the demokkkrats are going to be destrroyed in 2024 (inshallah)

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > the demokkkrats are going to be destrroyed in 2024 (inshallah)

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HallelujahLee: May 3, 2009

I havent read anythimg on the michigan thing besides a random tweet

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:34

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:32

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Now that the mail voting from California is starting to trickle in, they have confirmed that New York (and New York city specifically) was the Republicans' best state last night, lmao.

https://twitter.com/NYTMetro/status/1590511252446801922

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:37

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Now that the mail voting from California is starting to trickle in, they have confirmed that New York (and New York city specifically) was the Republicans' best state last night, lmao.

https://twitter.com/NYTMetro/status/1590511252446801922

Great call running on crime panic in New York. Glad all those Cuomo holdovers are still in charge of the party there and still making disastrous mistakes.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:41

Noob Saibot: Jan 29, 2020; by Fluffdaddy

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The (now former) head of the DCCC is one of the four Democrats in NYC who lost a seat to a Republican, lmao.

Just to clarify how weird and crazy the situation is:

- The head of the DCCC lost to a Republican.
- 4 districts in LIBERAL NEW YORK CITY VALUES flipped to Republicans.
- Democrats lost a suburban and highly educated district in New Jersey that was the district of an incumbent running for re-election.
- Republicans successfully defended two districts in Miami that people assumed were flukes in 2020.

Yet, at the same time:

- Democrats are doing better in Montana than they did in districts in the middle of NYC.
- The #4 of the Republican conference who had a gerrymandered R+9 district to protect her lost to a random Democrat.
- Democrats are leading a race in Alaska to beat both Sarah Palin and the Republican grandson of the Alaskan politician who over half of all government buildings in Alaska are named after.
- Dems took an R+13 district in southern Ohio.

Literally 100% of the Republican majority is likely to come from deep NYC and suburban New Jersey.

And Dems are likely going to to keep the losses to a minimum because, in the same election they got spanked in NYC, they are flipping Republican districts in rural PA, suburban NC, Alaska, and rural Ohio.

The Republican party is going to have a tiny house majority powered by New York courts that tossed out the Democratic gerrymander, orthodox Jews, and New York City urbanites upset about crime.

Truly a weird one.

Republicans are now the party of the coastal elites and the Democratic Party is now the party of rural white working class people

This country is in a process of rebalancing

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:45

reignonyourparade: Nov 15, 2012

The Voice of Labor posted:

so, like, exactly nothing has changed then except michigan is getting better?

while not what I would really have liked, I think this can be considered a triumph for democracy

e: wasn't this how the midterms during obama's first term played out? except the michigan part

we are going to have 2 term joe and a cadaver impeachment

The big difference is obama's first midterms had a better starting point so while the end result is the same, the fall was shorter.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:48

Tibalt: May 14, 2017; What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

The Voice of Labor posted:

so, like, exactly nothing has changed then except michigan is getting better?

while not what I would really have liked, I think this can be considered a triumph for democracy

e: wasn't this how the midterms during obama's first term played out? except the michigan part

we are going to have 2 term joe and a cadaver impeachment

Naw dems got murdered in 2010, they lost 63 seats in the house and 6 seats in the senate. This is basically a tie

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:53

tiberion02: Mar 26, 2007; People tend to make the common mistake of believing that a situation will last forever.

a_gelatinous_cube posted:

I might be biased with the people I'm around because I work a manual labor job, but after covid it went from boy there are sure a lot more hardcore republican guys around here than there used to be, to wow almost every single person in here is an anti-vax conspiracy guy now and I honestly just blame Joe Rogan.

totally correct analysis

shredder brown is a decent-to-good Senator, but has been recently lucky with election cycles. yes the pro-union, anti-oligarch views are great, and probably the best we'll ever do. he narrowly won in 2012 on Obama coattails (against Josh Mandel, a more embarrassing version of Ben Shapiro) - and in 2018 during the anti-trump midterms (against Jim $100M Renacci, who incredibly sucks and got bodied by MIke DeWine lmao).

OH will never be blue again, and Sherrod is the last statewide dem elected in OH

# ? Nov 10, 2022 02:58

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

reignonyourparade posted:

The big difference is obama's first midterms had a better starting point so while the end result is the same, the fall was shorter.

