 was remarkable for scale. The breakup of Yugoslavia and the resulting conflicts are interesting and complex. If you're at all interested the BBC made an excellent documentary series in the 90's called "The Death of Yugoslavia". It was made before many of the major players were standing trial at the ICTY, so you'll see interviews with Milosevic, Mladic and Praljack (poison guy) among others. Quite surreal really. Conversely this also means there's nothing about the later conflict in Kosovo. It's a six parter but it's here in full: https://youtu.be/bVUg-VoPAeA Or a playlist with the separate episodes: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLdw7wnKe0wiUSNdugFGpnSfm6wt-9gvUt Back to your regularly scheduled Ukraineposting. 
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Oct 21, 2022 19:15
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Cable Guy posted:I'm interested in what the "Original Sin Problem" is... could you post more of the article if it goes into it please..? All I know is from the Wikipedia article. Countries can't usually borrow in their own currency, but Russia gets around it by paying debts in rubles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_sin_(economics)
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Oct 21, 2022 19:27
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Just Another Lurker posted:If they blow that dam how much will it narrow the river above it? If you are thinking the dam burst would make it easier to cross where the reservoir had once been, it's probably all silt and muck under that water. It'd be like trying to ford quicksand.
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Oct 21, 2022 19:31
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FishBulbia posted:The wars during the collapse of Yugoslavia were terribly violent and genocidal at times, but as I understand it they started to focus more on the small squad combat the characterized 21st century war, with a few major engagements/sieges as exceptions. 2014 was a different beast entirely, very small units fighting, sides struggling to mobilize official militaries and using a lot of paramilitary. 2022 was remarkable for scale. I'm an old fart, so maybe I can chip in a bit on this. Yes, the early phase of the Yugoslavian dissolution wasn't much like a war at all - Slovenia and Croatia becoming independent wasn't entirely bloodless, but it was relatively low intensity. I had family in Croatia when the war broke out and they encountered Croatian fighters and Serbian armored columns both while heading out of the country, and it was quite safe for civilians in most places. Considering the history between Serbs and Croats, and the mixed ethnicity in some parts of Croatia, it was a surprisingly calm affair. I remember people worrying about whether Hungary would invade Croatia. Bosnia-Herzegovina was really nasty - the siege of Sarajevo a grueling affair. I know people who served with the UN forces back then and experienced the snipers spreading terror. I don't know how many of their war stories were true, but they did include civilians being targeted and killed. I've talked to emigrants (Croats, Bosnians, Serbs), people who stayed (mostly Croats), about these times as well - and it varies a lot how they experienced the war. Some describe a very horrific period, others something that never turned violent where they lived. So I don't think it's comparable to an actual war of aggression. But it did scare a lot of people back then. Especially due to fear of it spreading to involve Hungary, Greece, Albania - even Italy or Bulgaria. I think the Yugoslav civil war is sometimes overlooked at an event that served to bring the US and Europe closer at a point in time where the threat from the Warsaw Pact and the USSR had gone. It also brought Europe closer. Refugee were generally welcomed with open arms (at least where I lived). Considering that many were muslims this was actually a pretty big deal - as anti-immigration and anti-Islam sentiment was very much on the rise in Europe during this period. The Kosovo affair was different - and actually caused some cracks in the support for NATO and reignited anti-US sentiments lingering from the cold war. So that shouldn't be conflated with the rest I think. It's also the part I know the least about. I think in many ways the wars and conflicts of the Yugoslav dissolution reinforced the dream of Pax Europaea, the end of history and so forth. It was considered a smoldering relic of a barbaric past - but when it didn't turn into peer warfare, when refugees could easily be managed, when the new nations (except Serbia) quickly oriented themselves towards the EU - there was a feeling that we could overcome the past and leave nationalism behind. If the powder keg could be tamed and made a peaceful part of Europe that was proof of the European dream and the rules-based world order. To some extent I think this is also why Europe sort of ignored the Crimean annexation and the Donbas situation. To an outsider it seemed similar to the Yugoslav conflicts - "ok borders are redrawn, but it's mostly low-intensity stuff and hopefully it can be sorted out via agreements and talks". I remember Russian colleagues joking about the situation - even though one Russian acquaintance was very upset about what happened in the Donbas and saying some not very nice things about Ukrainians and how they had nazis in the government. But still it didn't sound that different from back in the Yugoslav days. When Russia invaded that illusion shattered. It would be like if Hungary, Bulgaria or Italy had invaded Yugoslavia in it's final days. Even worse, as Russia was the old enemy that many Europeans thought was now a weird, but amenable, neighbor. So I think it's correct to say we haven't war like this in Europe since WW2. Because it's a war that shatters the accepted order and the dreams of nationalist wars of conquest being a relic of the past. It's everything we thought was left behind in the ashes of WW2. The cold war was about ideology. Yugoslavia was about ethnic animosities dating back to medieval times. Ironically the fact that Ukrainians were actually considered pseudo-Russians by much of Europe made this worse. Because it makes the imperialism more apparent. And when Putin didn't back down and started yelling about nukes it went completely down the drain. I honestly think a less openly antagonistic tone from the Russian regime would have made things much more difficult for Ukraine when it came to early support. Putin really failed not just at the military aspect of the invasion but also at the diplomacy.
