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Sports gambling is pretty much the same as all other types of gambling. If you can find bets that are +EV, and make them more than -EV bets consistently over a long period, statistically your bankroll will increase. but depending on the type of gambling that ranges from difficult to impossible With casino games it's obviously impossible because the house doesn't provide any +EV bets, just ones on a range of bad to insanely bad In poker you can make decisions that are +EV based on the most likely cards in your opponents hands, but that can be offset by the behavior of opponents. It's difficult to learn how to be winning at poker and the ups and downs are brutal. Sports gambling seems to be in the middle of those extremes. the odds are set such that every bet is supposed to be -EV, so you have to beat the vig somehow. Maybe the odds makers for some reason got things wrong on a particular bet and it's actually +EV, but maybe not. Betting big on underdogs seems like a terrible system, those odds are already super unfavorable for the gambler WorldIndustries fucked around with this message at 21:51 on Sep 15, 2022 |
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Sep 15, 2022 21:48
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So bet big on Nate Diaz, got it
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Sep 15, 2022 22:37
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It is more difficult than it used to be with MMA betting, too. Bookies are more informed about fighters and lines are much tighter regardless of talent disparities. Also, reminder that Jase hit bottom more than once over the years. Each time he did, he'd resort to pool hustling to build a bankroll back up again. I know that lifetime his gambling was positive, but he lost a loooooot to get there.
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Sep 15, 2022 23:13
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Head Bee Guy posted:So bet big on Nate Diaz, got it why bet a little to win a lot when you can bet a lot to win a little? Bunni-kat posted:For our mma brethren not in-the-know, betting on the Undertaker to beat Brock Lesnar is literally the safest sports bet possible. Story line is the Undertaker is 21-0 at Wrestlemania. DannoMack posted:Bet way more than I can afford to lose on the Undertaker. Scapegoat posted:I'm guessing there is also a size limit so the script writers can't drop a million on a sure thing? DannoMack posted:My site didn't have a limit. Gyro Zeppeli posted:They take bets on it so who cares. Fozzy The Bear posted:Found his ticket
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Sep 15, 2022 23:25
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Marching Powder posted:why bet a little to win a lot when you can bet a lot to win a little? loving  I don't think I've ever seen this.
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Sep 15, 2022 23:32
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i just waded back through the thread to judge how i did as a degenerate. there used to be some amazing lines available every now and again, like i was fairly confident putting down 200 on rose to beat joanna and she was a +500 dog and that was a big bet for me and i hit that. unfortunately though i would regularly hit something big and then just squander in a fit of sheer degeneracy. like this time i put all the rose money on kelvin to beat jacare at +130. i won this one would you believe, but lost sooo many others. my most success came in the way of parlays. some memorable ones include picking black beast to beat ngannou and dc to beat stipe and won 500 off of a 50 bet. also that time i put 2 dollars on a whole-card 12-fight parlay and hit it to win like 400. ultimately though i was loving terrible lol deposited: $5850 won: $2738 total loss: $3112 this thread cost me a bit over 3k. worth it. on my travels, i found the post i recalled. jase1 posted:I had about 200k saved up from shooting pool over the years and I took that money and bought the company I was working for when the owner retired. I owned it for about 6 years and then sold it for just over 3.5 mil to a finance company in New York who just wanted my customer list. I now have a stock portfolio and was able to retire at the age of 40. I bought a house for cash in Florida and now have a financial advisor who helps make money from all of that. I pay myself a salary every month out of that and none of that money ever gets touched and never will get touched for gambling. I make more money a month than my salary I pay myself per month so I am doing fine. My gambling bankroll is about 200k give or take a few grand depending on how I am doing. Sports betting is just for fun and I made about 5k total overall last year from it. I bet about 10k a week on the NFL during the season and then I usually only place a few homer bets on the Cavs through out the season and then I will bet things like the world series or other major sporting events. If my bankroll gets low I just go back to shooting pool for awhile which is so boring to me it's like a job and I hate it. I could travel around and hustle dummies for a living and make great money but in this day and age with so many guns it's just not wise. I make most of my money from mid stakes omaha high low and NL holdem. The casino in Cleveland was gold mine and padded my bankroll so I could make fun bets on MMA. Anytime I won money at MMA I either bought my wife a present, bought myself into the main event of the WSOP this past year or wasted it all on Roulette and craps. If my bookie is hanging out with me when I win on MMA I mostly just blew the money in front of him it's like a tradition we have to gently caress with each other. RIP
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Sep 16, 2022 00:54
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I am currently +$17 on my book. Two weeks ago, I was -$45 or so. I only wager in $5 increments, and mostly put money on live dogs and the occasional stupid parlay. I’ve also been able to restock a few times in the past year with free promo prop bets on dumb NFL poo poo, otherwise I’d probably be closer to zero. My biggest regret was not paying close attention, and misclicking on Poirier vs McGregor 1. I thought I’d won big off of Dustin, and then looked at the drat slip and realized I’d wagered wrong. The line on the rematch wasn’t worth a poo poo. Missed opportunity. The biggest win so far was putting 5 on Roxy to beat Antonina Schevchenko. Never underestimate a nerd fighting someone with an undeserved ego.
