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I believe in you op.
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Nov 2, 2022 03:22
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I can buy another rental house and net 6k/yr or I can use that same money to try and net 6k/wk. I understand this is a risky bet but I’m not getting any younger so if I’m ever gonna make a move it better be soon.
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Nov 2, 2022 03:25
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in'
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i have done better forecasting and estimates in 30 seconds of shitposting than you've demonstrated in the entire thread so, idk, maybe start on the back of a napkin
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Nov 2, 2022 03:27
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I take it back
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Nov 2, 2022 03:27
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If you think opening a donut shop is going to give you more time to spend with little kids, idk man you might want to talk to people who have done anything similar. I don't think it works that way unless you force the kids to be/work in the shop 24/7 like cheap mom-and-pop takeout places do. What kids need is quality time more than existing in your presence. One hour of actually hanging out focusing on them is better than four hours of them doing homework alone at a table while you're working in the back.
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Nov 2, 2022 03:28
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i like nice words
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I’m working 7pm to 7am 7 days lately. The shop is a mile from home. If I could dip out to have lunch with my kids I’d be seeing them much much more than i have been.
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Nov 2, 2022 03:32
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Real talk, not just forums poo poo talk: whatever you think this is going to do for you as far as quality time with your family is not going to happen. You need to NEED TO talk to people who do this kind of a thing for a living. Not online. Actual people. In your town. You should go work for some of them for a while too. You are making a huge mistake.
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Nov 2, 2022 03:40
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This is the sad part, people don't want you to fail! People won't be "mad" if you succeed "incorrectly". No one wants you to fail!
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Nov 2, 2022 03:43
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Motronic posted:Real talk, not just forums poo poo talk: whatever you think this is going to do for you as far as quality time with your family is not going to happen. You need to NEED TO talk to people who do this kind of a thing for a living. Not online. Actual people. In your town. You should go work for some of them for a while too. You come off like one of those thought demons from a philosophy riddle.
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Nov 2, 2022 03:47
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Rationale posted:We decided we wanted a business to work in because we have two little kids I don’t see enough of. If it's one thing that small business owners have when they open a new business, it's lots of spare time, energy, and mental bandwidth to dedicate to their families Rationale posted:I know I’m maintaining like a sort of careless dipshit persona but that’s just to anger these little spreadsheet nerds. No one's angry, we all just think you're a stupid rear end in a top hat. If you dropped the dipshit act, people might even actually offer concrete advice and help. Instead you're just a guy who's pleased because he thinks he's convinced everyone he's retarded
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Nov 2, 2022 03:47
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Powerful Katrinka posted:If you dropped the dipshit act, people might even actually offer concrete advice and help. Well, first of all, never, and b what help is anyone withholding? Is someone sitting on a brilliant kitchen design? Is someone going to pull permits for me? The advice I’ve gotten itt has charitably boiled down to “ learn the craft “ and “cough up some numbers”
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Nov 2, 2022 04:00
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Rationale posted:Well, first of all, never, and b what help is anyone withholding? Is someone sitting on a brilliant kitchen design? Is someone going to pull permits for me? The advice I’ve gotten itt has charitably boiled down to “ learn the craft “ and “cough up some numbers” You've decided to be an rear end in a top hat, so you'll never know. Have fun still not spending time with your children and courting crippling debt to do it
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Nov 2, 2022 04:09
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I'd be happy to talk more shop, I'd jump on a phone call if you wanted. You don't seem interested in my input though. So back to shitposting It was obvious benefits were right out. I didn't see payroll tax being so unlikely, but I guess that's one way to cut costs
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Nov 2, 2022 04:10
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Rationale posted:I can buy another rental house and net 6k/yr or I can use that same money to try and net 6k/wk. I understand this is a risky bet but I’m not getting any younger so if I’m ever gonna make a move it better be soon. B. How much income justifies working these batshit crazy hours? Is it $52K a year? $78K? $104K? Don't forget to account for the fact you're probably going to get screwed on taxes due to self-employment taxes. (I am not an accountant so don't take my advice, but you should consider talking to one, just like you should have already talked to a lawyer to make this an S Corp or something. Not a lawyer either; don't know the right corporation type but I'm assuming you like living in your house and don't want to have to move out if you get sued and lose badly.) C. If you're not getting any younger, then why are you trying to put yourself into donut slavery? Couldn't you do something like pivot into general contracting or something that takes advantage of your experience in the trades? D. Is this a risky bet? How do you know? You haven't sat down with a spreadsheet, let alone become a spreadsheet nerd, what are the risks? E. You said you're making $36 an hour at what sounds like irregular hours. For the sake of argument, let's say you can clear $1K net a week working 10-12 hours a day 6 days a week (we'll be super generous and say that you can take Saturdays off, even though you can't). Is that a worthwhile tradeoff for someone who wants to spend more time with their kids? Doesn't sound like it to me.