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Oct 21, 2022 20:36
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I remember having a very awkward conversation with a girl in my freshman college class. First day introduction type stuff, "turn to your group and ask them why they are here!". My group was fairly typical, "get away from parents and experience college" but one girl meekly said, "one night a group of men threw a grenade through my bedroom window. When I woke up I was on a boat heading to America." That's when I also found out she was from Bosnia.
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Oct 21, 2022 20:47
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The Bosnian war caused about 100,000 deaths and 350,000 total casualties, just to give a sense of scale. E: And like 2 million refugees out of a population of only 4.4m. sean10mm fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Oct 21, 2022 |
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Oct 21, 2022 20:48
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Edit:Outdated, ignore
Tomn fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Oct 21, 2022 |
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Oct 21, 2022 21:04
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With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:09
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slurm posted:With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation. Are you being serious? That seems like a gross overreaction, I'm not sure why you would advocate for that unless you really want people dead for no reason.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:10
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slurm posted:With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation. They may not be a nuclear power yet but they've certainly got plenty of military resources and an outright declaration of war/direct attacks on Iranian soil is going to lead to all sorts of uncertain escalations.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:10
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The US invading Iran and then getting bogged down would provide some beautiful symmetry to this war
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Oct 21, 2022 21:12
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slurm posted:With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation. To add to other people, Iran and the US are selling arms (or really, mostly giving it away) to the parties involved. They are not parties. Other than economic incentives, non-belligerents can sell weapons to belligerents. And "mercenaries" are always a thing. By your logic, Russia should be allowed to bomb America. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Oct 21, 2022 |
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Oct 21, 2022 21:17
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We should absolutely not be encouraging the U.S. to just blow up poo poo in another country because they are providing some support to Russia. By that logic Russia could argue they should blow up factories in the U.S. for providing aid to Ukraine. ^^^Yeah that.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:18
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WarpedLichen posted:Are you being serious? That seems like a gross overreaction, I'm not sure why you would advocate for that unless you really want people dead for no reason. Russia has already had to move around a lot of air defense systems just to stop Ukraine from getting a decisive upper hand, if they had to stretch to cover another large front they'd likely have huge shortages. Opening up the air war in Ukraine seems like it would be huge.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:18
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Popete posted:We should absolutely not be encouraging the U.S. to just blow up poo poo in another country because they are providing some support to Russia. I thought they weren't doing this not because these factories and training sites weren't legitimate targets but more because of the risk of MAD/NATO escalation? I'm not seeing how Iran can escalate in quite the same way and we only have a few weeks now to get this wrapped up before the US flips.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:20
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FishBulbia posted:The US invading Iran and then getting bogged down would provide some beautiful symmetry to this war All we’d need is for China to break itself invading Taiwan and then we can really get this hell-decade going with the death of superpowers as a concept! slurm posted:Russia has already had to move around a lot of air defense systems just to stop Ukraine from getting a decisive upper hand, if they had to stretch to cover another large front they'd likely have huge shortages. Opening up the air war in Ukraine seems like it would be huge. Iran is not Russia with a funny flag on it and they have no obligation or real reason to divert one iota of effort from Ukraine into defending Iran, why would you think they would. Tomn fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Oct 21, 2022 |
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Oct 21, 2022 21:20
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slurm posted:Russia has already had to move around a lot of air defense systems just to stop Ukraine from getting a decisive upper hand, if they had to stretch to cover another large front they'd likely have huge shortages. Opening up the air war in Ukraine seems like it would be huge. Not even the US has infinite resources. Launching a war in Iran would reduce aid that could be given to Ukraine, and cause a lot of domestic issues for the US if it isn't easy. Plus it would probably lead to a new South Caucasus war, with Iran defending Armenia and Azerbaijan pushing irredentist claims in Northern Iran. It would be a mess and essentially be the start of a world war.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:22
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slurm posted:I thought they weren't doing this not because these factories and training sites weren't legitimate targets but more because of the risk of MAD/NATO escalation? I'm not seeing how Iran can escalate in quite the same way and we only have a few weeks now to get this wrapped up before the US flips. Just because we could bomb targets in Iran without them nuking us does not mean we should. That would be a huge escalation on the U.S. part and likely lead to counter targeting of U.S. or NATO facilities by Iran or Russia. It's not a path we should want either side to go down. Also Iran's role right now seems quite minor, it would be very difficult to justify politically in the U.S.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:23
