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Tuna-Fish posted:The symbol for metric tonne is just "t". MT is megatesla, an unit for measuring magnetic fields near neutron stars. In earth science you also see things like CO2 emissions in terms of gigagrams (one kiloton)
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Nov 3, 2022 15:50
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If the Russians really are withdrawing it'll be interesting to see what the fallout is. On one hand, by all accounts it's a sound military decision to avoid getting pinned along the river with shaky supply lines getting interdicted by Ukrainian artillery. On the other hand, the political consequences of having given up Kherson without a fight would be pretty big - it'd be a hell of a morale boost for Ukraine and its backers, and conversely Russian nationalists will get even frothier at the mouth. Really hard to see how Putin spins this one as a positive - there's ways to mitigate the political impact but they mostly involve acknowledging that the front is in deep poo poo which makes them unlikely to be used. Don't really see that Putin has a lot of good choices here, though, Stalingrading Kherson would just make the eventual morale crash from losing it all the worse.
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Nov 3, 2022 17:50
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Kherson is significant because it's the one regional capital that Russia managed to take during the initial offensive. The only other (remaining) notable city is Melitopol, which is just part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It makes the annexation decision even dumber in hindsight because, combined with the Kharkiv offensive bleeding over into Luhansk, it means Russia doesn't fully control any of the annexed provinces.
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Nov 3, 2022 17:56
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What's the next logical objective? Establish a bridgehead across the Dnipro, take Nova Kakhovka, and secure the dam and the highway towards Melitopol?
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Nov 3, 2022 18:18
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's the next logical objective? Establish a bridgehead across the Dnipro, take Nova Kakhovka, and secure the dam and the highway towards Melitopol? Zaporizhzhia seems to be coming up a lot as a location where Ukrainian forces are staging for the next push from what i've seen, though that would track with the 'bridgehead across the Dnipro' priority
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Nov 3, 2022 18:21
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's the next logical objective? Establish a bridgehead across the Dnipro, take Nova Kakhovka, and secure the dam and the highway towards Melitopol? I think it would make more sense to cut off Russia's front south or Donetsk than to try to attack across the Dnipro. Like going towards Melitopol, just getting close enough to reliably shoot any transports across the single railroad south from Donetsk would make winter suck even more for Russia. And it would not require a contested river crossing.
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Nov 3, 2022 18:22
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's the next logical objective? Establish a bridgehead across the Dnipro, take Nova Kakhovka, and secure the dam and the highway towards Melitopol? Secure/demine the dam and bridges for sure, but given the season and geography I'm of the opinion it would be better to just hold the Dnipro once Kherson is liberated. Then start building up the next offense from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol. Attacking south from Kherson would give Ukraine the same supply issues Russians in Kherson have been experiencing. edit: what they said lol
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Nov 3, 2022 18:25
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I had heard that if Ukraine retook Kherson they'd be able to cut off the fresh water to Crimea again. If that's true it's not a war winner on its own but it's one more way to bleed Russia.
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Nov 3, 2022 18:38
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Bremen posted:I had heard that if Ukraine retook Kherson they'd be able to cut off the fresh water to Crimea again. If that's true it's not a war winner on its own but it's one more way to bleed Russia. Yes the aqueduct that supplies Crimea starts right next to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, same dam Russia's been threatening to blow up via accusing Ukraine of wanting to blow up. If Kherson is liberated, Ukraine will have control of their side of this dam. All they'd have to do is lower the reservoir in a controlled manner far enough for water to no longer reach the entrance of the Crimean aqueduct. They used to have a dam blocking off this entrance but Russia reopened it when the war started. Ukraine might prefer to rebuild this blockage instead, but that would mean keeping troops on the south side of the Dnipro and as discussed, suffer the same supply issues there they've been imposing on Russia.
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Nov 3, 2022 18:52
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Can we please stop saying that Ukraine needs to establish a "beachhead" across the river? They are already across the river, half the country is across the river. Ukraine isn't obligated to follow the Russians out of Kherson.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:10
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Pook Good Mook posted:Can we please stop saying that Ukraine needs to establish a "beachhead" across the river? They are already across the river, half the country is across the river. Ukraine isn't obligated to follow the Russians out of Kherson. *Bridgehead and if they want to accomplish their stated goals of retaking all Ukrainian territory lost then by definition yes, they do. Eventually, not immediately tho
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Nov 3, 2022 19:20
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If your point is against the wording of calling the side that Russia is on as "their" , that is Russia's side, then yes it is Ukraine's, not Russia, all the way down to the Kerch Bridge. But practically, Russia's army is on the opposite side and Ukraine's army will have to plan how to establish themselves on that territory, which legally belongs to Ukraine, but does not physically belong to them at this moment.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:23
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Wrap it up Dniprfailures, there is no reason to try to cross the river. Just pack all forces from both sides in Donetsk, I'm sure the subsequent shortening of the front will not make it easier for Russia to stabilise it.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:27
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What are y'all talking about? Ukraine controlled all major river crossing except Kherson, and assuming the news is true, will soon control Kherson. They don't need to cross the Dnieper at Kherson to engage in offensive operations in the East. They've been engaging in offensives in the East since September. Why does everyone assume Ukraine is going to go through a meat grinder at Kherson when they have access to the eastern bank from Zaporizhzia all the way up to the Belarussian border? Yes, they will at some point have to clear out the Russians from all territory, but why is everyone assuming they can't attack from any position east of the river that they want?
