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Bloody Pom posted:I apologize if this is bordering on Clancychat or getting away from the topic at hand, but surely there must be a breaking point to this. If Erdogan keeps pushing back against the alliance's wishes in this manner, how likely would it be that they eventually just decide it's not worth the trouble and leave Turkey to the wolves? The only real reason I can find for keeping them around is their control of the Bosporus. How long do you think turkey will keep control of the bosporus
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Nov 7, 2022 04:57
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Bloody Pom posted:I apologize if this is bordering on Clancychat or getting away from the topic at hand, but surely there must be a breaking point to this. If Erdogan keeps pushing back against the alliance's wishes in this manner, how likely would it be that they eventually just decide it's not worth the trouble and leave Turkey to the wolves? The only real reason I can find for keeping them around is their control of the Bosporus. NATO is not going to ditch Turkey, for any reason. Not only is there no mechanism I'm aware of in the NATO charter for doing such a thing, Turkey has enormous strategic importance such that they will put up with almost anything from them. Turkey will still be a NATO member long after Erdogan is dead.
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Nov 7, 2022 04:58
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Turkey is also playing ball on the grain shipments. That counts for a lot. Literally rebuilding the Ukrainian Navy also helps. e. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-new...ter%20accounts.
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Nov 7, 2022 05:00
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Bloody Pom posted:I apologize if this is bordering on Clancychat or getting away from the topic at hand, but surely there must be a breaking point to this. If Erdogan keeps pushing back against the alliance's wishes in this manner, how likely would it be that they eventually just decide it's not worth the trouble and leave Turkey to the wolves? The only real reason I can find for keeping them around is their control of the Bosporus, and Russia is so depleted at this point that any attempt to exert military influence over Turkey would be even more disastrous than what we're currently seeing. It would be great if only democracies were allowed to be in NATO, but unfortunately it’s not going to happen, because of Turkey’s massive strategic value.
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Nov 7, 2022 05:16
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So whose idea was it to give every individual NATO country veto power?
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Nov 7, 2022 05:19
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Alan Smithee posted:So whose idea was it to give every individual NATO country veto power? If Estonia gets invaded and half the members just say, "well, we didn't like them anyway," you don't have much of an alliance.
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Nov 7, 2022 05:27
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Alan Smithee posted:So whose idea was it to give every individual NATO country veto power? Do you think any country on the planet would enter a collective defense alliance without having a veto over who gets into the alliance?
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Nov 7, 2022 09:19
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Erdogan plays a very aggressive game of making Turkey indispensible and getting what he wants while not making friends along the way, but he knows which side his toast is buttered. As long as there isn't actually any imminent threat to Finland and Sweden he can posture for internal cred while actually squaring off against the Russians in the Baltic.
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Nov 7, 2022 09:33
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Out of curiosity I've checked CSTO charter for that :CSTO charter article 19 posted:Any state sharing the goals and principles of the Organization and being ready to undertake the obligations containing in this Charter and other international treaties and resolutions effective within the framework of the Organization may become a member of the Organization. Looks like they don't expect an influx of new members. I wonder what would happen if Iran has suddenly become interested in joining. Or even spicier - DNR and LNR.
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Nov 7, 2022 09:34
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alex314 posted:Out of curiosity I've checked CSTO charter for that : DNR and LNR are now officially parts of Russia, as Russia wants you to believe that. CSTO is pretty much toast after its members left Armenia hanging, so I don't think we should be concerned with its charter.
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Nov 7, 2022 10:02
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Azerbaijan is busy doing warcrimes in Armenia and the CSTO isn't doing anything, even though Armenia invoked article 4 lol.
