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Cicero posted:I mean every country puts intelligence officers everywhere even in peacetime. That's not the same thing at all. Do we have sources besides the US DoD briefing on Iranian military personnel? I mean "official" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. If the Russian government is getting some contractors from the Iranian companies who manufactures the drones on site to provide support, that's what I'm expecting and roughly equivalent to US ex-military volunteers acting alongside the Ukrainian forces. If it's like the Iranian drone air wing actually performing the attacks, then yeah, that's being an active belligerent.
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Oct 21, 2022 22:01
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slurm posted:With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation. Primarily because there is currently some serious civil unrest in Iran. If the US starts airstriking the place, that is going to cause the unrest to end and people to rally to the flag. The unrest might ultimately not lead to anything, but there are reports from several different locations of the military switching sides, so there is still hope. You don't want to sabotage that if there's even a small chance.
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Oct 21, 2022 22:04
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A big flaming stink posted:Seriously I can't believe someone in this thread is advocating starting another war in the middle east We gotta bomb the critical infrastructure of our enemies in undeclared wars to stop putin's "special operation"
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Oct 21, 2022 22:11
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Popete posted:What if we instigated some kind of revolution instead? Surely that couldn't back fire. That doesn't seem to work that great. What if, instead, we help their government murder the protesters better? Would this help us get Iran on our side?
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Oct 21, 2022 22:12
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mobby_6kl posted:That doesn't seem to work that great. Please publish the rest of Elon's journal; it sounds amazing! https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1583472821719605249 Meanwhile, SecDef spoke with Shoigu. I'm gonna guess "Iran" was mentioned at least once.
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Oct 21, 2022 22:21
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If NATO isn't doing anything kinetic to Belarus for letting Russia invade and launch missiles/aircraft from their territory, they're not about to attack Iran over a handful of drone operators at worst. Ukraine on the other hand, I'm not sure how they felt about Iran before, but this will set a long historic precedent for how Ukraine treats Iran, barring a revolution which may or may not be in progress. Who knows, they might even get their hands on some of these operators/trainers if Russia has another catastrophic rout. What is going to happen is Iran getting sanctioned even harder... somehow.
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Oct 21, 2022 22:24
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I mean Iran doesn't have much to lose, they're already sanctioned to hell and back anyway.
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Oct 21, 2022 22:26
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I mean Iran doesn't have much to lose, they're already sanctioned to hell and back anyway. Iran really flip-flopped on this though, they didn't recognize the annexation in 2014, and even went through real efforts to compensate Ukraine after accidentally shooting down AUI 752 back when Trump was flipping a coin on whether to start a war with Iran. But then they abstained in denouncing this year's invasion in March, and now are actively supporting Russia's war of conquest. I guess the Supreme Leader figured if Russia was going to be his only friend, he had to do something real now to support that.
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Oct 21, 2022 22:39
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The impressive and impenetrable Wagner Line https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1583451756096167936?t=LojmEYHOJFwY9zIfNwlc4w&s=19 Not sure what use Ukraine will eventually find for 1 million or so small concrete pyramids.
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Oct 21, 2022 23:19
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I mean, I'm not an expert or anything but I can't seem to discern a use for those... things? They look useless. Are they supposed to be similar in function to the dragon's teeth that's dotted around Kyiv's perimeter among other places
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Oct 21, 2022 23:32
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It's Eastern Europe, they'll be cobbled together with abandoned T-62s to make farm implements.
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Oct 21, 2022 23:33
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I mean, I'm not an expert or anything but I can't seem to discern a use for those... things? They look useless. I know nothing but that will stop light vehicules. I doubt it would be much work for a bulldozer or something to move away. Have no idea if tanks can run through them but I wouldn't be surprised if they couldn't. Probably works to slow down an advance and help the defensive position
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Oct 21, 2022 23:43
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You can see them by the dozen in the back of the truck though, so they can't be very heavy and must be relying on those loops for some sort of cable anchor. I can't imagine they'd be hard to remove if you had a few hours without being shot at.
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Oct 21, 2022 23:45
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I would not want to rapidly drive a wheeled vehicle across them. Certainly, it would not take long to breach this element of the line, but it seems perfectly reasonable as a slowing effort. That appears to be what we are seeing across the line: slowing efforts.
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Oct 21, 2022 23:50
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KingColliwog posted:I know nothing but that will stop light vehicules. I doubt it would be much work for a bulldozer or something to move away. Have no idea if tanks can run through them but I wouldn't be surprised if they couldn't. Probably works to slow down an advance and help the defensive position Yeah I don't think these alone are meant to stop an offensive force but all we have is a 22 second clip of some dragons teeth being laid down from a guy who also earlier today Tweeted that Ukraine should pull off a "Doolittle Raid" on Moscow, so you know maybe not the most unbiased source.
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Oct 21, 2022 23:51
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Flappy Bert posted:You can see them by the dozen in the back of the truck though, so they can't be very heavy and must be relying on those loops for some sort of cable anchor. I can't imagine they'd be hard to remove if you had a few hours without being shot at. The whole point is to shoot at the people who are trying to remove them. If you aren’t doing that as the defender, you hosed up.
