The US will lose WW3

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The US will lose WW3

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Bar Ran Dun posted:

the thing I think one needs to understand is how little 77 tons a month is. that�s like 3-4 20� containers a month. it�s on its face a lie or falsehood.

Artillery rounds are packaged together on pallets, usually about 800 lbs for a small 2 x 4, but a bigger 4 x 6 you�d use a crane or fork for is 2300 lbs, that�s over an Imperial ton right there, and that�s less than a day�s load for one gun.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 03:15

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# ? May 25, 2024 15:12

ughhhh: Oct 17, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

I'm reading this book, "War of Numbers", by former CIA analyst Sam Adams, and it's the story of how he had found that MACV under Westmoreland during Vietnam had basically ignored all evidence (some of which he uncovered) that their estimates of VC/NVA strength was being undercounted by something like half-a-million men, and that when he tried to run it up the flagpole he just got stonewalled even from within the CIA itself, with Director Richard Helms himself threatening Adams to quit bringing it up.

I just looked up MACV-SOG wiki page just for laughs and there are no mentions of war crimes or crimes committed by those involved. LMAO

I have noticed alot of main wiki pages being scrubbed/buried crimes or horrible poo poo US did while more inane info such as a bunch of useless operation names and military jargon. You would look up MACV-SOG wiki page and find its command structure and how it fit within the larger military org and a list of a bunch of operations i had never heard of, but there wouldn't be any mention of the Phoenix Program except if you went through the links for "Psychological Warfare" etc.

ughhhh has issued a correction as of 03:37 on Nov 14, 2022

# ? Nov 14, 2022 03:19

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

gradenko_2000 posted:

I'm reading this book, "War of Numbers", by former CIA analyst Sam Adams, and it's the story of how he had found that MACV under Westmoreland during Vietnam had basically ignored all evidence (some of which he uncovered) that their estimates of VC/NVA strength was being undercounted by something like half-a-million men, and that when he tried to run it up the flagpole he just got stonewalled even from within the CIA itself, with Director Richard Helms himself threatening Adams to quit bringing it up.

So the Tet Offensive happens and there's a big pile of paperwork demonstrating that they knew all about the coming buildup but just didn't want to acknowledge the numbers.

Anyway, in a later chapter, Adam talks about how he got shuffled-off to the Cambodia beat after his bosses got irked with him trying to leak the pre-Tet Order-of-Battle estimates. He chances upon a memo about the Army challenging the CIA's estimates about the amount of war materiel is coming down through the Ho Chi Minh Trail. The official CIA number is 77 tons of supplies per month, which strikes him as low, and the Army is insisting that it is, and that it should be re-estimated to be higher.

Adams goes back to his old buddies working at the Africa desk to check on the Biafra insurgency, and asks them about what the supply pipeline is like for the rebels over there. His friends tell him its 150 tons per month, coming over a single dirt airfield. The comparison is, of course, ridiculous, and Adams starts writing a memo to that effect. His co-workers on the Vietnam desk try to wave him off of it, but he soldiers on, because it's The Truth, goshdarnit.

His memo comes out, and it circulates between the CIA and the Army. It's at this point that Adams finds out that the reason why there was this discrepancy, to put it mildly, is that the CIA has been trying to make it sound like all of the VC's supplies can only ever come through the Ho Chi Minh Trail, because if it doesn't, then the only other possible source of supplies would be if they were coming through Sihanoukville, Cambodia.

