[Ukraine] Missing in Action: Western Minds

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Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Lostconfused posted:

That's actually supposedly only the US position even. At least Rezident keeps posting about how Zelensky refuses to negotiate at all. While nobody knows what Kremlin is thinking and all the pro russians are constantly doing the alsaqr about another betrayal.

True, but in that case, it also signals that the US doesn't think the Ukrainians are getting Kherson. You usually don't propose a demand that you think your ally could accomplish on their own.

speng31b posted:

well, you have to keep in mind it's the US saying this stuff, you'd need a crystal ball to guess what Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government think is realistic.

The cynical (and quite probably correct) take is that the US sees public support for continued and escalated funding of the war fading, and wants to signal openness to negotiations to Ukraine as well as internal audiences so that public opinion doesn't fade faster than NATO can achieve its goals. But may or may not be actually open to said negotiation.

Yeah, getting Kherson back probably wouldn't be enough to satisfy the more extreme elements in both the Ukrainian government/military/paramilitary forces. In addition, this is assuming the Russians are even interested in negotiating.

The US does have a issue though in that the war is growing more unpopular at home and in Europe, and that domestic issues are very soon going to be the focus of attention in the the states. In addition, with the Senate possibly switching hands, Biden administration may not have the leverage they once did to force war-funding bills without significant concessions.

Biden may want to "turn this thing off" with a proposal that no one actually wants.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:01

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# ? May 23, 2024 07:59

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Canada has the only kilted Irish Regiment in the world, and the Irish Regiment wears the caubeen (same headdress as the Ulster Defence Regiment), just to give you an idea.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:05

Southpaugh: May 26, 2007; Smokey Bacon

Frosted Flake posted:

I was thinking about a good way to explain what happened in terms readily comparable to the English-speaking world and I think I have one.

Canada has an Irish culture totally at odds, as in diametrically opposed, to how it's understood in Ireland and the rest of the English-speaking world. The reason is that Canada all-but banned immigration of Irish Catholics but went out of the way to encourage the immigration of Irish Protestants so that uniquely the vast majority of Irish in (English) Canada are Proddies. This is opposed to the demographics of the two Irelands, past and present, but also contrasts with Australia, who received mostly transported Irish Catholics and the US, which received mostly Irish Catholics fleeing the Great Famine. Even during the Great Famine, when there was a great deal of traffic to Montreal, what Irish Catholics that landed here went to the States as soon as they were able, or stayed in Montreal if they were too poor or sick to travel to the US.

So, what it means to be "Irish" in Canada (the Belfast of the North) is very different than what it means anywhere else, just like what it means to be "Ukrainian" in Canada is very different than what it meant in the majority of Ukraine. We have an Irish culture created by Ulstermen in the image of Ulster, similarly we have allowed Galicians to create a picture of Ukraine in the image of Galicia. Canadian Irish were militant supporters of the Orange Order, the Political activities of the Ukrainian diaspora here are well known. Iirc Canadian support for the UDR/RUC and Crown was much higher than it ever was for the IRA and I only ever heard the IRA referred to as terrorists, in the media and by everyone I knew, growing up in the 90's and 2000's. In the same way that being Irish means to fight for King and Country, the Ukrainian "national struggle" as understood here, means to have fought against the USSR, rather than having been part of it.

Most, and by that it's got to be 90% these days, of Canadians are oblivious to this, because how would they know? We have Irish bars, just like Australia and the US, and how would you know which names are Scots Gaelic instead of Irish or that the Red Hand of Ulster is not the kind of ticky tacky Irish pub decoration found in Ireland? It's totally normal for the Union Jack to be generic pub decoration in Irish pubs and nobody would really think about that or even notice. As far as anyone here is concerned, that's just what Irish culture is, it's uncontroversial. "Irish" dress here is as often as not Lowland Scot, most places have "Scottish and Irish" Stores (so, Scots-Irish), but who is going to know if people wear trews in Ireland? You just go there to get plum pudding to bring to Christmas or to look for a tartan scarf or cable knit sweater, or an outfit for a wedding, and there's not much to it.

Same thing with Ukraine. People see flower crowns and "national costume" and hear the "national story" and that's it. Ukrainian culture is pretty common in Canada, I grew up knowing pierogis as varenyky, and understanding all Ukrainians are Catholic, and that's all there was to it.

