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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592598645781979137
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Nov 15, 2022 20:29
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Tevery Best posted:Russia, meanwhile, not only variably denies, defends, or outright praises the atrocities it committed in that same conflict Literally most NATO and EU states do this. It doesn't matter. Opinions will reflect what the political need is.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:30
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here's hoping that's it
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Nov 15, 2022 20:31
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Which has a ground attack mode that Russia has been using. Could air defense even leave a gaping hole like that?
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Nov 15, 2022 20:31
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So it could have been a S300 that Russia uses in the ground to ground role (which I believe are incredibly inaccurate as they weren't really designed for that) or a Ukrainian S300 that went off course trying to down a Russian missile. Which is not unheard of.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:32
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What’s Russia’s response gonna be? Are we gonna get so much as an “oops, sorry”?
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Nov 15, 2022 20:33
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S-300 range isn't really long enough for it to be russian if it is an S-300, though i'm not sure how that picture is close to what that looks like.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:33
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Charliegrs posted:So it could have been a S300 that Russia uses in the ground to ground role (which I believe are incredibly inaccurate as they weren't really designed for that) or a Ukrainian S300 that went off course trying to down a Russian missile. Which is not unheard of. Ukraine will claim the former, Russia will claim the latter.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:33
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FishBulbia posted:Which has a ground attack mode that Russia has been using. The range of the strike might tell us which it was, but it certainly muddies the water as to what happened
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Nov 15, 2022 20:33
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Could the rocket stage of that even make a blast that big though? People on twitter are claiming (probably from info obtained in rear end) that the crater is too deep
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Nov 15, 2022 20:33
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some s300s have up to 150kg warheads so yes. it's also a 1500kg missile moving at very high speed bigger question would be range Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Nov 15, 2022 |
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Nov 15, 2022 20:34
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FishBulbia posted:Which has a ground attack mode that Russia has been using. I think the interpretation is that it may be Ukrainian air defense missile that went off course.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:35
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Ghetto SuperCzar posted:S-300 range isn't really long enough for it to be russian if it is an S-300, though i'm not sure how that picture is close to what that looks like. It might have been launched from Belarus
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Nov 15, 2022 20:35
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S-300 pic is from 2020 it seems. https://twitter.com/ain92ru/status/1314296230462320645
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Nov 15, 2022 20:36
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I don't know if NATO's credibility is going to be seriously threatened by failing to go to war over a most-probably-accidental missile that killed two people. If it happens again then yeah, the probabilities start getting increasingly fuzzy, but for now some combination of diplomatic assurances that this will absolutely not happen again and defensive military measures to shoot down further missiles should demonstrate that NATO is taking this seriously while maintaining a level of proportionate response.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:37
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Dandywalken posted:S-300 pic is from 2020 it seems. that was being posted as a reference pic for s300 wreckage
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Nov 15, 2022 20:38
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Dandywalken posted:S-300 pic is from 2020 it seems. Two photos out there - the one in these tweets is a daytime pic, but the other one is nighttime and matches the weather more.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:38
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Night time pic of the engine fragment? Or is there more
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Nov 15, 2022 20:41
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Dandywalken posted:Night time pic of the engine fragment? Or is there more https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592598645781979137?s=46&t=qD0Dca3eiHoILU_KagEOjQ
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Nov 15, 2022 20:42
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Dandywalken posted:Night time pic of the engine fragment? Or is there more The night time image is the only one of the missile that I've seen
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Nov 15, 2022 20:43
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And here in lies the problem with Twitter investigations.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:46
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I think what’s highly unusual here is the fact it was two missiles, at least from what’s reported. Usually mishaps like this are limited to a single missile. Photos so far show one crater. It could be there was one missile with a secondary explosion. Two would be very unusual.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:46
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Mokotow posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592598645781979137?s=46&t=qD0Dca3eiHoILU_KagEOjQ Is the right not the reference pic and left the claimed part at site, or am I misunderstanding. Im trying to determine if the left pic is the only one so far.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:46
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Really hope that Poland keeps a cool head over this
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Nov 15, 2022 20:48
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Dandywalken posted:Is the right not the reference pic and left the claimed part at site, or am I misunderstanding. Im trying to determine if the left pic is the only one so far. Indeed the left one is the only one I’ve seen so far people agreeing is from today.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:48
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Mokotow posted:https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592598645781979137?s=46&t=qD0Dca3eiHoILU_KagEOjQ again, that's literally a reference image being posted for comparison
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Nov 15, 2022 20:49
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Salisbury is proof that gently caress all will happen. Yeah I think talks of Article 5 is a little amusing given that Russia has been killing civilians in the streets of various European capitals for 20 years and we've done nothing about that. Hell they blew up an ammunition dump in Czechia and we sort of just shrugged. But now!!!!