The Army then uses Adams's memo to bolster their case, and while certainly one memo couldn't have possible been the one thing that America's invasion of Cambodia was justified with, it did play a part.

so the CIA was trying to keep the war out of Cambodia? that's incredible

# ? Nov 14, 2022 04:50

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Bar Ran Dun posted:

man it was after tet too. honestly I�d like to see how they came up with it in the analysis. I wanna know what lol bullshit assumptions were used.

the other thing is what�s the end goal of doing that lovely of an analysis. what purpose does fabricating that serve? especially again after tet?

the first issue, the one about both the CIA and the Army severely underestimating the size of the Viet Cong, was born out of resisting the impulse to make the US look bad - Westmoreland had adopted a policy of waging a war of attrition in Vietnam, which meant that if they didn't keep making it look like the total number of VC was going down, it would expose the strategy as a failure

as it happened, they couldn't even make the numbers look like they were going down, the totals just stayed the same in report after report, but when Adams would collate the reports of KIAs and deserters and defectors, all of them looked presented a monthly drain that was making the VC look like they were perpetually only six months away from hitting zero men

as to how this was accomplished: the intelligence units would disregard the existence and the counts of political cadres, local militias, and support troops. The VC were made to look like they had a tooth-to-tail ratio of somewhere between 1:1 and 1:0, because as far as the US was concerned, logistical troops, medics, and staff did not exist, even though such similar troops were counted in American strength on the American side

___

now, when it came to Cambodia, as I said, the issue there was that the CIA wanted to hide the fact that lots of VC supplies were coming through Sihanoukville, because there was building pressure that such a supply line did exist, and that the US would have to get involved in Cambodia to put a stop to it

[at this point, I want to throw in a disclaimer that this is of course an account coming from a CIA analyst themselves, and that they never actually opposed the war - their problem was that the US was not prosecuting it intelligently, but it is interesting]

# ? Nov 14, 2022 06:28

Weka: May 5, 2019; That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

When did Cambodia begin growing heaps of poppies?

# ? Nov 14, 2022 06:34

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

gradenko_2000 posted:

[at this point, I want to throw in a disclaimer that this is of course an account coming from a CIA analyst themselves, and that they never actually opposed the war - their problem was that the US was not prosecuting it intelligently, but it is interesting]

Some of the best books are written by spooks. Edward Luttwaks Coup D'état, written about 1969, describes several key characteristics of how the CIA thinks about how a country can be overthrown and correctly identified Portugal as a country that would be easy to be overthrown.

Although their president* at the time was in a worse off state than Biden.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 06:38

Proust Malone: Apr 4, 2008

gradenko_2000 posted:

as it happened, they couldn't even make the numbers look like they were going down, the totals just stayed the same in report after report, but when Adams would collate the reports of KIAs and deserters and defectors, all of them looked presented a monthly drain that was making the VC look like they were perpetually only six months away from hitting zero men

I wasn�t aware Friedman had even served in Vietnam.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 07:21

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Frosted Flake posted:

Artillery rounds are packaged together on pallets, usually about 800 lbs for a small 2 x 4, but a bigger 4 x 6 you�d use a crane or fork for is 2300 lbs, that�s over an Imperial ton right there, and that�s less than a day�s load for one gun.

I'm disappointed they aren't packaged in ring pulls of 6 like beer cans. In fact if I was in charge I'd run a special 'a free 6 pack of lager with every 6 artillery shells if you order today, our phone operators are standing by".

Don't worry, it would only be mid-strength.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 07:37

A Bakers Cousin: Dec 18, 2003; by vyelkin

Those loading lugs are kinda like pull tabs and you can collect em

# ? Nov 14, 2022 07:41

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

It's all about branding. Mod blah type blah mark blah serial number blah no no no. That goes on the small print.

Front and centre you want a graffiti art flaming skull riding a skateboard above the stylised font words of "garage death eXtreme".

Bespoke artillery shells lovingly made by craftsmen who are as much artists as armorers.

The truly awesome underground manufacturers only people who move in the right circles know won't even have a visible label, just a beautiful piece of artwork screen printed onto each shell.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 07:45

A Bakers Cousin: Dec 18, 2003; by vyelkin

Our small artisinal artillery construction coops allow local entrepreneurs to expand their brand while expanding frag

# ? Nov 14, 2022 07:47

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

A Bakers Cousin posted:

Our small artisinal artillery construction coops allow local entrepreneurs to expand their brand while expanding frag

The perfect headline for a local newspaper puff piece.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 07:47

Weka: May 5, 2019; That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

DancingShade posted:

I'm disappointed they aren't packaged in ring pulls of 6 like beer cans. In fact if I was in charge I'd run a special 'a free 6 pack of lager with every 6 artillery shells if you order today, our phone operators are standing by".