So, you know, these things happen. People aren't going to interrogate these assumptions and it lets a lot of stuff go by under the radar.

Theres a disconnect between people who understand irishness as "morally acceptable whiteness", the kiss me im irish crowd. and people who understand the irish role in the empire. The British Empire is a long time period, people who happened to be from the same place but with different class interests may well end up being both heroes and villains, historically speaking.

What FF is talking about here is comes from the Plantations of the Elizabethan and Cromwellian periods. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantations_of_Ireland

So the children of these planters take up the roles of landowners, aristocrats and warriors in the time period to come. Eventually you have a distinct identity the scots irish and the generally less fearsome Anglo-Irish, these are the people who would have had meaningful power as administrators and legbreakers within the Empire itself. These people are a distinct class from what would go on the be known as "Catholic Irish". The catholic irish were the people who provided the labour power in Ireland and across the empire as wanted. I.e. (Non commissioned) Soldiers, builders, indentured servants, maids, cleaners and hookers.

Worth noting that the anglo irish would also produce the much of the leadership and the big thinkers in the IRB. So when people break things down for you in a simplistic sectarian way just hold up your hand and say Theobald Wolfe Tone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfe_Tone

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:08

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Ardennes posted:

True, but in that case, it also signals that the US doesn't think the Ukrainians are getting Kherson. You usually don't propose a demand that you think your ally could accomplish on their own.

Yeah, getting Kherson back probably wouldn't be enough to satisfy the more extreme elements in both the Ukrainian government/military/paramilitary forces. In addition, this is assuming the Russians are even interested in negotiating.

The US does have a issue though in that the war is growing more unpopular at home and in Europe, and that domestic issues are very soon going to be the focus of attention in the the states. In addition, with the Senate possibly switching hands, Biden administration may not have the leverage they once did to force war-funding bills without significant concessions.

Biden may want to "turn this thing off" with a proposal that no one actually wants.

eh, I think everyone involves understands that this funding is highly bipartisan and will continue no matter what, at least at the levels where negotiation is actually happening. there's a possibility that continued funding is an issue for trump in 2024 but given the margins by which all the bills have passed so far, i don't think there's an appetite on either side to turn off the money tap right now, and until trump steps up and leads the charge, no one in congress has the guts to lead that particular charge

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:08

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Ardennes posted:

In addition, with the Senate possibly switching hands, Biden administration may not have the leverage they once did to force war-funding bills without significant concessions.

Biden may want to "turn this thing off" with a proposal that no one actually wants.

It's worth noting that polling from about 4 days ago shows clearly that among Republicans, who will likely retake the Senate, opinion has shifted dramatically against war funding in recent months.

https://thehill.com/homenews/3717304-more-republicans-opposed-to-continued-ukraine-aid-survey/

quote:

The poll, published Thursday, found that 48 percent of registered Republican respondents said that they believe the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine fend off the invasion from its neighbor, up from only 6 percent earlier this year.

Seventeen percent of Republicans in the new survey said that they believe the U.S. isn’t doing enough to help Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, a 44-point decrease from the 61 percent of GOP respondents who shared the same sentiment in March.

An overwhelming majority of registered Democrats — 81 percent — said that they support additional financial aid for Ukraine, as did 35 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independent respondents.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:08

genericnick: Dec 26, 2012

speng31b posted:

well, you have to keep in mind it's the US saying this stuff, you'd need a crystal ball to guess what Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government think is realistic.

The cynical (and quite probably correct) take is that the US sees public support for continued and escalated funding of the war fading, and wants to signal openness to negotiations to Ukraine as well as internal audiences so that public opinion doesn't fade faster than NATO can achieve its goals. But may or may not be actually open to said negotiation.

It's not really clear to me what the offer is supposed to be. Russia gives up territory it still controls, stops its attacks on infrastructure and gets????

Frosted Flake posted:

Canada has the only kilted Irish Regiment in the world, and the Irish Regiment wears the caubeen (same headdress as the Ulster Defence Regiment), just to give you an idea.

