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They haven't been less deadly strains. The most susceptible people were just already dead by then, which deflates death rate going forward until the next most susceptible group steps up to the chopping block. The strains instead keep getting worse. We've been had. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-severe-previous-covid-variants-large-study-finds-2022-05-05/ maxwellhill fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Nov 13, 2022 |
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Nov 13, 2022 10:02
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Vegetable posted:Honestly I think the main problem here is gonna be optics. It’d be way easier to sell massive deaths if the other countries were all dying at the same time, like in 2020 or 2021. How many governments actually got voted out for their COVID response? Used to be diseases toppled empires. During COVID they just led to slightly weaker majorities. Gonna be harder when it’s just your people that’s suffering, though. The thing is, we still don't know the long term effects of the virus. Vaccines do help, but its not like they are panaceas. Breakthroughs happen and it is known that COVID fucks up your immune system. We might see something different in a few years. ronya posted:China has remarkably low hospital beds per capita and physicians per capita for its level of development. Its public health strategy assumes that crises are regional, so that resources can be mobilized between provinces and cities. This is why I've never understood why CSPAM simps over China, other than AMERICA BAD. They think China has universal healthcare.  maxwellhill posted:They haven't been less deadly strains. The most susceptible people were just already dead by then, which deflates death rate going forward until the next most susceptible group steps up to the chopping block. The strains instead keep getting worse. We've been had. Yes, but have you considered it is just the flu, the first time you catch it?
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Nov 13, 2022 11:38
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Forceholy posted:This is why I've never understood why CSPAM simps over China, other than AMERICA BAD. They think China has universal healthcare. The other place you really see this kind of thing? Pop-sci publications. Why yes as a professional physicist I mostly see 5* conference hotels in major cities with free champagne, but no reason to think the rest of the country isn't the same. Truly China is leading the world in a gentler and more responsible model of government *burp*
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Nov 13, 2022 12:02
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what I would like is some hard statistics on how effective China's micro-lockdowns have been, as enabled by app-supported contract tracing many countries tried micro lockdowns and many countries tried contact tracing apps, but none as thoroughly as China. And this is a country with an unusually large and mobile domestic migrant population it does seem evident that Omicron has managed to escape containment repeatedly nonetheless, but then again, China's a big place
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Nov 13, 2022 14:49
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Forceholy posted:They think China has universal healthcare. A lot of people think this. It's bizarre. I guess people think the US is the only country with for-profit healthcare, therefore China must have universal? China's system is the same as the US, with all the problems of medical bankruptcy and poo poo (if you remember any news stories about all the hospital stabbings in China, that's usually something about medical debt). The biggest difference is that if you can afford to get treated in the US, the treatment is pretty good. In China unless you're in a major city that has a fancy western-standard hospital and you can afford to go there, good luck.
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Nov 13, 2022 18:57
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all the socialist western nations have universal healthcare and what's more socialist than communism so china must have it as well.
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Nov 13, 2022 22:04
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ronya posted:what I would like is some hard statistics on how effective China's micro-lockdowns have been, as enabled by app-supported contract tracing Given the transmissibility of omicron etc, the surprise wasn't that it escaped, it was that it was brought back under control. There were a solid couple of weeks where I thought the big recent Shanghai spike was uncontrollable. And, I mean, down south right now is another one that might escape. We'll see, I guess. Re: healthcare, yeah, lots of health-related bankruptcy. I guess what you can say for it is, there's a very clearly signposted division of cost. That is: If you have something minor/external/simple, care is very cheap. Affordable even to people in poorly developed rural areas via weird work-based insurance-saving-account things. If you have something internal and complicated, set your affairs in order, because only the richest can deal with that sort of cost. So... obviously far from universal and far from ideal, but there's at least no such thing as surprise billing, either in the immediate sense or the conceptual sense. Essentially it's a system designed to fix what can be fixed back up into productivity, and to ignore the rest. Which is terrible when applied to humans, but I guess... less terrible than it demonstrably could be?
