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How much longer is Twitter going to last?
A few weeks
A few months
A few years
About as long as the rest of humanity
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Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Levitate posted:

I can't imagine his ego will allow him to do that

This. Musk is way too high on his own supply to just take a loss or admit he's not the superior ~*disruptive*~ brain genius he's been fronting as all these years.

ImpAtom posted:

I think it is genuinely amazing to watch something that was a part of everyday life used by a tremendous amount of people both average and influential appear to collapse into irrelevance almost overnight. It isn't gone yet but it feels weird to just picture tweets going away.

Not bad mind you. Just weird.

"Once upon a time there was this giant communications platform that basically everyone in the developed world used and a huge amount of everyone else did too, but then this one rich rear end in a top hat ruined it for everyone in the space of like a week because some nerds made fun of him on the internet."

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Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

Silly Burrito posted:

Does Jeffrey want to buy Twitter?

Goon project: run Twitter

I really think we can do it there's a lot of smart people here.

Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Nov 11, 2022

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



davecrazy posted:

In a sane world all Twitter employed would go on strike.

They can organize and make demands.

But we live in a dystopian hellscape.

I think Aguirre's raft has sailed a little too far down the river for that mutiny to accomplish much.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Willo567 posted:

So when Twitter is gone, is there a similar platform people will flock to?

There's nothing that really works the same way Twitter does right now, but all the other social media platforms are seeing blood in the water, so they might roll out some new stuff aimed at picking up Twitter refugees.

Mastodon is the closest thing, as a Twitter clone made by open source meganerds. But as you'd expect from an open-source Twitter clone, it's got a lot of UI and usability oddities that make it a pain in the rear end to use and scare off the non-computery types.

Cohost is a rising platform I've heard a lot of good things about, but it's more like Tumblr than like Twitter, and it doesn't even have an app yet.

Even Tumblr is getting in on the feeding frenzy and dunking on Twitter. They recently rolled back the anti-porn rules that drove everyone off, and they just launched a subscription service that'll give you two blue checkmarks for $8/mo, and you can subscribe more than once to increase the checkmarks for two each time.

Willo567 posted:

Well that loving sucks. Couldn't it limp on like MySpace and LiveJournal are doing?

It could, but Musk is wrecking it at a frankly incredible pace. Highly-paid execs are jumping ship like rats fleeing a sinking ship, advertisers are keeping their distance, and the FTC will bankrupt Twitter with fees if Musk violates the consent decree. If Musk was quietly just tinkering in the margins while letting things run as they are, Twitter could hold on for ages, but he's actively wrecking everything.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Harold Fjord posted:

Goon project: run Twitter

I really think we can do it there's a lot of smart people here.

I'm pretty sure that one of the layoff waves resulted in SA actually having more moderators than Twitter does now.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Main Paineframe posted:

It could, but Musk is wrecking it at a frankly incredible pace. Highly-paid execs are jumping ship like rats fleeing a sinking ship, advertisers are keeping their distance, and the FTC will bankrupt Twitter with fees if Musk violates the consent decree.

I am sure he already has violated it.


Where does FTC fines come in bankruptcy lists? Does it come before secured creditors?

Shrecknet
Jan 2, 2005


Main Paineframe posted:

Even Tumblr is getting in on the feeding frenzy and dunking on Twitter. They recently rolled back the anti-porn rules that drove everyone off, and they just launched a subscription service that'll give you two blue checkmarks for $8/mo, and you can subscribe more than once to increase the checkmarks for two each time.
:eng101: It's actually only a 1-time $8 fee to get double blue checks!

Tumblr is doing so much fun stuff right now between the digital version of firing a gun into the ground at night to keep property values down and their recent "Blaze Post" tool, which let you give your post additional impressions (like an ad) but totally untargeted so people are now like "just spent :10bux: to make 4,000 look at my cat :catte:"

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Epic High Five posted:

I'm pretty sure that one of the layoff waves resulted in SA actually having more moderators than Twitter does now.

It was when they locked almost everyone out of the mod tools prior to the layoffs, supposedly in fear of "insider risks" (i.e., Elon doesn't trust the employees).

https://twitter.com/jackiedavalos1/status/1587260948938719232

It's possible that more than 15 people survived the layoffs and were let back into the mod tools. But now that the Head of Trust and Safety (i.e., Twitter's head mod) has quit, who knows?

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

haveblue posted:

No. There is nothing else that can fill the role twitter does right now, which is a big reason why it hasn't fully imploded yet. There are some things that will probably get there eventually, like Mastodon, but if Musk burns the whole place down overnight an enormous number of communities, social connections, media networks, etc will just irreparably evaporate.