One weird trick to having a great midterm is to have no coattails at all when you win in the first place

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:03

Covok: May 27, 2013; Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.

PostNouveau posted:

Great call running on crime panic in New York. Glad all those Cuomo holdovers are still in charge of the party there and still making disastrous mistakes.

I'm a New Yorker. This doesn't surprise me at all. Even my liberbal parents who proudly voted Democrat this election were telling me to be careful going into the city and to be extra safe. People are 100% convinced crime is out of control. Hell, even I was for a bit until I went to NYC and realized it hadn't changed at all and people were being silly.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:08

Xaris: Jul 25, 2006; Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The (now former) head of the DCCC is one of the four Democrats in NYC who lost a seat to a Republican, lmao.

Just to clarify how weird and crazy the situation is:

- The head of the DCCC lost to a Republican.
- 4 districts in LIBERAL NEW YORK CITY VALUES flipped to Republicans.
- Democrats lost a suburban and highly educated district in New Jersey that was the district of an incumbent running for re-election.
- Republicans successfully defended two districts in Miami that people assumed were flukes in 2020.

Yet, at the same time:

- Democrats are doing better in Montana than they did in districts in the middle of NYC.
- The #4 of the Republican conference who had a gerrymandered R+9 district to protect her lost to a random Democrat.
- Democrats are leading a race in Alaska to beat both Sarah Palin and the Republican grandson of the Alaskan politician who over half of all government buildings in Alaska are named after.
- Dems took an R+13 district in southern Ohio.

Literally 100% of the Republican majority is likely to come from deep NYC and suburban New Jersey.

And Dems are likely going to to keep the losses to a minimum because, in the same election they got spanked in NYC, they are flipping Republican districts in rural PA, suburban NC, Alaska, and rural Ohio.

The Republican party is going to have a tiny house majority powered by New York courts that tossed out the Democratic gerrymander, orthodox Jews, and New York City urbanites upset about crime.

Truly a weird one.

Covok posted:

I'm a New Yorker. This doesn't surprise me at all. Even my liberbal parents who proudly voted Democrat this election were telling me to be careful going into the city and to be extra safe. People are 100% convinced crime is out of control. Hell, even I was for a bit until I went to NYC and realized it hadn't changed at all and people were being silly.

ah, the Ian Fidance transformation

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:10

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Cortez Masto might still win

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1590525992917151744

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:21

HashtagGirlboss: Jan 4, 2005

Covok posted:

I'm a New Yorker. This doesn't surprise me at all. Even my liberbal parents who proudly voted Democrat this election were telling me to be careful going into the city and to be extra safe. People are 100% convinced crime is out of control. Hell, even I was for a bit until I went to NYC and realized it hadn't changed at all and people were being silly.

The crime wave narrative has absolutely broken people�s brains

Local media is trash ofc but also people are loving idiots

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:22

StratGoatCom: Aug 6, 2019; Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice

lmao that it was zoomers.

They gonna be good and pissed at the dems by 2024, that leopard never changes his spots.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:26

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

HashtagGirlboss posted:

The crime wave narrative has absolutely broken people�s brains

Local media is trash ofc but also people are loving idiots

There were a lot more shootings, assaults, and murders in NYC the past two years. But, crime overall was pretty flat or down because violent crime is a relatively small amount of total crime.

So, it is pretty silly, but not entirely invented. You are more likely to get assaulted or shot in NYC today than you were at any other point in the last 30 years, but that chance is still incredibly small in the grand scheme of things and not even close to as high as it was in the 70's. That answer doesn't really make people feel any better if you tell them that, though.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:27

Grem: Mar 29, 2004; It's how her species communicates

Boebert is losing by 73 votes. She's gonna win.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:29

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

There were a lot more shootings, assaults, and murders in NYC the past two years. But, crime overall was pretty flat or down because violent crime is a relatively small amount of total crime.

So, it is pretty silly, but not entirely invented. You are more likely to get assaulted or shot in NYC today than you were at any other point in the last 30 years, but that chance is still incredibly small in the grand scheme of things and not even close to as high as it was in the 70's. That answer doesn't really make people feel any better if you tell them that, though.

