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Stultus Maximus posted:It’s bound to be a factor but determining the extent will require real analysis over weeks and months. After all, Florida killed a lot of their base but the GOP is stronger than ever there. Even if covid did kill of a statistically significant chunk of the conservative base, how is that distributed? Losing a few swing voters in suburban Philly or Milwaukee matters a lot more electorally than losing 10% of your voters in +37 deep red rural Alabama.
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Nov 10, 2022 14:50
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psydude posted:Ok I'm just gonna come right out and ask it: is it possible that the GOP's decision to kill off a large portion of their voter base by promoting vaccine skepticism has contributed to a bunch of these competitive races going blue? It's not not a factor. Relative to other factors like gop internal divisions and especially the gop's war on women and, like, the peaceful transfer of power it's probably not one of the bigger factors this year. Still it's unquestionably a factor and when I did the math on it midway through the pandemic, the average person dying of covid was iirc 12x more likely to be a republican voter than a dem. That number might have ended up even more extreme as protection with boosters got better. The numbers there are actually pretty extreme because obviously covid deaths very heavily skew older and over 60s are traditionally about twice as likely to vote as younger people, this was all then compounded by older dems being vaccinated at incredibly high rates. It should go without saying that killing off your most dependable voters at a hugely disproportionate rate is an incredibly stupid strategy. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 14:52
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Stultus Maximus posted:It’s bound to be a factor but determining the extent will require real analysis over weeks and months. After all, Florida killed a lot of their base but the GOP is stronger than ever there. Florida has an olds replacement rate unmatchable by other snowbird states. It's almost like when people turn 60, a new range of hearing opens up, and people are beckoned by this new frequency to seek out warmth and Jimmy Buffett themed restaurants. Or maybe Florida has been advertising heavily on AM radio for the past decade. No one knows because no one under 60 listens to AM.
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Nov 10, 2022 14:57
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Someone posted a tiktok infographic a few months back that kind of explained it; covid deaths helped a bit, but the people in the age group that are dying of natural causes every year are like +30 R and the ones that are turning 18 and vote are +30 D, so barring a major realignment in the zoomer's politics it's just going to skew bit by bit more in the democrat's favor every year for a while.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:01
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its almost as though republicans have a reason for wanting to end representative democracy as a means for the united states to govern itself or something
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Nov 10, 2022 15:15
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Arven posted:Someone posted a tiktok infographic a few months back that kind of explained it; covid deaths helped a bit, but the people in the age group that are dying of natural causes every year are like +30 R and the ones that are turning 18 and vote are +30 D, so barring a major realignment in the zoomer's politics it's just going to skew bit by bit more in the democrat's favor every year for a while. vaccination rates are one of the single most partisan things in the entire country on top of everything else
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Nov 10, 2022 15:16
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Stultus Maximus posted:It’s bound to be a factor but determining the extent will require real analysis over weeks and months. After all, Florida killed a lot of their base but the GOP is stronger than ever there. FL is gerrymandered as gently caress with probably one of the worst in the country and the state democratic party ran a former republican and a cop to try to court republican voters instead of doing anything progressive or trying to actually help people. Running on "DESANTIS/RUBIO BAD" but then having nothing but republican plans/goals is not going to drive voters to the polls. A fuckton of democratic voters in Florida stayed home. Turnout was way low, in part, because there was really nothing on the ballot for most people. The house seats were fixed before the election began and they had the choice of a trump backed republican and a republican for governor.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:28
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Florida has an olds replacement rate unmatchable by other snowbird states. It's almost like when people turn 60, a new range of hearing opens up, and people are beckoned by this new frequency to seek out warmth and Jimmy Buffett themed restaurants. This is also true. Something like 200-300k people moved to Florida in the past few years and they're overwhelmingly republican while younger people are fleeing FL in droves, but not to the same extent.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:39
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Mr. Nice! posted:This is also true. Something like 200-300k people moved to Florida in the past few years and they're overwhelmingly republican while younger people are fleeing FL in droves, but not to the same extent. It seems that Texas also replaced their Covid dead GOP voters with people moving in. It also seems like they are being "pushed" into the country, all the GOP people I know moved out of the suburbs into the country. For all the "don't California my Texas" talk, you would think actual liberals were moving here and not Musk fanboys.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:47
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ASAPI posted:It seems that Texas also replaced their Covid dead GOP voters with people moving in. It also seems like they are being "pushed" into the country, all the GOP people I know moved out of the suburbs into the country. Liberals moving to Texas seem to be heavily concentrated in Dallas/Houston/Austin, so just further packing themselves into gerrymandered blue districts.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:51
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psydude posted:Liberals moving to Texas seem to be heavily concentrated in Dallas/Houston/Austin, so just further packing themselves into gerrymandered blue districts. They are spilling out of those districts now. My county is supposed to be very red/safe for the GOP. I believe that all the hard core supporters sold in my neighborhood during the bubble and are now pushed into more rural districts. Some of the local news stations were mentioning that it looks like some of the new districts were drawn wrong, creating tighter races than expected. There was no way the GOP would have been able to account for the housing bubble and how it changed demographics.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:59
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Didn't Beto win "native" Texans the last time he ran for Senate there?