I'm a linguist whose current research projects use Twitter as a corpus and I am desperately trying to scrape language data because if Twitter implodes I am hosed.

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

Tuxedo Gin posted:

I'm a linguist whose current research projects use Twitter as a corpus and I am desperately trying to scrape language data because if Twitter implodes I am hosed.

:rip:

I wonder how many PhD programs Elon managed to derail?

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Rappaport posted:

:rip:

I wonder how many PhD programs Elon managed to derail?

And how many PhD programs Elon has just inspired?

Chieves
Sep 20, 2010

nine-gear crow posted:

And how many PhD programs Elon has just inspired?

MBA professors are absolutely salivating right now.

E: Oh wait, you were referring to actual academics :v:

Shrecknet
Jan 2, 2005


https://twitter.com/SeanTheBluSheep/status/1590839212764717057

it's gonna be so weird when tumblr comes out of this on top

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!

Captain_Maclaine posted:

This. Musk is way too high on his own supply to just take a loss or admit he's not the superior ~*disruptive*~ brain genius he's been fronting as all these years.
It's gonna be 100% Eddie Lampert style "I did everything I could to transform the company but it was just too dysfunctional to survive in a tough market."

Main Paineframe posted:

Mastodon is the closest thing, as a Twitter clone made by open source meganerds. But as you'd expect from an open-source Twitter clone, it's got a lot of UI and usability oddities that make it a pain in the rear end to use and scare off the non-computery types.

Cohost is a rising platform I've heard a lot of good things about, but it's more like Tumblr than like Twitter, and it doesn't even have an app yet.

Even Tumblr is getting in on the feeding frenzy and dunking on Twitter. They recently rolled back the anti-porn rules that drove everyone off, and they just launched a subscription service that'll give you two blue checkmarks for $8/mo, and you can subscribe more than once to increase the checkmarks for two each time.
Mastodon is hobbled by the usual bullshit of thinking anyone will accept a second-rate experience because of FOSS ideals and is already getting crushed by load.

Cohost is fine but doesn't seem like it has a viable business model.

Tumblr's fine from a technical standpoint (except for not being able to figure out where a reblog originally came from which is dumb as hell) but it really caters to a specific type of content and user.

At this point the next-closest thing is Facebook, as terrible as that is, so the real answer is probably going to be whatever the mass staff exodus from Twitter cooks up when they get some VC bucks.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

OneEightHundred posted:

It's gonna be 100% Eddie Lampert style "I did everything I could to transform the company but it was just too dysfunctional to survive in a tough market."

He's going to blame Liberals/The Woke Left/Activists, claim to be a victim and become more radicalized.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
Jeffrey should be running ads for SA right now, drinking that milkshake.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Guess what day it is today....
https://twitter.com/faineg/status/1590891989033025536?s=20&t=-zW0GA-4BrBTdXe1_Xh7gw
Probably fitting that the Ghost of Lowtax is taking down Twitter.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Discendo Vox posted:

Jeffrey should be running ads for SA right now, drinking that milkshake.

:sickos:

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Young Freud posted:

Guess what day it is today....
https://twitter.com/faineg/status/1590891989033025536?s=20&t=-zW0GA-4BrBTdXe1_Xh7gw
Probably fitting that the Ghost of Lowtax is taking down Twitter.

I had a conversation with a goon friend about this earlier this week. "It's ironic that literally a year after Lowtax repainted his ceiling with his brains we would be blessed by an internet comedy meltdown that Lowtax would have made amazing hay out of." Like gently caress Lowtax, the utter piece of poo poo that he was, but still...

There's a phrase I'm often reminded of, "I'm not afraid to die, I'm sad that I won't be able to see what happens next." This week was one of those "what happens next" weeks.

Star Man
Jun 1, 2008

There's a star maaaaaan
Over the rainbow
I'm convinced that Elon Musk is destroying Twitter on purpose. Like I can't even believe that he's just that colossally stupid to nuke a company that he just bought from orbit out of incompetence.

Clarste
Apr 15, 2013

Just how many mistakes have you suffered on the way here?

An uncountable number, to be sure.
You have to remember that he's also desperate because he just lost billions of dollars on this. I can imagine him making even stupider decisions if he feels he has to change things immediately or lose all his money very quickly.

Star Man
Jun 1, 2008

There's a star maaaaaan
Over the rainbow
No, I really think he spent forty-four billion dollars, regardless of whose money it was, into burning Twitter to the ground out of his own volition. It's just so catastrophic that it has to be with intent.

I have no evidence for this and am completely pulling it out of my rear end, but god drat it just feels like it makes more sense than it being out of sheer stupidity.

