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DEEP STATE PLOT
Aug 13, 2008

Yes...Ha ha ha...YES!



i dunno, after all the videos of bolsonaro's goons doing everything they could to keep lula voters from the polls, i'm just happy lula won at all

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I know the BBC has its faults but they say some of the roadblocks have been cleared out.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63451859

It's apparently kind of uncertain how bad those trucker protests might get?

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-famato-says-does-not-support-protestor-roadblocks-could-disrupt-2022-10-31/

It's very concerning that Bolsonaro hasn't conceded yet even though various allies have acknowledged reality. What is his likely gameplan now?

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Eric Cantonese posted:

It's very concerning that Bolsonaro hasn't conceded yet even though various allies have acknowledged reality. What is his likely gameplan now?

Probably try to dispute the election in the courts then try a coup.

Trump playbook.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1587531099567456257

Most petulant concession possible

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

lol that Trump was more unhinged and openly fascist than Jair Bolsonaro

I hadn't expected that, I was wrong

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

Jaxyon posted:

lol that Trump was more unhinged and openly fascist than Jair Bolsonaro

I hadn't expected that, I was wrong

Maybe more that Bolsonaro is more savvy than Trump, and he just figures he doesn't have enough support for a coup.

Edit: Although technically if he was going to try pull a 1/6 and try using some weird meaningless bit of constitutional procedure as an opportunity to pull a coup, he'd be quiet about it for now and wait for a bit, but if he doesn't have the military on his side enough for them to pull the coup for them, it'd probably really annoy the military if he summoned a bunch of civilian supporters to do it.

SlothfulCobra fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Nov 1, 2022

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

SlothfulCobra posted:

Maybe more that Bolsonaro is more savvy than Trump, and he just figures he doesn't have enough support for a coup.

Edit: Although technically if he was going to try pull a 1/6 and try using some weird meaningless bit of constitutional procedure as an opportunity to pull a coup, he'd be quiet about it for now and wait for a bit, but if he doesn't have the military on his side enough for them to pull the coup for them, it'd probably really annoy the military if he summoned a bunch of civilian supporters to do it.

Yah I'd agree more savvy, and yet he has WAY more support than trump did for a coup.

And yes, I don't trust that he'll hand over power as he says, until he actually does it.

Kale
May 14, 2010

So like has anyone seen Bolsonaro or has he issued any sort of statement since the election was called or is he doing the Trump thing where he just goes to sulk and completely gives up on finishing out his term and duties properly and being where he's needed and making the decisions as you know....President of Brazil until it's officially time to turn it over to Lula?


Oh wow, didn't notice the page turnover at first. I did read that the Supreme Court of Brazil has apparently ordered the blockades by removed by whatever means necessary. Assume it's disrupting the economy there among other things.

Also I love that the guy that just swears casually for no other reason but to shirk decorum and please degenerates is the "god and family" candidate.

Kale fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Nov 1, 2022

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep
Bolsonaro probably looked real closely at the "how it's going" part of Trump's life and legacy and decided that it was never going to be worth it to fight this

jiggerypokery
Feb 1, 2012

...But I could hardly wait six months with a red hot jape like that under me belt.

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/1589671706939228161

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you
That's a very embarrassing climb-down.

Has Macron ever even renounced his position that Guiado is the legitimate president?

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Marenghi posted:

That's a very embarrassing climb-down.

Has Macron ever even renounced his position that Guiado is the legitimate president?

look, we all say a lot of things when we're upset

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

fnox
May 19, 2013



Considering the energy crisis and Maduro's willingness to grant private concessions it makes sense, Guaido has burnt through all political capital he may have had. Probably a matter of time until the US starts walking back sanctions and lets Chevron take a piece of the pie even with Maduro still in power, at the detriment of course of the population both in Venezuela and abroad.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you
Hopefully Maduro has the political acumen to get all he can out of US/Europe's energy crisis.


Especially the gold reserves the UK seized for Guaido. Nonsense that bit of piracy was allowed to stand, even worse now that Guaido is defacto unrecognised anymore.

fnox
May 19, 2013



It’s not like they gave the money to Guaido. Those are foreign reserves that are held in vaults in the UK. They’re still there and they’re still Venezuelan.

I don’t see the point of cheering for Maduro in this case because all this, including selling gold reserves, is to the detriment of the people. The central bank has proven to be extremely incompetent and harmful to the point the US dollar is the de facto currency. Those privatized oil profits are not going to trickle down.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

fnox posted:

It’s not like they gave the money to Guaido. Those are foreign reserves that are held in vaults in the UK. They’re still there and they’re still Venezuelan.