Pretty much none of this is true, the "more dangerous than any time in the last thirty years" thing in particular is an insane lie

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:33

alarumklok: Jun 30, 2012

Vox Nihili posted:

Pretty much none of this is true, the "more dangerous than any time in the last thirty years" thing in particular is an insane lie

would the nypd (and affiliated parties) just lie like that about something so important???

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:35

maruhkati: Sep 29, 2021; NAZ REID

The thing is, the "crime wave" narrative didn't work anywhere except New York, even in places where crime is provably, statistically worse. It failed catastrophically in my home state, which is full of easily frightened white folks two years after George Floyd.

The fact that NYC has a shithouse mayor who is obsessed with freaking out over crime, and that NYS's party leadership is staggeringly incompetent, is the far more parsimonious explanation.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:38

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Vox Nihili posted:

Pretty much none of this is true, the "more dangerous than any time in the last thirty years" thing in particular is an insane lie

Murders, shootings, and violent crime were way up in NYC in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Murder was up 47% and shootings were up 72%.

You are right that I was slightly off on the number of years. Violent crime is currently about as high as it was in 2002, so it is about 20 years and not 30 years.

Those are pretty small parts of overall crime, though. The total murders increased by about 140. Not great that 140 more people were murdered, but it is also a city of about 8 million, so your chance of getting murdered is still incredibly small in 2022, even if it is higher than it was in 2019.

Leon Trotsky 2012 has issued a correction as of 03:43 on Nov 10, 2022

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:40

PerniciousKnid: Sep 13, 2006

Vox Nihili posted:

Pretty much none of this is true, the "more dangerous than any time in the last thirty years" thing in particular is an insane lie

Forcing people to drive cars everywhere, weakening/capturing inspection and environmental regulatory regimes, war and globalism kill and injure more people than assaults by orders of magnitude but those things are all crimes committed by the people who define what a crime is. Arguing about whether or not there are more shootings now than 30 years ago is just accepting the enemy's frame of reference.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:40

alarumklok: Jun 30, 2012

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Murders, shootings, and violent crime were way up in NYC in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Murder was up 47% and shootings were up 72%.

You are right that I was slightly off on the number of years. Violent crime is currently about as high as it was in 2002, so it is about 20 years and not 30 years.

your graphs only show 2020, the year cops were briefly on the defensive and trying to justify their stupid loving existence, and the data you pulled is literally sourced from their stupid loving mouths. you are a stupid loving moron

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:44

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

StratGoatCom posted:

lmao that it was zoomers.

They gonna be good and pissed at the dems by 2024, that leopard never changes his spots.

much like cspammers who voted for obama once upon a time.

will the circle stay unbroken....

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:46

Cassette Moodcore: May 4, 2022

yeah BUT, but, what if you just don�t give a gently caress if someone offs you and you have life insurance, New York is looking pretty good place to move to pal

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:49

Mokelumne Trekka: Nov 22, 2015; Soon.

A new crop of Zoomers will be eligible to vote by 2024, wide-eyed and hopeful. It's a continuous process. Boomers will also die.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:52

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

alarumklok posted:

your graphs only show 2020, the year cops were briefly on the defensive and trying to justify their stupid loving existence, and the data you pulled is literally sourced from their stupid loving mouths. you are a stupid loving moron

It rose 30% nationwide in 2020, 18% in 2021, and is still up in 2022. They didn't fake tens of thousands of death certificates and dead bodies in every major town all at once over two years. lol. Every independent study also says the same thing. They all also say that crime overall is down. It's just specifically violent crime (particularly gun crime) and murder that is up.

quote:

The United States in 2020 experienced the biggest rise in murder since the start of national record-keeping in 1960, according to data gathered by the F.B.I. for its annual report on crime.

The Uniform Crime Report will stand as the official word on an unusually grim year, detailing a rise in murder of around 29 percent. The previous largest one-year change was a 12.7 percent increase in 1968.

quote:

About 77 percent of reported murders in 2020 were committed with a firearm, the highest share ever reported, up from 67 percent a decade ago.

The change in murder was widespread � a national phenomenon and not a regional one. Murder rose over 35 percent in cities with populations over 250,000 that reported full data.

It also rose over 40 percent in cities 100,000 to 250,000, and around 25 percent in cities under 25,000.