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FishBulbia posted:Not even the US has infinite resources. Launching a war in Iran would reduce aid that could be given to Ukraine, and cause a lot of domestic issues for the US if it isn't easy. Plus it would probably lead to a new South Caucasus war, with Iran defending Armenia and Azerbaijan pushing irredentist claims in Northern Iran. It would be a mess and essentially be the start of a world war. There's more than enough resources to bomb the poo poo out of Iran. That's not at all a concern, Ukraine just got a dozen HIMARS and rockets that aren't critical at all. It would be a bad idea of course, what they should do instead is give finally give ATACMS to Ukraine so they could blow up the Iranians in Crimea.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:25
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It would also pretty severely damage NATO's current soft power high ground.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:25
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slurm posted:With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation. If anyone it should be Israel but still no
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Oct 21, 2022 21:28
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Pook Good Mook posted:To add to other people, Iran and the US are selling arms (or really, mostly giving it away) to the parties involved. They are not parties.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:30
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FishBulbia posted:It would also pretty severely damage NATO's current soft power high ground. Anyway, good news from McTurtle https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1583501654371934215?t=lzCcKj8iO9QEJH-SNRc0_w&s=19 Hopefully we won't have to count on him having a majority to get the loving missiles
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Oct 21, 2022 21:30
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Pook Good Mook posted:To add to other people, Iran and the US are selling arms (or really, mostly giving it away) to the parties involved. They are not parties. Other than economic incentives, non-belligerents can sell weapons to belligerents. That is not quite comparable. The US is not sending military personnel into Ukraine to assist directly with the use of the equipment. Iran has personnel in Russia assisting with the use of the equipment - or according to some of the sources earlier in this thread - have personnel inside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine carrying out this assistance. The comparison would be apt if Ukraine had occupied part of Russia and the US had sent personnel to assist with operating HIMARS or something. Or if Russia had sent personnel to Iran for training. When Iranian military personnel is active in the warzone (be that in Ukraine or in Russia), they're a lot closer to co-belligerents than merely selling arms. If any ally of Ukraine sent active personnel inside Ukraine for training and 'advisory' - that would be considered a massive escalation. I know countries did this back in the cold war and it was just part of the whole 'proxy war' business. But so far that's been a hard red line in Ukraine. All that being said, I absolutely do not think the US should bomb Iran, but I do believe Iran is complicit in Russian war crimes by directly assisting with those, and not just providing the drones (or even training in Iran). And in the aftermath of this war, Iranian military personnel should be investigated for war crimes, and tried for those, if it can be proven they were actively assisting with these strikes. The Iranian state should also pay war reparations to Ukraine. They have gone beyond selling arms to participating in an unlawful war and potentially complicit to war crimes.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:30
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It feels dirty to say this but I hope McConnell can keep his grip on the GOP after the midterms
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Oct 21, 2022 21:31
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PederP posted:I'm an old fart, so maybe I can chip in a bit on this. Not to drag this parallel too far off topic, but I took the train from Split to Zagreb a couple months ago. It goes through parts of Croatia that were heavily populated by Serbs until 1996 (Knin) when the population went from 10% Croat/85% Serb to 80% Croat/15% Serb in the space of a few months. The ethnic cleansing/depopulation and ruin of all the little train stops was still striking, still in 2022. I didn’t notice any visible bullet hole damage, which I’ve seen in previous places long after the battles ended (eg Panama City downtown was still a war torn shithole until like 2015; it’s super trendy and fancy and expensive now), but it still looked pretty bad and beaten to absolute poo poo, a striking contrast from Zagreb, Istria, or anywhere on the coast really.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:37
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It's not exactly clear why it's considered okay for Iran to have people in Russia or Ukraine directly helping with the war effort, but if the US does the same thing that's a huge escalation. Really I just object in principle to the idea that doing the same thing being done to you is an "escalation", like if you get punched out of nowhere you gotta just sit there and take it because fighting back would be "escalating". I think the restriction on HIMARS being used to attack military targets in Russia is stupid for the same reason.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:37
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Iran sending small numbers of drone operators is not ok but it is not reason enough for the U.S. to act as world police and just bomb the poo poo out of them, likely killing civilians. That's the kind of thing we should be discouraging. It's an escalation on Russia/Irans part yes but that doesn't mean NATO has to respond in kind.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:39
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Cicero posted:It's not exactly clear why it's considered okay for Iran to have people in Russia or Ukraine directly helping with the war effort, but if the US does the same thing that's a huge escalation. We're so afraid of ~escalation~ that we walked straight into this war in the first place
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Oct 21, 2022 21:40
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Popete posted:Iran sending small numbers of drone operators is not ok but it is not reason enough for the U.S. to act as world police and just bomb the poo poo out of them, likely killing civilians. That's the kind of thing we should be discouraging.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:42
