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DarkCrawler posted:All the voters? No. Republican voters, absolutely. Drop the decorum and start rallying the actual masses they are loving over, intentionally and gleefully on a daily basis against Republican voters. If you believe such methods don't lead to political success and widespread media coverage because of the controversy, I would like to point out the entire modern history of the Republican Party. The problem with this is that in the US money selects our candidates. You don't end up with leftists ideas being touted often because most of the democrats are pretty much beholden to special interest groups, the wealthy, and corporations. It is why Bernie was so refreshing because he actually wanted to help americans and you can tell it wasn't lipservice. Many people are turned off by how crappy both parties are and the fact that they no longer actively work in the interest of the people that really need the government for help. Leftists will actively work to curtail those interests that is why you have people putting up extremely pro corporate challengers to Ilhan Omar and AOC. This is also why Chesa Boudin got recalled. I don't believe that the majority of democrats want to materially improve peoples lives in a significant way because it would upset the status quo that gets them campaign donations and sinecure type jobs. The other problem is how our government runs. They will always find a reason why we can't get the things we as citizens wants because of the parliamentarian or a couple of conservative dems. If it wasn't Manchin and Sinema it would have been Coons and Tester so on and so forth. The only thing that can change this is enough poor people getting invested in politics and working to make many small donations to actual good politicians. The problem is most poor people don't vote or have the means to be active in politics be it time or money.
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Oct 27, 2022 15:32
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Mooseontheloose posted:I can't find the article anymore so take this with a grain of salt but I thought during the 2020 election someone looked at Biden's positions as compared to other leftist parties across Europe and he actually ends up center left and would fit within those parties policies. But of course, I Can't find the article anymore cause its buried under all sorts of crappy political analysis from the last 2 years. I think something that is lost on a lot of US political analysis is the move of traditionally left leaning parties in western democracies rightwards on economic issues is a global phenomenon. I'm not that familiar with Piketty's whole argument, but these graphs demonstrate the phenomenon nicely I think. As the social base of traditionally left parties has changed, their politics have shifted towards the center on economic issues.: https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1398998881912848392 So yes, Biden would fit in with a lot of the social democratic parties of Europe, but this is partially because those parties have shifted in his direction.
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Oct 27, 2022 15:38
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I think that's an inevitable result of the effect of money on politics. It all shifts in the direction of the moneyed interests as everyone naturally follows what is going to work out best for them, getting more money. It's almost Randian
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Oct 27, 2022 15:40
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The Mark Blyth book angrynomics covers it pretty well. Leftist parties abandoning the working class for some sort of “woke capitalist” centrist agenda has a lot to do with how central banks, politicians and the big players in the private sector reconfigured the economy when Keynesianism led to stagflation. He repeats himself a lot but I think the way global economics are organized is a lot like a hardware/software relationship in tech. We’re living in a modernized version of the classical economics system that dominated the period until the Great Depression. It’s very much a zero sum game where central banks make dispassionate decisions that treat labour and consumers (drivers of demand) as emotionless automatons that live forever and plug perfectly into a machine. The problem with this is it doesn’t work. The more you gently caress with these variables the more those groups lash out politically with anger and hate which provides fuel for fascist and reactionary parties we all thought had zero chances of winning any kind of power just 35 years ago. It’s why you have culture wars. There’s no other place for the anger and economic dissatisfaction to go. It’s being channeled in various ways and the inevitable long term conclusion of this unaddressed anger is fascism. We had the exact same debate in the Great Depression and back then the western countries were smart enough to strike a compromise between fascism and communism and come up with Keynesianism to stabilize their economies and placate their masses. Today we are being told there is no alernative (TINA) and many of the smart, educated, ivory tower technocrats are arrogantly clinging to their power and “authority” while becoming increasingly discredited in the eyes of the public. Simply put our world economic theory, the agreed upon way in which we exchange resources and money to many people feels as eternal and immutable as the law of conservation of mass. This necessitates extremely creative out of box solutions we haven’t tried before. When Friedman and Hayek rebooted the global economy in the 1970s it coincided with the start of a tech boom that created instantaneous frictionless movement of money between nations such that capital was free to pursue higher returns no matter where they went. Today because of Covid, anti immigrant tendencies and other aspects leading to labour once again having bargaining power, we are once again entering an era of inflation. To be fair a lot of the inflation is corporations juicing their margins but the fact is that aggregate demand is up across the board due to a perfect storm of labour shortages, supply chain issues and corporate opportunism to capture the extra buying power from the public. Where am I going with this? Governments and central banks can’t roll the clock back to the new