No geographic area was spared. The F.B.I. reported in March that murder was up at least 20 percent in every region of the country, including around a 30 percent increase in the Midwest.

quote:

Even with the rise in murders and a roughly 5 percent increase in violent crime, the new data shows that overall major crimes fell about 4 to 5 percent in 2020.

Murder, although it carries the highest societal cost, makes up a tiny portion of major crimes as defined by the F.B.I..

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/upshot/murder-rise-2020.html

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:53

ClassActionFursuit: Mar 15, 2006

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Murders, shootings, and violent crime were way up in NYC in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Murder was up 47% and shootings were up 72%.

You are right that I was slightly off on the number of years. Violent crime is currently about as high as it was in 2002, so it is about 20 years and not 30 years.

Those are pretty small parts of overall crime, though. The total murders increased by about 140. Not great that 140 more people were murdered, but it is also a city of about 8 million, so your chance of getting murdered is still incredibly small in 2022, even if it is higher than it was in 2019.

These charts show 2020 but it's 2022. 2020 isn't a year I'd use in any statistical analysis for obvious reasons. So discarding that year, between 2016 and 2019 shootings are down almost 20%...

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:53

Teriyaki Hairpiece: Dec 29, 2006; I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

code:

EXT.WHITE HOUSE- FRONT OF BUILDING - 11/7/2022
Biden divides the lists between some SENIOR FBI OFFICERS.

BIDEN
(pointing to the list)
Shoot her before him but make sure
he sees it. And this one. Kill him,
take him to his church, dump him in
the pulpit.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:55

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Willa Rogers posted:

much like cspammers who voted for obama once upon a time.

will the circle stay unbroken....

Hey, I was an LFer back then :colbert:

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:55

Apraxin: Feb 22, 2006; General-Admiral

Grem posted:

Boebert is losing by 73 votes. She's gonna win.

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590536579512406016

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:56

hobbesmaster: Jan 28, 2008

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Murders, shootings, and violent crime were way up in NYC in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Murder was up 47% and shootings were up 72%.

You are right that I was slightly off on the number of years. Violent crime is currently about as high as it was in 2002, so it is about 20 years and not 30 years.

Those are pretty small parts of overall crime, though. The total murders increased by about 140. Not great that 140 more people were murdered, but it is also a city of about 8 million, so your chance of getting murdered is still incredibly small in 2022, even if it is higher than it was in 2019.

are �shooting incidents� shot spotter activations or something else?

# ? Nov 10, 2022 03:58

HashtagGirlboss: Jan 4, 2005

The big lie wrt crime wave narrative especially wrt shootings/assaults is that these are crimes your average tourist or commuter or resident has anything to be particularly afraid of

Raw numbers may be up but the violence is within specific communities that your average tourist or commuter or resident simply does not interact with

The spike is real. The consequences are real. The fear is manufactured

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:07

The Voice of Labor: Apr 8, 2020

alarumklok posted:

your graphs only show 2020, the year cops were briefly on the defensive and trying to justify their stupid loving existence, and the data you pulled is literally sourced from their stupid loving mouths. you are a stupid loving moron

tbf, where do crime stats come from other than cops?

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:11

alarumklok: Jun 30, 2012

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It rose 30% nationwide in 2020, 18% in 2021, and is still up in 2022. They didn't fake tens of thousands of death certificates and dead bodies in every major town all at once over two years. lol. Every independent study also says the same thing. They all also say that crime overall is down. It's just specifically violent crime (particularly gun crime) and murder that is up.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/upshot/murder-rise-2020.html

contested over the validity of 2020 as a data point, you cite another source for 2020

here's one for 2021 from more cops since you think they're straight shooters:

quote:

Overall violent crime volume decreased 1.0% for the nation from 1,326,600 in 2020 to 1,313,200 in
2021, which was up 5.6% from 2019.

https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/nibrs-estimation

The Voice of Labor posted:

tbf, where do crime stats come from other than cops?

pretty much no where, which means the numbers are not trustworthy, which is the entire loving point

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:14

Cassette Moodcore: May 4, 2022

doesn�t NYC still use Compstat to track its �crime� stats and racially profile/set up quotas because a hearty lmao if so

in this state, we subscribe to the broken window theory and I will not have it any other way thank you very much