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Nov 10, 2022 16:00
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psydude posted:Ok I'm just gonna come right out and ask it: is it possible that the GOP's decision to kill off a large portion of their voter base by promoting vaccine skepticism has contributed to a bunch of these competitive races going blue? Last thing I saw (probably very out of date now) was mostly putting it at deep red districts were slightly less deep red but not enough to actually matter. I'd be interested to see how it shakes out post-polling etc after this election is over though. I imagine it would have impacted a couple of specific elections but probably not huge shifts overall due to all of the other complications / confounding issues everyone else brought up.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:07
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Torrannor posted:Didn't Beto win "native" Texans the last time he ran for Senate there? That was said. I don't know if it is true or not. Polling in Texas is strange at best. I was very surprised that Uvalde county went hard red, they were sounding like they might flip but didn't. I guess the county had a "silent majority" that was fine with a school full of brown kids getting shot up.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:20
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Mainline democrats can hate AOC all they want but at least she's got a clear message fighting for something. Fetterman did well on that too, with with message and past history of action (plus he looks like every male outside the metro PA areas). DNC should really stop running ivory tower suits or some 2-3 time losers like Beto or Crist. I feel bad about Stacey Abrams, but she should have waited until Kemp's term limits ran out–overexposure as a loser probably makes voters lose enthusiasm for you.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:22
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AOC is running in a solidly blue district that will reliably pull the lever for whoever has a D next to their name. You can't even begin to compare that to having to win all of Pennsylvania, let alone Texas.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:27
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Arven posted:Someone posted a tiktok infographic a few months back that kind of explained it; covid deaths helped a bit, but the people in the age group that are dying of natural causes every year are like +30 R and the ones that are turning 18 and vote are +30 D, so barring a major realignment in the zoomer's politics it's just going to skew bit by bit more in the democrat's favor every year for a while. I don't believe it
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Nov 10, 2022 16:40
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Grip it and rip it posted:I don't believe it My anecdotal experience from this chuddy, rodeo loving california mountain town I've been stuck in the past 4 years has shown me the kids are just as chuddy and backwards as their fox news teat-sucking parents. But once again its that same ole urban/rural divide.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:24
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Echoing. I know plenty of well meaning STEM kids that got the brain worms. Religion and a familial community in their 60s.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:33
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Arrath posted:My anecdotal experience from this chuddy, rodeo loving california mountain town I've been stuck in the past 4 years has shown me the kids are just as chuddy and backwards as their fox news teat-sucking parents. But once again its that same ole urban/rural divide. SquirrelyPSU posted:Echoing. I know plenty of well meaning STEM kids that got the brain worms. Religion and a familial community in their 60s. your home town isn’t america
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Nov 10, 2022 18:13
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hypnophant posted:your home town isn’t america Well yeah I did preface it as anecdotal, didn't I.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:21
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Suicide Watch posted:overexposure as a loser probably makes voters lose enthusiasm for you. We can only hope this will eventually apply to 45.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:26
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Grip it and rip it posted:I don't believe it Yeah the kids are all based groyper incel nazis like rittenhouse
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Nov 10, 2022 18:38
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:Florida has an olds replacement rate unmatchable by other snowbird states. It's almost like when people turn 60, a new range of hearing opens up, and people are beckoned by this new frequency to seek out warmth and Jimmy Buffett themed restaurants. Jimmy buffet: actually NOT a chud btw. I know, weird as hell
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Nov 10, 2022 18:40
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Not surprising a man that committed to leisure and partying isn't a CHUD it would go against what he stands for (leisure and partying)
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Nov 10, 2022 18:48
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Milo and POTUS posted:Jimmy buffet: actually NOT a chud btw. I know, weird as hell Chuds co-opt non chud stuff all the time, so not too weird. Trump still unironically plays Fortunate Son at rallies. How many chuds didn’t know Rage Against the Machine was political?