deal. It won’t work for a number of reasons. Unemployed students disadvantaged by the 2008 economic crisis were not just gonna to show up to a work camp in an Arizona desert to dig ditches. It simply isn’t happening. Austerity and conservative policies won’t work either because that’s what brought us here in the first place. So we have to rethink how the entire modern economy works. It’s inevitable that someone will try something else it’s just a question of how long these stodgy old technocrats in grey suits will cling to the levers of economic policy before something gives. You won’t be able to tax the rich because the rich can move their money faster and more creatively than lawmakers can keep up. There’s a massive industry of accountants and bankers fully geared towards doing this. You’re never bringing back textile mills and non essential mass manufacturing to the rust belt so you can forget about that as well. That leaves us with MMT and sovereign wealth funds. The government and the central banks will need to use their powers to creatively inject money to the people who need it most without raising taxes or alienating big business. Fundamentally the CEO of Apple or Google is not going to give a gently caress about what you’re doing to help lower class people buy a home or get an education because that benefits their business by creating most customers and bigger talent pools for them to hire from. They just want to do business without government interference. So a compromise can be struck with the private sector and conservative elements of society on economics if we can agree upon new and creative ways to fund social programs without loving with international business. Because let’s face it, there is no government powerful enough to stop the free movement of money anymore. And good luck getting the entire world to agree upon a globally oriented corporate tax system. There will always be “free riders” trying to benefit from not following those rules and they’re near impossible to enforce anyway. Look how hard it’s been enforcing trade embargoes on Russia? Now imagine trying to punish a country like China if they decided corporate taxes should be 5% while everyone else’s taxes are 80%? The bottom line is the material conditions problem won’t be solved politically at the ballot box. It requires a smart creative thinker, or a group of them to seize power at the federal reserve level AND have enough clout with the private sector to get them to buy into an untested and unattempted economic model we haven’t seen before. I’ll conclude this essay by reminding everyone Jimmy Carter and Reagan did very little politically and from a policy perspective with regards to stagflation and the 1980s economic situation that came after A lot of that was the federal reserve working behind the scenes to try and combat stagflation. Reagan’s trickle down economics certainly helped the rich get richer but the economic boom that came with it was in spite of him rather than because of him.
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Oct 27, 2022 16:18
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Mooseontheloose posted:
Yup and the right is getting offered a pretty stark vision "Elect us and we'll rid you of troublesome minorities and women. We'll restore the rightful rule of White Christians to the country. All we ask for in exchange is absolute power and your money." And they are a-ok with that. I feel like we've already gone off the cliff because the idea that we can win on vision just doesn't seem like a reality anymore. They know our vision. An equitable world where everyone is treated the same and is provided fair opportunities. They don't want that. Doesn't matter if that tide raises their boat too. They will sink their own boat if it also takes down a minority's boat. I don't know what the answer is, but I don't think the problem is that we aren't communicating our vision well enough. It's just that the right loathes it.
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Oct 27, 2022 16:35
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BonoMan posted:I feel like we've already gone off the cliff because the idea that we can win on vision just doesn't seem like a reality anymore. They know our vision. An equitable world where everyone is treated the same and is provided fair opportunities. They don't want that.
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Oct 27, 2022 16:50
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ilkhan posted:That isn't the policy of modern day democrats. We know it's not the actual policy but I'd argue it's the vision they're trying to sell.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:02
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So the Democrats' vision is a pack of lies and voters know this, which proves that the voters are reactionaries?
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Oct 27, 2022 17:09
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Halloween Jack posted:So the Democrats' vision is a pack of lies and voters know this, which proves that the voters are reactionaries? Huh? I'm not arguing voters are reactionary? I'm just saying you aren't going to bridge the current political divide with better messaging on your vision. The right doesn't want your vision. They don't care about the real one or the mythical one. They want white male christian rule and anything less than that can gently caress off.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:13
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Polling continues to be stupid: https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585415595893608449 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585360101082562560 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585638364593934339 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585652545875283968 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585647480598720512 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585648868133412864 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585654904676356096 At this point, we can safely say that there will be either a red wave, a blue wave, or somewhere in between.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:16
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https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/26/democrats-washington-patty-murray-senate-00063447 uhh guys?
