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War in Ukraine: a run on the banks
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Nov 11, 2022 02:58
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Fall Dog posted:Dumbkirk Aww, we just had a thread title change.
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Nov 11, 2022 02:59
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The bottleneck that are the evacuation points is going to cause a massacre https://twitter.com/Etern8tyOSINT/status/1590768639736967168 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1590837958835597312 https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1590843978919792640 https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1590843434579132428
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Nov 11, 2022 03:04
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mllaneza posted:Aww, we just had a thread title change.  Uhhh have a video from a retreating russian - watch till the end for the last command he was given https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590831220853977089?s=20&t=R_Z_PdRL4CsF-sPovzjLjg
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Nov 11, 2022 03:05
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Nov 11, 2022 03:22
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Maybe they actually had planned to do all 'Ukraine rushes into Kherson, but hahah! We have an ambush ready' And when Ukraine didn't take the bait and just moved to carefully advance and make sure to cut everything off they went 'oh, oops'?
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Nov 11, 2022 03:24
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I’m looking forward to retracting my statement that the Russians are getting less dumb but I don’t think we’re quite there yet. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 11, 2022 03:25
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Shogeton posted:Maybe they actually had planned to do all 'Ukraine rushes into Kherson, but hahah! We have an ambush ready' And when Ukraine didn't take the bait and just moved to carefully advance and make sure to cut everything off they went 'oh, oops'? Kherson has been cut off for months from the perspective of being able to rapidly get large units out safely or otherwise. Good osint roundup of the state of bridges and crossings in the region https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7Bg_3-UVyI
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Nov 11, 2022 03:30
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The only reason I would not trust the 18k number is because I doubt even the Russians know how mamlny men they have on the right bank.
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Nov 11, 2022 05:41
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Wow, this is not what I expected to read when opening this thread today. Go Ukraine, hell yeah.
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Nov 11, 2022 06:24
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That is god drat terrifying
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Nov 11, 2022 06:46
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oilatsnep posted:That is god drat terrifying The probable 20K Russian troops stuck on the wrong sie of the river is probably being utterly shredded. gently caress Putin for getting so many people killed for nothing
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Nov 11, 2022 07:15
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i'll stick with cautious pessimism until the picture is clearer, but if the rumors are true ukraine is looking at dealing an order of magnitude more pows than they've had to handle previously, right?oilatsnep posted:That is god drat terrifying it's deranged that not only did our species manage to dream up something so hideous, but we actually use them against each other what a pointless, stupid war
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Nov 11, 2022 07:19
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'll stick with cautious pessimism until the picture is clearer, but if the rumors are true ukraine is looking at dealing an order of magnitude more pows than they've had to handle previously, right? Eh, it's always been poo poo. It's just better filmed . It would't really be that different than being on the receiving end of a ww1 barrage. And I wouldn't be surprised if some seriously hosed up poo poo will start leaking on twitter from the russian side. I like seeing high tech go FOOM as any other dumb goon but I won't be watching THAT.
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Nov 11, 2022 07:47
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It'll be interesting to hear the real picture behind this some day (hopefully sooner rather than later). Is it just sheer Russian incompetence to broadcast an evacuation without your troops knowing and causing panic? A completely successful evacuation Ukraine is playing up for propaganda? Or some combination of the two where the majority of Russian forces have evacuated while some blocking forces weren't told and just hung out to dry? Any other army and I would rule out the first immediately but you really never know with this war.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:03
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How did Ukraine end up with some many casualties? Don't they have an enormous advantage since they're defending? In the early months their Territorial troops were learning things the hard way and getting mauled, and they have been on the offensive since at least August. I would say it is a fair assessment that their casualties (KIA/WIA) are not that far off from actual Russian ones. However, I do not know of most reports include LPR and DPR casualties with the Russian. In regards to POWs, has Ukraine or Russia released any numbers? If Russians have been surrendering or being captured in any large numbers one would think it prudent for them to release those numbers for moral and propaganda purposes.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:10
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Didn't the Russian army move a lot of its equipment a few months ago in Kherson before the September UA counter-offensive started?
