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Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

nexous posted:

This is definitely my theory as well. Don’t look for idols, look for the camera man desperately trying to frame a shot.

I swear this was a rumour or theory about Russell and his ability to find idols.

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Nihonniboku
Aug 11, 2004

YOU CAN FLY!!!

Dugong posted:

I swear this was a rumour or theory about Russell and his ability to find idols.

Russell outright admitted that was his strategy. If camera operators weren't following him, he'd stop going in that direction and run in another direction. If they ran after him, he knew he was on the right track.

Apparently they don't do that anymore, and will have people reenact them finding the idol or clue.

Sighence
Aug 26, 2009



Shouldn't be me you're waiting on.

Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
It's not. Someone else. But I'll post the picks momentarily.

Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
Here's what we've got!



Blue is the safest tribe by a huge margin, with Ryan doing most of the heavy lifting.

Cody, James, and Jesse still have yet to see a draft.

Antiquated Pants, if you want to get a pick in, go ahead. But after this ep Friday 10PM EST will be the firm deadline.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
I was really torn between Karla, Ryan and Dwight

Leatherhead
Jul 3, 2006

For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast,
And breathed in the face of the foe as he passed;
And the eyes of the sleepers waxed deadly and chill,
And their hearts but once heaved, and for ever grew still

I'm actually a little nervous about my Dwight pick, on the off chance that whatever he finds per the preview backfires on him. But I'd feel even worse picking him later on, so here's hoping I get in under the wire.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I’m a little surprised more people didn’t pick Noelle. Do y’all think she’s going to be convinced not to play her idol, but then get blindsided? Or that she’s going to last longer than 2 weeks?

Studio
Jan 15, 2008



my pick was made without any real thought :coolfish:

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Chili posted:

But after this ep Friday 10PM EST will be the firm deadline.

hopefully I lose this week because I am absolutely going to miss this deadline at some point by virtue of not having watched the episode yet lol

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


garthoneeye posted:

I’m a little surprised more people didn’t pick Noelle. Do y’all think she’s going to be convinced not to play her idol, but then get blindsided? Or that she’s going to last longer than 2 weeks?

I think Noelle is probably a pretty safe pick to not go home for a few weeks. Survivors are likely not going to consider her a threat to win immunity and think they can get her out whenever. At least until the run one of the endurance challenges where she'd have a leg up being a leg down.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

garthoneeye posted:

I’m a little surprised more people didn’t pick Noelle. Do y’all think she’s going to be convinced not to play her idol, but then get blindsided? Or that she’s going to last longer than 2 weeks?
Doesn't she have a steal-a-vote, and not an idol?

Apparently a preview shows her being in trouble this episode. I hadn't heard about that when I made my pick and still haven't seen it, but I guess that's fine because actually, whoever the preview shows is in trouble is usually safe. :2bong:

I don't think she makes it that deep since people will fear her winning, and I also think the steal-a-vote could wind up making her a threat without being able to save her. But I thought the people in immediate danger were more likely to be... jeez I don't even know, Owen, Gabler, hmm... I don't know really. Vessi should be together enough to keep her safe for now though, I hope.

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

I’m an idiot. I somehow confused Noelle and Jeanine.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Oh for Jeanine, I thought about her, but figured with Ellie gone and with an idol to boot, people might start looking elsewhere for targets and she might slot in somewhere safely long-term. Even if they do target her now and flush the idol, that could buy her time to fit in somewhere too. Or she might not use the idol this week at all, and then I'd have more weeks where she'd look like a pretty safe pick.

I'm a little surprised no one at all apparently took her, though.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Fast Luck posted:

I'm a little surprised no one at all apparently took her, though.

The edit last week made me feel like she's out of touch with the game and/or bad at reading social clues so she just feels like a prime "gets voted out with an idol in her pocket" candidate to me

garthoneeye
Feb 18, 2013

IcePhoenix posted:

The edit last week made me feel like she's out of touch with the game and/or bad at reading social clues so she just feels like a prime "gets voted out with an idol in her pocket" candidate to me

I would agree except her closest ally just got voted out. Typically people who leave with an idol are people who have some reason to believe their position is stronger than it actually is. I don’t see how she gets to that point from where she is.

The only way I could see her getting voted out this week would be if she’s convinced she needs to play her idol on an ally and she gets vote split out.

Sighence
Aug 26, 2009

It seems pretty clear being ~baka strong~ is exactly as dumb as it sounds to us nerds. Jeanine has yet to really bond with Vesi and Coco would be harder since Vesi helped Baka.

I'm most worried if I'm on the Coco tribe though, I'm a social enemy by default and need three four more consecutive tribals to go my way before I have a majority.

Sighence fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Nov 2, 2022

Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
Alright, enough pushback on the early deadline. From now on the deadline will be before the new ep drops. But get picks in early if you can!

