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Charlz Guybon posted:Woah... That's by far the worst estimate I've seen for Ukraine’s military casualties. Also a bit of a tonal shift from the US there (assuming Milley can be used to understand US policy) quote:He also said that signs Kyiv was willing to re-enter talks with Moscow offered "a window" for negotiations.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:54
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I dont think that comment was meant to be an accurate estimate.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:58
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https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericanAcademy/status/1590669122370555904 ... Is the prize given for advancing dictatorship via short-sighted self-interest as a prize named after Kissinger ought to be?
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Nov 10, 2022 15:58
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Charlz Guybon posted:Woah... That's by far the worst estimate I've seen for Ukraine’s military casualties. The exact quote is that “You are looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.” Not exactly official, and yeah, higher than any other estimate I've seen. However... the grinding stalemate really favored Russia's incredible advantage in artillery. That's when you were seeing Ukraine toss around numbers like 100-250 being killed daily. Until HIMARS disrupted their logistics, Ukraine had to make up the gap with blood.
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Nov 10, 2022 15:59
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I recall reading somewhere that Russia's WIA:KIA ratio was really bad due to challenges with recovering and providing adequate care for wounded, but I can't find a source for that offhand other than Trent Talenko, who I don't really believe. I can believe that Ukraine generally has more adequate field medical care for wounded, which would skew the relative ratios in favor of Ukraine.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:04
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Some U.S. and Western officials think neither side can win and see winter as a shot at diplomacy in Ukraine-Russia war I'd love to know what anonymous officials they're getting quotes from on this.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:05
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Ukraine's chief concrete advantage has always been manpower despite being 1/4th the size of Russia
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Nov 10, 2022 16:06
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Discendo Vox posted:Some U.S. and Western officials think neither side can win and see winter as a shot at diplomacy in Ukraine-Russia war Milley says as much in the thing I quoted
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Nov 10, 2022 16:06
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I don't see any side agreeing to anything because anything that does not see 1)Russia gain at least some of the territory it annexed, and 2) Ukraine liberate all of the territory it lost since 2014, will be treated as high treason in their respective countries, meaning the conflict essentially has existential stakes.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:09
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FishBulbia posted:Milley says as much in the thing I quoted nah those are different sources of the same line, there's no reason you'd call someone openly saying something at a public event an unnamed official with knowledge of the situation or w/e euphemism they used.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:12
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Kherson territory is falling under UA control rapidly at the moment it seems. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1590720526364053508 https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1590720613903380485 https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1590717061441130496 UA troops advancing beyond Mylove and Novye Kairi is significant since that puts the crossing at Nova Kachovka under fire control, so it seems unlikely Russia would let this happen if the retreat was a feint.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:13
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Yeah Kherson is definitely a withdrawal, it just looks like a weird one because Russia is so limited by the routes out of Kherson. Everything we're seeing out of Kherson looks like what you'd expect from a painfully gradual, albeit also urgent withdrawal. Not long ago there were as many as 30,000 Russian troops and associated materiel in kherson and the evacuation is primarily being conducted by a half dozen or so barges ferrying people back and forth
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Nov 10, 2022 16:16
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Herstory Begins Now posted:nah those are different sources of the same line, there's no reason you'd call someone openly saying something at a public event an unnamed official with knowledge of the situation or w/e euphemism they used. I'm not saying he's literally the source, but that view is clearly being pushed by the biden admin right now, or at least his military advisors. "But speaking in New York, Gen Milley added that for any talks to be successful, both Russia and Ukraine would have to reach a "mutual recognition" that a wartime victory "is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means". The top general - who serves as President Joe Biden's most senior military adviser - said the scale of the casualties could convince both Moscow and Kyiv of the need to negotiate over the coming winter months, when fighting may slow due to freezing conditions."