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Oct 21, 2022 23:58
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I'm no expert, but it seems to me that unless each one of those little Toblerone chunks has a big-rear end mine underneath it, one shot from an advancing tank's main gun should clear a wide enough path for armour to get through, then the following infantry can just drag the rest out of the way.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:28
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I don't know for sure about a T-72, but an M1 wouldn't even notice those unless they're buried to the depth of their apparent height. Even then it would only notice them as it pushed them aside. 70 tons generates a lot of power. I would worry than some clever engineer put an AT mine right in front of them, though. That could make me a mobility kill and easy to get poo poo by an ATGM team. This is why we use combined arms, though.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:30
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Ynglaur posted:I don't know for sure about a T-72, but an M1 wouldn't even notice those unless they're buried to the depth of their apparent height. Even then it would only notice them as it pushed them aside. 70 tons generates a lot of power. Looking at the truck hauling them on the video, assuming it’s a single layer of those inside, they seem to be about a yard tall overall - potentially buried just like you describe. I’ll try to find a bare one in full sight, if I can. Edit: Looks like they’re in fact piled up in multiple layers there, and in best case scenario, for Russian soldiers, have a separately mounted base, since the pyramids in the tweet are about 50 cm tall, a generic European long haul truck wheel’s diameter. https://twitter.com/tiamat007/status/1582755648130887680 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Oct 22, 2022 |
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Oct 22, 2022 00:33
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Payndz posted:I'm no expert, but it seems to me that unless each one of those little Toblerone chunks has a big-rear end mine underneath it, one shot from an advancing tank's main gun should clear a wide enough path for armour to get through, then the following infantry can just drag the rest out of the way. It is true that there are many ways to move one of these out of the way. I would venture that infantry dragging them through mud is not the most efficient way to do so. You will note the mobile crane emplacing them; that's because they are far too heavy for even several men to move by hand. As has been noted, they are partially buried, rather than dropped on the surface.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:36
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Ynglaur posted:I don't know for sure about a T-72, but an M1 wouldn't even notice those unless they're buried to the depth of their apparent height. Even then it would only notice them as it pushed them aside. 70 tons generates a lot of power. MCLC would turn all of it to useless rubble inside a few seconds that a tank could just drive right over and completely ignore. The Mine Clearing Line Charge is basically a long rear end string of explosives that gets launched out of launcher to make a long line of explosions that detonate mines and clear a path through a mine field. Don't know specifically if Ukraine has them but I wouldn't see them as being difficult to get. Vehicle mounted launcher if memory serves, so that would be the hardest part to get in to Ukraine's hands.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:40
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bird food bathtub posted:MCLC would turn all of it to useless rubble inside a few seconds that a tank could just drive right over and completely ignore. The Mine Clearing Line Charge is basically a long rear end string of explosives that gets launched out of launcher to make a long line of explosions that detonate mines and clear a path through a mine field. Don't know specifically if Ukraine has them but I wouldn't see them as being difficult to get. Vehicle mounted launcher if memory serves, so that would be the hardest part to get in to Ukraine's hands. Ukraine did capture one of those from Russia, at least, though I dunno about the ammo. The Russians have been known to use them to... level entire street city blocks.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:41
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They left the lifting eyelets on them. Someone with a Jeep and a rope with a hook can probably remove them.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:41
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Payndz posted:I'm no expert, but it seems to me that unless each one of those little Toblerone chunks has a big-rear end mine underneath it, one shot from an advancing tank's main gun should clear a wide enough path for armour to get through, then the following infantry can just drag the rest out of the way. Lol,no it wouldn't but a tank could just drive over them anyway, carefully. But the tank can't be sure that there aren't anti-tank mines around it. And anyone going to check can't be sure that there aren't anti-personnel mines as well. And even if there are no such things, it will slow down the advance enough for artillery to start pounding the area. And even if that doesn't stop them, it will channel the supply trucks, and so on ad infinitum... So it's some kind of obstacle. Depends on other things if it actually matters.
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Oct 22, 2022 00:42
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bird food bathtub posted:MCLC would turn all of it to useless rubble inside a few seconds that a tank could just drive right over and completely ignore. The Mine Clearing Line Charge is basically a long rear end string of explosives that gets launched out of launcher to make a long line of explosions that detonate mines and clear a path through a mine field. Don't know specifically if Ukraine has them but I wouldn't see them as being difficult to get. Vehicle mounted launcher if memory serves, so that would be the hardest part to get in to Ukraine's hands. MCLCs are a pushing charge that use the blast to throw mines out of the way and clear the lane. They do cause sympathetic detonations but that's just a benefit. If those teeth are solid they will barely notice a MCLC charge.