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Nov 3, 2022 19:43
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Pook Good Mook posted:What are y'all talking about? Ukraine controlled all major river crossing except Kherson, and assuming the news is true, will soon control Kherson. I said in my first post on the subject I expect them to attack from Zaporizhzhia next, exactly because they do control that and it's on the east side of the river already. All I'm saying about Kherson is that once they take it, it seems wise to hold it and not attack south from it because it is an extremely narrow corridor across the Dnipro and yes, they already have a much wider corridor back at Zaporizhzhia to attack from instead.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:48
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Orthanc6 posted:I said in my first post on the subject I expect them to attack from Zaporizhzhia next, exactly because they do control that and it's on the east side of the river already. All I'm saying about Kherson is that once they take it, it seems wise to hold it and not attack south from it because it is an extremely narrow corridor across the Dnipro and yes, they already have a much wider corridor back at Zaporizhzhia to attack from instead. This I 100% understand and agree with. It's the posts about "following" from Kherson that I don't understand in the slightest.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:52
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Pook Good Mook posted:This I 100% understand and agree with. It's the posts about "following" from Kherson that I don't understand in the slightest. Maybe you would understand it better if you lived in Kherson with Russian batteries just across the river.
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Nov 3, 2022 19:57
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Can't Ukraine just HIMARS the hell out of the Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now?
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Nov 3, 2022 20:06
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Charliegrs posted:Can't Ukraine just HIMARS the hell out of the Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now? poo poo they can hit them with artillery just as much as Russia can them.
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Nov 3, 2022 20:11
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Pook Good Mook posted:This I 100% understand and agree with. It's the posts about "following" from Kherson that I don't understand in the slightest. Goon generals going be drawing silly arrows. Let it be I guess.
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Nov 3, 2022 20:31
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Charliegrs posted:Can't Ukraine just HIMARS the hell out of the Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now? Problem is that depending how close they get Russians can regular arty the HIMARS right back. Also there's evidence that Russia is setting up in civilian housing on that side of the river - they displaced a ton of residents recently and it's a good way to both provide cover from drones/satellites and protection from the weather. It also doesn't require any digging. that will make it much harder to do any kind of big strikes on Russian personnel/equipment
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Nov 3, 2022 20:40
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Anybody seen any coverage on where the displaced civilians from Kherson are actually going? My admittedly weak googling hasn't found any coverage, not sure if there any telegram posts on the subject,.
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Nov 3, 2022 21:28
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A massive investigation from Reuters on an abandoned base left behind by Russians leaving Balakliia. A lot of details from piles of documents of how chaotic the withdrawal was, and the unfortunately usual now stories of war crimes against civilians. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base
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Nov 3, 2022 22:30
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AP and PBS just published an investigation examining some of the incidents of civilians being killed by Russian forces in Bucha, which contains graphic imagery: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW8YYhUIK0s
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Nov 3, 2022 22:45
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Associated Press just put out short video of russian war crimes in Bucha, pretty harrowing stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW8YYhUIK0s Of course, it's Bucha so it's pretty graphic. e: dammit beaten by BM
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Nov 3, 2022 22:47
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WarpedLichen posted:Anybody seen any coverage on where the displaced civilians from Kherson are actually going? My admittedly weak googling hasn't found any coverage, not sure if there any telegram posts on the subject,. Based on reporting in Russian media, they mostly go down South to Crimea, but also other 'neighbouring Russian regions'. From how previous 'evacuations' from occupied territories worked, a lot of people first went to a makeshift filtration camp somewhere deep in LDNR, then to some transfer camp in a relatively good shape for a photo op (there's one in Jankoy in Crimea), and from there they were spread across most Russian regions as far as Primorsky Krai in the far East. Neighbouring regions simply don't have the capacity to accommodate hundreds of thousands of people, so it's safe to assume the same is going to happen here.