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Sep 16, 2022 02:33
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My best wins probably came from Weidman beating Silva twice but I never put down a lot of money to begin with. I also lost money on every single McGregor fight up to the first Diaz fight. I also convinced my cousin to not bet the farm on Holm against Rousey. Needless to say I do not bet on MMA anymore. Speaking of mass bets, I was not here for the Mark Coleman vs Randy Couture era of PSPMMA betting, but it seemed really funny from the stories.
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Sep 16, 2022 04:48
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canoshiz posted:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cQOej9nuho
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Sep 16, 2022 05:38
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i have an fairly good interest/understanding in statistical baseball/hockey prediction, and I do a lot of data stuff in my day job, so I've considered trying to build a basic model or trying to do some basic ML on it, but I don't think I would have as much fun as "209 bitch" and "Usman looka deflated" as my reasoning for betting, so I haven't looked into it further. from what I know about gambling in general, the places to make serious money are probably on some of the weirder betting lines, like # of rounds and likelihood to finish and stuff like that. there's a good article about Haralabos Voulgaris, who was a pro NBA bettor and poker player and then got hired by Dallas: https://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler one of the things he made a lot of his money on was just total points in basketball because Vegas didn't account for the halves of the game not typically having the same # of points. I interviewed a VP of Data/Analytics from Caesar's a couple of years ago and asked him about how solid they have MMA down and he said basically yeah, the less known/popular/statistically studied a sport is, the more likely it is that the casinos haven't done a lot of that work either. So MMA is a decent candidate for building a model and getting an edge since there's not a lot of public statistical analysis on it and it's pretty new.
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Sep 16, 2022 10:34
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what's everyone got for this weekend. I can't decide if I really like Makachev at -190 or Charles at +160. One of those feels like a great bet, but I dunno if I'm smart enough to figure it out. Leaning towards Islam. I like Sterling at -175, but not sure if I like it enough to bet yet Definitely going to take O'Malley at +225, probably by decision, too. Dariush at +160 looks great, too, as does Belal at +120.
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Oct 20, 2022 02:08
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Can't bet on the main event until the weigh ins, you never know. Agree on Beneil and Belal. O'Malley is gonna get destroyed.
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Oct 20, 2022 02:26
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I have a workout in the middle of the prelims so I can't even drink during the main card let alone gamble on it. Might think about money on Makachev so if Oliveira wins I'm still happy. That was someone's play here for his last fight. Shumagorath fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Oct 20, 2022 |
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Oct 20, 2022 02:38
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:what's everyone got for this weekend. I feel like that is your biggest miss. He's never beat a top 15 fighter, and now he's going up against the former champ? If he does win, its going to be an early KO.
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Oct 20, 2022 02:54
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Fozzy The Bear posted:I feel like that is your biggest miss. He's never beat a top 15 fighter, and now he's going up against the former champ? If he does win, its going to be an early KO. completely get that, but it feels like: taller + younger fighter generally has a really good chance. I also like Sean's mind games so far. Yan has that moron thing that I like to talk about where he might try and knock Sean out instead of just taking him down and grinding him out. If he tries that, Sean is a very live dog imo.
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Oct 20, 2022 22:44
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Betting on MMA fighters to be dumb is a solid system.
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Oct 21, 2022 03:11
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i bet a fiver on charles and a fiver on yan to win by finish. oliveira bet is pure homerism, while i think o'malley is either gonna be finished early, or late, depending on how sprightly yan is feeling. if there was a prop bet for o'malley to break his hands and possibly legs on yan's indestructible head and body i would have put my life savings on it.