Lmao. History is cool.

genericnick has issued a correction as of 18:14 on Nov 7, 2022

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:09

Southpaugh: May 26, 2007; Smokey Bacon

Frosted Flake posted:

Canada has the only kilted Irish Regiment in the world, and the Irish Regiment wears the caubeen (same headdress as the Ulster Defence Regiment), just to give you an idea.

so nice to see living history

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:09

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Azathoth posted:

eh, I think everyone involves understands that this funding is highly bipartisan and will continue no matter what, at least at the levels where negotiation is actually happening. there's a possibility that continued funding is an issue for trump in 2024 but given the margins by which all the bills have passed so far, i don't think there's an appetite on either side to turn off the money tap right now, and until trump steps up and leads the charge, no one in congress has the guts to lead that particular charge

I am more skeptical about "no matter what" in the sense the Republicans are going to have a lot of leverage and if polling is pushing against war funding they may make a move to demand concessions. They know the administration needs the funding, and they have a laundry list of their wildest dreams.

Also, the Republicans are going to want to blame Biden for everything going "wrong" across the next 2 years and it war funding may provide an opportunity for them to speak up. Obviously, the US has bet a lot on this and they don't want to walk away without a result that is acceptable them.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:18

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Ardennes posted:

I am more skeptical about "no matter what" in the sense the Republicans are going to have a lot of leverage and if polling is pushing against war funding they may make a move to demand concessions. They know the administration needs the funding, and they have a laundry list of their wildest dreams.

Also, the Republicans are going to want to blame Biden for everything going "wrong" across the next 2 years and it war funding may provide an opportunity for them to speak up. Obviously, the US has bet a lot on this and they don't want to walk away without a result that is acceptable them.

I agree with this take. The Republicans in power won't actually want to be any less bloodthirsty, but the polling among their voters has taken a clear turn here, at least from the funding standpoint. I think they're going to play both sides on this one extremely heavily for the next 2 years, assuming the conflict continues that long.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:20

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

fits my needs posted:

saw this at school dropping-off this morning, slava ukraini

I would love to live in a place where seeing a Ukraine bumper sticker on a car is a notable event. That's just normal, they're everywhere. Some have been on so long they are sun bleached now. I know one business on it's second Ukraine flag.

The UPA flags are still flying but they never expanded outside the Ukrainian neighborhoods thankfully.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:22

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

Azathoth posted:

eh, I think everyone involves understands that this funding is highly bipartisan and will continue no matter what, at least at the levels where negotiation is actually happening. there's a possibility that continued funding is an issue for trump in 2024 but given the margins by which all the bills have passed so far, i don't think there's an appetite on either side to turn off the money tap right now, and until trump steps up and leads the charge, no one in congress has the guts to lead that particular charge

Yeah the republicans would never use any sort of political leverage to get things that they want, ever, that's just not like them at all.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:22

Organ Fiend: May 21, 2007; custom title

speng31b posted:

The cynical (and quite probably correct) take is that the US sees public support for continued and escalated funding of the war fading, and wants to signal openness to negotiations to Ukraine as well as internal audiences so that public opinion doesn't fade faster than NATO can achieve its goals. But may or may not be actually open to said negotiation.

That's more or less what I meant by PR. Keeping the West's civilian populations (especially those in Europe) happy about sending untold billions to Ukraine is every bit as critical to their war effort as rail lines and ammunition.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:23

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Oh my God

It all makes sense now.

e: Tricked by the wily Spaniards. Still weird that wikipedia has a template for the Ulster banner and Canadian flag combined though.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 18:32 on Nov 7, 2022

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:25

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Ardennes posted:

I am more skeptical about "no matter what" in the sense the Republicans are going to have a lot of leverage and if polling is pushing against war funding they may make a move to demand concessions. They know the administration needs the funding, and they have a laundry list of their wildest dreams.

Also, the Republicans are going to want to blame Biden for everything going "wrong" across the next 2 years and it war funding may provide an opportunity for them to speak up. Obviously, the US has bet a lot on this and they don't want to walk away without a result that is acceptable them.

Republicans are less gung ho than Dems sure and yeah GOP leadership will use that to extract some concessions, but the idea that if put to a heads up vote the Republicans will vote against war funding is uh...well that's farfetched to me. Ukraine funding is a massive benefit to the MIC and they're as serious about cutting that off as Josh Hawley is about reining in corporate power.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:25

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

speng31b posted:

for the next 2 years, assuming the conflict continues that long.