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Oct 27, 2022 17:17
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BonoMan posted:Huh? I'm not arguing voters are reactionary? I'm just saying you aren't going to bridge the current political divide with better messaging on your vision. The right doesn't want your vision. They don't care about the real one or the mythical one. They want white male christian rule and anything less than that can gently caress off.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:24
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pencilhands posted:https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/26/democrats-washington-patty-murray-senate-00063447 What's up? Are you asking us why the media is fearmongering over a Dem's advantage slipping from 51-33 in July to 49-41 now? Probably because the media loves to get people worked up with horserace narratives.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:26
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Main Paineframe posted:What's up? I would say that the concern might be more that money is being diverted to that race (which implies that the Dems are secretly expecting a red wave and are backing down to playing defense), but that probably has an explanation as well. The competitive races are all saturated to the point where an extra dollar on top of what was already spent wont do much, vs throwing a few million to some states of mild concern to shore them up might be money better spent.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:28
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ilkhan posted:If the voters want your vision but know your vision isn't what they are actually getting... I'm talking about the idea that the left could win over right wing voters with better messaging on vision is ridiculous. I'm not sure what you're talking about.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:29
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Main Paineframe posted:What's up? No I’m wondering if it’s not a real concern why anyone would be sending so much money
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Oct 27, 2022 17:30
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Also, cut through the noise. If all the polls are ping-ponging between +5 to -5 for your preferred choice. It USUALLY means that it's mostly a toss up and it becomes about turnout. Though, closer to 5 is not great.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:33
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pencilhands posted:No I’m wondering if it’s not a real concern why anyone would be sending so much money Because the Dems make gently caress tons so they can spread to areas that might be weaker or having issues.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:37
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Because the Dems make gently caress tons so they can spread to areas that might be weaker or having issues. so it may be a real issue then?
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Oct 27, 2022 17:38
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Our media doing the horse race thing is complete bullshit. Some things are just lies. Comparing two things that are drastically different and calling them similar is such a diservice.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:39
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pencilhands posted:so it may be a real issue then? Some donor groups might think so or they might just think it's the closest thing to a real issue they have to throw this money at
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Oct 27, 2022 17:45
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Rigel posted:I would say that the concern might be more that money is being diverted to that race (which implies that the Dems are secretly expecting a red wave and are backing down to playing defense), but that probably has an explanation as well. The competitive races are all saturated to the point where an extra dollar on top of what was already spent wont do much, vs throwing a few million to some states of mild concern to shore them up might be money better spent. pencilhands posted:No I’m wondering if it’s not a real concern why anyone would be sending so much money Despite the clickbaity headline, the article doesn't actually point to a lot of Dem money being diverted to the race. The only thing it mentions is Emily's List putting $2.4 million into the race, but it also points out that they'd already put several million bucks behind Murray - they were one of her top donors even before this. Other than that, it just talks about the Murray campaign's own spending, and a "small television spot" in coordination with the DSCC. In fact, the party diverting money to that race is the GOP - Murray's opponent significantly outraised her in Q3, and millions of dollars have been flowing into super PACs backing Smiley. Though the article also notes that the national GOP establishment doesn't really see it as a serious pickup possibility, and the NRSC has largely ignored the race.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:46
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Hmm. I see.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:48
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ManBoyChef posted:Our media doing the horse race thing is complete bullshit. Some things are just lies. Comparing two things that are drastically different and calling them similar is such a diservice. I mean, no poo poo. They want a horse race and eyes on screens and ad revenue. If that means making up headlines or other poo poo, then they will. Not much I can do is vote and encourage others to do so.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:50
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I wish they had to put error bars on their estimates like nearly every other professional prediction services does
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Oct 27, 2022 17:51
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There's no grand narrative here, the simple fact is the left in the US especially but the developed world generally is just terrified of power and believes that wielding it in any way is inherently immoral. Everything else is downstream of that and worthy of not much more than a passing thought. They're a non-factor, just ignore them if that makes your prognostications easier.pencilhands posted:https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/26/democrats-washington-patty-murray-senate-00063447 Please add a bit of context when posting a link so people know what point you're trying to put forward in sharing it. This isn't a mod warning or anything just advice since undescribed links tend to share the same fate as youtube links posted so they do not embed.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:54
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I have no idea what people ITT are talking about when they talk about the Left. It seems like a bogey onto which we can project whatever notions are bothering us at the moment, especially if they're contradictory and mutually exclusive.
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Oct 27, 2022 17:57
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SimonChris posted:Polling continues to be stupid: Yeah uh it's impossible to really makes heads or tails of this. Cortez Masto busting out to +13 is a pretty insane outlier and generally I think we're heading again toward "polls are meaningless, just vote"
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Oct 27, 2022 17:59
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Sodomy Hussein posted:Yeah uh it's impossible to really makes heads or tails of this. Cortez Masto busting out to +13 is a pretty insane outlier and generally I think we're heading again toward "polls are meaningless, just vote" I think it comes down mostly to differences of opinion in turnout models, though the low response rate is also a problem. If you think the people don't care much about abortion, the midterm curse against the presidents party is a magical law, and people are only focusing on food and gas prices, then you are going to predict low turnout with mostly old grumpy white people and a red wave. If you think that roe v wade was a great mattering, you'll predict heavy turnout with lots of young voters and a blue wave. Midterm turnout is usually easy to predict but this year its not. When you are very, very wrong about turnout, you put out stupid polls like earlier this year in Kansas.
