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Outside Kherson, abandoned clothes, food and ammunition are signs of a hasty Russian withdrawal.quote:BLAHODATNE, Ukraine — In the villages west of Kherson, there were signs of a hasty Russian retreat and faltering efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance on Friday.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 00:58 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 15:44 |
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KitConstantine posted:What is the fate of the 'king of the rain'? ♪ it's his destiny to be the king of rain ♪
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 01:03 |
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That's one hell of a salient they're making themselves in the northwest there.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 01:16 |
Chalks posted:We may be in for some interesting footage of the areas that were being hit with artillery during the retreat last night, I don't think we've seen what state the docks are in or the staging areas for the ferries and pontoon bridges. That said, footage of Russian soldiers calmly walking across the pontoon bridge this morning is the best evidence I've seen yet that it was not a rout. Very good thread indeed. Unroll for convenience: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1591192952923369472.html
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 01:19 |
Charliegrs posted:I counted something like 10 or 11 HIMARS here. Isn't that like the majority that Ukraine has? No. Ukraine has 38 M142 (6 tubes each) and 14 M270 (12 tubes each). 11 M142 therefore works out to 1/6 of “GMLRS firepower” they have. Also there’s no way in hell that’s a meaningfully recent video. Crosby B. Alfred posted:What's going to be next after Kherson? There’s going to be a roughly 2-month period from mid-January until mid-March where they can try something on a reasonably solid ground.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 01:24 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:It really seems to me that Putin is quickly running out of options, and this is quickly becoming one enormous sunk cost fallacy. I think the only realistic option he has is to hold on and hope that a lack of gas causes Europe to pressure Ukraine into accepting something that can be passed off as a win in Russia. After that? There's not much left by that point. Early spring next year could well be a major inflection point in the war because this is when it will become apparent that Europe has made it through and further pressure on energy markets is unlikely to help Russia's cause. The question then becomes whether Russia is willing to engage in a forever war against a near-peer opponent while suffering sanctions, incurring long term (potentially permanent) economic damage, and facing political backlash at home.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 01:33 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:On another note, do we think we'll actually see a huge Spring push from Russia once all the new recruits are trained and equipped? I'm having a hard time seeing that with all the morale and equipment problems. Russia will have numbers, but Ukraine also has reserves to call up. They're also in better shape than Russia to train them effectively, both at home and with help of NATO countries. Add in the double morale boosts of defending their homes and the fact that they're winning right now, and Ukraine will have a large number of well-trained and highly motivated troops coming on line outfitted with quality gear. Russia has none of these advantages and is going to be in real trouble on the front line when the snow starts. Honestly, time is starting to favor the Ukranians. This winter will be bad for Russia, but if the war is still going on when the Spring mud dries, they're getting steamrolled.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 02:00 |
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gay picnic defence posted:I think the only realistic option he has is to hold on and hope that a lack of gas causes Europe to pressure Ukraine into accepting something that can be passed off as a win in Russia. The thing is, Europe can't do that. As in, is literally unable to. So long as Poland and the US keep the support up, Ukraine can at least stay in the fight. Laws that have already been passed make sure that US can keep up the support to the end of FY23, and I don't think there's much of a risk of Poland faltering either. And so when you know that acting in one way cannot result in the outcome you seek, might as well go the other way and hope that increased support will result in a shorter war.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 03:13 |
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mllaneza posted:Honestly, time is starting to favor the Ukranians. This winter will be bad for Russia, but if the war is still going on when the Spring mud dries, they're getting steamrolled. I wouldn't be so optimistic, it's far more likely it'll be grinding attritional fighting especially once Ukraine starts hitting the more established defensive lines from 2014, no matter how low morale or poor the equipment/training gets for the Russians.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 03:20 |
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Is there likely to be an uptick in US aid now the midterms are out of the way and Biden doesn't have to worry quite so much about domestic political blowback if Russia starts rattling the nuke sabre again? I very much doubt they want to head into the presidential election with this war still going on and upping the ante with lethal aid would likely bring it to a faster conclusion.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 03:43 |
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gay picnic defence posted:Is there likely to be an uptick in US aid now the midterms are out of the way and Biden doesn't have to worry quite so much about domestic political blowback if Russia starts rattling the nuke sabre again? I am not sure if there is going to be an uptick but there likely won't be a degrade. We will see what both the House and Senate look like which will likely still dictate how much support can be pushed through. Although giving Ukraine support is popular on both sides so I don't see it drying up anytime soon.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 04:23 |
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fez_machine posted:I wouldn't be so optimistic, it's far more likely it'll be grinding attritional fighting especially once Ukraine starts hitting the more established defensive lines from 2014, no matter how low morale or poor the equipment/training gets for the Russians. Getting to the 2014 borders (arguably winning the war) this spring is already very optimistic. I think it would be safe to say the Russians have been steamrolled if they're fighting in Melitopol this spring, not all the way to Donetsk.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 04:26 |
