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pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Free Prolapse

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Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

No don't.

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?
ok

let's take a brief time out

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?



Not the best Marine recruitment slogan I've ever heard, but

Blistex
Oct 30, 2003

Macho Business
Donkey Wrestler

Is this a reference to the effect wax has on the digestive system?

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Grand Fromage posted:

Not the best Marine recruitment slogan I've ever heard, but

I admit it took a min for this to penetrate my bourbon laden mind.

This is excellent.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Blistex posted:

Is this a reference to the effect wax has on the digestive system?

masterful name/post combo

Eason the Fifth
Apr 9, 2020
I know I'm officially an old now because I have to ask: what does SYQ mean?

McNally
Sep 13, 2007

Ask me about Proposition 305


Do you like muskets?
loving. Stop.

This thread is for discussing Ukraine.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
boy do I not miss being a mod

e- lol, plea for sanity always lands between reply and submit, sorry

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Eason the Fifth posted:

I know I'm officially an old now because I have to ask: what does SYQ mean?

I believe it means Source Your Quotes.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

ISW has been busy tonight but all their tweets are highlights excerpted from this mega effort post:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2

quote:

Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has previously forecasted. Financial experts told Reuters that the Kremlin will face a budget deficit that will “drain Moscow’s reserves to their lowest level in years” due to projected decreases in energy revenue, sanctions, and the cost of Russian mobilization.[1] One expert predicted that payouts to mobilized men including social benefits may cost the Kremlin between 900 billion rubles and three trillion rubles (around $14.6-$32.4 billion) in the next six months. The number does not account for payouts to other categories of servicemen within the Russian forces such as BARS (Combat Army Reserve), volunteer battalions, and the long-term commitment to veterans' payments to contract servicemen, volunteers, non-military specialists who moved to occupied territories, and proxy fighters.[2] ISW previously estimated that one volunteer battalion of 400 servicemen costs Russia at least $1.2 million per month excluding enlistment bonuses and special payments for military achievements.[3]

The Kremlin is already facing challenges in delivering promised compensation, challenges that are increasing social tensions within Russian society. Russian Telegram channels released footage of mobilized men in Ulyanovsk protesting payment issues.[7] Other footage from the Chuvashia Republic shows a presumably Russian local official yelling at protesting mobilized men that she had not promised them a payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,860).[8] Families of mobilized men publicly complained to Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Guseyev that they have not received promised compensation of 120,000 rubles (about $1,945).[9] The Kremlin will need to continue to pay what it has promised to maintain societal control and some resemblance of morale among Russia’s ad hoc collection of forces. ISW has also reported that the Kremlin is igniting conflict within Russian military formations amalgamated from different sources by offering different payments, benefits, and treatment.[10] Social media footage from October 31, for example, showed a physical fight between contract servicemen and mobilized men reportedly over personal belongings and military equipment.[11]


tldr:

More Concerning:

quote:

Russian officials announced that occupation authorities began integrating the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) into the jurisdiction of Russian nuclear power plant operator Rosenergoatom on November 2.[16] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko claimed that ZNPP personnel who are “critical for the work of the ZNPP” signed contracts with Rosenergoatom and that Russian authorities are exploring the creation of a security zone around the ZNPP.[17] Ukraine’s Energoatom stated on October 28 that only 100 of the 6,700 Ukrainian personnel remaining at the ZNPP plant have signed new contracts with the Russian energy agency Rosatom (out of 11,000 personnel before February 24).[18] The Ukrainian State Inspectorate of Nuclear Regulation stated that Russian forces built an unknown structure at one of seven spent nuclear fuel storage sites at the ZNPP in violation of nuclear safety standards.[19] As of this publication, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not issued a statement condemning the formally announced illegal Russian takeover of the operation of the ZNPP or addressed the likelihood that Russia will demand formal IAEA recognition of Russian control over the ZNPP and thereby de facto recognition of the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory.

Luka ain't gonna do poo poo:

quote:

Russian and Belarusian officials continue to highlight bilateral defense cooperation between Russia and Belarus as a means of perpetuating the long-standing information operation that Belarus will enter the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Belarus’ entry into the war remains highly unlikely, as ISW has previously assessed. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced on November 2 that Russia and Belarus held the annual meeting of the Joint Board of the Ministries of Defense with the purpose of strengthening the “joint military potential” of the Russia-Belarus Union State to counter “challenges and threats of a military nature” posed by NATO.[20] Khrenin’s statement is likely meant to signal continued Belarusian loyalty to Russia and present an image of Belarusian-Russian military unity to the West. As ISW has previously assessed, Belarus' entry into the war remains highly unlikely due to the array of domestic ramifications such an action would have on President Alexander Lukashenko’s regime, as well as limited Belarusian military capabilities.[21] The meeting of the Joint Board of the Ministries of Defense is therefore a continuation of a concerted effort on the part of both Belarus and Russia to perpetuate an information operation that presents the threat of the Union State as imminent in order to pin Ukrainian troops against the northern border and pollute the information space.

shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Nov 3, 2022

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

shame on an IGA posted:

ISW has been busy tonight but all their tweets are highlights excerpted from this mega effort post:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-2

tldr:


I imagine Russia intends to solve it's compensation problem by delaying payment a bit, and then indefinitely.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Carth Dookie posted:

I imagine Russia intends to solve it's compensation problem by delaying payment a bit, and then indefinitely.