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Nov 14, 2022 01:09
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Ghostlight posted:all the socialist western nations have universal healthcare and what's more socialist than communism so china must have it as well. a fun game to play is to pinpoint which tacit assumptions exist because they were true of the Soviet Union (a net oil exporter with a welfare transfer system at levels comparable with their Western European counterparts and mind-boggling mil% of GDP atop that, willing to subsidize Cuba and Syria and Angola for decades) - but of course not of contemporary China (a net oil importer etc.) Atopian posted:Given the transmissibility of omicron etc, the surprise wasn't that it escaped, it was that it was brought back under control. There were a solid couple of weeks where I thought the big recent Shanghai spike was uncontrollable. I suppose the question is: controllable at what cost. Shanghai is rich. Guangzhou is also rich, if somewhat less so than Shanghai. Ghulja and Lhasa are not rich at all, and so have the longest lockdowns. Given the new directives, what tradeoffs are officials expected to make?
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Nov 14, 2022 07:27
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If I m remembering correctly and I welcome others to correct me. With communist "purges" you get ride of threats to your power and educated people like doctors, lawyers, teachers etc. Mao's china needed doctors and he magicked up traditional peasant doctors.
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Nov 14, 2022 12:29
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Ups_rail posted:If I m remembering correctly and I welcome others to correct me. Essentially yes, with some clarifications and complications. And while it is clear that the government doesn't genuinely appreciate TCM, to actually say or do anything about that would be to draw attention to that little piece of history. So.
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Nov 14, 2022 13:45
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In latest HK news, pro Beijing types falling over themselves to denounce Asia Rugby playing the protester's unofficial HK national anthem over the Chinese national anthem at a rugby match in South Korea. The issue happened due to some local junior staffer googling the HK anthem after HKRU failed to send over the appropriate song. HK Chief Executive even announced a police investigation into the issue and various political figures are trying to escalate it into a diplomatic issue and demanding an official apology from SK governement. https://twitter.com/krislc/status/1591900003773329409 https://twitter.com/Byron_Wan/status/1592133706160177152
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Nov 14, 2022 15:02
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Just saw this advertised on Facebook. The map is so beautiful. https://www.reversedfront.tw/pages/bg 
bamhand fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Nov 14, 2022 |
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Nov 14, 2022 15:14
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Atopian posted:And while it is clear that the government doesn't genuinely appreciate TCM, to actually say or do anything about that would be to draw attention to that little piece of history. So. They appreciate it when it is cheaper, hence the push during COVID. It’s a significant tool for propaganda as long as it being effective, with Chinese characteristics.
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Nov 14, 2022 16:08
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bamhand posted:Just saw this advertised on Facebook. The map is so beautiful. That reminds me, you hear surprisingly little salt over Russia nicking a chunk of Manchuria, especially when "access to the pacific" is the general explanation given for Taiwan etc.
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Nov 14, 2022 16:30
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Huh. Apparently, China is getting rid of Vaccine mandates.
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Nov 14, 2022 16:30
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https://twitter.com/HAOHONG_CFA/status/1592167550368256000
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Nov 14, 2022 16:32
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Let 'er 
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Nov 14, 2022 16:38
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one of my tankie friends stopped letting me see their instagram story when i replied to one only to say that china isn't communist in the least and is one of the few places in the world, along with the usa, that doesn't guarantee healthcare.
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Nov 14, 2022 17:30
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lol oh sure people are gonna love being told they suffered to stop the flu....
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Nov 14, 2022 17:33
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Genuinely going to be mad if they allow travel again before my Asia trip. Though I'm not sure I'd trust things are stabilizing enough quite yet to go visit Chengdu.
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Nov 14, 2022 17:44
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Mr. Nice! posted:one of the few places in the world, along with the usa, that doesn't guarantee healthcare.
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Nov 14, 2022 18:05
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McGavin posted:Let 'er Problem: People aren't visiting their elderly parents Solution: Have less elderly parents
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Nov 14, 2022 18:06
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to be fair, there is definitely need to reduce public fear in advance of any reopening, so that the expected case surge does not cause panic or rushes to hospitals public numeracy is difficult! it can be simultaneously true, even for the developed countries with well-functioning public health systems, that 98% of cases are minor whilst the 2% of severe illness is sufficient to swamp public health capacity (several orders of magnitude greater than the flu, for comparison). People unfortunately struggle to respond rationally to these kinds of abstract probabilities.