Ukraine and Russia both have elections in 2024. No point in stopping until then.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:26

genericnick: Dec 26, 2012

Frosted Flake posted:

As with all things, looking at the literature on Georgia leads to people being more candid than they are about Ukraine. Specifically there is a good deal of anger that Georgia negotiated an end to the war:

"In 2008 Russia invaded Georgia, occupied 20 percent of its territory, and got away with it. As a result, today we are all Georgians, in the sense that we are all victims of various forms of Russian aggression emanating from an emboldened Kremlin. The August 2008 invasion of Georgia was a Beta test for future aggression against Russia�s neighbors and a dry run for the tactics and strategies that would later be deployed in the 2014 invasion of Ukraine...Thirteen years ago, a new era of Kremlin aggression began and it went unchecked. Today we are paying the price."

"The conflict provided a number of lessons. First, Putin was prepared to start a war in order to force a country that he regarded as within Russia�s sphere of influence to heel. Putin repeated this with Ukraine in 2014. Second, the US was not able to prevent the conflict (though it tried), but was able to prevent Putin from destroying Georgian sovereignty in the immediate aftermath. The US was able to do much the same for Ukraine: it could not reverse Russia�s immediate gains in Ukraine, but did help Ukraine prevent Putin from destroying Ukrainian sovereignty."

"Thirdly, while Georgia successfully defended its sovereignty with US and European support, it did not use the time gained to strengthen the country from within. Saakashvili�s successor, the Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, won election by capitalizing on Saakashvili�s shortcomings, but has neither continued Saakashvili�s most successful reforms nor launched his own. Georgia�s politics have drifted, with Russian influence slowly growing. Ukraine has done somewhat better maintaining, albeit unevenly, its own reforms, even though it remains under even greater threat of Russian aggression than Georgia."

"The weak international response to Russia�s invasion of Georgia greenlighted Russia�s subsequent military assault on Ukraine. Many senior officials of transatlantic governments with whom I worked to mediate the conflicts over Georgia�s breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia condemned Russia�s invasion, but also blamed then-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for provoking Vladimir Putin. Hence, the ceasefire agreement brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy was one-sided in favor of Moscow, while the subsequent EU report about the five-day war (incorrectly) blamed Georgia for firing the first shots. Later in 2008, Paris announced plans to sell Russia a Mistral-class helicopter carrier, prompting a Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff to declare how much easier it would have been to defeat Georgia with the ship already in Russia�s arsenal."

"The Georgian army held out for two days, but on the third day its lines broke and it retreated toward Tbilisi. The Russians advanced but, with the Georgian army prepared to fight for the capital, stopped short. French President Nicolas Sarkozy then negotiated a flawed ceasefire. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to France and Georgia with fighting still flaring, worked out corrections to the ceasefire, and obtained Saakashvili�s signature."

There's no use to it because liberals deliberately have no memory, but you can very easily link what the perceived shortcomings of the Georgia War were - Why agree to a truce rather than destroy the capital? Why allow mention that the war had causes? Why allow a ceasefire at all? - with the course corrections that have brought us here. They say so in their own words.

"The reaction of the West was slow and weak. French President Nicolas Sarkozy negotiated ceasefire terms that Moscow largely violated without consequence. The Kremlin learned that the West preferred to ignore or at least minimize Russian bad behavior in the so-called Near Abroad."

So, maximalist war, no negotiation, no ceasefire.

Blatant lying by the Atlantic Council. But I really appreciate how they just write it down.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:26

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

speng31b posted:

It's worth noting that polling from about 4 days ago shows clearly that among Republicans, who will likely retake the Senate, opinion has shifted dramatically against war funding in recent months.

https://thehill.com/homenews/3717304-more-republicans-opposed-to-continued-ukraine-aid-survey/

Public opinion has no impact on US foreign policy. If the relevant parts of the US state want to keep waging the war then the GOP will be made to fall in line. DeSantis specifically has a lot of Blob affiliates around him so he will get his faction on board.

Trump, as always, is a bit more of a wild card but we know he'll cave under enough pressure from the rest of the ruling class.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:26

Loucks: May 21, 2007; It's incwedibwe easy to suck my own dick.

Atrocious Joe posted:

Public opinion has no impact on US foreign policy.

you can just say policy.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:28

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

Frosted Flake posted:

Oh my God

Just to head off any confusion for anyone lurking or whatever, this is Spanish Galicia, not the region of Galicia that sits between Poland and Ukraine.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:29

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

Loucks posted:

you can just say policy.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:29

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Atrocious Joe posted:

Public opinion has no impact on US foreign policy. If the relevant parts of the US state want to keep waging the war then the GOP will be made to fall in line. DeSantis specifically has a lot of Blob affiliates around him so he will get his faction on board.