While I tend to think that most of the predictions regarding the imminent dissolution of the Russian Federation because of this war to be overblown fantasies, I will concede that it's usually not a great sign for national stability when you have have lots of angry men with guns that are getting stiffed on their paychecks.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon
No you see it's actually a pro gamer move. Just zerg combat, then disband the survivors before their upkeep tick in the turn order.

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Nuclear Tourist posted:

While I tend to think that most of the predictions regarding the imminent dissolution of the Russian Federation because of this war to be overblown fantasies, I will concede that it's usually not a great sign for national stability when you have have lots of angry men with guns that are getting stiffed on their paychecks.

good news! most of the guns are purely theoretical, or do not work. Plus I think Putin has the smarts to stiff the families of the dead ones rather than the currently (possibly) armed live ones.


Also stiffing soldiers on their pay is like... every army ever.

Herman Merman
Jul 6, 2008

Grand Fromage posted:

Not the best Marine recruitment slogan I've ever heard, but

this nation used to build railroads

Lemniscate Blue
Apr 21, 2006

Here we go again.

Herman Merman posted:

this nation used to build railroads

But do they call us "America, the Railroad Builder? No!"

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

M_Gargantua posted:

No you see it's actually a pro gamer move. Just zerg combat, then disband the survivors before their upkeep tick in the turn order.

just morph them into extractors the day before they're meant to get paid, then cancel it a day later

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Nuclear Tourist posted:

While I tend to think that most of the predictions regarding the imminent dissolution of the Russian Federation because of this war to be overblown fantasies, I will concede that it's usually not a great sign for national stability when you have have lots of angry men with guns that are getting stiffed on their paychecks.

I think it's too early to make any calls on this, but it is worth noting that just as Russia has been working along the traditional escalation ladder with the conflict, as well as the traditional 'authoritarian regime clamps down on dissent when things get hard' story, they're also following the script for 'authoritarian regime accidentally triggers a revolution because the system is too rotten to implement dissent suppression measures'.

It's not a necessary outcome, but it is the first steps you would expect to see if we were on that path.

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012

Rude Dude With Tude posted:

https://twitter.com/LeChouNews/status/1587801927240261633

Utterly unrealistic satire, as if the UN would ever do anything beyond stern words.

We need to be strong in our response. I've never seen them so worked up. We believe we should begin by... asking for restraint. I wouldn't say Russia. It's more just a general request for all general nations in the general region to show restraint. In general.

Go further? Well... I suppose we could escalate to... 'strongly call' for restraint.

IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 08:44 on Nov 3, 2022

Fearless
Sep 3, 2003

DRINK MORE MOXIE


Carth Dookie posted:

I imagine Russia intends to solve it's compensation problem by delaying payment a bit, and then indefinitely.

They learned it from their close ties with so many Republicans!

Carth Dookie
Jan 28, 2013

Fearless posted:

They learned it from their close ties with so many Republicans!

Game recognises game.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1588100657394745344

Russia's withdrawing (at least partly?) from Kherson

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1588101395441483779?s=20&t=L1HHEEUXIkwtYxSoM2mDLQ

plot thickens:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1588107211837956096?s=20&t=L1HHEEUXIkwtYxSoM2mDLQ

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Alchenar posted:

I think it's too early to make any calls on this, but it is worth noting that just as Russia has been working along the traditional escalation ladder with the conflict, as well as the traditional 'authoritarian regime clamps down on dissent when things get hard' story, they're also following the script for 'authoritarian regime accidentally triggers a revolution because the system is too rotten to implement dissent suppression measures'.

It's not a necessary outcome, but it is the first steps you would expect to see if we were on that path.

I'm seeing the same thing. I wonder how much "help" Russia is getting in that situation. I am also curious to see if that is what ends this war or not.

Laughing Zealot
Oct 10, 2012


https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1588132518011850753

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

ASAPI posted:

I'm seeing the same thing. I wonder how much "help" Russia is getting in that situation. I am also curious to see if that is what ends this war or not.

Laurence Freedman (rated) has a good post up on Putin's incentives to seek a negotiated peace (they're not good).

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
It would be so great if Kherson could be retaken without a shot.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

I don't generally support Russia in this war, but I do support them withdrawing from Ukranian cities without fighting.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/on4U3TI7ylCbSD3/status/1588232996871704582?s=20&t=OywkOihYM0PV9rRQDmqwzw

Jimmy Smuts
Aug 8, 2000

Alchenar posted:

I think it's too early to make any calls on this, but it is worth noting that just as Russia has been working along the traditional escalation ladder with the conflict, as well as the traditional 'authoritarian regime clamps down on dissent when things get hard' story, they're also following the script for 'authoritarian regime accidentally triggers a revolution because the system is too rotten to implement dissent suppression measures'.