Don't worry, it would only be mid-strength.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 11:57

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

gradenko_2000 posted:

___

now, when it came to Cambodia, as I said, the issue there was that the CIA wanted to hide the fact that lots of VC supplies were coming through Sihanoukville, because there was building pressure that such a supply line did exist, and that the US would have to get involved in Cambodia to put a stop to it

[at this point, I want to throw in a disclaimer that this is of course an account coming from a CIA analyst themselves, and that they never actually opposed the war - their problem was that the US was not prosecuting it intelligently, but it is interesting]

why didn�t they want to get involved in Cambodia? if you're fighting the war "intelligently" wouldn't you have to disrupt this supply route?

# ? Nov 14, 2022 16:22

Raskolnikov38: Mar 3, 2007; We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

indigi posted:

why didn�t they want to get involved in Cambodia? if you're fighting the war "intelligently" wouldn't you have to disrupt this supply route?

because the king of cambodia was being wooed by both the PRC and US and bombing them would have massively increased the popularity of the communists in the country and thrown him into the PRC camp.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 16:28

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

Raskolnikov38 posted:

because the king of cambodia was being wooed by both the PRC and US and bombing them would have massively increased the popularity of the communists in the country and thrown him into the PRC camp.

that makes a lot of sense thanks

# ? Nov 14, 2022 16:50

Alpha 1: Feb 17, 2012

Taiwan will lose WW3:
https://twitter.com/PaulHuangReport/status/1517473063926870016
Highlights of Taiwanese reserve training include:
- Old, worn out equipment
- Nonsensical battle plans that haven't changed in decades
- No connection between reserve training and what reservists originally did in the military
- No training in basic skills like tactics or first aid
- Not everyone getting a chance to practice shooting a gun
- People who get a chance to shoot a gun barely having any bullets

On the bright side, Taiwan just bought an amphibious assault ship in case they ever need to invade Fujian or something.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 19:50

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

if china wants taiwan it would be a really bad idea for them to resist. the US isn't coming to help and they are for sure 100% going to lose. so really it doesn't matter if they do the drills properly :shrug:

# ? Nov 14, 2022 20:03

Frosted Flake: Sep 13, 2011; Semper Shitpost Ubique

Alpha 1 posted:

Taiwan will lose WW3:
https://twitter.com/PaulHuangReport/status/1517473063926870016
Highlights of Taiwanese reserve training include:
- Old, worn out equipment
- Nonsensical battle plans that haven't changed in decades
- No connection between reserve training and what reservists originally did in the military
- No training in basic skills like tactics or first aid
- Not everyone getting a chance to practice shooting a gun
- People who get a chance to shoot a gun barely having any bullets

On the bright side, Taiwan just bought an amphibious assault ship in case they ever need to invade Fujian or something.

Their job is just to make invasion less worthwhile than diplomacy or to hold on until the Seventh Fleet gets there and/or a nuclear exchange begins, so I don�t think it�s worthwhile for Taiwan to invest too much tbh. In what scenario does Taiwan win on the battlefield without the island and/or world being destroyed?

Rutibex posted:

if china wants taiwan it would be a really bad idea for them to resist. the US isn't coming to help and they are for sure 100% going to lose. so really it doesn't matter if they do the drills properly

# ? Nov 14, 2022 20:45

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Frosted Flake posted:

Their job is just to make invasion less worthwhile than diplomacy or to hold on until the Seventh Fleet gets there and/or a nuclear exchange begins, so I don�t think it�s worthwhile for Taiwan to invest too much tbh. In what scenario does Taiwan win on the battlefield without the island and/or world being destroyed?