Trump, as always, is a bit more of a wild card but we know he'll cave under enough pressure from the rest of the ruling class.

I also think it's a fig leaf and they'll do what they always do, but if polling continues to trend away from war funding that will have some impact down the line.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:30

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Majorian posted:

Just to head off any confusion for anyone lurking or whatever, this is Spanish Galicia, not the region of Galicia that sits between Poland and Ukraine.

We need to start coming up with new names.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:31

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1589594865863905281

Ukraine's got a drone-killer. Good for them.

\/\/\/lol\/\/\/

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:32

Organ Fiend: May 21, 2007; custom title

Majorian posted:

Just to head off any confusion for anyone lurking or whatever, this is Spanish Galicia, not the region of Galicia that sits between Poland and Ukraine.

*Tears up his letter to the ADL asking the red maple leaf to be designated as a hate symbol*

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:32

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Atrocious Joe posted:

Public opinion has no impact on US foreign policy. If the relevant parts of the US state want to keep waging the war then the GOP will be made to fall in line. DeSantis specifically has a lot of Blob affiliates around him so he will get his faction on board.

Trump, as always, is a bit more of a wild card but we know he'll cave under enough pressure from the rest of the ruling class.

My operative theory about Trump is that he is not so much made to fall in line as someone relevant brings him in on the grift and then he's cool with it. That is, if someone shows him how to make money like LBJ's wife investing in a helicopter company (I think it was helicopters, I can't be bothered to check) and then LBJ going all in on Vietnam and buying a bunch of helicopters (or whatever it was), Trump is gonna get on board real fast, but if he doesn't get to wet his beak, he's gonna oppose it on the general principle that if it doesn't benefit him it's not worth doing.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:32

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009

Frosted Flake posted:

We need to start coming up with new names.

drat Celtic migrations! :argh:

Yes, yes, pedants, I know, the EE Galicia name probably doesn't actually come from the Celts.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:33

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Azathoth posted:

Republicans are less gung ho than Dems sure and yeah GOP leadership will use that to extract some concessions, but the idea that if put to a heads up vote the Republicans will vote against war funding is uh...well that's farfetched to me. Ukraine funding is a massive benefit to the MIC and they're as serious about cutting that off as Josh Hawley is about reining in corporate power.

I think the Republicans are going to maintain party discipline and I doubt there will be a straight shutdown of any bill. That said, I doubt certainly see them start tinkering with the funding to bring it down less arms shipments (which are a small part of the bill) but probably more on the civilian/fiscal side.

That and/or they give a little room for Biden on the bill funding itself but they attach a bunch of riders on it that make it so politically costly for the Democrats but gives the Republicans everything they want. Biden is going to sign any bill that touch his desk that satisfies military spending, but the Republicans can play around with it.

The Republicans know they have the administration where they want it, and in that sense, giving some money to the MIC isn't that much of a push but it is just everything else that is up for grabs.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 18:39 on Nov 7, 2022

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:34

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Ardennes posted:

That and/or they give a little room for Biden on the bill funding itself but they attach a bunch of riders on it that make it so politically costs for the Democrats but gives the Republicans everything they want. Biden is going to sign any bill that touch his desk that satisfies military spending, but the Republicans can play around with it.

it's this

quote:

�I�m very supportive of Ukraine,� McCarthy said. �I think there has to be accountability going forward. � You always need, not a blank check, but make sure the resources are going to where it is needed. And make sure Congress, and the Senate, have the ability to debate it openly.�

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:37

StashAugustine: Mar 24, 2013; Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

Frosted Flake posted:

We need to start coming up with new names.

Bring it up with Georgia

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:38

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

Azathoth posted:

My operative theory about Trump is that he is not so much made to fall in line as someone relevant brings him in on the grift and then he's cool with it. That is, if someone shows him how to make money like LBJ's wife investing in a helicopter company (I think it was helicopters, I can't be bothered to check) and then LBJ going all in on Vietnam and buying a bunch of helicopters (or whatever it was), Trump is gonna get on board real fast, but if he doesn't get to wet his beak, he's gonna oppose it on the general principle that if it doesn't benefit him it's not worth doing.