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Nov 3, 2022 22:50
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Paladinus posted:Based on reporting in Russian media, they mostly go down South to Crimea, but also other 'neighbouring Russian regions'. From how previous 'evacuations' from occupied territories worked, a lot of people first went to a makeshift filtration camp somewhere deep in LDNR, then to some transfer camp in a relatively good shape for a photo op (there's one in Jankoy in Crimea), and from there they were spread across most Russian regions as far as Primorsky Krai in the far East. Neighbouring regions simply don't have the capacity to accommodate hundreds of thousands of people, so it's safe to assume the same is going to happen here. Thanks for the insight, I was hopeful that there were local camps, but it makes sense to move them to areas less affected by the war (though I have my doubts about the state being able to provide adequate support for the displaced). Wonder if any of them will be able to make it back home after all this is over.
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Nov 4, 2022 00:16
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‘A joke that went out of control’: crowdfunding weapons for Ukraine’s war In just nine hours, the Prytula Foundation raised $5.5m from private donors to buy 50 FV103 Spartans used by the British Army https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/03/a-joke-that-went-out-of-control-crowdfunding-weapons-for-ukraines-war
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Nov 4, 2022 00:45
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WarpedLichen posted:Thanks for the insight, I was hopeful that there were local camps, but it makes sense to move them to areas less affected by the war (though I have my doubts about the state being able to provide adequate support for the displaced). Wonder if any of them will be able to make it back home after all this is over. Varies from place to place. Many locations are just summer camps or factory dormitories, and living conditions there, especially if you have to stay for over a month, are on a very broad spectrum. A lot also depends on whether volunteers have access to refugee camps in the region. People who manage to get out of Russia with the help of Russian volunteers sometimes complain about not having access to basic hygiene products, new underwear, lack of promised monetary compensation from Russia, tensions with the locals who think refugees are eating through their local budget, etc. I haven't heard any stories of torture or abuse from the people who managed to pass the filtration camp, which is the riskiest part of the journey. E: There's this BBC Russia article that goes into some details of how people get to Russia from Ukraine (I don't think there's an English version, so you'll need to use google translate). https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-62506121 Paladinus fucked around with this message at 01:36 on Nov 4, 2022 |
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Nov 4, 2022 01:31
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lilljonas posted:I think it would make more sense to cut off Russia's front south or Donetsk than to try to attack across the Dnipro. Like going towards Melitopol, just getting close enough to reliably shoot any transports across the single railroad south from Donetsk would make winter suck even more for Russia. And it would not require a contested river crossing. Agreed. Obviously my armchair is like any other’s, but I’d expect them to try in an event of Kherson recapture, which so far is incredibly thin on any verifiable evidence for buying into the ongoing rumour swirl, to go for Verkhnii Tokmak through like Huliaipole. Reason for that being that there’s a single east-west railway in on the Azov shore, and it runs Fedorivka-Verkhnii Tokmak-Volnovakha. Taking either of these three under control, or some kind of shooting overwatch that can take out a train, would mean that the only rail route to anything south or east of Melitopol’ is through the Kerch bridge.
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Nov 4, 2022 02:48
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Tuna-Fish posted:The symbol for metric tonne is just "t". MT is megatesla, an unit for measuring magnetic fields near neutron stars. Yeah no. When used in international trade metric tons is written MT. In the same way short ST and Long LT were written. This is the unit all the actual communications about quantities of bulk cargoes carried by vessel are communicated with practically. Paper work like bills of lading or contracts might be in lbs, bushels, barrels, what have you, but the unit that the draft surveys are done in that’s Metric Tons. When it appears in documents like Stability books MT is how it’s indicated. This isn’t science and SI. It’s ocean shipping my dude we were abbreviating the various types of tons by these conventions first.
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Nov 4, 2022 02:57
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Orthanc6 posted:Yes the aqueduct that supplies Crimea starts right next to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, same dam Russia's been threatening to blow up via accusing Ukraine of wanting to blow up. If Kherson is liberated, Ukraine will have control of their side of this dam. All they'd have to do is lower the reservoir in a controlled manner far enough for water to no longer reach the entrance of the Crimean aqueduct. They used to have a dam blocking off this entrance but Russia reopened it when the war started. Ukraine might prefer to rebuild this blockage instead, but that would mean keeping troops on the south side of the Dnipro and as discussed, suffer the same supply issues there they've been imposing on Russia. This and the volume of water in the Dniepr and the loss of the Aral Sea has had me wondering if this war is the first true war about fresh water. Among other things to be sure, but I suspect the Russians also want control of all of this water.