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mllaneza posted:Russia will have numbers, but Ukraine also has reserves to call up. They're also in better shape than Russia to train them effectively, both at home and with help of NATO countries. Add in the double morale boosts of defending their homes and the fact that they're winning right now, and Ukraine will have a large number of well-trained and highly motivated troops coming on line outfitted with quality gear. Russia has none of these advantages and is going to be in real trouble on the front line when the snow starts. To add to this, Russia trains its troops by sending in the new recruits to the unit they will be deployed to, not some specialised base to learn their skills. This is a problem when your BTG is fighting a war and they have lost a lot of their trained soldiers already.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 04:40 |
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https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1591285656462176257
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 06:26 |
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I think this is some sort of nazi neopagan symbol that Zaluzhny is showing again out in the open, is this what you support, libs? https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1590688574961520640 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 09:15 |
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Tuna-Fish posted:The thing is, Europe can't do that. As in, is literally unable to. Unable to make it through the winter, or unable to pressure Ukraine? I think you mean the latter but I wasn't sure.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 10:08 |
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spankmeister posted:Unable to make it through the winter, or unable to pressure Ukraine? I think you mean the latter but I wasn't sure. Europe is low-key in the middle of a fairly amazing heat anomaly. It's like a mild summer day at the moment, but it's November, so few people are turning on the heating. This won't last obviously, but it's given time to mitigate the looming heating crisis when winter does arrive. It's incredible good luck for Ukraine and Europe both, and means what hope Russia had to freeze Europe to submission is largely gone.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 10:30 |
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Bug Squash posted:Europe is low-key in the middle of a fairly amazing heat anomaly. It's like a mild summer day at the moment, but it's November, so few people are turning on the heating. This won't last obviously, but it's given time to mitigate the looming heating crisis when winter does arrive. It's incredible good luck for Ukraine and Europe both, and means what hope Russia had to freeze Europe to submission is largely gone. Yeah, Germany is still at like 99% gas capacity. They literally can't buy any Russian gas right now even if they wanted to. I and many others haven't even turned the heating on this fall, due to high gas prices.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 11:01 |
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Bug Squash posted:Europe is low-key in the middle of a fairly amazing heat anomaly. It's like a mild summer day at the moment, but it's November, so few people are turning on the heating. This won't last obviously, but it's given time to mitigate the looming heating crisis when winter does arrive. It's incredible good luck for Ukraine and Europe both, and means what hope Russia had to freeze Europe to submission is largely gone. This is obviously global climate change, as we all fully know. The problem is usually the additional side effects, where we may have an extra cold or extra long winter. So that (I would haphazard a guess?) is maybe an unknown factor in how the latter would be handled? I would hope having more time as you note secures the rest, to keep Europe safe enough to survive.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 11:11 |
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Flavahbeast posted:♪ it's his destiny to be the king of rain ♪ ♪ There's a blue-and-yellow flag in Kherson today♪
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 11:14 |
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notwithoutmyanus posted:This is obviously global climate change, as we all fully know. The problem is usually the additional side effects, where we may have an extra cold or extra long winter. So that (I would haphazard a guess?) is maybe an unknown factor in how the latter would be handled? I would hope having more time as you note secures the rest, to keep Europe safe enough to survive. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) just gave their forecast that in Finland December-February period would be two degrees Celsius warmer than average.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 11:51 |
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Nenonen posted:The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) just gave their forecast that in Finland December-February period would be two degrees Celsius warmer than average. Welp, I'm completely wrong then. Guess that would also work out, which is good.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 11:55 |
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https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-dark-ships Nord Stream update: quote:Once it gathered archive images of the area, SpaceKnow created a series of polygons around the gas leak sites. The smallest of these, around 400 square meters, covered the immediate blast area, and larger areas of interest covered several kilometers. In the weeks leading up to the explosions, SpaceKnow detected 25 ships passing through the region, from “cargo ships to multipurpose larger ships,” Javornicky says. In total, 23 of these vessels had their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders turned on. Two did not have AIS data turned on, and these ships passed the area during the days immediately ahead of the leaks being detected.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 11:59 |