Trump Organization 2 will get first option for any property on the Ukraine privatization site

Don Jr. is gonna get the NAFO trademark

Ivanka will have a new modelling agency that recruits from Ukrainian refugees

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:39

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Ardennes posted:

I think the Republicans are going to maintain party discipline and I doubt there will be a straight shutdown of any bill. That said, I doubt certainly see them start tinkering with the funding to bring it down less arms shipments (which are a small part of the bill) but probably more on the civilian/fiscal side.

That and/or they give a little room for Biden on the bill funding itself but they attach a bunch of riders on it that make it so politically costs for the Democrats but gives the Republicans everything they want. Biden is going to sign any bill that touch his desk that satisfies military spending, but the Republicans can play around with it.

The Republicans know they have the administration where they want it, and in that sense, giving some money to the MIC isn't that much of a push but it is just everything else that is up for grabs.

Yeah, I think we're broadly in agreement. I just sorta jump ahead and say that everyone knows the funding will get done, regardless of how that particular piece of sausage is made. I don't think anyone in Russian or Ukrainian leadership has any doubts that funding for Ukraine will happen and the numbers might ebb and flow a little bit, or take less direct "lethal aid" and more monetary stuff, but at the end of the day, that money is going over there in one form or another.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:40

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

Atrocious Joe posted:

Trump Organization 2 will get first option for any property on the Ukraine privatization site

Don Jr. is gonna get the NAFO trademark

Ivanka will have a new modelling agency that recruits from Ukrainian refugees

Don Jr. becoming a NAFO dweeb would be the funniest goddamn thing ever

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:41

speng31b: May 8, 2010

Azathoth posted:

Yeah, I think we're broadly in agreement. I just sorta jump ahead and say that everyone knows the funding will get done, regardless of how that particular piece of sausage is made. I don't think anyone in Russian or Ukrainian leadership has any doubts that funding for Ukraine will happen and the numbers might ebb and flow a little bit, or take less direct "lethal aid" and more monetary stuff, but at the end of the day, that money is going over there in one form or another.

For now that's all correct, but if this keeps going towards the general election and the economy tanks from the fed's repeated intentional sabotage among other things, who knows. But that's tomorrow's speculation

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:44

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

The US DoD just put out their new National Defense Strategy so we can look at what they say their priorities are

quote:

DEFENSE PRIORITIES
Together, these rapidly evolving features of the security environment threaten to erode the United States' ability to deter aggression and to help maintain favorable balances of power in critical regions. The PRC presents the most consequential and systemic challenge, while Russia poses acute threats - both to vital U.S. national interests abroad and to the homeland. Other features of the security environment, including climate change and other transboundary threats, will increasingly place pressure on the Joint Force and the systems that support it. In this context, and in support of a stable and open international system and our defense commitments, the Department's priorities are:

Defending the homeland, paced to the growing multi-domain threat posed by the PRC;

Deterring strategic attacks against the United States, Allies, and partners;

Deterring aggression, while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary - prioritizing the PRC challenge in the Indo-Pacific region, then the Russia challenge in Europe, and;

Building a resilient Joint Force and defense ecosystem.

https://www.defense.gov/National-Defense-Strategy/

If the military turns against more aid to Ukraine it's because they view it as a distraction from the main enemy.

Here's more on China and Russia specfically

quote:

Strategic Competition with the People's Republic of China (PRC)
The most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security is the PRC's coercive and increasingly aggressive endeavor to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences. The PRC seeks to undermine U.S. alliances and security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, and leverage its growing capabilities, including its economic influence and the PLA's growing strength and military footprint, to coerce its neighbors and threaten their interests. The PRC's increasingly provocative rhetoric and coercive activity towards Taiwan are destabilizing, risk miscalculation, and threaten the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. This is part of a broader pattern of destabilizing and coercive PRC behavior that stretches across the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and along the Line of Actual Control.