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Nov 15, 2022 20:51
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Dandywalken posted:Is the right not the reference pic and left the claimed part at site, or am I misunderstanding. Im trying to determine if the left pic is the only one so far. The left one is the picture that's of interest - it was already getting dark when they apparently fell (3:30pm, 5 hours ago), and the news with pictures started leaking in 3 hours later still.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:52
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Two missiles lends credence to this being stray air defense missiles. You'd fire two at a high-risk target.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:52
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Owling Howl posted:Yeah I think talks of Article 5 is a little amusing given that Russia has been killing civilians in the streets of various European capitals for 20 years and we've done nothing about that. Hell they blew up an ammunition dump in Czechia and we sort of just shrugged. Isn't step 1 of Article 5 Poland actually invoking it? Which I suppose they could do but it seems likely they won't want to at this time.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:55
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I’ll echo what the Polish retired general Koziej just said on the news, that the most likely thing to happen is Poland extending it’s missile defence over western Ukraine by stationing air defence on the border. That area could easily stretch a few hundred kilometers east.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:56
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Griefor posted:Isn't step 1 of Article 5 Poland actually invoking it? Which I suppose they could do but it seems likely they won't want to at this time. It would probably be more then this for Article 5 to be invoked - probably Russia owning up to it and the attack being targeted on major military or civilian infrastructure. As it stands, it’s a tractor in a field.
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Nov 15, 2022 20:58
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592606786544365571
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Nov 15, 2022 20:58
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Tevery Best posted:People don't hate Germany anymore because Germany has spent the past seventy five years excising that which made them hated. Its political system, its society, its culture are all firmly against the crimes and atrocities Germany committed in World War II, against the ideology that enabled those atrocities, and against anyone who would defend or support them. Anybody who's somebody in Germany rejects and condemns those atrocities, and the system has safeguards in it to stop anything similar from happening. For that reason, people are confident when Germans show contrition and regret that they mean it, and that a return to the dark times is unlikely. Fair to point out that a big reason Germany changed so much was because its enemies killed and jailed everyone responsible for the crimes. That just won't happen with Russia.
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Nov 15, 2022 21:03
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May have been remains of a missile shot down by UA air-defense missile...quote:Mariusz Gierszewski, the reporter for Poland’s ZET Radio who initially wrote that stray Russian rockets had hit Poland, tweeted an update that remains of a shot-down rocket likely hit eastern Poland. Source: Guardian Updates pages
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Nov 15, 2022 21:03
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We'll probably need to wait a bit to see what it actually is. Not going to end in nuking russia of course but I don't se how killing civilians can also be just 
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Nov 15, 2022 21:05
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Russia shot down an entire airliner full of civilians and nothing happened.
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Nov 15, 2022 21:05
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Popete posted:Russia shot down an entire airliner full of civilians and nothing happened. Circumstances change. Do you think nothing would happen if Russia shot down a civilian airliner today?
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Nov 15, 2022 21:09
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It seems like "a cylinder with rivet holes in it" isn't the easiest part of a missile to ID https://twitter.com/OAggregation/status/1592609641003126784 US seems to think it's Russia though https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592593237902036992
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Nov 15, 2022 21:10
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Does it make a difference if the Russian missile flying over NATO airspace was caught by air defense, fell and killed 2 people vs the missile actually detonating and hitting the people?
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