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Sergei Lavrov is in a hospital with presumably a lot of windows.
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Nov 14, 2022 10:31
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WaltherFeng posted:Sergei Lavrov is in a hospital with presumably a lot of windows. https://apnews.com/article/europe-indonesia-sergey-lavrov-g-20-summit-bali-bc297126b7542dd4e5342140d4a9b68e article on it. basically no information currently beyond 'heart issues'
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Nov 14, 2022 10:38
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Sounds like he's out now https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1592092718553042945
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Nov 14, 2022 10:54
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Seems like Zelenskyy has decide to stretch his legs a little and tour liberated Kherson. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1592090565142790144
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Nov 14, 2022 11:08
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Herstory Begins Now posted:https://apnews.com/article/europe-indonesia-sergey-lavrov-g-20-summit-bali-bc297126b7542dd4e5342140d4a9b68e Went hog (horse?) wild on missed sanctioned food 
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Nov 14, 2022 11:23
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Cable Guy posted:I've seen the video in that tweet posted a couple of times, but I've not seen anything that definitely connects it to operations in Kinburn. Has anybody got a source to confirm that...? I mean given the opsec conditions that Ukraine seems to be operating under I don't see a reason why they would release this unless it was older footage or from a different area... There are claims that it's Kinburn but it's not like anyone is able to geolocate it and you're totally right about the opsec side - it doesn't seem to make sense that Ukraine would publicise this. That, coupled with the risk of such a mission makes me think this is false. But still the rumours persist today https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1592090658084655105 https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1592095616368537600 https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1591988320523161600
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Nov 14, 2022 11:30
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Charliegrs posted:How in the hell would western countries ever have fought a war with Russia? Just the act of supplying a third party with arms is now depleting their ammo reserves I can't imagine what it would be like if NATO countries fought Russia (or China) directly. I know the military industrial complex must be LOVING this though. Nobody enters a war with enough materiel and ammunition to prosecute it to the end. That seems to be a constant since the first world war: Everyone underestimates their burn rate. Keep in mind that no NATO country has transitioned to a war economy or used emergency powers to accelerate production.
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Nov 14, 2022 11:33
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That article is also the MIC saying dear Biden, you have such a wonderful lend lease program. Be a shame if it stayed cooped up in the garage. Maybe let it out on the town a little, you know?
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Nov 14, 2022 11:37
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Signs of coming peace - Zelensky visits Russia (according to Russia) https://mobile.twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1592093676658135040 Edit: oops, late to post this
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Nov 14, 2022 11:37
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It's a sign of Ukrainian progress for sure, but a sign of coming peace?
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Nov 14, 2022 11:38
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TheRat posted:It's a sign of Ukrainian progress for sure, but a sign of coming peace? I'm joking, it's funny that the area was occupied and officially declared a part of Russia and now isn't anymore and Putin is swallowing it down Also notably the nukes aren't flying to put the doomers to rest
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Nov 14, 2022 11:40
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There is no peace until russia is outright defeated. And they understand they were defeated. There is still "our troops need a vacation", "no fun in Kherson anymore" views out there. I heard an even more interesting take, "we are losing? Eh, who cares, let them win so life gets back to normal".
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Nov 14, 2022 12:51
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AP published a couple of photos of people tied to poles for allegedly collaborating with Russians. , I guess, even though they do not appear to be injured.https://i.imgur.com/Aqs3tbe.png Judging by the zip ties, it wasn't mob justice, but part of the sweeps AFU are conducting against Russian saboteurs and marauders. Also not clear if they were left there as a punishment, or essentially handcuffed to be picked up later when it's time to bring all suspects in for questioning. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/13/7376199/ Russian propagandists are also trying to spin the narrative that several CNN and Sky News journos, who had their accreditation revoked for reporting from Kherson without military command's approval, were about to report on the real war crimes perpetrated by Ukrainians, but were silenced by the nazi regime. Not sure why CNN and Sky are responsible for AP photos in this scenario, though.
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Nov 14, 2022 13:11
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OddObserver posted:In lighter news, here is a supposed video of a Russian stealing a raccoon from Kherson zoo. Marked as First they came for the washing machines, now take take even the washing bears
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Nov 14, 2022 14:38
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At last we can see those Russian concrete traffic cones in action vs a Ukrainian IFV https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1592153855105826818
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Nov 14, 2022 14:57
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Chalks posted:At last we can see those Russian concrete traffic cones in action vs a Ukrainian IFV I imagine non-tank vehicles will still struggle with them, so they are not that useless.