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Nov 7, 2022 11:22
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The War in Ukraine has done to CSTO what Putin had hoped it would instead do to NATO - test its collective solidarity and resolve and find them wanting, leading to dissension in the ranks and some members actively pursuing their own interests at the expense of each other. Not only do the membership (except Belarus, and this support is limited/indirect) want nothing to do with supporting the invasion (compared to NATO who have been surprisingly willing to oppose it), it has caused dissension and division amongst the membership, including very visibly showing one of its main benefits - the Article 5 equivalent - to be completely worthless, with Armenia's desperate cries for help against increasingly dangerous Azerbaijani aggression being ignored. Every member is now almost certainly thinking about the value of having Russia as their main security guarantor, with some, like Kazakhstan, increasingly assertively pursuing their own interests, whilst others have been using Russia's current weak position as an opportunity to seek better terms (ie: more $). I'm also sure that the usual critics would vocally oppose any expansion of CSTO with the same rigor that they do with NATO. Tigey fucked around with this message at 11:26 on Nov 7, 2022 |
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Nov 7, 2022 11:23
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Tigey posted:Not only do the membership (except Belarus, and this support is limited/indirect) want nothing to do with supporting the invasion (compared to NATO who have been surprisingly willing to oppose it) Belarus-Russia cooperation in this context is built on the legal basis established by the Union State treaties, rather than the CSTO treaties.
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Nov 7, 2022 11:54
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https://twitter.com/rumeliobserver/status/1589262580979228673?t=goZvoy2kJwXtGn9zhEEd8g&s=19 Moldova is coming under pressure from protesters. They're a poor country, not in the EU, took in a huge number of refugees, and their energy prices are rising like everyone else's. Oh, and apparently a major power station of theirs is controlled by Transnistria, and Russia is funding the opposition candidate. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/28/russia-fsb-moldova-manipulation/
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Nov 7, 2022 12:15
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This is a guy from Moldova I actively follow, he says not too buy into news making it a very big deal - shows a picture from a drone saying that the protests weren't large, most of them are people bussed in for mass and that the pro-wrstern government has good support https://mobile.twitter.com/latiniano/status/1589333097614839809
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Nov 7, 2022 12:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Belarus-Russia cooperation in this context is built on the legal basis established by the Union State treaties, rather than the CSTO treaties. A good way to understand how various countries in the region are linked: 
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Nov 7, 2022 17:43
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Return of steam locomotives https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1589364220092510208
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Nov 7, 2022 18:56
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Bloody Pom posted:I apologize if this is bordering on Clancychat or getting away from the topic at hand, but surely there must be a breaking point to this. If Erdogan keeps pushing back against the alliance's wishes in this manner, how likely would it be that they eventually just decide it's not worth the trouble and leave Turkey to the wolves? The only real reason I can find for keeping them around is their control of the Bosporus, and Russia is so depleted at this point that any attempt to exert military influence over Turkey would be even more disastrous than what we're currently seeing. Turkey is much much more valuable to NATO then Sweden or Finland. They have a military which is fine independently rather than being completely dependent on the US, their becoming a weapons manufacturer of some note in their own right, and their geographical location is incredibly important even beyond the bosphorus, and they have great power projection for the Middle East. Finland does bring a good deal of value to the alliance since it’s so close to St. Petersburg, can monitor Murmansk and the northern fleet easily and it has a very decent military but if the choice is between it and turkey turkey wins easily.
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Nov 7, 2022 21:23
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Finland does bring a good deal of value to the alliance since it’s so close to St. Petersburg, can monitor Murmansk and the northern fleet easily and it has a very decent military but if the choice is between it and turkey turkey wins easily. Sweden is also valuable as they have a surprisingly good weapons industry, and also a pretty decent army with which to safeguard the Baltic etc, but yeah Turkey would win the usefulness contest in that case too. As you say, the geography of Turkey is just a massive advantage e: I'm not too worried about the NATO expansion, Turkey will eventually yield (according to the expert estimates I've seen) and then it's no longer a competition, NATO can have both Turkey and the Nordics
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Nov 7, 2022 21:39
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:
Surely Norway is already more than close enough to Murmansk
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Nov 7, 2022 22:45
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TheRat posted:Surely Norway is already more than close enough to Murmansk It's closer, actually!
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Nov 7, 2022 22:51
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FishBulbia posted:Return of steam locomotives These take so much maintenance just insane crazy amounts of man hours. ... ... Or there are boiler explosions.