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Nov 10, 2022 18:48
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Oxygenpoisoning posted:Chuds co-opt non chud stuff all the time, so not too weird. Trump still unironically plays Fortunate Son at rallies. How many chuds didn’t know Rage Against the Machine was political? you mean Paul Ryan's favorite band has songs against everything he stood for?
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Nov 10, 2022 18:53
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ASAPI posted:I was very surprised that Uvalde county went hard red, they were sounding like they might flip but didn't. I guess the county had a "silent majority" that was fine with a school full of brown kids getting shot up. Well yeah, they live in a country that was fine with a school full of brown kids getting shot up
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Nov 10, 2022 18:57
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Oxygenpoisoning posted:Chuds co-opt non chud stuff all the time, so not too weird. Trump still unironically plays Fortunate Son at rallies. How many chuds didn’t know Rage Against the Machine was political? Hell, he does this with YMCA, too.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:59
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Arrath posted:Well yeah I did preface it as anecdotal, didn't I. you did, but you posted it in response to someone saying they didn’t believe the statistic, and i wanted to point out why an anecdote doesn’t contradict a statistic
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Nov 10, 2022 19:04
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https://twitter.com/hilaryluros/status/1590743216001024001 Old Man Yells At Cloud. Plus, a good followup RT in the replies: https://twitter.com/dril/status/549425182767861760
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Nov 10, 2022 20:08
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noooooo Boebert up by 433 according to the latest numbers
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Nov 10, 2022 20:39
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hypnophant posted:your home town isn’t america Yes, a home town. Of which many of us have spent no time since we were 18.
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Nov 10, 2022 20:57
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McNally posted:noooooo How many more votes left to count?
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Nov 10, 2022 21:39
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Pine Cone Jones posted:How many more votes left to count? Google is saying 98% reporting, Boebert with 159,029 and Frisch with 158,235.
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Nov 10, 2022 21:46
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ASAPI posted:Google is saying 98% reporting, Boebert with 159,029 and Frisch with 158,235. Hopefully there are enough to tip it away from bobbert.
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Nov 10, 2022 21:48
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It’ll be a recount in any case.
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Nov 10, 2022 21:53
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I thought I saw earlier that the remaining votes are in regions which favor Frisch, but who knows at this point?
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Nov 10, 2022 21:56
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Herstory Begins Now posted:when I did the math on it midway through the pandemic, the average person dying of covid was iirc 12x more likely to be a republican voter than a dem. That number might have ended up even more extreme as protection with boosters got better. The ratio has gotten much less extreme. A recent article in CDC’s MMWR gives figures for the Omicron waves. “Vaccine effectiveness”, as the authors describe it, is way down. Now, I would argue that printing the figures they did without context is quite misleading. A large portion of the effect is not that the vaccinated are at more risk, but because the the unvaccinated are at less risk, having been immunized by infection. Whatever the mechanism, COVID is no longer killing one party’s voters anywhere near disproportionately as it once did.
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Nov 11, 2022 01:30
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Also vaccine uptake is way down across the board. A third of the US got any kind of Covid booster ever and last I looked <5% had gotten the Omicron booster. No one cares about Covid anymore, but half the population now hate vaccines.
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Nov 11, 2022 01:53
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