I don’t see the point of cheering for Maduro in this case because all this, including selling gold reserves, is to the detriment of the people. The central bank has proven to be extremely incompetent and harmful to the point the US dollar is the de facto currency. Those privatized oil profits are not going to trickle down.

look on the bright side: you'd reconciled yourself to Guaido doing all those things, now you get to see Maduro doing them. you got what you expected to see from the guy you wanted out of the guy you hated, and that's something worth celebrating.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

https://twitter.com/i/status/1590091634779488256

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

fnox posted:

It’s not like they gave the money to Guaido. Those are foreign reserves that are held in vaults in the UK. They’re still there and they’re still Venezuelan.

They held the gold away from the Venezuelan government, which they could have used during the covid crisis.
The most recent court decision in the summer decided the gold belonged to the Guadio's opposition and would be under control of a board decided by him, not by the board chosen by Maduro.

They have basically said it's for his government in exile to use. If it weren't for the ongoing appeals he could have been using a portion of that to fund his campaign to be instated as president.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Marenghi posted:

They held the gold away from the Venezuelan government, which they could have used during the covid crisis.
The most recent court decision in the summer decided the gold belonged to the Guadio's opposition and would be under control of a board decided by him, not by the board chosen by Maduro.

They have basically said it's for his government in exile to use. If it weren't for the ongoing appeals he could have been using a portion of that to fund his campaign to be instated as president.

So, how exactly would that gold be used during COVID? You know what foreign reserves are for, right? What do you think is going to happen if the Central Bank of Venezuela sells 30% of their reserves? Hell, what do you think happened with the rest of the gold reserves that Venezuela had? Because Maduro started his presidency with about 3 times as much gold in reserves as he has now, and yet in terms of monetary policy every single thing that the BCV has done has been to the absolute detriment of the Venezuelan people.

Do you seriously believe that money was going to be used for the COVID crisis when the Maduro government has lied about just about every single economic metric, every single economic policy they've had?

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

i think that stealing the foreign currency or other value reserves of a country to force regime change is bad, even if the country's government is bad, op

even the worst embezzlers do not typically steal 100% of the values in their possession

fnox
May 19, 2013



V. Illych L. posted:

even the worst embezzlers do not typically steal 100% of the values in their possession

Lmao.

Take a walk around Las Mercedes. Puro orgullo hecho en Venezuela is what I feel when I look at what it’s become now. A true demonstration of how you can in fact, if you set your mind to it, steal 100% of the public assets that you administrate.

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

Yeah, it'd be nice for Maduro to use the money to try helping Venezuela, but he's also the guy who led it into the trouble it's in now by pissing away and embezzling state funds.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012
That's why other notoriously corrupt regimes like Saudi Arabia, Bahrein, Turkey and such also have their funds held, right?


....right?

fnox
May 19, 2013



Sephyr posted:

That's why other notoriously corrupt regimes like Saudi Arabia, Bahrein, Turkey and such also have their funds held, right?


....right?

Oh, beautiful example you just brought up, Turkey! Look up what happened to Turkey once they started indiscriminately selling off foreign reserves. It sure as poo poo isn't Erdogan who faced the cost of his piss poor understanding of monetary policy.

The fact that other crook governments can get away with it doesn't justify anything. If Maduro is allowed to continue pilfering public assets to perpetuate himself in power, by the time he's gone, there won't be any money left to fix the damage he's done. The institutional damage I say is completely irreversible, but even if we're somehow able to get the BCV back into being actually independent from the executive, we're gonna need that gold, and we're going to need PDVSA to remain in control of the state, and those are two things Maduro is trying to get rid of right now.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

fnox posted:

So, how exactly would that gold be used during COVID?

Early in the pandemic they had arranged a deal directly with the UN Development Programme for the gold in Britain to be directly transferred to the U.N. in exchange for food and medicine, thereby avoiding allegations of corruption. The deal never went ahead because it required the Bank of England's permission.

quote:

Central bank Governor Calixto Ortega told Reuters that under the arrangement, the UNDP would receive the funds directly, a move meant to assuage concerns about potential corruption.

“It’s not my word, it’s not me saying that I am going to buy food, medicine and medical equipment,” Ortega said in an interview in his downtown Caracas office. “It’s the United Nations who is saying that. They are not going to be involved in anything dark that is not neutral and independent.”