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Nov 11, 2022 08:15
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They were moving equipment into Kherson through most of the summer and fall. In the last month they've been moving mobiks in and, we think, rotating out some, albeit notably not all, of their better units out. Their defenses around Kherson never collapsed that the way that they would have without any of their good forces left so while there's almost definitely been a withdrawal happening for some time, it definitely was limited in its scope.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:28
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Herstory Begins Now posted:They were moving equipment into Kherson through most of the summer and fall. In the last month they've been moving mobiks in and, we think, rotating out some, albeit notably not all, of their better units out. Their defenses around Kherson never collapsed that the way that they would have without any of their good forces left so while there's almost definitely been a withdrawal happening for some time, it definitely was limited in its scope. This was probably the plan all along. Rotate out the high quality troops they have left, rotate in some conscripts that will be sacrificed to ensure the escape of the former.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:32
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Charlz Guybon posted:The bottleneck that are the evacuation points is going to cause a massacre Jesus Christ. I counted 36 missiles from the truck right next to the camera. That’s loving crazy. Do all those 36 missiles have different GPS coordinates or are they supposed to mash the same exact location? Henrik Zetterberg fucked around with this message at 08:49 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 08:46
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Those are dumb fire rockets, there is no guidance on them.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:53
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Yes, depending on a few factors your accuracy usually consists of this or that grid square.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:54
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:Jesus Christ. I counted 36 missiles from the truck right next to the camera. That’s loving crazy. They are borderline dunbfire rockets with rudimentary guidance and a gently caress off huge warhead. The difference between a Grad an a MLRS is, with a Grad, aiming is pointless because you are blowing up the entire grid on the targeting map, so to speak.
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Nov 11, 2022 08:57
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Yeah if those are grads IIRC a full salvo of 40 rockets will generally fall within like a 100 x 100m square. Dunno if that increases beyond a certain distance? But it's why they point multiple at the same target and fire them all at the same time, greater coverage to compensate for unguided
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Nov 11, 2022 08:58
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They were designed for a world where we were expecting Soviets to need to shell tens of thousands of NATO troops in the Fulda gap or whatever. Just deleting divisions en masse like you would expect from that video. And through a totally hosed up twist of historical fate, looks like they're getting a chance to shine, on their own creators. Sad stuff.
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Nov 11, 2022 09:01
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1590981355017367552 Here a good candidate for the morning Ukraine picture  By the way, there are a few posts saying that MRLS footage is old and misattributed. Not that it matters too much since I'm sure it's illustrative of what's been happening.
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Nov 11, 2022 09:22
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1590988573896867840?t=LCVSBfKC8l5WirVslZS-8A&s=19
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Nov 11, 2022 09:47
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Dick Ripple posted:In the early months their Territorial troops were learning things the hard way and getting mauled, and they have been on the offensive since at least August. I would say it is a fair assessment that their casualties (KIA/WIA) are not that far off from actual Russian ones. However, I do not know of most reports include LPR and DPR casualties with the Russian. In regards to POWs, has Ukraine or Russia released any numbers? If Russians have been surrendering or being captured in any large numbers one would think it prudent for them to release those numbers for moral and propaganda purposes. Pretty much only Russian reports try to pretend that they are separate entities here. boofhead posted:Yeah if those are grads IIRC a full salvo of 40 rockets will generally fall within like a 100 x 100m square. Dunno if that increases beyond a certain distance? But it's why they point multiple at the same target and fire them all at the same time, greater coverage to compensate for unguided An individual rocket is going to fall within a rectangle of 160x300 metres if fired at a half of the reported maximum range of Grad. A steady salvo is going to continuously rattle the thing, and it’ll go even more all over the place. https://publications.ffi.no/nb/item/asset/dspace:3520/09-00179.pdf p. 49 in particular Franks Happy Place posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1590988573896867840?t=LCVSBfKC8l5WirVslZS-8A&s=19 That means the Nova Kakhovka dam is the only bridge standing* in the region. *For certain values of standing, where it was the more damaged one over the recent months, and where we simply don’t have any recent photos of it to know to the contrary.