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Oct 27, 2022 18:12
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Judgy Fucker posted:Trying to understand your position here: material and social conditions create fascists. Once a fascist is created, they are forever a fascist, and cannot be redeemed in any way. Is that correct? If not, my apologies, and would appreciate clarification. No, they can be redeemed, it just usually involves either war, turmoil and extreme consequences for them, or professional cult deprogramming. Neither is really an option for Democrats. Harold Fjord posted:This is the claim that you still have not substantiated, to be clear. Sure I have, unless you are some overarching authority on what is and isn't left. ManBoyChef posted:The problem with this is that in the US money selects our candidates. You don't end up with leftists ideas being touted often because most of the democrats are pretty much beholden to special interest groups, the wealthy, and corporations. It is why Bernie was so refreshing because he actually wanted to help americans and you can tell it wasn't lipservice. Many people are turned off by how crappy both parties are and the fact that they no longer actively work in the interest of the people that really need the government for help. Leftists will actively work to curtail those interests that is why you have people putting up extremely pro corporate challengers to Ilhan Omar and AOC. This is also why Chesa Boudin got recalled. Bernie raised what, hundreds of millions of dollars? Many of the most progressive candidates, AOC included, don't seem to have that many problems in raising money. The way they choose to utilize that money is the issue, not the lack of it. Endless ads saying how they will make things better in myriad ways and factual points about what is wrong in the American society. It just doesn't sell enough. Hate and fear do, and the controversy creates free media. The leftover money can be geared towards getting people to vote in other ways than begging them to do so. Or what is called a political machine.
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Oct 27, 2022 18:12
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So will election night be a thing again in 2022 or will we have to wait to find out anything?
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Oct 27, 2022 18:17
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pencilhands posted:So will election night be a thing again in 2022 or will we have to wait to find out anything? It doesnt take long to find out if a red or blue wave is happening. Theres plenty of east coast races where if a wave is happening well see races flipped that shouldn't have been. The final seat count will take a while though. Edit: there will still be annoyingly slow states like PA in 2020 that take forever on mail votes, but we can ignore them and look at states where we expect final-ish results very fast. It won't be much of a mystery what the overall direction is if not the final house seat numbers before we go to bed Rigel fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Oct 27, 2022 |
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Oct 27, 2022 18:21
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DarkCrawler posted:No, they can be redeemed, it just usually involves either war, turmoil and extreme consequences for them, or professional cult deprogramming. Neither is really an option for Democrats. I've discussed extensively various areas that are called Left and how they are distinct while you have just clumped huge broads of the political spectrum together and claimed that what applies to one applies to all of it. You should probably just stop making general claims about a country you don't live in and know nothing about the populace of. Only thing your impacting is your own credibility, which you are steadily driving towards the negative. You haven't even posted an example of your claim. Calling people idiots and calling them fascists are very different things and the reaction you shared was to the former.
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Oct 27, 2022 18:47
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I’m in WA in a very blue area & have gotten two door to door visits from the local democrats and have been seeing a big uptick in Patty Murray signs & ads so while anecdotal seems they aren’t taking anything for granted. Probably helps Murray is competent & reasonably well liked while Smiley came out of nowhere.
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Oct 27, 2022 18:51
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Step 1: declare the moral wrongs of Republicans Step 2:????? Step 3: Total political dominance
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Oct 27, 2022 19:00
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Rigel posted:It doesnt take long to find out if a red or blue wave is happening. Theres plenty of east coast races where if a wave is happening well see races flipped that shouldn't have been. The final seat count will take a while though. This, we will know if we are hosed or not by 11 or so.
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Oct 27, 2022 19:04
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Harold Fjord posted:Step 1: declare the moral wrongs of Republicans It would, I admit, be very nice if "being correct" naturally led to "winning." 
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Oct 27, 2022 19:06
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Hyrax Attack! posted:I’m in WA in a very blue area & have gotten two door to door visits from the local democrats and have been seeing a big uptick in Patty Murray signs & ads so while anecdotal seems they aren’t taking anything for granted. Probably helps Murray is competent & reasonably well liked while Smiley came out of nowhere. WADems want you to vote for at least one person because they know you'll probably bubble in a lot more "prefers D Party" down-ballot if you get through the process of filling out your ballot. Patty Murray is like the "50% if its your first time using this app-service" offers on all the podcasts; its about getting someone in the door.
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Oct 27, 2022 19:31
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pencilhands posted:https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/26/democrats-washington-patty-murray-senate-00063447 Can you please post a short summary or copy and paste the article when you post things like this? Edit: Epic High Five already beat me to it.
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Oct 27, 2022 19:36
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