Any program would still require the Bank of England to release the gold. The Bank of England declined to comment.

In a statement, the UNDP said it was “approached recently to explore mechanisms to use existing resources held by the Central Bank of Venezuela in financial institutions outside the country to fund the ongoing efforts to address the urgent humanitarian, health, and socioeconomic needs arising from the COVID-19 pandemic.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-centralbank-exclus-idUSKBN23333N

fnox
May 19, 2013



Marenghi posted:

Early in the pandemic they had arranged a deal directly with the UN Development Programme for the gold in Britain to be directly transferred to the U.N. in exchange for food and medicine, thereby avoiding allegations of corruption. The deal never went ahead because it required the Bank of England's permission.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-centralbank-exclus-idUSKBN23333N

Oh, how wonderful, however, Chavez repatriated 85% of the country's foreign reserves in 2011. Somehow, between 2013, when Maduro took over, and today, most of that gold vanished. Where did it go? Why is none of that usable right now? In 2013 Maduro had access to 360 tons of gold, we're down to under 80 tons, do you think those resources have been administrated properly?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

fnox posted:

Oh, how wonderful, however, Chavez repatriated 85% of the country's foreign reserves in 2011. Somehow, between 2013, when Maduro took over, and today, most of that gold vanished. Where did it go? Why is none of that usable right now? In 2013 Maduro had access to 360 tons of gold, we're down to under 80 tons, do you think those resources have been administrated properly?

Do you think the BoE should have gone along with the UN plan?

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

fnox posted:


The fact that other crook governments can get away with it doesn't justify anything.

Actually, it kinda does. Partial justice is not justice.

If Jake, Paul and Oscar are all smoking weed at a party, and a cop barged in and arrests Paul while never touching the other two, it's a pretty safe bet that either 1- The cop hates Paul or 2- The cop is in Oscar and Jake's pocket.

The whole point of the embargo is to not let Maduro spend the fraction of the cash he -doesn't- steal to buy off a loyal section of the population, which is very much what happens in a lot of other tolerated kleptocracies.

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

The context was Guaido going around trying to create a legitimacy crisis for Venezuela's farce of democracy, which is a common situation for other countries to decide which side they support. If Saudi Arabia had some pretender to the throne plausibly running around in opposition to their king/prince, we'd see similar shenanigans with them.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

fnox posted:

Oh, how wonderful, however, Chavez repatriated 85% of the country's foreign reserves in 2011. Somehow, between 2013, when Maduro took over, and today, most of that gold vanished. Where did it go? Why is none of that usable right now? In 2013 Maduro had access to 360 tons of gold, we're down to under 80 tons, do you think those resources have been administrated properly?

I saw that when I was looking through historical data on Venezuela's gold reserves. Definitely a good call be Chavez to repatriate his gold from foreign banks, despite all the news at the time painting it as expensive and unnecessary. It may have been expensive but it was definitely necessary.

I assume Venezuela is using gold as a hard currency to buy goods and services it requires but couldn't access due to sanctions and the falling price of oil.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Marenghi posted:

I assume Venezuela is using gold as a hard currency to buy goods and services it requires but couldn't access due to sanctions and the falling price of oil.


???

i say swears online posted:

Do you think the BoE should have gone along with the UN plan?

I'm pretty certain this is just Maduro exploiting the humanitarian crisis he's created by trying to paint it as if the gold he wants to use for a swap would legitimately go to medicines. I don't think it was the UN's plan, I'm pretty sure the is the plan that Calixto Ortega gave to the UN.

I'm all for paying for it using the money resulting from the sales of Calixto Ortega's properties in Caracas, though, that should probably foot the bill.

Sephyr posted:

Actually, it kinda does. Partial justice is not justice.

If Jake, Paul and Oscar are all smoking weed at a party, and a cop barged in and arrests Paul while never touching the other two, it's a pretty safe bet that either 1- The cop hates Paul or 2- The cop is in Oscar and Jake's pocket.

The whole point of the embargo is to not let Maduro spend the fraction of the cash he -doesn't- steal to buy off a loyal section of the population, which is very much what happens in a lot of other tolerated kleptocracies.

This isn't part of the US embargo, and what's specifically in dispute is the appointment of Calixto Ortega to be the head of the BCV when he's quite obviously influenced by the government, considering his prior government appointments. I'm not sure what you mean though, because it's not like this is an unheard of measure, Russia similarly had their foreign reserves frozen, for similar reasons.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you
Try label your graphs please.

fnox posted:

I'm pretty certain this is just Maduro exploiting the humanitarian crisis he's created by trying to paint it as if the gold he wants to use for a swap would legitimately go to medicines. I don't think it was the UN's plan, I'm pretty sure the is the plan that Calixto Ortega gave to the UN.