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Nov 14, 2022 14:59
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Paladinus posted:I imagine non-tank vehicles will still struggle with them, so they are not that useless. Sure, but so would a log across the road. These things were referred to as "dragon's teeth" which are specifically an anti-tank defence.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:02
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As posted before, everyone always underestimates ammunition expenditure in human history. In the late 1800s with the advent of magazine-fed bolt action rifles, many countries initially viewed the magazine as "for emergencies only" and had a cutoff that forced the soldiers to fire single shots and reload one round at a time, in an effort to conserve ammunition expenditure. NATO famously ran out of PGMs over Libya in a week and a half. It's a fairly interesting acquisitions problem, because it takes time, effort and knowledge to produce various kinds of munitions, and the more complex they are, the more pieces of the supply chain exist where you have to maintain institutional knowledge and capability. It's relatively easy to produce more dumb 152mm artillery rounds (the Bulgarians are cranking them out these days), but it's relatively hard to ramp up production of something like GMLRS rockets. Now, there are so many more consumables that are very high complexity compared to prior at-scale industrialized war. In WWII you can convert a typewriter factory over to making rifles. I don't think there's any kind of logical conversion program to make most of the advanced weapons and ammunitions that are required in a modern war. In an ideal world the war would lead to better procurement practices for consumables, but this has been happening for a long time and I doubt there will be huge changes.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:02
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Chalks posted:At last we can see those Russian concrete traffic cones in action vs a Ukrainian IFV They'd be a lot more useful if used as intended as part of an actual defensive position. Of course they don't do poo poo on their own. This speaks more to Russian overall operational competence than the actual effectiveness of various small antitank obstacles.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:04
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Paladinus posted:AP published a couple of photos of people tied to poles for allegedly collaborating with Russians. No, if this was mob justice, these guys would be tied a bit differently. By the loving neck.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:07
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Kikas posted:No, if this was mob justice, these guys would be tied a bit differently. There were plenty of videos of people tied up like this in early spring. Back then it was usually called mob justice for looting.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:20
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https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1592104889232285705 I don't think this was posted here, what a moment.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:26
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TheRat posted:There were plenty of videos of people tied up like this in early spring. Back then it was usually called mob justice for looting. Yes but looting does tend to be vieved a bit less harshly then collaboration with the enemy.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:31
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Letmebefrank posted:First they came for the washing machines, now take take even the washing bears Yeah, that was the first post on Twitter I saw under the original tweet too. Unfortunately it looks like in Russia "raccoon" is just a word (Енот) with seemingly no additional meaning, rather than it being a washing bear [German] or washing little rat [French].
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Nov 14, 2022 15:33
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Nitrox posted:Everybody wants to have their own private army, especially when power struggles are on the horizon It's this. Is Wagner large and influential enough to strangle any other corporate armies in Russia before they can be stood up? Charliegrs posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1591830216669732864?s=20&t=lf4-f31LpHJB4O8fu9qq-g Many planners assumed that a modern fight would be over quickly, and not the ongoing attritional fight we're seeing. Mick Ryan raised an excellent point recently that industrial capacity is another form of deterrence. Demonstrating to autocracies and imperialists that you can fight for extended periods changes the risk calculus of potential enemies.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:34
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Saladman posted:Yeah, that was the first post on Twitter I saw under the original tweet too. Unfortunately it looks like in Russia "raccoon" is just a word (Енот) with seemingly no additional meaning, rather than it being a washing bear [German] or washing little rat [French]. The official name of the species is енот-полоскун which means raccoon-washer (sorta)
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Nov 14, 2022 15:43
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The Pentagon has commissioned additional ammunition lines (presumably for dumb stuff?) but I don't know about the timescale...
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Nov 14, 2022 15:43
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OddObserver posted:The Pentagon has commissioned additional ammunition lines (presumably for dumb stuff?) but I don't know about the timescale... The Stinger case is pretty instructive for how capabilities deteriorate and what needs to be done to spool up. It's basically artisanal missile manufacturing, and the current production rate is really low as the DoD hasn't ordered Stingers in over a decade as they are due to be replaced in the Near Future. https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/no-easy-answer-for-ramping-up-stinger-production-pentagon-no-2-says/ In order to ramp up production they are actually going to have to redesign the seeker head because the components aren't available any more. A chunk of money from the most recent appropriations is going to fund accelerated ramp-up including redesign and alternate sourcing, but the optimistic timeline six months ago was a rate increase sometime in 2023.
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Nov 14, 2022 15:52
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:In an ideal world the war would Not picking on you, but one of my legit favorite phrases to catch in the wild.
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Nov 14, 2022 16:02
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piL posted:Not picking on you, but one of my legit favorite phrases to catch in the wild. Hell, if we're going to have em we might as well get something useful of of them.
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Nov 14, 2022 16:34
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Isn't the main issue that the majority of Ukraine's actually shooty equipment is Soviet, and uses ammo that most NATO countries have limited stocks of?
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Nov 14, 2022 17:22
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Ynglaur posted:It's this. Is Wagner large and influential enough to strangle any other corporate armies in Russia before they can be stood up? You really don't want to mess with actual warrior monks!