It's not a necessary outcome, but it is the first steps you would expect to see if we were on that path.
It's like Putin is trying to speedrun Russia's WW1 playbook.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
:nws:[url]https://apnews.com/article/bucha-ukraine-war-cleansing-investigation-43e5a9538e9ba68a035756b05028b8b4:nws:[/url]
Warning: very troubling photos, text describes systematic Russian war crimes from the pov of people who went through them. posting it because it's exceedingly relevant reporting

Extremely good article reconstructing Russian war crimes and specifically the details of just what the pre-planned cleansing operation ended up looking like. It's genuinely horrific and I would suggest not clicking it if you're not in a decent state of mind.

Edit: a bunch of reporting on this has come out in the last day or two and kit posts a good wrap-up of it here:
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=4016636&pagenumber=3&perpage=40#post527468259

she also very helpfully posts a bunch of the excerpts from the AP piece without the pictures of bodies

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Nov 4, 2022

Murgos
Oct 21, 2010
My “At the moment everything is fully under control” T-shirt is raising a lot of questions already answered by my T-shirt.

Dance Officer
May 4, 2017

It would be awesome if we could dance!
https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-opposition-to-helping-ukraine-grows-wsj-poll-finds-11667467802

Wew, lads.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
growing... by like 6% since march?

quote:

Some 30% of respondents overall said in the new survey they believe the administration is doing too much to help Ukraine, up from 6% in a March Journal poll. The change was driven by a big shift among GOP voters: 48% of Republicans now say the U.S. is doing too much, up from 6% in the previous survey.
The portion of GOP voters who said the U.S. isn’t doing enough to help Ukraine fell to 17%, a steep drop from 61% in March.
In a separate question that wasn’t asked in previous Journal surveys, 57% of poll respondents said they favor sending additional financial aid to Ukraine to support its war effort, while 37% said they opposed it. Among respondents, 81% of Democrats said they supported additional financial aid for Ukraine, while only 35% of Republicans and 45% of independents said the same.

most notable thing here, aside from it still being clearly popular on a bipartisan level is that republicans are split basically right down the middle on 'Do more for Ukraine' vs 'Doing too much for Ukraine'

that doesn't bode well for Republican efforts to block support to Ukraine

Dance Officer
May 4, 2017

It would be awesome if we could dance!
It's grown by 24% since march, and much more among republicans.

orange juche
Mar 14, 2012



I could plausibly see a future where Republicans get one of the houses of Congress and immediately demand that Ukraine submit to losing its territory to Russia.

Republicans don't give a poo poo the MIC funding their re-election campaigns, as distateful as that is, or being on the right side of history, if they can "own the libs", or if it can be used as a cudgel to beat their political enemies over the head with.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Dance Officer posted:

It's grown by 24% since march, and much more among republicans.

Oh yeah i misread that, though I'll also point out that in March we were doing comparatively jack poo poo to support Ukraine relative to what we are now doing. So imo that question suggests implies a bigger change in opinion when much of that change is likely people who just thought that supplying some training, M4s and AT systems and MANPADS was not enough but that giving Ukraine 50 billion dollars of weapons is enough. Satisfaction on both sides with the current level of support remains strong in other polling (and is extremely high among dems, but generally still hanging around slightly to moderately positive among republicans, even). I haven't seen any polling suggesting more than ~30% opposing doing more for Ukraine. That's basically the Trump faction + far right messaging hitting that point pretty regularly.

Senate remains significantly pro-ukraine, they passed the last bill 72-25 and the house's last vote was ~231-200, albeit that was a larger spending bill to avoid a shutdown. I don't think there's a ton of political will to significantly increase the level of support Ukraine is getting, but that's also separate from the level of will to continue current levels of support (of which there seems to be considerable political will for) which is also separate from the will to pull support for Ukraine, which by all measures appears to be the weakest position of the three. If Rs were unified behind stopping assistance and maybe if Ukraine wasn't getting significant results they'd have more success selling the idea of pulling support.

On that note, a strong case can be made that Russia's otherwise perplexing refusal to withdraw from Kherson (a decision which had been cryptically reported by Russians as political considerations trumping military considerations) until just the last couple days was very likely deliberately timed to not give dems and pro-Ukraine conservatives a win before the election. Russian messaging is pretty clear on where they stand on this

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1588218623868297217?s=20&t=pw1SOUANsyxUxHjwYRDZdA

There's a whole bunch of Russian messaging in various forms to this effect right now.

We're really going to have to wait and see how the election goes and probably more importantly: can republicans consolidate behind a single position

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:17 on Nov 4, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

I think it'll depend on the size of the Republican majority in the House. If it's razor thin, McCarthy won't be able to muster enough support to stonewall additional funding. The composition of the Senate is unlikely to change enough to matter, even if McConnell resumes his reign on the frozen throne

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bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
I'm not prepared to dismiss the ability of Republicans to swing against Ukrainian defense. Propaganda works. Get the right wing media machine blaring whatever message they choose and the public sentiment will follow.

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