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Nov 2, 2022 04:32
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Powerful Katrinka posted:You've decided to be an rear end in a top hat, so you'll never know. Have fun still not spending time with your children and courting crippling debt to do it I’m calling your bluff your effortpost was about a poo poo job you had ten years ago you’re not helping because you can’t and my online persona doesn’t have anything to do with it. I hope you enjoy your lovely life as well, sir.
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Nov 2, 2022 04:33
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Admiralty Flag posted:A. How many cups of coffee and how many donuts would you need to sell in a week to net $1K (let's start with a reasonable number, shall we?)? How many is that by day? (Hint: you can't just divide by 7, because your traffic is going to be different M-F vs. Sat vs. Sun. (Probably different M vs. T vs. W vs. R vs. F too, but let's keep it simple.) Is that a reasonable number, given demographics, traffic, population, etc.? These are things a business plan would tell you. Okay so a latte nets $2 and a donut nets $1 because I say so. That’s 500 lattes or 1000 donuts a week. Or 250 lattes and 500 donuts Or 35 lattes and 70 donuts a day. Pad it out to 50 and 100 for dummy tax. I can’t see New Year’s Day being much slower than that. If im not making something like 150k in the shop I’ll go back to work. Contracting has a much higher entry cost that’s probably gonn be my second failed venture. It’s not actually that risky I don’t stand to lose much. I’ll collect my pension a year later and I’ll have missed opportunities while my money is tied up but worst case this is embarrassing for me. I’m betting we get 5-600 a day.
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Nov 2, 2022 04:58
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Some recommended reading (the download button on each page has the document). The franchise-specific stuff aside, it's going to give you some broad numbers on most of the basic aspects of opening a donut shop. https://www.wdfi.org/apps/FranchiseSearch/details.aspx?id=631037&hash=1963392536 https://www.wdfi.org/apps/FranchiseSearch/details.aspx?id=632239&hash=1448489678 https://www.wdfi.org/apps/FranchiseSearch/details.aspx?id=631077&hash=1821744137
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Nov 2, 2022 06:04
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Rationale posted:I’m working 7pm to 7am 7 days lately. The shop is a mile from home. If I could dip out to have lunch with my kids I’d be seeing them much much more than i have been. I get that the goal is to hire more people eventually, but until you're making enough to hire someone else in the ethical way you want (which is awesome but it's very hard), you're working 9pm to 4pm if you get steady business like you want. Actually after 4 you'll have to clean and get it reset for the next day, so we'll say 5. After that you can focus on fixing or getting machines. After a couple days of that schedule, it wouldn't even be safe to drive, let alone feeling okay to close your shop and head home for a fun quality lunchtime with the kids. It would honestly just be easier to do your current job and have family dinner together before you leave, plus when you get home, stay up to see them off to school. Not that I'm saying that's easy, but it's easier than opening a donut shop and running it singlehandedly and also spending quality time with your kids. Anne Whateley fucked around with this message at 07:00 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 06:55
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Rationale posted:I’m working 7pm to 7am 7 days lately. The shop is a mile from home. If I could dip out to have lunch with my kids I’d be seeing them much much more than i have been. are you okay with moving from 432 gross per day to 1k gross per week why are you betting you'll sell 600 donuts per day, what is that based on? you've already laid out that vehicle traffic in the area is paltry why do your made up numbers change every post Bloody fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 07:11
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:Some recommended reading (the download button on each page has the document). The franchise-specific stuff aside, it's going to give you some broad numbers on most of the basic aspects of opening a donut shop. Hey this is awesome thanks
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Nov 2, 2022 08:31
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Bloody posted:are you okay with moving from 432 gross per day to 1k gross per week I’m guessing we’ll net about 600/day
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Nov 2, 2022 08:33
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Found some government numbers about the traffic and it’s 5-6000 cars a day going by the store.
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Nov 2, 2022 08:45
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Rationale posted:You come off like one of those thought demons from a philosophy riddle. I enjoy these retorts. Let me try to translate to something usable. Ask the restaurant owners you know if they are taxed as an s corp. With some follow up questions, I bet you can really get them going. Should be amusing and informative
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Nov 2, 2022 09:31
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Rationale posted:I’m guessing we’ll net about 600/day Rationale posted:Found some government numbers about the traffic and it’s 5-6000 cars a day going by the store. You should camp outside another donut shop that's not too far from where you are. Do 10% of the cars going past stop for donuts?