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Nov 10, 2022 16:17
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FishBulbia posted:I'm not saying he's literally the source, but that view is clearly being pushed by the biden admin right now, or at least his military advisors. ? It's not being pushed by the biden admin, it's being pushed by milley at a private speaking engagement and one or two unnamed defense officials (and not from one of the pentagon's background briefings). Biden's messaging wrt negotiations has been much more straight forward, though who knows maybe we're seeing a change there, but I'm not buying that as the messaging until at least one person goes on the record saying that tbh it feels like a message that was prepared for what a lot of people thought the political realities would be this week instead of what the political realities are this week Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 16:20
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It appears likely that someone is trying to sell the river as a new "natural" boundary between Russia's annexations and Ukraine.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:21
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I'm seeing a lot of articles citing General Mark Milley recently but I can't find the original conference (he was at The Economic Club of New York on Wednesday). Some floating quotes I've seen: quote:Ukraine and Russia should reach "mutual understanding ”that a victory“ probably cannot be achieved by military means, and it is therefore necessary to try other paths." from: https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/the-chief-of-staff-uses-milley-the-withdrawal-of-russian-forces-from-kherson-may-open-a-dialogue-box/ One more interesting one which directly answers a question I had earlier in the thread: quote:Speaking at an event in New York, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley, estimated Russia had up to 30,000 troops north of the Dnipro in that area. “This is going to take them days and perhaps even weeks to pull those forces south of that river,” he said. from: https://www.ft.com/content/396db8b9-87c3-4b31-8b78-3c14ffcba3a7 That's going to be a lot of opportunity for Ukrainians to do damage.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:30
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WarpedLichen posted:I'm seeing a lot of articles citing General Mark Milley recently but I can't find the original conference (he was at The Economic Club of New York on Wednesday). Here's the event, top item: https://www.econclubny.org/web/pages/news-media Looks like it'll be potentially possible to snag a copy of the video in a week, if someone from the club leaks it. The Agenzianova article is quoting him on CNN, but especially given other inaccuracies, it appears likely to be misattributing a CNN article, here, which is also quoting the Economic Club talk. "dialogue box" appears to be a garbled "window of opportunity", for instance. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 16:34
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FishBulbia posted:Also a bit of a tonal shift from the US there (assuming Milley can be used to understand US policy)
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Nov 10, 2022 16:50
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Discendo Vox posted:It appears likely that someone is trying to sell the river as a new "natural" boundary between Russia's annexations and Ukraine. Which makes a certain amount of sense except that with kherson taken all of Crimea is going to be in HIMARs range.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:50
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The exact quote is that “You are looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.” It's obviously been policy to mostly keep mum about Ukrainian casualties, especially how they compare to Russian ones. So if it gets debated now, it's probably part of the push to start negotiations.
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Nov 10, 2022 16:53
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Herstory Begins Now posted:tbh it feels like a message that was prepared for what a lot of people thought the political realities would be this week instead of what the political realities are this week World politics does not revolve around 4 seats in the US senate, sorry. This is egomania. I highly doubt the midterm is center to US military planning.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:01
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It's easy to be part of the Russian propaganda machine when things are going your way, but the more obvious the farce becomes the worse it gets. This is amazing: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1590729203485356034
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Nov 10, 2022 17:03
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Chalks posted:It's easy to be part of the Russian propaganda machine when things are going your way, but the more obvious the farce becomes the worse it gets. This is amazing: It's actually now illegal to celebrate or propose the surrender of Kherson AND to criticize the Russian Army for surrendering Kherson. "They did a great job defending Russian territory by wisely withdrawing from Kherson in order to keep Kherson"
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Nov 10, 2022 17:06
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FishBulbia posted:World politics does not revolve around 4 seats in the US senate, sorry. This is egomania. I highly doubt the midterm is center to US military planning. world politics certainly doesn't but american messaging 100% does and you are the one suggesting that this is a messaging effort
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Nov 10, 2022 17:06
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Herstory Begins Now posted:world politics certainly doesn't but american messaging 100% does and you are the one suggesting that this is a messaging effort Republicans still by and large support Ukraine. It had barely anything to do with the midterm. Republicans have 50 seats instead of 54! Quick! Scrap all messaging about negotiations! Egomania. If you need to believe your vote saved the free world to go vote, whatever (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 17:08
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In one week we went from the soon-to-be house majority leader saying that aid to Ukraine will end under his watch (and what they expected to be a 20+ seat majority) to Kellyanne Conway talking about how America first now includes support for Ukraine and Russia out of Ukraine. Your comment about the senate has no bearing either: senate support for Ukraine has never been in question, it's been heavily bipartisan and overwhelming since day one and that has not changed. FishBulbia posted:Egomania. If you need to believe your vote saved the free world to go vote, whatever 
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Nov 10, 2022 17:18