Space Cadet Omoly
Jan 15, 2014

~Groovy~


Star Man posted:

I'm convinced that Elon Musk is destroying Twitter on purpose. Like I can't even believe that he's just that colossally stupid to nuke a company that he just bought from orbit out of incompetence.

No, he really is that stupid.

Look into his history even slightly and you'll see "Oh wow so this guy is just hella dumb".

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

OneEightHundred posted:

Mastodon is hobbled by the usual bullshit of thinking anyone will accept a second-rate experience because of FOSS ideals and is already getting crushed by load.

Despite working with computer poo poo my career these kind of things like "find a server that works for you and you like!" always feels like just a step I can't be assed to take. I get the idea, but putting it upon the masses to chose what server they want to join is never really gonna work. Everyone will join the same thing or just be put off by it.

poo poo I don't think I ever let Dalnet back in the IRC days

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Star Man posted:

No, I really think he spent forty-four billion dollars, regardless of whose money it was, into burning Twitter to the ground out of his own volition. It's just so catastrophic that it has to be with intent.

I have no evidence for this and am completely pulling it out of my rear end, but god drat it just feels like it makes more sense than it being out of sheer stupidity.

It seems about as erratic and chaotic as when he started a car company and decided to revolutionize manufacturing with his Alien Dreadnaugh factory and lost a few billion on it. The difference is Twitter doesn't have the finances for leadership to go through a learning curve, regulators have a lot less tolerance for social media companies than car companies and the age of infinite free cash is coming to an end.

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

Owling Howl posted:

It seems about as erratic and chaotic as when he started a car company and decided to revolutionize manufacturing with his Alien Dreadnaugh factory and lost a few billion on it. The difference is Twitter doesn't have the finances for leadership to go through a learning curve, regulators have a lot less tolerance for social media companies than car companies and the age of infinite free cash is coming to an end.

also twitter isn't public now so there's no stock price going up up up and it doesn't have a real product to sell either like Tesla

Communist Zombie
Nov 1, 2011
It just keeps getting better and better...

https://www.platformer.news/p/inside-the-twitter-meltdown posted:

One of Musk’s other ideas, discussed during his Spaces event Wednesday, was to turn Twitter into a payments company.

“Now we can say like, OK, you’ve got a balance on your account, do you want to send money to someone else within Twitter?” Musk said, as transcribed by CNBC. “And maybe we pre-populate their account with and say, OK, we’re gonna give you 10 bucks, and you can send it anywhere within Twitter.”

The company has been working to make that a reality. On Nov. 4 the company named Esther Crawford, who has been leading the rollout of the new Blue, CEO of Twitter Payments, according to a screenshot viewed by Platformer. The company is currently seeking a money transmitter license in Washington, according to the message.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
If he wanted to destroy twitter, he could have just fired 100% of the staff and had the last guy hit the off switch on the way out. There was nothing intentional about this other than his failure to realize the degree and speed with which his ideas weren’t working

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013

Communist Zombie posted:

It just keeps getting better and better...

So he's come full circle on his entire career: just make PayPal again. Appropriate, seeing as how it was the only thing he actually made himself (and his actual role in it is debatable between how much of it was Peter Thiel and the rest of their team's work), so of course he'd default to that.

E: A quick Wikipedia dive tells me that Musk did not in fact have anything to do with the creation of PayPal, he merged his lovely e-bank, X.com (which he also didn't create, but merely funded with his blood emerald money and claimed ownership of) with PayPal at Thiel's urging. Musk and Thiel are the only ones anyone remembers because they're massive ego'd assholes.

nine-gear crow fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Nov 11, 2022

Clarste
Apr 15, 2013

Just how many mistakes have you suffered on the way here?

An uncountable number, to be sure.
Although I do like the idea of giving everyone on Twitter 10 bucks so he goes broke that much faster.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
The "Official" checks are back. :lol:

Levitate posted:

Despite working with computer poo poo my career these kind of things like "find a server that works for you and you like!" always feels like just a step I can't be assed to take. I get the idea, but putting it upon the masses to chose what server they want to join is never really gonna work. Everyone will join the same thing or just be put off by it.

poo poo I don't think I ever let Dalnet back in the IRC days
I mean DalNet's key insight was people want to keep their handle consistently, so the lesson from there to Mastodon should be get some sort of centralized identity SSO or gently caress off, but the second layer of that problem is that letting any rando run their own instance would make any SSO system severely vulnerable to malicious instances redirecting to fake login pages.

Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




Honestly I wonder if Musk is intentionally trying to sabotage Twitter at this point.

No matter what, a year from Twitter being a smoking heap in the fire pit, he'll pretend he did it all intentionally and he's a puppetmaster.

shimmy shimmy
Nov 13, 2020

Nelson Mandingo posted:

Honestly I wonder if Musk is intentionally trying to sabotage Twitter at this point.