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:15

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

I live in an area with occasional gang violence (in my region, not, like, my neighborhood) but its practically always gang on gang violence as established gangs squabble for territory and ranking. They don't involve random bystanders and they aren't really expansionary. Its terrible to read about a murder taking place in an area you could walk to on a nice day, but the odds of it ever involving anyone outside of a few scattered blocks of gang territory or affiliated with one of the gangs are slim to none. Violence happens, but its hardly random, I'm not at risk, and the cops aren't going to do poo poo about stopping it.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:16

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

HashtagGirlboss posted:

The big lie wrt crime wave narrative especially wrt shootings/assaults is that these are crimes your average tourist or commuter or resident has anything to be particularly afraid of

Raw numbers may be up but the violence is within specific communities that your average tourist or commuter or resident simply does not interact with

The spike is real. The consequences are real. The fear is manufactured

Nix Panicus posted:

I live in an area with occasional gang violence (in my region, not, like, my neighborhood) but its practically always gang on gang violence as established gangs squabble for territory and ranking. They don't involve random bystanders and they aren't really expansionary. Its terrible to read about a murder taking place in an area you could walk to on a nice day, but the odds of it ever involving anyone outside of a few scattered blocks of gang territory or affiliated with one of the gangs are slim to none. Violence happens, but its hardly random, I'm not at risk, and the cops aren't going to do poo poo about stopping it.

Pretty much.

Sadly, a huge portion of the gun violence is drug related, gang related, or domestic incidents. The "good" news is that the already pretty small chance of getting murdered shrinks to an even smaller subsection of an already small likelihood because the violence is largely concentrated about certain groups or areas.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:33

Buschmaki: Dec 26, 2012; ‿︵‿︵‿︵‿Lean Addict︵‿︵‿︵‿

Just a few months ago my brother was directly opposite of some dudes who shot at someone they knew in a car from their stoop, so I guess I can empathize with people who worry they or people they know will be randomly gunned down. Hell I guess I'm the target audience for ads like that since someone also broke into my apt. and stabbed him; but even saying that if I hear the words "Tough on Crime" from a politician or them talking about how they love the police they lose all goodwill I could ever hold for them but I dont expect 70 year old rich white people to understand that. Cant wait for the Dems to instead implement gun control that doesnt just leave insane fascists armed and address the root cause of most violent crime which is structural poverty 😎👍

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:46

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

Vox Nihili posted:

Pretty much none of this is true, the "more dangerous than any time in the last thirty years" thing in particular is an insane lie

the 90s were only 15 years ago. i remember them well.

HashtagGirlboss posted:

The big lie wrt crime wave narrative especially wrt shootings/assaults is that these are crimes your average tourist or commuter or resident has anything to be particularly afraid of

Raw numbers may be up but the violence is within specific communities that your average tourist or commuter or resident simply does not interact with

The spike is real. The consequences are real. The fear is manufactured

in chicago, very specifically, the stories were about the violent crimes in the areas where tourists and commuters absolutely did go

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:51

Apraxin: Feb 22, 2006; General-Admiral

oh wow, susan wild held on to pa-07, i was sure that was going to be one of the easiest gop pick-ups
https://twitter.com/tomozCali/status/1590534050221281280

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:52

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:32

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

Buschmaki posted:

Just a few months ago my brother was directly opposite of some dudes who shot at someone they knew in a car from their stoop, so I guess I can empathize with people who worry they or people they know will be randomly gunned down. Hell I guess I'm the target audience for ads like that since someone also broke into my apt. and stabbed him; but even saying that if I hear the words "Tough on Crime" from a politician or them talking about how they love the police they lose all goodwill I could ever hold for them but I dont expect 70 year old rich white people to understand that. Cant wait for the Dems to instead implement gun control that doesnt just leave insane fascists armed and address the root cause of most violent crime which is structural poverty 😎👍

I really feel the 'Tough on Crime' stance is less to appeal to people actually at risk for being crimed and much more for the suburban shitheads worried that roving gangs are going to descend on their pristine yard and kidnap their kids for pizza sex dungeons, or the urban landlord worried about their property values. Its a story that appeals to the perpetually cowardly who imagine themselves constantly under attack, so the actual incidence of crime is almost irrelevant to the impact of the rhetoric except in the most vague 'number go up' kind of way.

# ? Nov 10, 2022 04:57

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > the demokkkrats are going to be destrroyed in 2024 (inshallah)

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