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Oct 22, 2022 01:24
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Barriers aren't meant to be impenetrable or immovable, they just have to reduce freedom of movement. Their utility is in discouraging advances or, if that fails, forcing people to stop out in the middle of a field to do whatever manhandling is necessary, at which point the defenders watching the line fire atgms and call in artillery on them (you do have people watching the defenses, right?). They also limits the ability of Ukrainian lighter vehicles to just zip around russian positions at will. idk how effective it'll be, particularly at the rather slow rate at which they're placing them, but conceptually that kind of barrier is effective enough so long as it's integrated into a greater defensive plan. Ditches are similarly effective (particularly if you're worried about rampaging light mechanized units flanking and encircling you at will on Ukraine's steppes). Tbh I'm surprised that we don't see far more use of ditches, albeit in anywhere remotely close to the front line you'd be exceptionally exposed while out digging one. On a related note, you see surprisingly few berms around Russian positions. You also see very, very few armored/military bulldozers, which is unusual for modern conflicts. In spite of that, it seems like the real reason you see so few prominently fortified positions is the threat of artillery and drones and air-strikes against anything that is visible from above or otherwise prominent in the local landscape. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Oct 22, 2022 |
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Oct 22, 2022 01:40
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The line is currently 1.6km long, so a 20 minute walk will bypass it.
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Oct 22, 2022 01:59
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Comstar posted:The line is currently 1.6km long, so a 20 minute walk will bypass it. they're building it at a brisk pace of about a kilometer a week
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Oct 22, 2022 02:02
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:I mean, I'm not an expert or anything but I can't seem to discern a use for those... things? They look useless. They're supposed to be Dragon's Teeth obstacles. If properly implemented they work as obstacle by breaking the track on tanks by concentrating the weight of the tank onto a point when driven over. They're just putting them on the ground though. The Ukrainians can just have a civie bullodzer push them out of the way. Or use explosives to blast them off to the side I guess. They're supposed to be sunk into the ground, or ideally, embedded into a concrete slab that is sunk into the ground to prevent a bulldozer from just pushing them aside or from being blown away by explosives. That and the fact they're placing them far behind the front lines is just weirdly stupid. The most favorable interpretation I've seen is they're expecting to be pushed back that far at some point.
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Oct 22, 2022 03:09
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:They're supposed to be Dragon's Teeth obstacles. If properly implemented they work as obstacle by breaking the track on tanks by concentrating the weight of the tank onto a point when driven over. What would the Russians have to do if they actually wanted to dig in and build up the defenses of a particular area, if they actually had time to do it? Is such a thing actually possible in modern war, or does defending an area all just rely on having enough masses of artillery and troops in a given spot?
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Oct 22, 2022 03:16
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So the ISW ia claiming that the Russian evacuation of the west bank of the Dnipro is underway. https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1583626480935845890 Which makes me wonder if any or all of Russia'e posturing about blowing up the dam is just to cover their retreat. Like "let us leave without attacking us or we'll blow the dam" kind of situation.
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Oct 22, 2022 03:34
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Comstar posted:The line is currently 1.6km long, so a 20 minute walk will bypass it. Yeah at this point it seems short to enough to bypass without losing much time, would be more effective if they put them near a bridge or somewhere other than a plain flat field. You know what wouldn't have any problem with it? Horses. Bring back the cavalry imo, it's time to go full Cossack on their asses.
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Oct 22, 2022 03:38
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Sucrose posted:What would the Russians have to do At best it'll act as a speed bump of sorts for enemy forces. So as far as I can tell (from the comfort of my armchair as non-expert) what the Russians really need(ed from day 1) for defense is to get air superiority. As long as they continue to fail to get air superiority Ukraine can continue to mount large offenses which have a good chance of success since the Russian logistics, training, and morale all appear to be in bad shape.
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Oct 22, 2022 03:38
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Could the Ukrainians use anti-tank missiles from a distance to take out the dragon’s teeth? Not a Javelin in NLAW, but something simple and cheaper like a M72.
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Oct 22, 2022 04:55
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Mr. Apollo posted:Could the Ukrainians use anti-tank missiles from a distance to take out the dragon’s teeth? Not a Javelin in NLAW, but something simple and cheaper like a M72. lol if it were that easy then the tanks themselves could just shoot the dragon teeth
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Oct 22, 2022 05:03
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:
It's Russia, so maybe it's the Commissars trying to prevent the Russian Army from retreating. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 22, 2022 05:03
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Mr. Apollo posted:Could the Ukrainians use anti-tank missiles from a distance to take out the dragon’s teeth? Not a Javelin in NLAW, but something simple and cheaper like a M72. LAW's are too small. You'd want something a lot bigger than that but I don't know exactly how much. Something like a MCLC I guess could do it if they're just laid on the ground. If they're installed properly you'd need a whole more expolsives than that.
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Oct 22, 2022 05:19
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spankmeister posted:Which makes me wonder if any or all of Russia'e posturing about blowing up the dam is just to cover their retreat. Like "let us leave without attacking us or we'll blow the dam" kind of situation. One theory I've seen is that they're floating rumors about mining the dam in order to try and make locals evacuate to Crimea or other Russian-held parts of the country
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Oct 22, 2022 05:19
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Oct 22, 2022 05:31
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Old James posted:If you are thinking the dam burst would make it easier to cross where the reservoir had once been, it's probably all silt and muck under that water. It'd be like trying to ford quicksand. I was thinking in a year or so but point taken. 
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