Did you read the article, or even just my quote?

Sure it was Ortega's plan, but it was done in a way to remove any claims of corruption. The money would be sent directly to the UNDP who would then purchase and deliver medicines on Venezuela's behalf.

fnox
May 19, 2013



Marenghi posted:

Try label your graphs please.

Sorry that the numbers scare you but that's the Brent Crude Oil price over the last 3 years. It's been going up, maybe dipping slightly now, but it was near the peak oil levels Chavez saw. This is also the highest it's been in the entirety of Maduro's rule, a fact you can check by yourself if you plot that same chart until 2013.


Marenghi posted:

Sure it was Ortega's plan, but it was done in a way to remove any claims of corruption. The money would be sent directly to the UNDP who would then purchase and deliver medicines on Venezuela's behalf.

"Remove any claims of corruption" is quite a strong claim for an agreement that isn't even public or seemingly in writing.

The Spanish language version of the same article mentions something missing from the English language version, kind of an important detail. During the height of the pandemic, the entirety of the BCV was non-operational except for one singular wing, the one responsible for withdrawing gold from vaults. During the pandemic, 8 tons of gold were sold, we don't know to whom or for how much. Was that used for medicines? I somehow doubt it, it was probably used to buy gasoline, because it took Maduro nearly 8 years of rule to slowly start dismantling one of the largest sources of deficit the country holds to this day.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012
Here's my point.

There is an aphorism in engineering that helps cut through a lot of bullshit, though of course it does not apply to everything. It goes "The purpose of a system is what it does".

It doesn't matter if you tell me a machine picks apples and its manual, mission statement and musical jingla call it the ApplePicker5000. If it killed 100 rabbits and only picked 3 apples each day, it's a rabbit-killing machine.

So what is the point of the current system of sanctions?

-We know it's not about corruption or democracy, because it's not being applied to all other corrupt/authoritarian governments.
-We know it's not really to depose Maduro, because he's still there.
-We know it's not to stop him and his cronies from stealing, because as you said and we know, they have taken everything not nailed down.

Seems to me that the only things the current status quo really achieve is 1- giving him a convenient fig leaf and excuse for the botched economy, since he can just point at the embargoes and say that if it were not for them, he could he helping them so much more. 2- Let psychos like John Bolton (whose last jon before Trump ditched him was to expand the sanctions) gloat about how they can strangle any minor country that gets too noisy in their back yard, anytime.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

i am quite confident that the gold would do more to benefit the venezuelan people if not stolen by a foreign actor, because the leader of venezuela needs some base level of legitimacy among his constituency, and that constituency cannot be limited entirely to the military/political capitalist elite to which the PSUV seems to have reverted in the face of crisis and extreme outside pressure. applies to the pathos-filled poverty of some area or failure of individual project doesn't actually demonstrate anything other than "this place is poor and corrupt", which was never in question - 100% theft is an extraordinary claim and you really are going to have to justify it with something other than your contempt for people with whom you disagree. 100% theft means that *every* public works initiative exists for *nothing* except stealing money, and not just skimming stuff through bad building contracts and -practices, just outright embezzling all the funds. this is a tall order!

i appreciate that you've gotten a fair amount of unreasonable pushback, but you do actually have to present some form of argument or there's really no point to any of this

V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Nov 15, 2022

fnox
May 19, 2013



V. Illych L. posted:

i am quite confident that the gold would do more to benefit the venezuelan people if not stolen by a foreign actor, because the leader of venezuela needs some base level of legitimacy among his constituency, and that constituency cannot be limited entirely to the military/political capitalist elite to which the PSUV seems to have reverted in the face of crisis and extreme outside pressure. applies to the pathos-filled poverty of some area or failure of individual project doesn't actually demonstrate anything other than "this place is poor and corrupt", which was never in question - 100% theft is an extraordinary claim and you really are going to have to justify it with something other than your contempt for people with whom you disagree. 100% theft means that *every* public works initiative exists for *nothing* except stealing money, and not just skimming stuff through bad building contracts and -practices, just outright embezzling all the funds. this is a tall order!

i appreciate that you've gotten a fair amount of unreasonable pushback, but you do actually have to present some form of argument or there's really no point to any of this

It’s really late for me, but I appreciate the challenge, so, here we go, here’s a website with documentation about 246 incomplete works in Maduro and Chavez administrations, amounting to nearly 300bn in expenditures. I’ll update with more tomorrow.