No matter what, a year from Twitter being a smoking heap in the fire pit, he'll pretend he did it all intentionally and he's a puppetmaster.

Yeah, but where would he even post about it? Without Twitter all posting is just tears in rain.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010
https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1590872869348978688

Are we sure Musk ever worked at PayPal?


quote:

Elon Musk spoke about offering banking services via Twitter:

"I think there’s this transformative opportunity in payments. And payments really are just the exchange of information. From an information standpoint, not a huge difference between, say, just sending a direct message and sending a payment. They are basically the same thing. In principle, you can use a direct messaging stack for payments. And so that’s definitely a direction we’re going to go in, enabling people on Twitter to able to send money anywhere in the world instantly and in real-time. We just want to make it as useful as possible."

And later offered more detail:

"If you can simply have one balance on Twitter that can simply go positive or a negative, and when it goes positive, the interest rate is better than what you could receive elsewhere, and when it goes negative, the interest rate is lower than what you see elsewhere, now you have a much simpler system.

Then you attach a debit card to the Twitter account so that you have backwards compatibility into the payments system because not everyone will accept Twitter. So if have above a certain balance, you automatically send people a debit card. You want backwards compatibility to the existing financial infrastructure.

In the U.S., there’s still a small number of checks that are used. So if your landlord is demanding that you send a check, you have to have some non-zero number of checks. Then we would send a small number of checks to those that need to have checks. Then you add automatic payment. Then over time, you basically address what are all the things that you’d want from finance standpoint. And if you address all things that you want from a finance standpoint, then we will be the people’s financial institution."

Because it really doesn't look like this guy knows the first thing about payment processing. Comparing payments to DMs, and daydreaming about sending people paper checks instead of talking about security or fraud prevention? I know he got thrown out of Paypal a long time ago now, but there is no practical thinking at all going on there. It's all dreams, no substance.

The whole transcript is too long to quote the whole thing, but there's an absolute ton of ridiculous quotes in it. He's all ideas.

quote:

I think Twitter can perform an incredibly valuable service to the world and be the public town square where people exchange ideas and where once in a while, they change their mind. And where you have a battleground of ideas that can hopefully take the place of the violence in a lot of cases. So people can just be talking instead of physically fighting. I think we could actually be a force for peace, which would be amazing. I think there’s a tremendous amount of good that Twitter can can achieve for humanity. And that’s what we’re going to strive for.

So in order for us to achieve that good, how do we get a lot of people on the platform? There are 8 billion humans. If we don’t have at least a billion humans on the system, then we have a very small percentage of humans. So we want to have, you know, a reasonable percentage of humans. This is not for the sake of of money or anything like that. It’s just in order to do a lot of good, we need a lot of people on the platform and a lot of people talking.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

It isn't about making money but I really want at least 25% of that one billion to pay me $8/month for a emoji.

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Owling Howl posted:

It seems about as erratic and chaotic as when he started a car company and decided to revolutionize manufacturing with his Alien Dreadnaugh factory and lost a few billion on it. The difference is Twitter doesn't have the finances for leadership to go through a learning curve, regulators have a lot less tolerance for social media companies than car companies and the age of infinite free cash is coming to an end.

Musk never started a car company. Tesla was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning in 2003. A year later, Musk came in with a big investment which scored him a controlling share in the company and later memory-holed them both when he took over as CEO in 2008.

See Also:


nine-gear crow posted:

E: A quick Wikipedia dive tells me that Musk did not in fact have anything to do with the creation of PayPal, he merged his lovely e-bank, X.com (which he also didn't create, but merely funded with his blood emerald money and claimed ownership of) with PayPal at Thiel's urging. Musk and Thiel are the only ones anyone remembers because they're massive ego'd assholes.

nine-gear crow
Aug 10, 2013
Elon Musk has literally payed various exorbitant amounts of money to convince people he's invented various things and/or founded various companies when all he's really done his entire life is just pay money to associate his name with increasingly more profitable business ventures... and Twitter.

That is literally his only life skill: spending money he was already born with on things.

OneEightHundred
Feb 28, 2008

Soon, we will be unstoppable!
Tesla's big insight was also that the way to make it all work was to sell it as a luxury product to rich assholes because that's where all the money is.

His biggest actual contribution was SpaceX, which is basically offsetting its actual productive contributions with setting up lower earth orbit to be an unusable debris cloud.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

nine-gear crow posted:

And how many PhD programs Elon has just inspired?

pffff lowtax has launched way more phDs than birdsite.

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PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010
double posting, Musk also bought his SpaceX "founder" title.

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