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Nov 7, 2022 22:55
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Bar Ran Dun posted:These take so much maintenance just insane crazy amounts of man hours. https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1589353970283446272
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Nov 7, 2022 23:07
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cinci edit:  corpses in open sight, other combat aftermath sceneryhttps://theins.ru/en/news/256786 A good article about some recent Russian military disasters. Hundreds of marines were killed near Vuhledar and Ukraine received new shipments of SAM systems. Pavlivka is mauling the RUAF. article posted:On the evening of November 6, the Russian Pacific Fleets 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade was revealed to be in critical condition. The soldiers stationed near Pavlivka (a village in the Marinka district of the Donetsk Region of Ukraine) in the Vuhledar area handed the governor of Russias Primorye a letter complaining about the command and asking him to send a commission to stop an ill-planned and unprepared attack on the Ukrainian armys positions. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Nov 8, 2022 |
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Nov 7, 2022 23:20
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HonorableTB posted:cinci edit: This seems to be pretty big including larger propaganda perspective. Frontline troops increasingly rely on war correspondents and their telegram channels to voice their various grievances which are usually about generals being garbage and also cynical bastards who send them to die for a medal. Said war correspondents are of course pro war and various shades of fascist but do not try to fit with existing propaganda system who's message was "everything's fine, goes according to plan. Telegram correspondents with ties to Wagner, abovementioned marines or more or less proffessionalish forces openly criticize russian MoD, generals and seem one step away from blaming Putin himself for how crappily this war is led. There was even an attempt by MoD to start trials against them for "discrediting the armed forces" but seemed to have quietly died down, traditional tv propaganda seems confused right now on where they aught to direct their outrage. Normal response would be to just not report any failures but telegram reporters make huge noise while also being so far untouchable. Somebody fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Nov 8, 2022 |
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Nov 8, 2022 00:01
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HonorableTB posted:cinci edit: i found it interesting that the russian defense ministry has actually directly denied this occurred and instead said that the regiment in question has successfully advanced 10 kilometers into the ukrainian lines over the last two weeks reuters characterizes the official denial as "rare" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-issues-rare-denial-pointless-losses-by-brigade-ukraine-2022-11-07/ i find the bit about advancing 5 kilometers a week hard to believe, but i'm not sure about the casualty figure either way it points to the defense ministry feeling pressured enough over the conduct of the war that they felt the need to directly address telegram rumors
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Nov 8, 2022 02:29
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i found it interesting that the russian defense ministry has actually directly denied this occurred and instead said that the regiment in question has successfully advanced 10 kilometers into the ukrainian lines over the last two weeks It must be actually worse than reported if Russia denied it.
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Nov 8, 2022 04:04
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:It must be actually worse than reported if Russia denied it. "Our mighty armies remain undefeated on the battlefield and we have liberated thousands of kilometers of land from the fascist just this week alone!" "That bad huh?"
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Nov 8, 2022 04:12
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William Bear posted:A good way to understand how various countries in the region are linked: if you strike out half of them and write "lol" in place, anyway - CIS: peaked in relevance during Gorbachev's resignation speech - GUAM: idk, they have a fancy building and like 2 reserved parking spots on Maidan Nezalezhnosti - CISFTA: i guess ukraine and moldova wanted some economic treaties despite things? - Baltic Assembly: while quite possibly a relevant international organization for its constituent staes, this is more a collective "gently caress you" to the rest of the FSU, albeit mostly to Russia, than linkage to it - the Union State: Batka obtains cheap gas via symbolic concessions, multi-decade long game! it's what's on your migration card when you enter either Russia or Belarus! like migration cards in the modern day, nobody gives two fucks about the Union State - CSTO: the members that aren't actively shooting at each other aren't defending each other, but at least it was cool when the A-Team parachuted into Almaty, i guess. sucks to be Armenia - CDRN: plz - neutral turkmenistan: i suppose maybe uzbekistan being involved in basically nothing (except the conspicuously absent regional organization that actually does matter) is sorta noteworthy
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Nov 8, 2022 08:06
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i found it interesting that the russian defense ministry has actually directly denied this occurred and instead said that the regiment in question has successfully advanced 10 kilometers into the ukrainian lines over the last two weeks I can believe the advancement claim. Looking at livemapUA, Russia was never in control of Pavlivka and they've made progress towards it in recent weeks. They took Yehorivka to the south a week or so ago. I think as far as I can tell, Russia was slowly advancing in that direction, met Ukrainian resistance at Pavlivka, then stopped advancing. Whether the Russian troops had such a crushing defeat there is less certain but it does look like their advance was halted.