Look, it’s not hyperbole, Venezuela is authentically one of the most corrupt nations on earth, this is according to Transparency International, not me. It’s not your regular off the mill corruption, it’s to the point where there’s giant holes in the fabric of Venezuelan society just because someone stole the money destined to fix it.

Spice World War II
Jul 12, 2004
Someone should update transparency international on some of the news of how lava jato turned out a few years ago, because I see that they still list it as unqualified success in the fight against corruption on their americas synopsis

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

fnox posted:

It’s really late for me, but I appreciate the challenge, so, here we go, here’s a website with documentation about 246 incomplete works in Maduro and Chavez administrations, amounting to nearly 300bn in expenditures. I’ll update with more tomorrow.

Look, it’s not hyperbole, Venezuela is authentically one of the most corrupt nations on earth, this is according to Transparency International, not me. It’s not your regular off the mill corruption, it’s to the point where there’s giant holes in the fabric of Venezuelan society just because someone stole the money destined to fix it.

this still does not amount to 100% embezzlement which is the claim you're making

my initial premise here was very limited - i.e. the value would've been more useful to venezuela in its government's hands than literally being stolen by another government. for this to be the case, the benefit to the venezuelan people has to be larger than literally zero. an incomplete building project at least has a certain keynesian dispersal effect going on in that people working those failed construction projects are presumably drawing salaries, buying cement for good money etc. i wouldn't have minded much if you said "yes but it would've been a sharply limited use" or if the objection was that the net effect was negative due to the propogation of the regime, or that the value of the reserves to the venezuelan people when they were seized were not zero or some such, but your specific objection is literally that it makes no difference whether it's seized by a foreign government because *actually none* of the value is transferred to people, and that is not what you're substantiating here.

this is a separate objection to "is the venezuelan government corrupt and is that a problem" or even "is the venezuelan government good or bad" - it's a specific point about a specific claim which i deliberately set at the level of hyperbole to make a point (not releasing the gold was worse for venezuela than releasing it would've been because value > 0 if released whereas value=0 if not released) and which you are claiming as literally untrue in order to deny that point. which is fine, but you cannot substantiate that claim by pointing to a bunch of sources that say that value is low, because that again is not the issue at hand. i'm sure there are other objections to be made to my reasoning, but i really was not expecting this one, because i designed my premise to be deliberately thin precisely to try and move the discussion onto a different point than the issue of "is the PSUV government corrupt" which i feel has been adequately litigated already. what i'm driving at is that, *even given* this corruption, it is better for the people that the government has these resources than that hostile governments have them.

the alternative is regime change by those governments, and regime change doesn't have a great track record - specifically in venezuela, as far as i can tell at least a part of the degeneration of the venezuelan government is due to extreme pressure forcing a reliance on a class of domestic political capitalists which are in a position to demand extortionate kickbacks in return for their support of the government. this reliance is not a good thing, and it's very probable that it was always a part of the PSUV's strategy, but the economic warfare against venezuela has made the government more, not less, reliant on this class of political capitalists - and so the attempt at regime change has made certain key issues legitimising the attempt at regime change worse. i'm drawing a lot of inspiration from volodymyr ischenko's descriptions of pre-2014 ukraine here, where *some of* the same issues are seen playing out, and where a central line of conflict is between domestic political capitalists and "anti-corruption" activists who in practice are in favour of opening up the economy to foreign ownership and investment, i.e. a globalisation of the economy. it is obvious that the political capitalists are a problem; it is not obvious that placing oneself at the mercy of international finance is the answer. at any rate, a government under serious pressure will do what it has to in order to survive, and that includes empowering a loyal elite. the main ways of doing this are a) to keep mobilised a large pro-regime civil society, b) to build a serious bureaucracy interested in stability or c) to empower a class of capitalists whose competitive advantage is access to the regime. as far as i can tell, the PSUV's strategy was traditionally a) mixed with c), but as its ability to do a) has decreased and its civil society support has become less reliable, it's been leaning increasingly on c). the ability of the government to react in this way to "softer" attempts at regime change means that those attempts are effectively counter-productive; harder attempts involve actual wars.

i apologise that this is less than perfectly lucid - i have had a terrible night's sleep - but i hope it clarifies more than it confuses

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fnox
May 19, 2013



Spice World War II posted:

Someone should update transparency international on some of the news of how lava jato turned out a few years ago, because I see that they still list it as unqualified success in the fight against corruption on their americas synopsis

Their perception or biases are not a problem in this case, we can instead rely on the holes in the ground and empty structures corruption has littered Venezuela with.