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Nov 11, 2022 11:09
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Charlz Guybon posted:https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1590843978919792640 It was absolutely insane to publicly announce that you are withdrawing when there was no plan of how to do it. Not that with the level of Russian comsec you could have kept it hidden very long, but at least the initial rumours were unconfirmed and taken with a grain of salt. So now what. Russians in Kherson are spread across a wide and shallow zone along Dnipro. Bridges and big barges are becoming increasingly risky as they make high value targets for Ukrainian artillery. However Russians have lots of amphibious vehicles and Kherson area is full of smaller civilian boats so I think there is going to be real regatta once they start to run out of options.
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Nov 11, 2022 11:14
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Russian MOD claims that not a single soldier or piece of military equipment was left behind. Even harder to believe than 18k troops not making it in time for the retreat.
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Nov 11, 2022 11:15
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'll stick with cautious pessimism until the picture is clearer, but if the rumors are true ukraine is looking at dealing an order of magnitude more pows than they've had to handle previously, right? This is not a new thing: https://youtu.be/0bWt81vhIyY But you’re not wrong
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Nov 11, 2022 11:17
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Paladinus posted:Russian MOD claims that not a single soldier or piece of military equipment was left behind. Even harder to believe than 18k troops not making it in time for the retreat. "Soldiers are not left behind if they are told to change into civilian clothes and marked as discharged from the military." MOD tap heads Seriously though, it's a mess of confusion right now but I'm hopeful that we'll be seeing more good news for Ukraine in the coming days as information gets verified Does anyone know much about what the process of rallying disorganised forces after a rout is usually like in the military, and how well Russia might do at that? Thousands of panicked, freshly-conscripted russians soldiers fleeing back across the river any way they can seems like an easy opportunity for Ukraine to slip special forces in disguise in with them for whatever purpose, but I don't know enough about how the retreating forces might be handled on the other side to know if it's a practical thing to do.
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Nov 11, 2022 11:30
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Slashrat posted:"Soldiers are not left behind if they are told to change into civilian clothes and marked as discharged from the military." MOD tap heads You joke, but- https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591010712834514945
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Nov 11, 2022 11:54
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Slashrat posted:Does anyone know much about what the process of rallying disorganised forces after a rout is usually like in the military, and how well Russia might do at that? Thousands of panicked, freshly-conscripted russians soldiers fleeing back across the river any way they can seems like an easy opportunity for Ukraine to slip special forces in disguise in with them for whatever purpose, but I don't know enough about how the retreating forces might be handled on the other side to know if it's a practical thing to do. ...and then? You have, among scared conscripts, a handful of remarkably good shaped guys that nobody remembers from earlier. They would be recognised by next pay day at latest. I mean just because you are a deserter or routed doesn't mean that you disappear from the army's records and nobody knows who the gently caress you are. If a deserter is found and they can't explain who they are and what unit they belong to, they will be put in jail until they figure it out. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 12:05 on Nov 11, 2022 |
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Nov 11, 2022 12:02
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PHotos and some footage coming out in recent hours of UAF entering Kherson city proper https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591023216130392065
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Nov 11, 2022 12:08
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Nenonen posted:It was absolutely insane to publicly announce that you are withdrawing when there was no plan of how to do it. Not that with the level of Russian comsec you could have kept it hidden very long, but at least the initial rumours were unconfirmed and taken with a grain of salt.
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Nov 11, 2022 12:16
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Charlz Guybon posted:Didn't the Russians dpend the last month sinking those boats? Yeah, they did.
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Nov 11, 2022 12:16
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What's also worth remembering when reading reports about the disarray during the retreat, based on information on social networks, data on killed and wounded, videos of soldiers unhappy with their equipment and quarters, the mobilised weren't sent to Kherson in large numbers, if at all. All signs point to them being shipped straight to the LDNR front. So if there are still Russian soldiers in Kherson, most of them would be much more well-trained and disciplined than the new conscripts. I imagine losing them there would be not just bad PR, but a big hit to Russian army's military strength.
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Nov 11, 2022 12:17
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Charlz Guybon posted:Didn't the Russians spend the last month sinking those boats? I don't think they just destroyed every single boat in Dnipro without keeping a bunch for themselves.
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Nov 11, 2022 12:19
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Paracausal posted:PHotos and some footage coming out in recent hours of UAF entering Kherson city proper Alea blyatka est!
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Nov 11, 2022 12:27
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