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Nov 14, 2022 19:15
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one of my favorite of the many many many academic beefs i know of and sometimes have met one party of is the gigerenzer-kahnemann beef. kahnemann mentioned it obliquely in his 2002 rijksbank prize ("nobel prize of economics") speech but the meat of it goes like this: two cog scientists arguing over how to get peeps to understand probabilities. kahnemann's basic point is that people don't understand them in material ways that he goes over in his papers, gigerenzer's point is that they understand them fine if you present the data to them properly. his favorite example is the take-the-best-heuristic: instead of going over and renormalizing sums, take-the-best heuristic poses an ansatz of the probabilities as ~ power law (which they often are in practice), takes the most important member of the distribution and decides based on it. kahnemann wins for a long while and writes a famous book ("thinking fast and slow"). the book is, some time afterwards, basically like ground fuckin zero for the psychology replication crisis, like 4/5 of that book doesnt replicate. gigerenzer continues plodding on tldr: poo poo hard
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Nov 14, 2022 19:57
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Forceholy posted:Less deadly, but there is still a chance for long Covid complications. If China opens up, millions will die, but even millions more would have to deal with cardiovascular issues, as well as brain fog, possible diabetes and blood clots causing up to death. https://archive.ph/3Dzia quote:After scouring a Customs and Border Protection database which tracks goods entering the US, they noticed China had started hoarding PPE far earlier than the initial date of the outbreak.
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Nov 14, 2022 20:01
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I think Kahnemann copped to a few parts of the book not being replicated, but 4/5 seems like an overstatement.
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Nov 14, 2022 20:02
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Vegetable posted:I think Kahnemann copped to a few parts of the book not being replicated, but 4/5 seems like an overstatement. it is a bit of an overstatement but not that much here is a thingy with way more detail than you could possibly ever want https://replicationindex.com/category/thinking-fast-and-slow/
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Nov 14, 2022 20:33
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 first it was smiling xi with santa now it's with biden. what's going on, who's next???
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Nov 14, 2022 21:18
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Booty Pageant posted:
Biden is 6 feet tall and Xi is 5 foot 9. Careful edit or some creative photography.
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Nov 14, 2022 22:02
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I was told on Twitter today that China has never threatened Taiwan, but Taiwan is constantly threatening the existence of China.
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Nov 15, 2022 01:57
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Atlas Hugged posted:I was told on Twitter today that China has never threatened Taiwan, but Taiwan is constantly threatening the existence of China.
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Nov 15, 2022 02:04
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ninjoatse.cx posted:Biden is 6 feet tall and Xi is 5 foot 9. Careful edit or some creative photography. Scully box.
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Nov 15, 2022 02:06
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Atlas Hugged posted:I was told on Twitter today that China has never threatened Taiwan, but Taiwan is constantly threatening the existence of China. What, in a Jewish people are a threat to the KKK with 14 words sense or...? Big brained Bhrad homeschool of discussion strike hard ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 02:09 on Nov 15, 2022 |
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Nov 15, 2022 02:06
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Scully box. many of the pithy shorthand pop-culture phrases bypass me; this one did not
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Nov 15, 2022 02:11
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Atlas Hugged posted:I was told on Twitter today that China has never threatened Taiwan, but Taiwan is constantly threatening the existence of China.
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Nov 15, 2022 02:36
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/10/legoland-south-korea-bond-market-crisis/ Kim Jin-tae hosed up. Guy’s a governor in Korea and refused to pay back a bond and basically made government bonds from SK completely worthless
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Nov 15, 2022 02:54
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thetoughestbean posted:https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/10/legoland-south-korea-bond-market-crisis/ quote:After years of delay caused by a discovery of ancient artifacts in the construction site and allegations of bribery and kickbacks,
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Nov 15, 2022 02:56
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https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/1592348066920570881?s=46&t=TziOqAyDMhPo98AhYJjQeA
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Nov 15, 2022 03:46
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eagerly awaiting Big Red Trucker Convoy (not actually; that was dumb as poo poo and I never want to see it again anywhere) (gently caress off Brazil)
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Nov 15, 2022 04:08
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Shumagorath posted:eagerly awaiting Big Red Trucker Convoy Deathcount in the thousands. No soldier or cop could hope to stand against China's apex land predator.
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Nov 15, 2022 06:22
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