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Herstory Begins Now posted:In one week we went from future house majority leader saying that aid to Ukraine will end under his watch (and what they expected to be a 20+ seat majority) to kellyanne conway talking about how america first now includes support for Ukraine. It's a shame the US military is apparently slow to get the memo and still lying then
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Nov 10, 2022 17:20
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idk what you're on about at this point but I'd be very surprised if Milley's remarks were prepared day of his speaking engagement.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:25
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Things seem to be happening reeeallly quick in Kherson region today. ZSU definitely on the move and lots of new towns confirmed liberated. Going to be interesting to see how hard they will be able to press the Russians over the coming days and if they are able to pocket or capture any large groups of them or if they just play it safe and just let them go with just some artillery harassment at the river crossings.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:26
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FishBulbia posted:It's a shame the US military is apparently slow to get the memo and still lying then Enough of this. Ah oh well, that’s an unfortunate edit.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:26
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This withdrawal from Kherson has been the goal from the start, where Ukraine hits the logistics of the occupation troops and they have to choose between complete collapse or withdrawal. If you told us Ukraine would take Kherson without a fight in August then we'd be ecstatic. Now both sides race to increase their capabilities over the winter and prep for a fight in the spring.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:29
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The recent calculation from public budget figures on payments to the families of deceased soldiers showed 16k dead for Russia. That number is probably the floor. https://t.me/mozhemobyasnit/14009 Considering the widespread unspoken policy on being stingy with payments/keeping status as MIA as long as possible and presuming 1:3 or 1:4 killed to wounded ratio, real number of combined killed+wounded aligns closely with figures called by US (100k)
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Nov 10, 2022 17:39
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Morrow posted:This withdrawal from Kherson has been the goal from the start, where Ukraine hits the logistics of the occupation troops and they have to choose between complete collapse or withdrawal. If you told us Ukraine would take Kherson without a fight in August then we'd be ecstatic. Yeah, I think a Russian withdrawal would minimize damage to the civilian infrastructure and is easily the best possible outcome here.
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Nov 10, 2022 17:40
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The exact quote is that “You are looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” Milley said in remarks at the Economic Club of New York. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side.” The casualties among TDF were also really high in the early days. Back when Russia was trying to encircle Kharkiv, the line in large areas was held by entirely green TDF, basically just volunteers with no training who got handed rifles. I know someone from the area who says that the first few weeks were just really bloody for the defenders. For a long time, Ukraine citied "military deaths" and pointedly avoided questions on whether this covered just the regulars, or also the national guard, or also ad-hoc TDF. Until they had actually trained troops holding everywhere, I don't think the exchanges in lives favored them.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:01
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Chalks posted:It's easy to be part of the Russian propaganda machine when things are going your way, but the more obvious the farce becomes the worse it gets. This is amazing: That's some catch, that catch-22. I imagine watching this would be much more disheartening than hearing spin in either direction, is the intention to stifle discussion of the war?
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Nov 10, 2022 18:12
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:You are being exposed to propaganda from Ukraine. I don't mean this in a negative way, you just have to recognize it as such. Ukraine has killed a fair number of BTG commanders, a few brigade commanders, and like one or two divisional guys. You also tend to kill the least competent of your opponents - the guys that sit still for days/weeks, that use the radio too much, that have predictable patterns, that don't disperse or effectively locate their CPs, etc. You're not hearing about all the CPs that aren't getting hit. This is never how reality works. A dead commander isn't inherently an incompetent commander, and the replacement isn't inherently a more competent commander.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:18
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Your comment about the senate has no bearing either: senate support for Ukraine has never been in question, it's been heavily bipartisan and overwhelming since day one and that has not changed. Not that the midterms will have any overall impact on this, but I do wonder if the Senate GOP isn't about to induct a few more... Ukraine-skeptical members. JD Vance saying he didn't really care about what happened in Ukraine one way or another some time back springs to mind.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:23
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JD Vance has been playing a Trumper, it won't surprise me if he decides to play someone else later.WarpedLichen posted:Yeah, I think a Russian withdrawal would minimize damage to the civilian infrastructure and is easily the best possible outcome here. There are reports that they blew up a bunch of civilian heat/electricity infrastructure while withdrawing https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/11/10/7375822/
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Nov 10, 2022 18:25
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Kchama posted:This is never how reality works. A dead commander isn't inherently an incompetent commander, and the replacement isn't inherently a more competent commander. On balance, in combat, churning commanders is going to drive better results.
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Nov 10, 2022 18:52
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:On balance, in combat, churning commanders is going to drive better results. What. That is not how this works at all.
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Nov 10, 2022 19:00
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