Russia as an Acute Threat
Even as the PRC poses the Department's pacing challenge, recent events underscore the acute threat posed by Russia. Contemptuous of its neighbors' independence, Russia's government seeks to use force to impose border changes and to reimpose an imperial sphere of influence. Its extensive track record of territorial aggression includes the escalation of its brutal, unprovoked war against Ukraine. Although its leaders' political and military actions intended to fracture NATO have backfired dramatically, the goal remains. Russia presents serious, continuing risks in key areas.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:46

Azathoth: Apr 3, 2001

speng31b posted:

For now that's all correct, but if this keeps going towards the general election and the economy tanks from the fed's repeated intentional sabotage among other things, who knows. But that's tomorrow's speculation

Yeah, the real wildcard, as folks have pointed out, is what position Trump takes. For all we know, he's spent the last couple years investing heavily in Raytheon and LockMart and will go full in on nuclear war being a good thing or just as easily he could see Russia as a loser for not being able to conquer Ukraine outright and throw in with them because the brainworms were all leaning in a weird direction one day

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:48

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Azathoth posted:

Yeah, I think we're broadly in agreement. I just sorta jump ahead and say that everyone knows the funding will get done, regardless of how that particular piece of sausage is made. I don't think anyone in Russian or Ukrainian leadership has any doubts that funding for Ukraine will happen and the numbers might ebb and flow a little bit, or take less direct "lethal aid" and more monetary stuff, but at the end of the day, that money is going over there in one form or another.

Athe same time, the Biden administration probably doesn't want this thing to last forever. The Republicans are not going to cut him off completely, but "accountability" is going to be a tricky issue considering what we know about where arms shipments are actually going. I could see them giving Biden some "rope" initially and then raise hell when some weapons obviously go missing.

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:51

John Charity Spring: Nov 4, 2009; SCREEEEE

Frosted Flake posted:

I was thinking about a good way to explain what happened in terms readily comparable to the English-speaking world and I think I have one.

Canada has an Irish culture totally at odds, as in diametrically opposed, to how it's understood in Ireland and the rest of the English-speaking world. The reason is that Canada all-but banned immigration of Irish Catholics but went out of the way to encourage the immigration of Irish Protestants so that uniquely the vast majority of Irish in (English) Canada are Proddies. This is opposed to the demographics of the two Irelands, past and present, but also contrasts with Australia, who received mostly transported Irish Catholics and the US, which received mostly Irish Catholics fleeing the Great Famine. Even during the Great Famine, when there was a great deal of traffic to Montreal, what Irish Catholics that landed here went to the States as soon as they were able, or stayed in Montreal if they were too poor or sick to travel to the US.

So, what it means to be "Irish" in Canada (the Belfast of the North) is very different than what it means anywhere else, just like what it means to be "Ukrainian" in Canada is very different than what it meant in the majority of Ukraine. We have an Irish culture created by Ulstermen in the image of Ulster, similarly we have allowed Galicians to create a picture of Ukraine in the image of Galicia. Canadian Irish were militant supporters of the Orange Order, the Political activities of the Ukrainian diaspora here are well known. Iirc Canadian support for the UDR/RUC and Crown was much higher than it ever was for the IRA and I only ever heard the IRA referred to as terrorists, in the media and by everyone I knew, growing up in the 90's and 2000's. In the same way that being Irish means to fight for King and Country, the Ukrainian "national struggle" as understood here, means to have fought against the USSR, rather than having been part of it.

Most, and by that it's got to be 90% these days, of Canadians are oblivious to this, because how would they know? We have Irish bars, just like Australia and the US, and how would you know which names are Scots Gaelic instead of Irish or that the Red Hand of Ulster is not the kind of ticky tacky Irish pub decoration found in Ireland? It's totally normal for the Union Jack to be generic pub decoration in Irish pubs and nobody would really think about that or even notice. As far as anyone here is concerned, that's just what Irish culture is, it's uncontroversial. "Irish" dress here is as often as not Lowland Scot, most places have "Scottish and Irish" Stores (so, Scots-Irish), but who is going to know if people wear trews in Ireland? You just go there to get plum pudding to bring to Christmas or to look for a tartan scarf or cable knit sweater, or an outfit for a wedding, and there's not much to it.

Same thing with Ukraine. People see flower crowns and "national costume" and hear the "national story" and that's it. Ukrainian culture is pretty common in Canada, I grew up knowing pierogis as varenyky, and understanding all Ukrainians are Catholic, and that's all there was to it.