While true that's also a very diplomatic way to describe their role as canaries in the coal mine, or bullet catchers, or meat in the sandwich.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 21:05

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

overpaying for wunderwaffes from american boneyards will solve this

# ? Nov 14, 2022 22:42

sullat: Jan 9, 2012

Isentropy posted:

Some of the best books are written by spooks. Edward Luttwaks Coup D'état, written about 1969, describes several key characteristics of how the CIA thinks about how a country can be overthrown and correctly identified Portugal as a country that would be easy to be overthrown.

Although their president* at the time was in a worse off state than Biden.

Yeah sometimes some wild stuff gets past the censors. I read one book by an ex-CIA spook where he casually tells an anecdote about how he tried to assassinate Laurent Kabila on behalf of Mobutu in like, 1970 or something.

# ? Nov 14, 2022 23:45

Facehammer: Mar 11, 2008

Alpha 1 posted:

Highlights of Taiwanese reserve training include:
- Old, worn out equipment
- Nonsensical battle plans that haven't changed in decades
- No connection between reserve training and what reservists originally did in the military
- No training in basic skills like tactics or first aid
- Not everyone getting a chance to practice shooting a gun
- People who get a chance to shoot a gun barely having any bullets

- The guns they practice with aren't sighted in correctly
- They aren't taught how to adjust the sights

# ? Nov 15, 2022 01:06

Alpha 1: Feb 17, 2012

Frosted Flake posted:

Their job is just to make invasion less worthwhile than diplomacy or to hold on until the Seventh Fleet gets there and/or a nuclear exchange begins, so I don�t think it�s worthwhile for Taiwan to invest too much tbh. In what scenario does Taiwan win on the battlefield without the island and/or world being destroyed?

Even as a diplomatic deterrent or delaying force, you'd think Taiwan would still need a credible military. A hollow military isn't going to make the Chinese reconsider war during a hypothetical diplomatic crisis, and American help isn't going to do much good if their military collapses in a week. It's even weirder that the DPP in particular isn't taking the military seriously, since you'd think they need a deterrent to backstop their politics of annoying the mainland as much as possible.

# ? Nov 15, 2022 01:54

Marzzle: Dec 1, 2004; Bursting with flavor

Facehammer posted:

- The guns they practice with aren't sighted in correctly
- They aren't taught how to adjust the sights

you'd imagine eventually it would crush everyone's morale to have no idea what to do but maybe people are happy to avoid the extra work since I think taiwan is universal service?

# ? Nov 15, 2022 01:58

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

Alpha 1 posted:

Even as a diplomatic deterrent or delaying force, you'd think Taiwan would still need a credible military. A hollow military isn't going to make the Chinese reconsider war during a hypothetical diplomatic crisis, and American help isn't going to do much good if their military collapses in a week. It's even weirder that the DPP in particular isn't taking the military seriously, since you'd think they need a deterrent to backstop their politics of annoying the mainland as much as possible.

because 奴才brains are some of the best logicians around

# ? Nov 15, 2022 02:28

Real hurthling!: Sep 11, 2001

taiwan should buy some gundam

# ? Nov 15, 2022 03:00

Mandoric: Mar 15, 2003

Real hurthling! posted:

taiwan should buy some gundam

Please, no. When the air raid sirens go off and I know I'm about to die, I don't want my last thoughts to be an intrusive "bwee bee bwoo, bwee bwuh buh *serious older Japanese man voice* ガンダム、台中に立つ"

# ? Nov 15, 2022 03:33

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Mandoric posted:

Please, no. When the air raid sirens go off and I know I'm about to die, I don't want my last thoughts to be an intrusive "bwee bee bwoo, bwee bwuh buh *serious older Japanese man voice* ガンダム、台中に立つ"

Absolutely. You want your last throughts to be the expensive automated japanese smart toilet voiceover your neighbor has hooked up to their hi-fi system.