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Bug Squash posted:Europe is low-key in the middle of a fairly amazing heat anomaly. It's like a mild summer day at the moment, but it's November, so few people are turning on the heating. This won't last obviously, but it's given time to mitigate the looming heating crisis when winter does arrive. It's incredible good luck for Ukraine and Europe both, and means what hope Russia had to freeze Europe to submission is largely gone. Yeah I know, I live there. I was just a tad confused by Tuna-Fish's post, which is probably just me misinterpreting them, but the source of my confusion was the fact that Europe will highly likely make it through the winter relatively unscathed, since all the gas storage is almost at max capacity.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 12:00 |
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It is extremely fortuitous, I live in the UK where we can apparently only store 3 days' worth of gas at a time, and I am still going to (blue collar) work in shorts and a shirt. Normally the heating would be on and we'd be going out with scarves, gloves, that kind of thing. It still feels like September. edit: not to take away from the fact that this is unfortunately ultimately a major climate catastrophe Zedsdeadbaby fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Nov 12, 2022 |
# ? Nov 12, 2022 12:17 |
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cant cook creole bream posted:Yeah, Germany is still at like 99% gas capacity. They literally can't buy any Russian gas right now even if they wanted to. I and many others haven't even turned the heating on this fall, due to high gas prices. EU gas storage capacity is at 95%+ as of today and still (very slowly) climbing thanks to this very well timed, continent wide, long autumn heatwave. Thats beyond even the most wildly optimistic estimates from earlier in the year. The original stated goal was to have capacity hitting 80% in mid-October before it started to be used/go down.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 12:27 |
Also, it's not just climate change. Europe still has the capacity for very cold winters, climate change just nudges the odds. Like, if there was a 5% chance of a winter this warm in 1980, it's now a 10% chance. That doesn't mean Europe hasn't got lucky hitting that 10%, even if the range is larger.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 12:33 |
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Apparently gas consumption in Europe is down 22% this year, mostly thanks to regular households.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 12:34 |
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Paladinus posted:Apparently gas consumption in Europe is down 22% this year, mostly thanks to regular households. Because prices spiked wildly, people started to be more frugal. Also energy-heavy industries like fertilizer production and aluminum smelting just stopped.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 13:08 |
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https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1591388780963168256
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 13:12 |
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I'm in Ireland and yeah, we still haven't needed to turn the heating on - normally, we'd have it on low from around mid September, but it's still pretty mild. I'm sitting in a room with the window open, and the thermostat is telling me it's 16.6c/62f.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 13:16 |
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Paladinus posted:Apparently gas consumption in Europe is down 22% this year, mostly thanks to regular households. Our office also decided to lower the thermostat temperature from the usual 24 (I think? haven't been there in a while) degrees.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 13:23 |
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As a counter point, yes it has been much h milder this winter. But I still need to turn the heating on. Even outside of the fact that our central heating heats the water for the showers, and we have a solid fuel stove for the living room, we still put the heat on for maybe two hours a day just to make it warmer. But this is down from a really cold winter where we'd have the central heating on for 5-7 hours a day. People I talk to do (almost brag) about not turning the heating on, but let's not pretend you have to conserve heating oil like it's bullets in a Resident Evil game.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 13:48 |
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The Question IRL posted:People I talk to do (almost brag) about not turning the heating on, but let's not pretend you have to conserve heating oil like it's bullets in a Resident Evil game. If someone is part of the poorest 20% of society struggling to put food on the the table then thats literally what they have to do, every extra euro spent on heating is a euro less available for food/rent.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:12 |
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Pookah posted:I'm in Ireland and yeah, we still haven't needed to turn the heating on - normally, we'd have it on low from around mid September, but it's still pretty mild. Up in Co. Antrim here and i'm the same, windows open with standard gray skies outside and living room is 18c.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:21 |
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Thank god for the gulf stream
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:23 |
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fez_machine posted:I wouldn't be so optimistic, it's far more likely it'll be grinding attritional fighting especially once Ukraine starts hitting the more established defensive lines from 2014, no matter how low morale or poor the equipment/training gets for the Russians. One wonders how maintained those positions are now and what’s sort of equipment and matériel are left to support it
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:25 |
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spankmeister posted:Unable to make it through the winter, or unable to pressure Ukraine? I think you mean the latter but I wasn't sure. The latter. The weather co-operated (global warming was useful for once lol) and this delayed the beginning of heating season enough that the eu is now fine until next winter.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:31 |
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/11/ukraine-sbu-traitors-russia-kharkiv/quote:KHARKIV REGION, Ukraine — The hunt for Ukrainians helping the Russians led the intelligence investigators to an idyllic village with a house on a hill, where the father of an accused traitor lives.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:54 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 15:44 |
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jarlywarly posted:Thank god for the gulf stream Unfortunately global warming makes it more likely to collapse.
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# ? Nov 12, 2022 14:56 |