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

you should make a google form

Studio
Jan 15, 2008



Chili posted:

Alright, enough pushback on the early deadline. From now on the deadline will be before the new ep drops. But get picks in early if you can!

i will never stop pushing back!!! Let's get the deadline after the episode airs :slick:

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

JOHN CENA posted:

you should make a google form

SweetJahasus
Dec 23, 2005

Dragon Slayer
Samurai Warrior
Escape Artist
Viking
Chong-Ra Master

BE THE WIZARD

JOHN CENA posted:

you should make a google

Studio
Jan 15, 2008



Now I don't have to care about Eliminator 😎

Leatherhead
Jul 3, 2006

For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast,
And breathed in the face of the foe as he passed;
And the eyes of the sleepers waxed deadly and chill,
And their hearts but once heaved, and for ever grew still

Oop, flew too close to the sun.

STING 64
Oct 20, 2006

jeanine having an all time run of bad luck

curiousCat
Sep 23, 2012

Does this look like the face of mercy, kupo?

JOHN CENA posted:

jeanine having an all time run of bad luck

poor jeanine lol

Wraith of J.O.I.
Jan 25, 2012


weird edit not really explaining the votes for dwight?

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

I think it goes way back. Justine and Noelle were together, Cody was with Nneka and Jesse. Jesse did his “marriage” with Dwight but Dwight was really more with the women. So Jesse immediately blindsided Dwight with the Justine vote, and Cody was never really with Dwight. We saw Dwight and Noelle bonding more after this and they even had an opportunity to take a shot at the Nneka vote. I’ll admit I thought the Nneka vote and a couple challenge wins had made Vessi a tight group but I guess not that tight.

Also looking backward a bit, it was Noelle who really helped Baka win that challenge. Then tonight it was Noelle nurturing Jeanine after the blindside and who was taking the lead on the vote split against Coco. Jesse has this close relationship with Karla that we never saw him make, and I think he’s looking at this and saying wait, Noelle and I aren’t even that good, I’m way closer to Karla than I am to Jeanine and Owen, is this the way I want things to go?

So that’s why it could’ve been Noelle. As for why it landed on Dwight instead of her, the episode showed us Cody saying he’d rather it land on Dwight instead of her. I don’t know exactly why, but they’re a pair anyway so Jesse said sure, and Coco was glad to be saved and went with it too.

Here’s another interesting thing: when the big Noelle group was going to target a Coco, they were deciding between James and Ryan and ended up planning a vote split on them. But Cassidy and Karla’s names never came up! Another thing: Baka has been blindsided back-to-back tribals but both times Sami was not and voted in the numbers. So those are some players doing a nice job, especially Karla but that’s interesting from Sami too. I can’t believe he’s 19!

Finally, Gabler in that challenge was amazing.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


Wraith of J.O.I. posted:

weird edit not really explaining the votes for dwight?

They did though? There was even a confessional with Jesse saying he and Cody could go the risky route and take out Dwight.

Ironic Twist
Aug 3, 2008

I'm bokeh, you're bokeh
low- key moment of the episode was James telling Karla about the advantage and Karla just looking away like "god drat it, James"

mp5
Jan 1, 2005

Stroke of luck!

low- key moment of the episode was Probst telling the contestants about the challenge and Karla shaking her head in disgust

mp5 fucked around with this message at 09:30 on Nov 3, 2022

Shemp the Stooge
Feb 23, 2001
I have mixed feelings about this outcome. My last weeks pickem choice is now out which is a good thing but he was also on my tribal council team (benched) so I have less options there now. Also, I agree, Gabler really had a showing in that challenge, wow.

Wraith of J.O.I.
Jan 25, 2012


SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

They did though? There was even a confessional with Jesse saying he and Cody could go the risky route and take out Dwight.

i guess i missed that, what was the motivation for him rather than ryan?

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Jesse said he was closer to Karla than to Noelle, he wanted to work with Karla, and he didn't like how Noelle was taking over. Said voting Noelle would be the risky move vs the safe move of the big vote split. Went to Cody who said he'd rather do Dwight instead of Noelle. Jesse said he was fine with giving Cody his preference to help Cody feel empowered and like he has agency.

Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
Yeah I'll make a form.

Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
Here it is.

https://forms.gle/vxgn8HgEm3XxsoFPA

If you sent yours in already some other way you don't have to bother doing it again.

Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
We have our first casualties!

Leatherhead and Studio, you fought valiantly, but gtfo.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

gently caress I thought I had swapped gabler in for dwight on tribal council but I did not

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib

Shemp the Stooge posted:

Also, I agree, Gabler really had a showing in that challenge, wow.

I felt like the "this minute is for X" would have probably been a bit annoying to sit through, but goddamn did it seem to give Gabler some inhuman level of power.

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Chili
Jan 23, 2004

college kids ain't shit


Fun Shoe
"This minute is for Idaho" got the biggest laugh out of me Survivors gotten in a long time. He's kind of emerging as a real character. Got Coach-lite vibes.

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