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Nov 8, 2022 09:22
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 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/we-were-completely-exposed-russian-conscripts-say-hundreds-killed-in-attackThe Guardian had an article about recent losses in the Russian military which was a gut-wrenching read (hence the tag, there are no pictures). It talks about the 'incomprehensible assault the village of Pavlivka', but it's mostly about conscripts left by their superiors to die in the trenches near Svatove.
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Nov 8, 2022 10:59
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mrfart posted:
How is Russia still able to stay in this conflict with losses like these?
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Nov 8, 2022 16:32
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Kraftwerk posted:How is Russia still able to stay in this conflict with losses like these? Because they have 20 million conscript-able men and people exaggerate
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Nov 8, 2022 16:40
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Kraftwerk posted:How is Russia still able to stay in this conflict with losses like these? There’s a lot of space between “a naval infantry brigade took maybe 10% casualties in a single action” and “out of the war” Not implying that the wars or situations are similar but the sort of extreme marker for what it takes to knock a country out of a war is something like the Red Army with 8.6 million combat deaths in world war 2. Huge losses can be sustained with sufficient will.
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Nov 8, 2022 18:21
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Russia has a lot of humans it can theoretically put in uniform. The problem for Putin is political, because his whole gimmick depends on most people being able to ignore the war (and politics in general) most of the time. Nobody really knows the breaking point but it's not going to be dictated by theoretically draftable humans in Russia, it's going to be way less than that.
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Nov 8, 2022 18:43
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:There’s a lot of space between “a naval infantry brigade took maybe 10% casualties in a single action” and “out of the war” Exactly. Russia isn’t gonna run out of men, we can only hope that these men at some point will not have sufficient will to go into battle for their oligarchs. And/or the latter realizing in a brief moment of sanity that this whole thing is going to destroy everything, including their loving fiefdom.
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Nov 8, 2022 18:44
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Deaths in Ukraine are, generously, 100k for the Russians. Russian reported deaths to COVID are 820k. The Demographics of the deaths are different, of course, but the Russian army will run out of many things before men. Armies are destroyed by destroying their will to fight moreso than actually killing them all, although the terrible organization of the Russian army is killing that just as effectively.
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Nov 8, 2022 19:00
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The Russian Army was probably approaching its breaking point before mobilization, they just didn't have enough troops to cover all of the front. Nows it's a question of how much time 300k men will buy them.
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Nov 8, 2022 19:03
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Deaths in Ukraine are, generously, 100k for the Russians. Russian reported deaths to COVID are 820k. Maybe something even a step further. The "will to fight" if we can call it that for Russians is unlikely to break anytime soon. The propaganda has been ingrained for two decades + lots of the mobiks have the defeated "gently caress it gonna die anyway" attitude and just march to the trenches even if they don't get a rifle or food or clothing. They don't have a will to fight but still go to the trench to get bombed. More likely the first thing to crumble is the economy, hopefully, bad enough to literally stop the war. The COVID deaths were mostly older pensioners who were not huge players in the economy. Russia was doing just fine before February. Now Russia is under huge sanctions, is mobilizing the economically important 18-35 segment of the population, + having 3-5x of that mobilized number also flee the country, further screwing the economy. Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Nov 8, 2022 |
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Nov 8, 2022 19:08
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Deaths in Ukraine are, generously, 100k for the Russians. Russian reported deaths to COVID are 820k. The official number of covid deaths in Russia is 383k. And yes, there wasn't a huge uproar about almost 500k extra deaths on top of official covid stats, people were more rattled when Russia tried to implement lockdowns.
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Nov 8, 2022 19:15
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