This 9 billion dollar hole in the ground is called the Tocoma dam. The project started in 2002 with an estimated budget of around 3 billion dollars.



Here's 5 billion dollars worth of concrete pylons that was meant to be the Caracas-Guarenas-Guatire metro line.



Here's 5 billion dollars worth of holes in the ground that were meant to be the Caracas Metro Line 5. Out of 8 stations, only one was ever completed, despite the project starting in 2007.



What's that in the distance? It's the remainings of the Tinaco-Anaco railway, funded partially with Chinese money. 2.7 billion dollars worth of litter.



Here's what remains of a planned cardiology hospital in Caracas, one of around 6 different constructions part of Mision Barrio Adentro that were never finished despite 4 billion dollars being allocated. Nowadays this one has become the "Cardiologico concrete plant" (?).

These are only a few of these abandoned projects. There's a lot more, a whole load more grift and embezzlement that can readily explain why Venezuela is in the situation it's in, we could get into the corruption created by the currency exchange scheme, we can talk about corruption generated by military appointees and the pervasive nepotism that exist in Maduro's government. The entire point of this is to say, the Venezuelan government cannot be trusted with their word, particularly when it comes to money, because they steal it. They don't steal a little bit, they steal most if not all of it. If the people voted for socialism, for a fairer system better than the excesses of the governments that came before them, then they aren't getting any of it, they're getting more of the same.

V. Illych L. posted:

my initial premise here was very limited - i.e. the value would've been more useful to venezuela in its government's hands than literally being stolen by another government. for this to be the case, the benefit to the venezuelan people has to be larger than literally zero. an incomplete building project at least has a certain keynesian dispersal effect going on in that people working those failed construction projects are presumably drawing salaries, buying cement for good money etc. i wouldn't have minded much if you said "yes but it would've been a sharply limited use" or if the objection was that the net effect was negative due to the propogation of the regime, or that the value of the reserves to the venezuelan people when they were seized were not zero or some such, but your specific objection is literally that it makes no difference whether it's seized by a foreign government because *actually none* of the value is transferred to people, and that is not what you're substantiating here.

this is a separate objection to "is the venezuelan government corrupt and is that a problem" or even "is the venezuelan government good or bad" - it's a specific point about a specific claim which i deliberately set at the level of hyperbole to make a point (not releasing the gold was worse for venezuela than releasing it would've been because value > 0 if released whereas value=0 if not released) and which you are claiming as literally untrue in order to deny that point. which is fine, but you cannot substantiate that claim by pointing to a bunch of sources that say that value is low, because that again is not the issue at hand. i'm sure there are other objections to be made to my reasoning, but i really was not expecting this one, because i designed my premise to be deliberately thin precisely to try and move the discussion onto a different point than the issue of "is the PSUV government corrupt" which i feel has been adequately litigated already. what i'm driving at is that, *even given* this corruption, it is better for the people that the government has these resources than that hostile governments have them.

I mean, I'm going to disagree with that assessment there, particularly when these public projects are the result of a private partnership. In terms of what's good for the public at large I mean. A company embezzling most of the money, all while taking salaries and such, until the entire budget is bled dry and then delivering something of absolutely 0 use to the public like a giant hole in the ground, is probably pretty close to what you mean. The Tocoma dam would've meant an extra 2GW of generator capacity which Venezuela desperately needs. Instead what the public got was years upon years of power outages, at a gigantic cost to the public. Power outages to this day kill people in Venezuela, many of them in ERs and in hospice care.

With the gold reserves, there's an additional point that the Venezuelan government is deliberately masking there. These are foreign reserves. It would be fine if Maduro dipped into them once or twice but he's gotten rid of nearly 75% of existing reserves already and yet the BCV is still unable to provide liquidity. If he keeps tapping into the reserves without ever replenishing them that's just further going to devalue the bolivar. We're already at a point that effectively mean a de facto dollarization for the country, which if formalized (through necessity) would mean a huge loss of sovereignty and control for Venezuelans of today and tomorrow. That's why its benefit is lower than 0.

fnox fucked around with this message at 10:37 on Nov 15, 2022

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