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Oct 21, 2022 15:58
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Parlay of Brady to win and Brady with most significant strikes @ +130, $10 to win $23 O'Malley to win @ +215, $20 to win $63 O'Malley by decision @ +500, $7.25 to win $43.50 Aljo to win @ -175, $20 to win $31.42 Dariush to win @ +170, $20 to win $54 Parlay of Makhachev to win, in round 1, with most takedowns and most significant strikes @ +700, $5 to win $40 Parlay of Dariush, O'Malley, Aljo, and Makhachev @ +2360, $20 to win $492.11 I think I might lose literally all of these lol. I feel bad betting against Do Bronx but I think the odds on Islam are really good and it's on his turf.
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Oct 22, 2022 17:46
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:O'Malley to win @ +215, $20 to win $63 How much did it cost to pay off the judges?
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Oct 22, 2022 21:01
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Fozzy The Bear posted:How much did it cost to pay off the judges? Probably just under $598.61
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Oct 22, 2022 21:07
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:Parlay of Brady to win and Brady with most significant strikes @ +130, $10 to win $23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deNk2qHA3FA
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Oct 22, 2022 21:56
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jase is with us this day
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Oct 22, 2022 22:01
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:Parlay of Brady to win and Brady with most significant strikes @ +130, $10 to win $23 way to go!
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Oct 22, 2022 23:01
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gj
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Oct 23, 2022 08:51
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Marching Powder posted:jase is with us this day
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Oct 24, 2022 14:32
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Anderson Silva is showing up as a betting underdog with many places vs Jake Paul. Might be worth it to throw a few $ on him. But them again Silva is 47 years old.
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Oct 27, 2022 00:34
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Fozzy The Bear posted:Anderson Silva is showing up as a betting underdog with many places vs Jake Paul. Thanks for reminding me lol. He's +150 on DraftKings. I don't know how to handicap the odds on whether the fight is fixed. even at this age, I think Andy could easily purposefully lose over 8 rounds without taking too much damage. But how likely is he to do that? if I knew it was a straight up fight I would jump at those odds, which makes me think it's not straight up. Uriah Hall is only -390 against Leveon Bell, which seems like crazy easy money. Not sure if I'll bet on that though.
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Oct 27, 2022 01:26
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Yeah if I was sure it was a straight up fight I'd bet on Andy to put him away in less than 3
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Oct 27, 2022 01:35
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Anderson himself could tell me the fight was fixed and I still would not allow myself to profit off the Paul brothers.
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Oct 27, 2022 01:38
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 God drat! I know he's 47 years old, but its freaking Anderson Silva.... https://twitter.com/_FIGHTING_WORLD/status/1583947111594590209 Fozzy The Bear fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Oct 28, 2022 |
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Oct 28, 2022 22:05
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Fozzy The Bear posted:
Paul's team have shown they are quite astute at picking opponents for him. So while I agree they likely know something we don't know.
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Oct 28, 2022 22:37
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anderson apparently said he got knocked out twice in sparring and changed it to knocked down twice when the comission got curious about it. still, i can't avoid betting on old man anderson (old manderson?) to win. $23.68 (to round my account down to an even number when paul kills him) to win $68.67.
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Oct 28, 2022 23:15
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Video I saw had him change it to "guys you know I joked (lied) about that to make my sparring partners sound good", I dunno what the timeline is on the stories. I don't think he's gonna let himself get caught like Woodley but I also don't think he's gonna try very hard to do damage or win, we'll see though. Edit: Here's what I originally saw: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZgES6fmpRg But I'm realizing now you can't hear poo poo in that video so here's a version with better audio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCNVYkUKY1g Further edit: poo poo just realized what thread we're in, uh, yeah don't bet on this fight lmao. Brut fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Oct 29, 2022 |
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Oct 29, 2022 00:58
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I hope the fix is in, but Anderson bet on himself and wins, and the Paul bros vlog their clown-rear end attempt at a manhunt.
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Oct 29, 2022 01:45
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$440 on jake.
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Oct 29, 2022 02:13
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JOHN CENA posted:$440 on jake. rad
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Oct 29, 2022 09:26
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Eat This Glob posted:anderson apparently said he got knocked out twice in sparring and changed it to knocked down twice when the comission got curious about it. JOHN CENA posted:$440 on jake. I really hope the former bet is the winner tonight.
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Oct 29, 2022 15:30
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i dont wanna win here guys,
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Oct 29, 2022 16:44
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they're not cashing in the undefeated jake paul train for anderson silva
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Oct 29, 2022 18:07
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I put $200 on Silva, you guys are crazy. I should have put money on Silva to KO, but I just spent all my money on my wedding anniversary dinner.
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Oct 29, 2022 20:57
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