# ? Nov 15, 2022 07:43

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://twitter.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1591686736425680896

china edging in on being a merchant of death too

# ? Nov 15, 2022 07:46

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Spydell_finance posted:

[ Album ]
Make America Great Again. Trump's populist slogan in the 2016 election campaign was to "sovereignize" the real economy and reindustrialize (move industry back to the United States).

It failed; the trend reversal did not happen. The share of manufacturing in the U.S. economy in Q3 2016 was 11.6%, lay in drift for 6 years and by Q2 2022 the share is 11.3% compared to 13.5% before the 2008 crisis.

A more pronounced trend in the share of industrial production excluding the production of computers and components. In Q3 2016 this share in GDP was 10%, now it is 9.5%, before the 2008 crisis it was 12.3% at its peak. The trend has been steadily downward for the last 15 years.

▪️Agriculture, fisheries, forestry form only 1% of GDP.

▪️Mineral extraction accounts for 1.84% of GDP.

▪️The utilities sector (electricity, water, sewage) accounts for 1.4% of GDP.

▪️So the "real," manufacturing economy forms only 15.6% of the U.S. economy, and excluding computer and parts production, 13.8%

The accelerated decline began in Q3 2020 and continues to the current moment on the expansionary trajectory of the digital economy.

The U.S. is a typical post-industrial model of the economy in the terminal stage. Resources are spent not on creating real-material value added within the U.S., but on controlling and creating technology, supply chains, financial flows and manufacturing capacity around the world.

To create industry inside the U.S., Americans need to compete with Asian workers in terms of income and productivity, which is impossible.

Technology and imperial status make it possible to create a society of parasites (literally), where a small part of the population creates technology and controls the expansion of technology, while the bulk of society enjoys the benefits of civilization.

Therefore, the U.S. will not give up the power of the dollar and its dominance, because this would mean the death of the former construction of the world order. Abandonment can only be forced.
*** Translated with https://www.deepl.com/Translator (free version) ***

_{(from t.me/spydell_finance/2249, via tgsa)}

back to the thread topic: usa real economy number is still going down and down

# ? Nov 15, 2022 09:28

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Danann posted:

back to the thread topic: usa real economy number is still going down and down

What goes up must go down :toot:

# ? Nov 15, 2022 10:42

Real hurthling!: Sep 11, 2001

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1591686736425680896

china edging in on being a merchant of death too

what percent of others is israel?

# ? Nov 15, 2022 12:13

Gripweed: Nov 8, 2018

Rutibex posted:

if china wants taiwan it would be a really bad idea for them to resist. the US isn't coming to help and they are for sure 100% going to lose. so really it doesn't matter if they do the drills properly

It's like when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan just to piss everyone off, and China responded by doing "military exercises" just to demonstrate that it's so easy for them to blockade Taiwan they could do it and make it look like an accident.

# ? Nov 15, 2022 14:34

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Gripweed posted:

It's like when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan just to piss everyone off, and China responded by doing "military exercises" just to demonstrate that it's so easy for them to blockade Taiwan they could do it and make it look like an accident.

At the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if the US used "Ukrainian tactics" in Taiwan to try to radicalize the population and keep pressure on the Taipei not to negotiation no matter the cost. It is also a good question if push comes to shove, would the PLAN be willing to hold a blockade of the course of weeks/months and take the counter-response in the form of sanctions.

I think the PLAN has the military advantage, but the question is if Beijing would actually waffle on the issue if it gets messy.

# ? Nov 15, 2022 14:39

Fell Mood: Jul 2, 2022; A terrible Fell look!

Is it even possible to sanction China?

# ? Nov 15, 2022 15:54

Gripweed: Nov 8, 2018

Fell Mood posted:

Is it even possible to sanction China?

They could do targeted sanctions at Chinese government officials, essentially just stealing any assets they have in America or Europe. It would accomplish literally nothing.

But yeah broadbased economic sanctions against China would essentially just be turning the global economy off.

# ? Nov 15, 2022 16:03