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Nov 14, 2022 17:35
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FishBulbia posted:Isn't the main issue that the majority of Ukraine's actually shooty equipment is Soviet, and uses ammo that most NATO countries have limited stocks of? thats part of it. the west can provide ukraine with western-pattern arms, but this also requires some level of training on how to operate and maintain the equipment. for some things like simple towed artillery, you can take a ukrainian artillerist and show them how to use an M777 without too much trouble because the basic operation of artillery tubes is pretty similar. for the HIMARS the training required is more complicated. for something like a western jet or tank like the abrams, its just not really feasible to train up enough ukrainian troops in time - teaching tank drivers and gunners on the new system wouldn't be too much of a problem but you'd need a huge number of mechanics and other support troops because western tanks are so different under the hood from soviet style tanks, such that the only feasible thing would be to send your own tank mechanics and that's just not going to happen
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Nov 14, 2022 17:43
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:... It's not feasible to train quickly, but nine month is a pretty long time, for example pilot training takes like 18 under normal conditions for example and could probably be shortened considerably. We've bought enough time to actually do a lot of the required training if it actually had been started. But so far I haven't seen anything to suggest that this actually happening.
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Nov 14, 2022 18:09
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mobby_6kl posted:That can't possibly be it, can it? The moment we run out of soviet era junk, that's it, Putin gets to walk into Kyiv? I'm sure there are dozens of analysts with spreadsheets keeping track of what's available and how fast it's being used. Lots of countries want to get rid of their Soviet legacy hardware and this is a great opportunity for it. They'll know when supplies are running out and they need to transition to something that's NATO standard.
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Nov 14, 2022 18:21
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:thats part of it. the west can provide ukraine with western-pattern arms, but this also requires some level of training on how to operate and maintain the equipment. for some things like simple towed artillery, you can take a ukrainian artillerist and show them how to use an M777 without too much trouble because the basic operation of artillery tubes is pretty similar. for the HIMARS the training required is more complicated. for something like a western jet or tank like the abrams, its just not really feasible to train up enough ukrainian troops in time - teaching tank drivers and gunners on the new system wouldn't be too much of a problem but you'd need a huge number of mechanics and other support troops because western tanks are so different under the hood from soviet style tanks, such that the only feasible thing would be to send your own tank mechanics and that's just not going to happen They should just start the training anyway, rotate out small amounts of soldiers or recruit some volunteers to go to Poland or the US to learn how to maintain and look after western platforms like Abrams or F-16 and then if they happen to come in handy 9 months later, great otherwise you now have a fancy new deterrent if the war stops and Russia thinks about trying this again. It's win-win no matter what happens unless Ukraine can't spare the men. But in this case a long-term play like this could be done with just new recruits who don't have experience yet. They probably have to unlearn some soviet era habits anyway. Even if they have no purpose in the war, Ukraine could be used as a low-cost MRO facility for Polish and other NATO forces that are going to be loading up on F-16s and US ground vehicles anyway. It might make for a nice bit of licensed use to keep formerly mobilized Ukrainians busy, employed and juice the GDP a bit. No matter how you look at it, the US alone probably can't handle all the export related production so why not open up some licensed subsidiary plants around Europe or elsewhere so people can maintain in situ or closer to where equipment is needed rather than sending everything back to lockheed? Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Nov 14, 2022 |
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Nov 14, 2022 18:36
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:What kind of diplomacy could Ukraine even do esp with a enemy that does not negotiate in good faith and clearly still wants to genocide the entire country? There is plenty of potential for negotiation with someone who may well want that, but has no capability to do so. It merely needs Putin to understand that his options are withdrawing from the annexed territories now, or having what remains of his army degraded to the point they couldn’t hold a beer cellar . While it may take him a long time to realize that, it could also be closer than seems apparent.
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Nov 14, 2022 18:48
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In the case of Abrams I don't think it's a training issue. Supposedly if you give an already trained tanker an Abrams they could figure it out with a day or two. It's likely either a tactical decision (U.S. not wanting Ukraine or Russia to have an Abrams) or a maintenance/parts issue.
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Nov 14, 2022 18:49
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Deteriorata posted:I'm sure there are dozens of analysts with spreadsheets keeping track of what's available and how fast it's being used. Lots of countries want to get rid of their Soviet legacy hardware and this is a great opportunity for it. Yeah I'm sure someone is keeping track, but by the time soviet stockpiles do run out, it would be too late to start training and setting up logistics. Which is why Kraftwerk posted:They should just start the training anyway, rotate out small amounts of soldiers or recruit some volunteers to go to Poland or the US to learn how to maintain and look after western platforms like Abrams or F-16 and then if they happen to come in handy 9 months later, great otherwise you now have a fancy new deterrent if the war stops and Russia thinks about trying this again. It's win-win no matter what happens unless Ukraine can't spare the men. But in this case a long-term play like this could be done with just new recruits who don't have experience yet. They probably have to unlearn some soviet era habits anyway.
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Nov 14, 2022 19:18
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https://twitter.com/samirasawlani/status/1592129672711733248
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Nov 14, 2022 19:21
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