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Nov 4, 2022 04:15
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Heliogabalos posted:This and the volume of water in the Dniepr and the loss of the Aral Sea has had me wondering if this war is the first true war about fresh water. Among other things to be sure, but I suspect the Russians also want control of all of this water. Humanity has probably fought over access to fresh water since the dawn of time. http://www.justmeans.com/blogs/water-wars-fighting-over-earths-most-precious-fluid
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Nov 4, 2022 04:30
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Charliegrs posted:Can't Ukraine just HIMARS the hell out of the Russians on the other side of the Dnipro now? It's like 4-8 HIMARS systems versus hundreds of artillery tubes and MLRS systems. HIMARS isn't a trump card that makes the rest of the numbers totally immaterial.
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Nov 4, 2022 06:20
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Vox Nihili posted:It's like 4-8 HIMARS systems versus hundreds of artillery tubes and MLRS systems. HIMARS isn't a trump card that makes the rest of the numbers totally immaterial. Although the wide point that the Ukrainian army if being given a quite a bit of very accurate long range weapon systems, where as Russia is more relying on quite inaccurate artillery systems still stands. I mean Russia does seem to be getting some more drones from Iran and still has quite a few guided missiles left, but mostly they do seem to be relaying on pretty inaccurate stuff. If people are going to be dug into positions for a bit, I know I'd want to be on the side that actually has an accurate way to bomb the other. That's not even considering the better military intelligence that the Ukraine army certainly has access to.
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Nov 4, 2022 07:10
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Vox Nihili posted:HIMARS isn't a trump card that makes the rest of the numbers totally immaterial. It doesn't have to. As we've seen so far in the war the few HIMARS Ukraine has is still enough to cause devastate Russian forces while still being effective enough at shoot n' scoot tactics that the Russian forces haven't been able to stop them. Its pretty much your classic quality vs quantity gambit and so far as we've seen in the war the quality of HIMARS is pretty drat good vs the Russian quantity of tubes which has mostly under performed the expectations.
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Nov 4, 2022 08:23
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Heliogabalos posted:This and the volume of water in the Dniepr and the loss of the Aral Sea has had me wondering if this war is the first true war about fresh water. Among other things to be sure, but I suspect the Russians also want control of all of this water. Water and energy are very often part of the stakes in wars. But yeah, that will get a lot more prominent in the future. I was wondering when the Ukrainians get control back over the canal and fresh water to Crimea, if they can make some sort of deal to keep the water flowing in exchange of Russians not shelling the zaporizhzhia power plant and stop trying to cut it from the Ukrainian grid/hook it up to the Russian grid? A bit like the grain deal. That's probably naive to think. But that power plant running on emergency diesel generators while getting shelled from time to time isn't great.
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Nov 4, 2022 08:31
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Vox Nihili posted:It's like 4-8 HIMARS systems versus hundreds of artillery tubes and MLRS systems. HIMARS isn't a trump card that makes the rest of the numbers totally immaterial. 2-3 times that number. Russia still has not managed to destroy a single one apparently. They aren't a trump card but they're incredibly destructive at every level from destroying expensive equipment to blowing up buildings being used as barracks to even strategically significant stuff, eg the Kharkiv collapse was directly brought about by a HIMARS strike against the regional headquarters that crippled Russian ability to respond to the Ukrainian offensive. Anyways people do overstate the roll of HIMARS, but also they're a hugely useful tool that has systematically dismantled and degraded Russian capabilities in just what, a bit over 4 months? The lion's share of the credit for all Ukrainian successes goes to Ukrainians themselves, but they've certainly gotten a huge amount of value out of HIMARS. If Russia doesn't solve the HIMARS situation idk what chance they have.
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Nov 4, 2022 08:46
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mrfart posted:Water and energy are very often part of the stakes in wars. But yeah, that will get a lot more prominent in the future. The Ukrainians will not have to make any such deal. If the Russians intentionally (or unintentionally) happen to destroy or even cause radiological dispersal from a nuclear power plant they will have much bigger problems besides fresh water to Crimea. As has been mentioned, cutting the water supply will not cause any real problems for the Russians other than the PR issue and pissing off the farmers.
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Nov 4, 2022 08:56
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Herstory Begins Now posted:2-3 times that number. Russia still has not managed to destroy a single one apparently. They aren't a trump card but they're incredibly destructive at every level from destroying expensive equipment to blowing up buildings being used as barracks to even strategically significant stuff, eg the Kharkiv collapse was directly brought about by a HIMARS strike against the regional headquarters that crippled Russian ability to respond to the Ukrainian offensive. I'm talking about the systems operating in the Kherson theatre. There are a bunch on the Eastern fronts as well. Also not at all clear whether any have been lost, Ukraine does a very good job of keeping its own losses under wraps and there is scant credible reporting out of Russia, so we get a very rose-tinted impression of things here. I'm sure they are protecting them diligently with their best anti-air and such, but poo poo happens in war.
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Nov 4, 2022 09:22
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