So, you know, these things happen. People aren't going to interrogate these assumptions and it lets a lot of stuff go by under the radar.

as a corollary to this: a lot of the Scottish Gaels who emigrated to Canada were actually catholics and as late as WW2 were being repressed by the Canadian authorities because it was thought they were an IRA fifth column who would support Hitler, as a result

canada rules, it's a loving mess

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:51

Alpha 1: Feb 17, 2012

It's worth noting that Republicans are already using Ukraine funding as a political attack:

https://twitter.com/ErikSperling/status/1589307188216225793

Obviously the Republicans won't turn off the money spigot to the war machine, but it's going to have some interesting effects on America's domestic politics. I think the Ukrainian focus on integrating into the liberal consumer identity is going to hurt their liberal allies long term. The war is no longer an engaging media spectacle, demands to make sacrifices for Ukraine resonate less and less as conditions decay, and the bloodthirst the war propaganda has inspired in liberals is becoming genuinely creepy and alienating. Very few people are willing to risk dying in a nuclear war over Donetsk Oblast, and this position is becoming associated with liberals and their institutions like the Democratic party. Democrats are going to be stuck defending an increasingly unpopular war for a country fewer and fewer people care about, while Republicans can call for an end to the war (and then blame the deep state when they keep funding it).

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:54

Lostconfused: Oct 1, 2008

Finding any mention of this in English is impossible, and it's really difficult for me to scoure Ukrainian source to get any more info because even there it's not the hottest of topics.

Резидент posted:

The crisis in Ukraine's energy sector is growing. For example, a week ago, Naftogaz tried to stop gas supplies to the Trypilska thermal power plant (the most powerful in Kyiv Region), which during rolling blackouts across the country looks more like sabotage. Only the prompt intervention of the Office of the President made it possible to find a temporary solution to the problem of non-payments between state-owned Centrenergo and Naftogaz.

However, Naftogaz did not stop there and initiated the stoppage of gas supplies to eight major regional gas distribution companies (Dneprogas, Dnepropetrovskgas, Kharkovgas, Kharkovhogaz, Melitopolgas, Chernovtsygas, Mariupolgas and Luganskgas). What does this policy mean when on the eve of the winter season all consumers who are connected to the networks of these regional gas stations, including households and businesses, may be left without gas? Only that Minister Galushchenko is not interested in the critical situation with non-payments in the industry, but in his personal financial interests. The only thing that matters is the active lobbying for electric energy exports through the newly created state-owned EKU company. Instead of saving coal for the winter, this coal was actively burned all fall at the state-owned power plants to generate electricity for export.

_{(from t.me/rezident_ua/14977, via tgsa)}

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:56

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# ? May 23, 2024 07:59

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

John Charity Spring posted:

as a corollary to this: a lot of the Scottish Gaels who emigrated to Canada were actually catholics and as late as WW2 were being repressed by the Canadian authorities because it was thought they were an IRA fifth column who would support Hitler, as a result

canada rules, it's a loving mess

To give people an idea of how the Troubles were reported here by the Paper of Record:

October 13, 2001 posted:

As many as 10 members of the deadly Irish Republican Army slipped into Canada over the summer to raise money to support their terror campaign back home, Canadian law-enforcement sources say.

Members of the Catholic paramilitary group entered Canada via Pearson International Airport between July and August, sources said, and quickly melded into the large Irish community in Mississauga, on the outskirts of Toronto.

Intelligence sources suggested that the IRA members travelled to Canada as part of renewed fundraising efforts in the wake of the deteriorating political climate in Northern Ireland, where the government is on the verge of collapse over the reluctance of the IRA to give up hidden weapons caches.

Border guards with the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency are concerned that new guidelines introduced by Ottawa to snare suspected terrorists of Middle Eastern descent may have cast too narrow a net, allowing other individuals who could pose a threat to Canada's national security to enter the country.

"We are, understandably, concentrating on a particular profile at the moment, but the concern is we are giving others, like the IRA, a free pass," a senior customs source said.

Intelligence sources say that the IRA has traditionally seen Canada as a rich and reliable source of money to finance its propaganda campaigns and weapons purchases abroad. "The IRA has long thought of Canada and particularly the United States as a safe haven," an intelligence source said.

The U.S. Department of State excluded the IRA from its list of foreign terrorist organizations. It did, however, include the Real IRA, a group of staunch republicans who believe that the Sein Fein, the IRA's political wing, "sold out" the movement. A spokesman for the Department of Foreign Affairs refused to say whether the IRA is a terrorist network, insisting the paramilitaries were now part of the peace process.

That's right, one month after 9/11, our concern was the deadly Irish Republican Army.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 18:59 on Nov 7, 2022

# ? Nov 7, 2022 18:56

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Ukraine] Missing in Action: Western Minds

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