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Nov 2, 2022 09:45
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Qwertycoatl posted:You should camp outside another donut shop that's not too far from where you are. Do 10% of the cars going past stop for donuts? $600 got drat
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Nov 2, 2022 10:10
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Qwertycoatl posted:You should camp outside another donut shop that's not too far from where you are. Do 10% of the cars going past stop for donuts? This is good advice IMO. If OP is interested in making some “bottom up” estimates of the businesses revenue based on number of people and avg transaction value just sitting inside and outside a similar business taking notes for a few hours on a few days is killer intel. Get to know the owners, get a donut and coffee and count cars, see what the average transaction value is, how many donuts they buy, what% buy coffee, etc. When I started our business I did a similar thing early on to estimate our first revenue plateau, it was basically some envelope math of the customers response rates and transaction values. I fed this into a Monte Carlo + discrete event simulation I wrote and it basically predicted the future 12 months ahead of time with only 2 months of data. The prediction said we had to make changes and we did and I could simulate the options. It saved the business. Envelope math or a spreadsheet can do the same thing, don’t really need a simulation. It’s always been kinda crazy to me how people can make pretty good decisions in business by just measuring the right thing for a very short time. CarForumPoster fucked around with this message at 11:09 on Nov 2, 2022 |
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Nov 2, 2022 11:01
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Qwertycoatl posted:You should camp outside another donut shop that's not too far from where you are. Do 10% of the cars going past stop for donuts? Only one car needs to stop if they buy a thousand donuts
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Nov 2, 2022 12:23
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Rationale posted:I’m calling your bluff your effortpost was about a poo poo job you had ten years ago you’re not helping because you can’t and my online persona doesn’t have anything to do with it. I hope you enjoy your lovely life as well, sir. Other people will have advice on Business and Finance, I've offered my advice on Career, because you're ultimately spending an incredible amount of your own money to buy yourself the poo poo job I had ten years ago Also I'm a woman
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Nov 2, 2022 13:03
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i like the idea of opening a small retail food business in order to spend more time with your kids
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Nov 2, 2022 13:53
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If you want actual advice for running a donut business I would say skip the retail and only make and sell donuts to coffee shops, breakfast places, bookstores, whatever. There's a donut bakery around here that only sells to other businesses and their donuts rule, and they don't have to worry about what to do with extra stock and all that poo poo. They're surely getting less per donut but from their perspective there's no shrink (well besides if some batches come out bad or w/e). Maybe eventually expand to a small (like walk up counter) retail, but this plan of drive through is really weird. People on their way to work or school would have to leave their house early to go to a donut place and a drive through window (without a speaker box ahead of it from the way you've described it) won't change that. Also re: the time thing, you are genuinely fooling yourself. The coffee shop I work at was open for nearly 3 years before the owners stopped coming in every day, and even then they were there 4 or 5 days a week. I listened to a couple episodes of Richard Blaise's podcast and in one of them he had a celebrity chef on (she was a common judge on Food Network shows but didn't have her own shows) and she talked about when she opens a restaurant she literally puts a cot in the office and sleeps there for two weeks, then another couple months at a hotel where she's there open to close, then she will hand it off to a general manager. Someone who has opened multiple successful restaurants still acknowledges what a narrow edge opening a food business is. Think about that.
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Nov 2, 2022 14:42
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Rationale posted:You come off like one of those thought demons from a philosophy riddle. That’s a very good read on Motronic, lol
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Nov 2, 2022 15:10
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What about increasing automation? If you could find some sweet used Fanucs or Kukas then you wouldn’t have to work as hard. Work smart not hard. Robot donuts would actually be a cool catch and help differentiate your shop. People might even go out of their way to be served donuts by a robot.
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Nov 2, 2022 17:13
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Speedos for everyone. Speedo cooks, servers, customers. Be the loose change you want to see.
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Nov 2, 2022 17:21
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OP once you open the shop are you planning on recording daily sales volume and detailed financials or will it just be "how much money is in the till/deposited into my personal checking account from the cardreader next to the till"
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Nov 2, 2022 17:29
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Tempora Mutantur posted:OP once you open the shop are you planning on recording daily sales volume and detailed financials or will it just be "how much money is in the till/deposited into my personal checking account from the cardreader next to the till" Ya. It's one thing to set everything up by gut. If you try to pay taxes by gut feel, I'm guessing you'll have a bad time. But then, I worked at a burrito joint that paid under the table, and everyone in the kitchen was probably an illegal immigrant. I think they make money hand over fist. I wasn't joking or trying to be mean with the suggestion that wife keeps the books. It's a common setup, it must work ok.
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Nov 2, 2022 17:53
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not even thinking about taxes just to know how he's actually doing so he can figure out if he's hitting his 50/100 counts because I laughed really hard hearing about *any* planning involving new year's day
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Nov 2, 2022 17:58
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Tempora Mutantur posted:OP once you open the shop are you planning on recording daily sales volume and detailed financials or will it just be "how much money is in the till/deposited into my personal checking account from the cardreader next to the till" Oh yeah for sure. At the Very least I’ll track sales vs overstock so I make the right doughnuts every day
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Nov 2, 2022 18:31
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I have a tummy ache from eating too many cookies. Is this t he future you want?
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Nov 2, 2022 18:31
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How are you planning to handle point of sale payment processing and accounting?
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Nov 2, 2022 18:32
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Also that spro machine will 100% be an albatross around your neck. You do not have the intellect or discipline to run a good espresso program
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Nov 2, 2022 18:32
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