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Cicero posted:It's not exactly clear why it's considered okay for Iran to have people in Russia or Ukraine directly helping with the war effort, but if the US does the same thing that's a huge escalation. There are enough American nationals in Ukraine acting on a volunteer basis providing training. I'm sure if Ukraine buys any fancy new weapons systems there will be American contractors on site providing training and maintenance. I hesitate to call Iranian support personnel any more escalatory than the drone sales in the first place. It's standard operating procedure when it comes to sales of weapon systems with any degree of sophistication. Starting a war on this front would be dumb unless you're pulling a Bush II and just want any excuse to start a conflict.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:44
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Cicero posted:Fair, and yeah I agree attacking Iran would be dumb, but imo that Iran has drone instructors/operators there at least means it would not-escalation for Ukraine's allies to also send some instructors/operators to help with the war on their side. That is in fact escalation. Just because one side did it first doesn't mean the other side then stepping up their participation isn't also escalating the conflict. This is not the U.S. war, we are obviously very heavily involved but I really don't think we should be bombing 3rd party countries for also being involved. As mentioned that opens up the U.S./NATO to being attacked by Russia or other 3rd parties for effectively the same reasons.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:45
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slurm posted:With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation. Because nobody wants to expand the scope of this war any more than is strictly necessary to end it.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:47
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WarpedLichen posted:There are enough American nationals in Ukraine acting on a volunteer basis providing training. I'm sure if Ukraine buys any fancy new weapons systems there will be American contractors on site providing training and maintenance. We should absolutely blow them up right there though, no need to go to Iran.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:47
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PederP posted:[Balkan stuff] I'd just like to add that the peace process in the Balkans is still slowly crawling forward bit by bit now, twenty years later. There's some progress and the Berlin Process is meeting right now until November 3rd. There's a very EU-y process going on trying to build civic institutions for cooperation between the states. Today it was announced that they* will build visa-free travel between each other and have university degrees recognised across them. * Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Albania,Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo So at least that's something positive happening.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:48
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PederP posted:That is not quite comparable. The US is not sending military personnel into Ukraine to assist directly with the use of the equipment. Iran has personnel in Russia assisting with the use of the equipment - or according to some of the sources earlier in this thread - have personnel inside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine carrying out this assistance. You sure about that? I'm on board for thinking Russia/Iran are the bad guys are openly escalating and daring other countries so say something. But come on. America has people on the ground. They aren't operating the equipment like the Iranians, but I would bet every dollar in my pockets that there are Americans in western Ukrainian overseeing weapons deliveries and providing training. They basically admitted there were intelligence officers in Kyiv providing intelligence to Ukrainian government. We have Britain training troops on British soil that will then go and kill Russians. Can Russia bomb Cornwall? There are differences, but nominal ones.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:48
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WarpedLichen posted:There are enough American nationals in Ukraine acting on a volunteer basis providing training. I'm sure if Ukraine buys any fancy new weapons systems there will be American contractors on site providing training and maintenance. There really is a difference between providing training in Iran or even just somewhere outside of Moscow, and then having drone operators from the actual Iranian military in Crimea and Rostov helping out the units firing those drones right into residential blocks. The first is standard practice - the latter is cold war-style 'military advisors' which is really just being a co-belligerent without committing combat units. One could argue that the US providing intelligence to Ukraine is being a co-belligerent, but then you get into the whole deal about defensive vs offensive operations and who is the aggressor. If Iranian personnel is actually inside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine - Iran needs to pay war reparations and should be investigated for being complicit to war crimes. Just like if the US shared intelligence on targets inside Russia, and Ukraine used that information to commit war crimes - which they don't, but hypothetically speaking. Pook Good Mook posted:You sure about that? Of course I can't be more sure than what available sources report. But even if they were - Ukraine is being invaded. Russia is not. Iranian personal away from the front, inside Russia, would be a different story. I'm pretty sure American personnel is not in Russia helping Ukrainian units on the ground.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:51
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I mean every country puts intelligence officers everywhere even in peacetime. That's not the same thing at all. As for official military helping with logistics within Ukraine, no I really doubt that's happening. So far they seem to be careful not to send any official military personnel into Ukraine itself. Edit: I mean direct help, not, like, a military office in Kyiv helping to coordinate high level things.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:51
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Seriously I can't believe someone in this thread is advocating starting another war in the middle east (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 21, 2022 21:55
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A big flaming stink posted:Seriously I can't believe someone in this thread is advocating starting another war in the middle east What if we instigated some kind of revolution instead? Surely that couldn't back fire.
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Oct 21, 2022 21:59
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